Here it is folks, the first official Bubble Watch of the 2011-2012 season.  A few things have become clear after only a very short time: the only legitimate at-large candidate in the CAA is VCU, the Pac-12 blows, and Virginia Tech is in great shape for an at-large.  Just kidding - they're right on the bubble where they belong. There will be plenty of movement in the coming weeks, so many of the teams you see here today will end up falling off the face of the Earth. 

This year, you need to be in the top 100 of the RPI to be considered - that means you, crappy BCS conference teams with inflated records.  Also, you need to have a winning record overall even if your RPI and strength of schedule is outstanding - that means you, Long Beach State.

ACC

Locks: Duke, North Carolina

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Virginia Tech (11-3, 0-0 RPI 37); Virginia (12-1, 0-0 RPI 66); NC State (10-4, 0-0 RPI 54); 

Treading Water: Miami (8-4, 0-0 RPI 64); Florida State (8-5, 0-0RPI 76)

Atlantic 10

Locks: None

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Xavier (9-4, 0-0); Temple (9-3, 0-0 RPI 25); Dayton (10-4, 0-0 RPI 35); St. Joseph’s (10-4, 0-0 RPI 38);  St. Louis (11-2, 0-0 RPI 60); 

Treading Water: Massachusetts (11-3, 0-0 RPI 79)

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Connecticut, Seton Hall

Near Locks: Marquette (11-2, 0-0 RPI 21)

Bubble: West Virginia (10-4, 1-1 RPI 27)

Treading Water: Pittsburgh (11-3, 0-1 RPI 74)

Big Ten

Locks: Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Wisconsin (12-3, 1-1 RPI 51); Minnesota (12-2, 0-1 RPI 18); Illinois (12-3, 1-1 RPI 22); Northwestern (10-3, 0-1 RPI 34); Purdue (12-3, 2-0 RPI 43); Michigan (10-2, 1-0 RPI 55)

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks: Missouri, Baylor

Near Locks: Kansas State (11-1, 0-0 RPI 31); Kansas (10-3, 0-0 RPI 52)

Bubble: Texas (10-3, 0-0 RPI 72)

Treading Water: Oklahoma (10-2, 0-0 RPI 57); Iowa State (10-3, 0-0 RPI 77)

Conference USA

Locks: None

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Southern Miss (11-2, 0-0 RPI 17); Memphis (8-5, 0-0 RPI 38); Marshall (8-4, 0-0 RPI 74); UCF (9-3, 0-0 RPI 95)

Treading Water: None

Missouri Valley

Locks: None

Near Locks: Creighton (11-2, 1-1 RPI 21)

Bubble: Northern Iowa (9-4, 0-2 RPI 24); Wichita State (9-3, 1-1 RPI 28); Missouri State (8-5, 2-0 RPI 60); (9-3, 1-1 RPI 62)

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks: UNLV

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Colorado State (9-4, 0-0 RPI 36); San Diego State (11-2, 0-0 RPI 45); New Mexico (11-2, 0-0 RPI 49)

Treading Water: None

PAC-12

Locks: None

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Arizona (10-4, 1-0 RPI 46); California (12-3, 2-0 RPI 56); Stanford (12-2, 2-0 RPI 82)

Treading Water: Oregon (10-4, 1-1 RPI 79); Washington (8-5, 2-0 RPI 83)

SEC

Locks: Kentucky

Near Locks: Vanderbilt (9-4, 0-0 RPI 31); Alabama (11-3, 0-0 RPI 22)

Bubble: Florida (11-3, 0-0 RPI 53); Mississippi (9-4, 0-0 RPI 42); Mississippi State (13-2, 0-0 RPI 49); LSU (10-3, 0-0 RPI 67)

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks: Gonzaga

Near Locks:  St. Mary’s (11-2, 2-0 RPI 23)

Bubble: BYU (10-4, 1-1 RPI 64)

Treading Water: None

Others

Locks: Murray State, Harvard

Near Locks: None

Bubble: VCU (10-3, 1-0 CAA RPI 66); Oral Roberts (11-4, 3-0 Summit RPI 68); Iona (10-3, 2-0 MAAC RPI 30); Davidson (7-4, 0-0 SoCon RPI 34); Wagner (10-3, 1-1 NEC RPI 48); Cleveland State (11-3, 2-1 Horizon RPI 63)

Treading Water: Kent State (9-3, 0-0 MAC RPI 84); Belmont (8-5, 2-0 A-Sun RPI 72); Middle Tennessee State (12-2, 2-0 Sun Belt RPI 80); Norfolk State (9-4, 2-0 MEAC RPI 51); Lamar (7-5, 0-0 Southland RPI 45) 

 

Boston College

Our newest feature on TourneyBubble is Dead in the Water, where we will periodically lay to rest the at-large hopes of major conference teams.

Good God, man.  The earliest, easiest pick to eliminate from at-large consideration is Boston College.  Steve Donahoe replaced Al Skinner two years ago (Skinner pictured below)

 

and his second year at the helm has been an abject disaster. They currently sport a terrible 3-7 record (Their best win? Stony Brook!) and an atrocious RPI of 248.  Even with massive roster turnover, the Eagles have no excuse for some of their losses.  A 22 point loss at Holy Cross may be the worst of all, but that title could also go to a 14 point home loss to a 4-6 Boston University team.  With five sub-100 losses to their credit, and no quality wins outside of Harvard available in their nonconference slate, Boston College is done.

A little bit of a late start on this year's Mid Major Preview/Predictions, so instead of a preview, we are just going to go ahead and call it a "Mid Major Observation". 

This year, however, those teams have suffered some key losses to teams like Vermont, Florida Int., Florida Atlantic, Seton Hall and Ga Tech, none of which are likely NCAA tourney teams. When you take into account the only other CAA team that looked like it had a chance, Drexel, completely crapping the bed, it is pretty safe to assume at this point that the CAA will revert back to it's old form as a 1 big league. Now that's not to say ODU, VCU and GMU might not be playing solid basketball by the end of the year and even be able to once again pull an upset off as a 11 or 12 seed in the NCAA tourney, it's just saying that because of the overall lack of quality of CAA OOC win's so far this season, an at-large just isn't in the cards this year.

Where an at-large is likely, however, where it didn't happen last year, is in the Missouri Valley Conference. This year, the MVC has played some very solid basketball to begin the season. Right now, Wichita State, UNI and Creighton are a combined 19-3 and all three have very good quality wins early in the season. OOC win's over UNLV, San Diego State and @ODU are all marquee caliber wins that will look very solid by the end of the year. But what really helps the MVC is that right now, only 2 teams in the entire league have losing records, Bradley and Southern Illinois and Bradley is only 3-4. The MVC is a combined 46-23.

A 67% win/loss record is amazing for a mid-major league, especially considering the MVC has played some damn tough games thus far. If the MVC doesn't get at least 2 teams this year, especially with the CAA being a 1 bid league, it will end up being a travesty. If Creighton doesn't win the MVC tourney, I think by the end of the season it will be a lock that at least 2, possibly 3 teams get in.

The other two potential at-large teams from conference that normally never get 2 bids are Iona and Harvard. I've watched both of these squads play several times and they are VERY impressive basketball teams. Iona has a single loss thus far this year, to a very good Purdue team, by a single point on a neutral court in a game in which Iona had a 2 point lead with 30 seconds left. While right now they lack a "marquee win", a 26 point win over Maryland and a 2ot win over St. Joe's will both be decent rpi wins by the end of the year. They have a 4 game stretch coming up where they play @ 6-1 Denver, @ 5-1 Marshall and @ 6-2 Richmond followed by another tough road game at Vermont. If they manage to go 3-1 during that stretch and put up a very good conference record in a fairly weak MAAC this year, they could very well be an at-large team by the end of the season. Scott Machado, Michael Glover, Momo Jones and company will be a VERY tough out in the NCAA tourney. 

The other team from a usually 1 bid conference to keep an eye on is Harvard. The Crimson are 8-0 so far this season and have some quality neutral court wins over Florida State and Central Florida. They have a HUGE matchup coming up against UCONN on the road. Win that and they are pretty much a lock for a top 25 ranking and an at-large bid should they need it, but I don't see any way they don't win the Ivy league going away. They are legit and should very well be fighting for a 6 or 7 seed by the end of the year, possibly even higher. Tommy Amaker has a big, strong and athletic squad that has big time potential in the NCAA tourney. 

The other team I wanted to mention here is a Horizon League team, but no, it's absolutely not the one you are thinking. While Butler has really struggled thus far this year after losing Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard, the Cleveland State Vikings have flourished with their ace player, Norris Cole, having moved on. Butler is currently 4-4 and pretty much out of contention for an at-large, but Cleveland State is 8-1 with a HUGE 13 point victory @Vanderbilt that will be a big time marquee win at the end of the season. They also have a win on a neutral court over Boston Universtiry (solid win) and a huge win @ MAC favorite Kent State. Vandy and Kent State are big time resume building wins. They only have 1 loss thus far, a neutral court setback against Hofstra, a team that could end up being half way decent in the CAA by the end of the year. In order for Cleveland State to garner a potential at-large bid later in the year should they need it, I think they need to win a potentially tricky road game @ South Florida, win the Horizon regular season and split at least 1 or 2 games against Butler, a team that has been a tough nut for them to crack most years. Do that and Cleveland State could be dancing this year.

Well that just about wraps up the mid-major preview. There are some other mid-majors you should all keep your eye on this year as well, maybe not at-large caliber teams, but certainly teams that should they win their conference tourney and make the NCAA tournament, said teams would absolutely be capable of winning a game or two and doing some damage to your NCAA tourney bracket. Some teams to keep an eye on this year are Belmont (a "usual suspect" with an entire squad full of 3 point shooters), the aforementioned Kent State (rough and tumble squad that won at West Va. and is also capable of shooting the 3), St. Mary's (they can always pull an upset with their 3 point shooting) and a real darkhorse for mid-major of the year this season, Murray State. The Racers have solid wins already over San Francisco and Southern Miss on a neutral court and a great blowout win over Dayton. Their next game is a HUGE test @ Memphis and it would give them a big time road/marquee victory they could point towards come NCAA tourney selection show time. An 8-0 start thus far, combined with that Memphis win, would be a big step. The definitely need that win though because after that game, there isn't much heft left on the schedule. Regardless, watch out for Murray State this year and in the NCAA tourney should they make it because Isaac Cannon is one of the best players you've probably never heard of. He's averaging 20 a game, shooting 52% from the field and an incredible 51% from behind the arc (19-36)! The Racers will absolutely surprise someone in the NCAA tourney and very well could surprise Memphis on the road this week.

Enjoy the season and keep an eye on what is a very solid "Mid-Major" NCAA tournament bubble field this year! 

Basketball a plenty over the next couple of days! Enjoy your Thanksgiving and remember that somewhere, somehow, Bill Self is crying about a phantom foul call into his Thanksgiving turkey and for that, we should all be thankful.

Enjoy the next few days of basketball, we will have a full write-up on the weekends games starting on Monday.

Happy Thanksgiving! 

Bad News: Colorado (Pac 12) and Nebraska (Big Ten) bolted the conference.
Good News: They both sucked, so the Big 12 essentially lost nothing. 

On to the picks...

 Texas
Coach Rick Barnes said farewell to pretty much every contributor besides guard J'Covan Brown.  Nonetheless, a strong recruiting class should be enough to push the young Longhorns into the NCAA Tournament.
Verdict: 8 seed

 Texas A&M
The Aggies lost coach Mark Turgeon to Maryland, but return enough defensive talent to extend their streak of six consecutive NCAA bids.  Dash Harris leads the backcourt while Khris Middleton and David Loubeau control the paint.  New coach Billy Kennedy's squad will be solid enough to rise above the rest of the iffy Big 12 bubblers.
Verdict: 7 seed

 Oklahoma State
LeBryan Nash is a soon-to-be star, and he will joing a veteran backcourt featuring the diminutive Keiton Page and reliable Jean-Paul Olukemi.  How quickly Nash adjusts to the college game will determine whether the Cowboys contend for a bid.
Verdict: Treading Water

 Oklahoma
The Sooners said goodbye to Jeff Capel and hello to one of the mose underrated coaches in America, Lon Kruger.  The backcourt has experience, but can they rebound well enough to stay in the mix?  They may have to wait one more year for Kruger to get them back to the Big Dance.
Verdict: Next Four Out

 Kansas State
I love Frank Martin.  He needs to be a part of March Madness.  Rodney McGruder returns for the Wildcats, who bring back just enough to slip into the tournament.  In Frank we trust.
Verdict: 9 or 10 seed

Everyone in sports journalism seems to have their pet cause: for Peter King, it was getting Ed Sabol into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, or Rick Reilly's quest to get you to roll your eyes and throw up simultaneously while writing the biggest piece of contrived, lame, cornball garbage you've ever read.  But without fail, every college hoops writer's pet cause is to have Northwestern make the NCAA Tournament.

You probably know by now that Northwestern has never made the NCAA Tournament.  You hear it fifty times a season - "poor guys from Evanston have never made it blah blah boohoohoo!"  To that I say - who cares?  Seriously, who cares?  Northwestern isn't lacking for success in the private sector, as it is one of the finest schools in the country and has produced some of the brightest minds in the business world.  Their football team made the Rose Bowl fifteen years ago, and makes a bowl every other year.  They aren't exactly starving for success.  They aren't really underdogs in sports or in life.  So who cares if they don't make the tournament again?  Shut up and wish for something worthwhile.

 Purdue
Robbie Hummel returns for his 37th season for the Boilermakers, who had things all set up for a 2010-11 NCAA title run before he went down with a preseason knee injury.  Coach Matt Painter must take a long list of role players and the still-recovering Hummel and mold them into a contender despite the loss of All-Americans E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, but he has the skills needed to guide the Boilers into the NCAA Tournament.
Verdict: 8 seed

 Michigan State
A lackluster 2010-11 season leaves Tom Izzo and the Spartans at a crossroads: will they revert back to their status as annual Final Four contenders, or will their brutal early-season schedule (including games with North Carolina and Duke) relegate them back to being a bubble team?  Draymond Green is a nice player, but he will need help to get the Spartans off the bubble and safely into the tournament.
Verdict: 10 or 11 seed

 Indiana
Well Hello, Hoosiers.  Good to see you.  This marks the first time that Indiana will grace TourneyBubble with their presence, as they have been absolutely awful for the past three years.  Versatile freshman Cody Zeller joins Christian Watford, Verdell Jones III and Jordan Hulls in their quest to bring coach Tom Crean a winner.  Not to discount the rebuilding job Crean inherited after Kelvin Sampson left the program in ruins, but the Hoosier faithful are losing patience and this team has too much talent not to contend for an NCAA bid.
Verdict: 10 or 11 seed

 Northwestern
Forward John Shurna and guard Michael Thompson return for coach Bill Carmody, and it appears to be an NCAA-or-Bust season for the Wildcats.  While they have proven that they can score (especially from the outside), their hopes depend on how well they can defend and rebound in a physical conference.
Verdict: Last Four In 

 Illinois
The Illini underachieved last year but still parlayed an early-season victory over North Carolina into an NCAA bid.  Coach Bruce Weber has two returning contributors in the backcourt (Brandon Paul and DJ Williams), who must mix with a highly-regarded recruiting class in order to rise above the middle of the Big Ten pack and make a case for an at-large.  Don't bet on it.
Verdict: Treading Water

 Minnesota
No team flamed out as spectacularly as the Golden Gophers last year, who saw a promising November and December dissolve into a 6-12 league mark.  They were a lock for the tournament as late as February, likley headed to a top-7 seed when a litany of off the court issues and inconsistent play sealed their fate.  The frontcourt is fine for coach Tubby Smith with Ralph Sampson III and Trevor Mbawke back for their senior seasons, but they will need some sort of contribution from the guards to make their way into the NCAA field.
Verdict: Next Four Out