We here at Tourneybubble are in complete agreement, the selection committee once again did a terrible job despite all the praise from the talking heads on ESPN and CBS. First, it starts with their treatment of mid-majors. The decision of the selection committee to do a "last four out" list this year and put 3 mid-majors on it his absurd and nothing but a garbage bit of lip service to cover up their tracks. It is our opinion that Drexel and Oral Roberts were not, in fact, a couple spots out. They were only listed there to try and cover up the fact that they were left out again and they want it to seem like they were given serious consideration. Sorry, we aren't buying it. If they did in fact give it serious consideration, there is no freaking chance they could put South Florida in over Drexel. Sorry, that is just our opinion on the matter. 

Secondly, we believe in the committee's eyes, they think they did put two "mid majors" in by putting in BYU and Iona. BYU is not a mid-major. Yes, they moved to the WCC conference, but they just simply do not qualify as a mid-major in our opinion. So of the last 8 teams into the tournament, that leaves exactly one mid-major, Iona. At the very least, I am of the opinion they put Iona into the tournament because they have two legitimate pro prospects in Machado and Momo Jones and the NBA scouts want to see how they will do in March. Drexel was left out because they have no pro prospects at all for the next 2 years. Same with Oral Roberts. They back doored Iona in because they want to keep the NBA happy and because Iona serves more of a purpose than another mid-major. Maybe that isn't the case, but you can't argue that 7 of the last 8 spots went to non mid-major teams. 

Next, we think the selection committee shows its true colors when it yet again matches up two very dangerous mid-major teams in the first round. VCU and Wichita State are both teams capable for making big runs this year. Much like last year when the committee matched up Old Dominion and Butler in the first round, one very capable team is going home in the first round this year because of the garbage mid vs. mid matchups the selection committee has come up with. And going back several years, you can list quite a few of these matchups that have occured. It's the same stupid junk every year from the people who are supposed to know college basketball.

Finally, Creighton got absolutely screwed. Giving them an 8 seed and forcing them to play UNC in the second round is just a ridiculous matchup the committee "put together" because Harrison Barnes and Doug McDermott were high school teammates. Creighton was in the top 25 a large portion of the year and won their conference tourney. They are absolutely a sweet 16 team this year, maybe better, if they were given the correct seeding which would be a 6 or a 7 seed in our opinion. But in typical committee fashion, they underseed a great mid-major and screw them by forcing them to play a 1 seed in the second round.

The funny thing is, Creighton could absolutely beat UNC with Doug McDermott and Greg Etchinique inside matching up against Henson and Zeller. They have the size and speed to stay with UNC. The problem is, and you can see this coming from outer space, the refs will have called 2 fouls on Etchinique by the 10 minute mark in the first half. Mark it down, it's absolutely going to happen. Creighton, on a neutral court and with actually neutral refs, could absolutely beat UNC. Hell, they still might even with all the advantages UNC is being given. But quite frankly, UNC-Creighton should not be a round of 32 matchup and it's yet another shitty job by the selection committee screwing a mid-major to the wall.

More thoughts to come, but those are the things that have us burning about the job these idiots did right now. 

That's the question we here at Tourneybubble are asking ourselves after this past weekend. In all honesty, there doesn't even appear to be 68 quality teams for the tournament this year.

Now obviously some of the conference champions that get the auto-bids will not be apart of the top 68 teams in the country, but are there even 50 worthy teams for the NCAA tourney this year? It's highly debatable. In past years we have had teams scrapping and clawing to get in, and some very good, capable teams were left out of the field. This year? If you get left out of the big dance, you can have ZERO complaints because there are hardly even enough decent teams to come up with a field. Any plans to expand the tourney past 68 need to be trashed immediately.

The biggest loser of the weekend was without a doubt, the Texas Longhorns. Texas was squarely on the bubble before this weekend, what with their 1 good OOC win at home against Temple. Just an embarrassing, embarrassing OOC schedule, particularly in light of the fact that they lost to Oregon State and NC State on a neutral court and got blown out at UNC. As I said, their only OOC road win was at a mediocre UCLA and their only good OOC win was Temple at home. Not remotely good enough. They didn't help themselves this weekend by barely squeaking by a terrible Texas Tech team in OT after 2 straight losses, one of which was to Ok St. Right now, they are 8-8 in the Big 12, but they have exactly TWO in conference wins over tournament teams, both close wins at home over Iowa State and Kansas State. They have a must win on Wed. against Oklahoma at home and then in our opinion, they need to beat Kansas on the road to get an at-large. Without that, their best win of the season on the road would remain UCLA. Is that the resume of a bubble team? Not in our opinion. OF course, the NCAA will probably backdoor them in because of the lack of other quality teams and because they are freaking Texas, but right now, we don't think what they have done is good enough. They have work to do in the Big 12 Tourney if they don't go 2-0 this week.

Next up on the loser list is NC State. The Wolfpack have lost 4 in a row after this weekend's defeat at the hands of non-tourney Clemson. Now granted, 3 of the last 4 games have been against Duke, Florida State and UNC, the 3 best teams in the country, which in and of itself wouldn't hurt them, but when you follow up loses to those 3 teams, 2 of which were at home, with a loss to Clemson, people start to ask questions. Namely, who HAVE you beat? The answer to that question is pretty ugly for NC State. To be fair to the Wolfpack, they did play a fairly tough OOC schedule. They also failed to beat any of the really tough teams they played. Texas on a neutral court, another bubble team, was their best OOC win. They lost to Vandy, Stanford, Indiana and Syracuse. Again, a tough slate, but they didn't win any of the big ones other than Texas. Their next best OOC win was UNC-Asheville at home. Now, I know some of you are saying "man, that's terrible", but UNC-Asheville isn't that bad. 21-9, 16-2 and in first place in a grantedly terrible Big South.

The real problem for NC State is who they have beaten in the ACC. Or rather, who they haven't. They haven't beaten a ranked team this year despite a ton of opportunities. Their two best ACC wins are @ Miami and Maryland at home. So in other words, they might not have beaten an NCAA tourney team yet this year. Their home loss to Ga Tech by double digits is just brutal. Their next two games are at home against Miami and @VT. If they don't go 2-0, they are going to have to do some serious work in the ACC tourney or they will be in big time trouble.

Yet another team that is playing itself out of the tournament is West Virginia. WVU's number's look great. Top 50 rpi, top 10 strength of schedule. Basically a lock right? To quote that idiot Lee Corson, "not so fast my friend!". The Mountaineers have lost seven of their last 9 games. Not only that, but two of those losses were just brutal, by 16 points at St. Johns and a loss at home to Pitt in the backyard brawl. Losing 7 of 9 is bad, but having an overall losing record in your conference, even a conference as tough as the Big East, is just as bad. Thankfully for WVU, their next two games are both very winnable. They have an absolutely stone cold must win at home against Depaul and then what essentially boils down to a potential "at-large play-in game" between themselves and South Florida on the road. They lose that game, the best they can finish in the Big East regular season is 8-10. They'd also most likely end up 10th in their conference.

The Mountaineers did most of their heavywork OOC, where they have big time wins over Akron, Oral Roberts, Kansas State and Miami. They were tripped up OOC against Kent State at home and Miss St., but those are both very good teams. They also had a 2 point neutral court loss to Baylor in OT, which again, didn't hurt them at all. In the Big East however, they have won 2 total games out of the numerous, numerous chances they have had against NCAA tourney teams. Both wins came at home, beating Georgetown and Cincinatti. The thing that should really frighten every WVU fan is that they have ZERO good road wins this year. Not a single top 75 road win. The best road win they have this entire season is @ Pittsburgh, who is 15-14 overall. Yikes. So again, right now we think WVU is probably in just because of how weak the bubble is, but honestly, they could easily play themselves out this coming week. They need to win at South Florida so they can actually have one road win over a team that is a borderline NCAA tourney. The selection committee has stated in the past that road wins are important for NCAA tourney at-larges, it was often cited as a reason why VCU got in last year because of their road wins over ODU and Wichita State last year. If the Mountaineers want to get in, they would do well to finally win a good road game at USF. Or at the very least go on a deep run in the Big East tourney.

The next two teams we will mash together, Seton Hall and South Florida. We here at tourneybubble absolutely DEPLORE the idea of the Big East getting 10 teams in. When the 10th place team from the Big East gets in over a regular season champ from a league like the CAA like Drexel or say Oral Roberts from the Summitt, it absolutely drives us insane. No 10th place team is EVER worthy of an at-large. So with that in mind, how do you judge a team like South Florida??? They are currently tied for fourth in the extremely tough Big East which pretty much ANY year would be good enough for an automatic at-large, but the Bulls were pretty much awful OOC and haven't beaten ANY of the top Big East teams. They have benefitted immensely from the unbalanced Big East schedule and as such, it is honestly conceivable that the 4th place team in the Big East USF, gets left out for the 10th place team in West Virginia. Just a crazy, crazy year in the Big East.

The Bulls were, in the words of Sir Charles "just turrrrrible" OOC. They lost to two non-tourney teams in ODU and Penn St. in an early season tourney, lost to a pretty bad Auburn team and got absolutely crushed by Kansas and another bubble team, VCU. Their best OOC win was a home win over a quickly fading Cleveland State that will also not make the NCAA tourney. They are an impressive 11-5 in the Big East, but when you take a closer look at those numbers, it really starts to break down. They have 2 total wins, ALL SEASON LONG, over NCAA tourney teams. Now for the really crazy part. They were both ONE POINT home victories! Seton Hall and Cincy are both, most likely, NCAA tourney teams. But neither are big time marquee wins. And again, their best road win this season is at Pitt. The numbers just aren't there, despite their impressive Big East conference record. Their remaining games are at Louisville and at home to West Virginia. Hate to sound like a broken record, but they need to win at least 1 of those and would really do themselves a big favor by winning both. They lose both and their only path to the tourney is a run to the Big East Tourney Final.

As for Seton Hall, the Pirates have a much more complete resume. Where as South Florida got smoked by VCU, the Pirates dominated VCU on a neutral court. They also had a solid neutral court win against a borderline NCAA tourney team in St. Joe's,  beat the same Auburn team that South Florida lost to by 22 and had a very impressive OOC road win at Dayton. Credit to them for taking the game and even more credit to them for winning it in a tough place to play. Yes,
Saturday's brutal loss to Rutgers hurt them. Yes, they had a tough 6 game losing streak earlier this season in the Big East. But whereas South Florida has played a ridiculously easy conference schedule, Seton Hall's road has been one of the toughest conference schedules in the country, if not THE toughest.

During the 6 game losing streak, 3 of the losses were to teams currently in the top 25, the other two were to potential NCAA tourney teams South Florida and UConn and the only real questionable loss was at Villanova. Seton Hall, however, has not only the quality wins OOC we mentioned earlier, they have very good in-conference victories. West Virginia at home by 19 points, UCONN at home by 12 when they were ranked number 8 in the country back in the beginning of Jan. and a home win against Georgetown by 18 points. So again, yes, the loss to Rutgers was a bad one. But should they beat Depaul in their last game of the year, they will end up 9-9 in the Big East and 20-10 overall with quite a few big time wins. Winning a game or two in the tourney would help, but right now Seton Hall is definitely in for us over some of the Big East teams ahead of them in the conference standings.

Finally, we come to some of the mid-majors. A lot has been made of the "eye test". But to us, it's a numbers game. And the real number that counts to us is seventeen. As in, Drexel has won 17 freaking games in a row. They haven't lost since a road setback against Georgia State back on the second of January. That's almost 2 straight months without losing.  They had two decent but not great road wins over Cleveland State and ODU and have very impressive home wins over VCU and GMU during that stretch. And not only have they won 17 straight, they've also won 23 of their last 24 games! 23 of 24 and 17 straight, even in a down CAA, should still be good enough to earn them an at-large, regardless of the bad early OOC portion of their schedule.

And honestly, the OOC portion wasn't THAT bad. They've lost 5 games all season long. Not one of those teams has a losing record. Delaware is 17-12, they lost that game on the road. Ga State is 20-10, against, conferene loss on the road. St. Joe's is 19-11, again, another road loss. UVA is a borderline top 25 team and it was a neutral court loss.  The real loss the critics will point too is another neutral court, early season tourney loss to Norfolk State. Now most years, this would absolutely be a bad loss. But this year? The Spartans are 20-9 and having the best season in the HISTORY of their program! They took Marquette to the wire and lost 59-57 on a neutral court after having a lead late in the game. Norfolk State also has a neutral court victory over Texas Christian in the same tourney, a team that is currently 4th in the Mountain West, ahead of possible NCAA tourney bubble team Colorado State and a team that has victories this season over UVA, Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico! 

Hell, they beat Texas Christian by 13 points! The point is, a 5 point neutral court loss to Norfolk State back in November is NOT a valid reason to keep Drexel out of the tourney. Yes, Drexel lacks big OOC wins. Heck, they lack some big in conference wins as VCU and GMU are good but not great. But can you really keep a team that has won 17 straight and 23 of 24 out in favor of a 10th team from a power conference? We say no......but we will see if the selection committee agrees. Drexel would be well advised to at least make it to Sunday in the conference tourney, but if they do make it to Monday, they'd be 27-6 with a 19 game winning streak before their last lost and with ZERO bad losses on the season. It'd be very tough to keep them out.

The final two teams on this update are both A-10 teams, Xavier and St. Joseph's. The A-10 is MUCH better than anyone realized this year. There are 6 teams in the A-10 that we think could win an NCAA tourney game. Temple is an absolute lock for a big. St. Louis, at 22-6, is a borderline lock. Their OOC schedule isn't as strong, but their 10-4 mark in the A-10 and solid list of wins should get them in the tourney with the weak bubble field. Now, the teams that could all be potential tourney teams but for obvious seasons won't all get in are UMass, Xavier, St. Joe's and Dayton. Right away, we are going to rule UMass out. The OOC portion of their schedule sucked and quite frankly, they haven't done enough in conference to get an at-large bid. They do, however, provide a pretty decent rpi win for the other potential at-large teams in the A-10.

Dayton is also most likely out. The Flyers had a very solid OOC schedule, with double digit wins over Minnesota, Alabama and Ole Miss. They also had some head scratching losses. A blow out against Murray State didn't hurt them, but a 29 point home loss to a good but not great Buffalo team is mind blowing, a very bad loss to a crappy Miami of Ohio team in OT and a tough home loss to Seton Hall. Overall, a very tough OOC schedule, one of the best in the country, with some mixed results. When Dayton really looked like a bubble team is when they took down St. Louis and Temple in the A-10 to start the season. Those two wins over NCAA tourney teams (the road win at Temple was fantastic) to start conference play really made them look like a tourney team. They were 12-4 at that point and very close to cracking the top 25. But since then, they've gone 6-6 overall in conference play and have really not done themselves any favors to make the committe stand up and take notice.

The conferene wins over Temple and St. Louis to start the season have been followed up with conference victories over LaSalle, Xavier and a 30+ point win over UMass on Saturday. Their RPI is 61 and SOS is 53. Good numbers for an at-large team. More importantly, they are 3-3 against the Top 50, which is quite good. The real problem we see is that with St. Louis and Temple being locks, and Xavier squarely on the bubble, is the NCAA tourney committee REALLY read to take 4 teams from the A-10 this year? More importantly, Dayton is currently tied for 6th with UMass in the A-10. It's questionable whether that is good enough to consider them for an at-large either. However, they have two VERY winnable games left at Richmond and at home against George Washington. Win both of those, they get to 20-10 on the year and more importantly, 10-6 in the A-10. Win a game or two in the A-10 tourney and we may very well be talking about a 4 bid Atlantic Ten Conferene.

Finally, we end this update with the enigma of all enigma's, the Xavier Musketeers. We honestly don't have any clue what to make of them. Some fantastic wins, some tough losses, a very tough schedule, third place in the tough A-10, a crazy brawl and several player suspensions. Quite an interesting year. The real question is how will the selection committee consider the games they lost after the brawl, how it affected their season and will they decide to punish them for it?

In our estimation, Xavier is an NCAA tourney team. They are currently 9-5 in the A-10 and have ZERO bad losses in conference. 4 of their 5 conference losses are on the road, @ LaSalle, @ Dayton, @ Temple and @ UMass. Not a bad loss amongst them. The one home conference loss was to a tourney team in St. Louis. The Musketeers have also played a VERY tough schedule this year.  39th toughest OOC schedule and a top 50 RPI, although just barely. The home loss by 22 to Oral Roberts (again, a potential NCAA tourney team) hurt them, but again, 4 of their best players were suspended because of the brawl. They also lost their next 2 on a neutral court in the Maui Invitational to another NCAA tourney team in Long Beach State and then a tough loss to a very mediocre Hawaii team. Tough stretch. Again, it's all about how that brawl and the aftershock is weighed. It was by far their worst stretch of the season and they really struggled to regain their form for a while after that incident. 

But, to counteract those losses, they have some VERY good wins. A road win at Vanderbilt, home wins over Purdue and Butler (although granted Butler is a shell of it's former self this year), a 23 point home blowout over Cincy in that brawl game, a win that cannot be overlooked. They also lost very tough OOC games to Gonzaga and Memphis later on in the season. In conference, however, they have failed to beat some of the other very top teams in the A-10. They haven't beaten Temple. They lost their only matchup so far against St. Louis. They would do very well to beat them in the rematch when it is played on Tuesday. They split against Dayton, but have beaten St. Bonnie and St. Joe's. So again, what do you make of them? Just one of the crazier seasons in all of college basketball, all things considered. 18-10 overall, 9-5 in the A-10, tough OOC schedule and solid RPI numbers. Plus a big old asterisk right in the middle of the season. The game at St. Louis is going to be huge. Win that and then a home "gimmie" over Charlote and they finish the regular season at 20-10, 11-5 in the A-10 and have a top 3 finish. Lose to St. Louis and they may have some work to do in the A-10 tourney.

So again, you see why we have that headline, "does anyone even want to play in the NCAA tourney this year". Some very, very shaky resumes out there, some teams that most years wouldn't have done nearly enough to get in the tournament have legit shots because of the weakness of the bubble. We'll have more updates later in the week on some of the other bubble teams in the country and don't forget, we will have our annual CAA tourney blog up and running from courtside at the CAA tourney in Richmond this weekend. Stay Tuned.

Saturday, Feb. 25th is one of the biggest days of the year in college basketball. Huge matchups between some marquee teams, a lot of the smaller conferences re wrapping their seasons up and declaring regular season champions and the bubble impact is huge.

Quite a few of the potential at-large candidates are playing in games against other potential at-large candidates. It's a big day for the bubble and a big day for us here at tourneybubble, which is why we will have a full wrap-up on the day's games, what their impact on the bubble is, who the winners and losers are and how many at-larges we think each conference will get. Of course, things are always subject to change thanks to Conference Tourney's, but regardless, you will get a full report from us here and our likely picks to get the NCAA tourney at-larges.

Stay tuned for all the bubble breakdown you can handle...... 

The Racers finally went down to defeat tonight, losing 72-68 at home to Tennessee State. Tenn St. is the second place team in the Ohio Valley Conference this year and is playing some decent ball right now, winning 6 in a row and 8 of their last 9. The reason we bring this up is, the talking heads at ESPN will SURELY get all kinds of mileage out of this loss, discussing whether the Racers deserve an at-large bid now because they lost a game to an OVC team. You can just hear idiots like Skip Bayless and Digger Phelps making the arguments now. "Well if Texas played that schedule, they'd be undefeated right now too!". It's pathetic, but it is what they do.

The fact is, Murray State gets every single team in the Valley's best shot every single time they take the floor. Someone was bound to get them and it just happened to be the second best team in the conference. It's not a "bad loss" by a long shot, they were bound to lose eventually. Now, assuredly they will drop in the polls because god forbid a mid-major lose a conference game to the next best team in the conference, but the real question is, how far will they drop? Probably upper teen's to low 20's. Makes sense right? I mean after all, they are only 23-1 now.

They should still absolutely be guaranteed a at-large birth despite the opinions of BCS talking head morons on ESPN. I wouldn't suggest them losing to many more, but that game against St. Mary's will be a tough one as the Gaels are a top 15 team as well. But that game isn't the important one. They SHOULD be able to lose that game and be fine for an at-large, the game the Racers really need to worry about is the rematch with Tenn. St. on the road in the Tigers home gym. They can't get swept by a decent but not great OVC team.

Regardless, one freaking loss is meaningless to their at-large chances despite what the morons at ESPN will undoubtedly say. The Racers are still an absolute lock as of this moment, at least according to us here at TourneyBubble. We can't wait to watch their matchup with St. Mary's on Feb. 18th, even though the luster of the "undefeated season" has now left the matchup, making it less exciting to ESPN because they can't tout that angle all show long, relentlessly beating it into the ground over the course of the game because their crack staff did very little research into a mid-major like Murray State and thus giving them nothing to talk about all game long.

Finally, as a fun little game, if you do watch the Murray State-St. Mary's game on ESPN, count the number of times they say the word undefeated. I guarantee you, it will be at least 30, probably closer to 50. The Ocho everyone! 

What an interesting year of college basketball we have seen thus far! Between Murray State's incredible run, Towson's incredible losing streak and everything in between, we've witnessed one of the more memorable 2/3's of a year we have ever seen. There really is no true "number 1"  team this year. Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina and Missouri have all looked like the cream of the crop at times, but at other times all have looked very very beatable. While we here at Tourneybubble would probably say when their roster is playing in it's entirety, Syracuse looks like the best team in the country, would ANYONE in their right mind bet on the Cuse to make it past the Elite 8 in the NCAA tourney? With Jim Boeheim's recent tourney resume? Of course not, so with the college basketball landscape being what it is, we think this might end up being the year a non-BCS team does it. Someone finally breaks down the dooe Butler kicked off the hinges by finishing the job and winning the national championship. Let's examine the possible suspects for the job.

The obvious one is Murray State. They are 21-0, just got back one of their best big men in Ivan Aska and are rolling through their albeit very weak conference. It's true they haven't beaten any big time teams during their run, but that's more of a product of not being able to play any than it is to say they wouldn't be able to do it. They are shooting 42% from the three point line as a team on the season. That statistic is ridiculous......as a TEAM, they are shooting 42%. So if they are "on" on any given night, they are nearly unbeatable. The NCAA tourney is all about matchups. If they get a few favorable matchups to kick off the NCAA tourney, watch out, because if they get hot, they will definitely be a threat to cut down the nets.

The next team up on the list is the first of two potential champions out of the Mountain West, the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs play big boy basketball, the rebound as well as any team in the country and beat you up on the boards. As if that weren't good enough, they also have a sniper in Chase Tapler (44% from behind the arc) and a do everything slasher in Jamaal Franklin. The Aztecs can beat a team in any number of ways and will absolutely be a tough out once again in the NCAA tourney, just like they were last year when they went 34-3, made it to the Sweet 16 and took eventual National Champ UConn to the wire. This year's team isn't quite as good as last year's, but then again, neither are the rest of the NCAA's top teams.

As the other team to watch out for from the Mountain West, UNLV isn't going to sneak up on anyone in the NCAA tourney after knocking off previously number 1 ranked UNC earlier this year. UNLV was very disappointing in last year's tournament, losing in the first round against a decent but not great Illinois team. This year, UNLV will be out to show that last year's performance was a fluke, as they are currently one of the top shooting teams in the country. They are not only ranked 9th in the country in points per game, they are also 3rd in assists per game and 15th in rebounding.

They also were able to get a measure of revenge by beating the Illinois team that knocked them out of they tourney last year by 16 points on a neutral court back in December. UNLV has 3 losses this year to teams with a combined record of 53-12, two of which are currently in the top 25 (Wisconsin and San Diego St.) They are a very dangerous team as we saw against UNC earlier in the year, and when those long, athletic guard/forwards of theirs get hot from behind the arc, they are nearly unbeatable.

The real difference from last year, however, has been Mike Moser. He has been an absolute beast in the post this year, averaging a double-double and 11.7 rebounds per game, which is good for third in the country. With him adding some toughness to the lineup they badly missed last year, they will be an extremely tough out for anyone in the NCAA tourney.

Now we get to the mid-major list of potential national champions, a list that actually has more teams than you might think. While quite a few BCS fans will probably laugh this list off, remember, Butler, VCU, GMU and others have shown that the mid-majors aren't nearly as far away as you might think.

First on the list, Creighton from the Missour Valley Conference. Simply put, the Blue Jays are a complete team. They have a star and a go to guy in the coach's son Doug McDermott. The guy is one of the best players in college basketball and if he played in a BCS conference, he would absolutely be an All-American this year. Hell, he might end up being one anyways. He's a 6"7 220 pound forward who can literally do anything on the basketball court. He can face you up, he can shoot the 3, he can take it to the rim and he can play with his back to the basket and kill you with post moves. If you don't double team him, you cannot stop him. He's averaging 23 points per game (good for third in the country), 8 and a half boards, 62% from the field, 50% from behind the arc and 83% at the line. He literally has no flaws in his game, his dad did a tremendous job teaching him the game.

The reason Creighton is so tough to beat is if you double team McDermott, the rest of the team can make you pay. If you though Murray State's 42% as a team was impressive, check out Creighton from behind the arc. The Blue Jays are averaging an astounding 45% from behind the three point line, the best in the ENTIRE country. They also shoot 51.4% from the field and 72% from the FT line, like we said, they are a COMPLETE team. They are 20-2 on the year and when they beat San Diego St. earlier this year, they proved they could play and beat anyone in the country. Doug McDermott Sr. is a very good coach and will have Creighton to the Sweet 16 at the very least this year, we guarantee it. And hey, once you get there, anything can happen.

Two more teams to keep an eye on are from the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga and St. Mary's are both just very very solid ballclubs. They've lost a total of 5 games between the two of them, one of which was Gonzaga's loss to St. Mary's. The Gael's have lost one game since November, and that was to a very good Baylor team on a neutral court. 

The Gaels are yet another team that uses the 3 ball as Dicky V would say, "as the great equalizer in college basketball". We know it is a trite saying, but that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't true. The Gael's attempt over 20 three pointers a game, and with snipers like Mathew Dellavedova and Clint Steindl who have incredible range and can bust a zone from anywhere on the court, they are a very tough team to guard. Randy Bennett is another mid-major coach, much like Doug McDermott Sr., who doesn't get all the national press of a Coach K or Roy Williams, but who knows the game extremely well and can coach with anyone in the country.

Last year, St. Mary's was a pretty good team who lacked toughness in the interior and struggled against physical teams. However, anyone paying close attention to the Gael's this year can see that this Gael squad has found that toughness that last year's squad lacked. Rob Jones always gave them a toughness in the paint, but too many times he had to go it alone last year as St. Mary's only real post option. While he is stll averaging a double-double for the Gael's and will remain their primary option, the big addition to this year's team has been freshman Brad Waldow. The 6"9, 250 pound center scoring in double figures in 4 of the last 6 games but more importantly, giving them rebounding and toughness. His real coming out part was when he went for 17 and 10 against Gonzaga in the Gael's big win over their conference rivals back in December. Gonzaga has a very tough front line and a freshman putting up a double double against them is extremely impressive.

With Jones and Waldow patrolling the post and the Gaels host of outside shooters, they will be yet another mid-major squad that is capable of shooting their way to another Butler type run in the NCAA tourney this year.

Joining them from the WCC will be Gonzaga, a "mid-major" by definition but one of those teams who has managed to make themselves a national player year after year. The Zags made it to the third round last year before running into the Jimmer Fredette buzzsaw, but this year's team seems to be much better rounded and should be able to make a deeper run than last year's team, which seemed to cut off it's own head with too many turnovers and the very shaky play of guard Steven Gray.

Freshmen Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell have given the Zags some much needed help in the outside shooting dept., something that seemed to elude the Bulldogs at times last year. While we here at tourney bubble like the Zags as a team that can do damage in this years tourney, we do not see them as a potential National Champion this year simply because of the fact that they have to rely too much on freshman, never a great idea in the NCAA tourney. The main reason we listed them, however, is because they do have an extremely tough big man combination in Elias Harris and Robert Sacre and given the right matchups and the ability of their guards to knock down some 3's, the Zags will be hard to take down in the NCAA tourney. They are listed here more for their potential than because we think they WILL do anything significant.

Finally, we come to one of the most underrated teams in the nation, the Harvard Crimson. While they are currently ranked #23 in the country, we here at Tourneybubble think they should be rated much higher than that. They are 18-2 on the season, with one of those losses being a shocker to Fordham and the other a tough road loss at defending national champion UConn. The Crimson are extremely well coached, Tommy Amaker has done a brilliant job, and they will no double get that Tourney win that has eluded them for so long. The real question is, how many wins will they get this year. Much like Gonzaga, the Crimson probably won't be cutting down the nets this year, but their achievements so far deserve recognition and they certainly will not be a team you want to matchup against in the NCAA tourney. Keith Wright and Kyle Casey are both skilled big men who can beat you in the post, and as one of the best passing teams in the country, the Crimson will try and outsmart any team they play against in the Big Dance.

So the above teams are our Non-BCS picks to kick down the door that Butler left open for the "also rans". There are plenty of other mids capable of making significant runs this year, teams like Wichita State, Long Beach St., Davidson, Middle Tenn. etc., but these are the teams we think have a real chance at doing something historic. The college basketball landscape lacks a true dominant team this year and because of this, the field is wide open.

Stay tuned, tomorrow is the big Bracket Buster announcement for the mid-major teams on the list like St. Mary's and Creighton, and the entire nation will get a look at these complete teams that will be capable of doing so much damage in the big dance. Once the matchups are announced, we will have complete breakdowns of all the games and what you should watch for.  

A little bit of a late start on this year's Mid Major Preview/Predictions, so instead of a preview, we are just going to go ahead and call it a "Mid Major Observation". 

This year, however, those teams have suffered some key losses to teams like Vermont, Florida Int., Florida Atlantic, Seton Hall and Ga Tech, none of which are likely NCAA tourney teams. When you take into account the only other CAA team that looked like it had a chance, Drexel, completely crapping the bed, it is pretty safe to assume at this point that the CAA will revert back to it's old form as a 1 big league. Now that's not to say ODU, VCU and GMU might not be playing solid basketball by the end of the year and even be able to once again pull an upset off as a 11 or 12 seed in the NCAA tourney, it's just saying that because of the overall lack of quality of CAA OOC win's so far this season, an at-large just isn't in the cards this year.

Where an at-large is likely, however, where it didn't happen last year, is in the Missouri Valley Conference. This year, the MVC has played some very solid basketball to begin the season. Right now, Wichita State, UNI and Creighton are a combined 19-3 and all three have very good quality wins early in the season. OOC win's over UNLV, San Diego State and @ODU are all marquee caliber wins that will look very solid by the end of the year. But what really helps the MVC is that right now, only 2 teams in the entire league have losing records, Bradley and Southern Illinois and Bradley is only 3-4. The MVC is a combined 46-23.

A 67% win/loss record is amazing for a mid-major league, especially considering the MVC has played some damn tough games thus far. If the MVC doesn't get at least 2 teams this year, especially with the CAA being a 1 bid league, it will end up being a travesty. If Creighton doesn't win the MVC tourney, I think by the end of the season it will be a lock that at least 2, possibly 3 teams get in.

The other two potential at-large teams from conference that normally never get 2 bids are Iona and Harvard. I've watched both of these squads play several times and they are VERY impressive basketball teams. Iona has a single loss thus far this year, to a very good Purdue team, by a single point on a neutral court in a game in which Iona had a 2 point lead with 30 seconds left. While right now they lack a "marquee win", a 26 point win over Maryland and a 2ot win over St. Joe's will both be decent rpi wins by the end of the year. They have a 4 game stretch coming up where they play @ 6-1 Denver, @ 5-1 Marshall and @ 6-2 Richmond followed by another tough road game at Vermont. If they manage to go 3-1 during that stretch and put up a very good conference record in a fairly weak MAAC this year, they could very well be an at-large team by the end of the season. Scott Machado, Michael Glover, Momo Jones and company will be a VERY tough out in the NCAA tourney. 

The other team from a usually 1 bid conference to keep an eye on is Harvard. The Crimson are 8-0 so far this season and have some quality neutral court wins over Florida State and Central Florida. They have a HUGE matchup coming up against UCONN on the road. Win that and they are pretty much a lock for a top 25 ranking and an at-large bid should they need it, but I don't see any way they don't win the Ivy league going away. They are legit and should very well be fighting for a 6 or 7 seed by the end of the year, possibly even higher. Tommy Amaker has a big, strong and athletic squad that has big time potential in the NCAA tourney. 

The other team I wanted to mention here is a Horizon League team, but no, it's absolutely not the one you are thinking. While Butler has really struggled thus far this year after losing Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard, the Cleveland State Vikings have flourished with their ace player, Norris Cole, having moved on. Butler is currently 4-4 and pretty much out of contention for an at-large, but Cleveland State is 8-1 with a HUGE 13 point victory @Vanderbilt that will be a big time marquee win at the end of the season. They also have a win on a neutral court over Boston Universtiry (solid win) and a huge win @ MAC favorite Kent State. Vandy and Kent State are big time resume building wins. They only have 1 loss thus far, a neutral court setback against Hofstra, a team that could end up being half way decent in the CAA by the end of the year. In order for Cleveland State to garner a potential at-large bid later in the year should they need it, I think they need to win a potentially tricky road game @ South Florida, win the Horizon regular season and split at least 1 or 2 games against Butler, a team that has been a tough nut for them to crack most years. Do that and Cleveland State could be dancing this year.

Well that just about wraps up the mid-major preview. There are some other mid-majors you should all keep your eye on this year as well, maybe not at-large caliber teams, but certainly teams that should they win their conference tourney and make the NCAA tournament, said teams would absolutely be capable of winning a game or two and doing some damage to your NCAA tourney bracket. Some teams to keep an eye on this year are Belmont (a "usual suspect" with an entire squad full of 3 point shooters), the aforementioned Kent State (rough and tumble squad that won at West Va. and is also capable of shooting the 3), St. Mary's (they can always pull an upset with their 3 point shooting) and a real darkhorse for mid-major of the year this season, Murray State. The Racers have solid wins already over San Francisco and Southern Miss on a neutral court and a great blowout win over Dayton. Their next game is a HUGE test @ Memphis and it would give them a big time road/marquee victory they could point towards come NCAA tourney selection show time. An 8-0 start thus far, combined with that Memphis win, would be a big step. The definitely need that win though because after that game, there isn't much heft left on the schedule. Regardless, watch out for Murray State this year and in the NCAA tourney should they make it because Isaac Cannon is one of the best players you've probably never heard of. He's averaging 20 a game, shooting 52% from the field and an incredible 51% from behind the arc (19-36)! The Racers will absolutely surprise someone in the NCAA tourney and very well could surprise Memphis on the road this week.

Enjoy the season and keep an eye on what is a very solid "Mid-Major" NCAA tournament bubble field this year! 

Basketball a plenty over the next couple of days! Enjoy your Thanksgiving and remember that somewhere, somehow, Bill Self is crying about a phantom foul call into his Thanksgiving turkey and for that, we should all be thankful.

Enjoy the next few days of basketball, we will have a full write-up on the weekends games starting on Monday.

Happy Thanksgiving! 

http://www.monarchfans.com/index.php/component/hwdvideoshare/viewvideo/216/odu-basketball/kent-bazemore

A little something to get you mid major college basketball fans fired up for this coming season. While ODU will most likely have a down year compared to previous year, watching Kent Bazemore play his senior season will be a blessing for us all. Enjoy this highlight video and keep in mind that we are less than a month away from actual college basketball games!

While last year concluded rather anti-climactically for us here at tourneybubble with Odu losing in the first round, VT getting left out of the tourney and one of our arch nemesis's here at TB winning the national championship (UCONN and the loathesome Jim Calhoun) we still enjoyed the season for what it was, a fantastic college basketball season. Even though VCU is ODU's arch nemesis, their run to the Final 4 combined with Butler making it to the Championship was very reassuring in the sense that anyone has a chance to win the tourney if they get in and have a decent enough draw.

Nothing here at Tourneybubble pisses us off more than to see a tournament bracket go chalk and while the wrong team won the national championship (shitty ass Uconn), at least it was refreshing to see two teams in the Final 4 who were given NO CHANCE to be there.

With that in mind, we will soon start our season preview of the upcoming 2011-12 season, complete with mid-major, BCS and possibly even a low major or two who might be pushing their way onto the tournament bubble this year. As an added bonus for your reading enjoyment, Tyler and I are going to try and liveblog a few more big time games this year, especially games that could have a big impact on the bubble for the rest of the year. The Virginia Tech-GMU game is a strong bubble game, with potential at-large impact for both the CAA and the ACC this year, much like Clemson ODU was last year. This will most likely be the first game we attempt to live blog for this upcoming year.

Feel free to join us and check back during the coming days for our season preview. Enjoy the Bazemore video, La Flama Blanca out.

What a few weeks it's been in the world of college basketball. Pretenders on the bubble are getting seperated out (Maryland, Marquette, Washington State, VCU) and real contenders are stepping up (George Mason, Old Dominion, St Johns, Wichita State etc.) Then there are the people like Utah State, Alabama and Belmont. Absolutely dominating their conference but with no real resume OOC to speak of. The committee will have some tough work to do this year, that is for sure.

The two most impressive mid majors anywhere right now are Wichita State and George Mason. Both of these teams look like they could be capable of doing some serious damage come March in the NCAA tourney. It's a shame that the Bracketbusters matched Wichita State up with a struggling VCU and likewise Mason with a injured, shaky UNI. GMU vs. Wichita State would bring back great memories of their 2 battles in 05 06, not just because of the matchup but because the level of play on the court would be nearly as high. Who knows, maybe they'll get a chance to meet each other yet again in the Round of 16. If they keep playing the way they are playing now, there is certainly a chance. They aren't just two of the best mid majors out there right now they are two of the best teams, period, anywhere in college basketball.

Big time kudos to Turner Broadcasting for finally getting it right with the NCAA tournament starting times. Instead of jamming all the games together to try and fit them in around the evening and late news, Turner stations will give you a more spread out, easier to enjoy every game scenario where you won't be desperately scrambling to try and watch three games at once coming down to the wire. Yes, it'll probably be harder for the average fan to find some of these channels on tv, but we here at Tourneybubble could care less about the average fan, the die hards are who matter to us and its really great news for our fellow college basketball fanatics!

The Bracketbusters are once again looming large this year. We already discussed how Wichita State and Mason would have been an amazing matchup and its a shame it didn't happen. With that said though, there are some huge opportunities/potential disappointments out there on the horizon. If GMU, who is steamrolling through the CAA, were somehow to lose at Northern Iowa, it might take a little of the luster off their recent run and hurt the CAA's chances for multiple bids. Have to think Mason is close to a lock right now but losing at Northern Iowa could open the discussion back up, even if that isn't a very fair scenario. By the same token, Wichita State could do themself a huge favor by beating a solid although struggling VCU team on their home court Friday night. It'll be a top 100 win against a good RPI team from the CAA. Should they lose at home, however, to a team that was just pasted twice in a row by GMU and ODU, it might do some severe damage to Wichita's at large bid chances. Also, while VCU's at large chances are pretty much dead now, the Rams getting a road win this late in the season over a possible at large team in the Shockers would be a huge boost to their CAA mates ODU and GMU who are both very much alive for an at large and were able to take down the Rams pretty easily over the last week. Winning at Wichita State would make those 2 wins look that much better for each team. 

In other BB games, Utah State absolutely MUST win at St. Mary's. The Gaels are probably in at this point barring a severe collapse down the stretch thanks in large part to the relative weakness of the bubble right now. The Aggies, however, absolutely HAVE to get a marquee win. Hell, they have to get a top 100 win, of which they have ZERO right now. If they lose to St. Mary's on top of just being upset by Idaho on the road, there is really not much chance we can see for them to get an at large bid again this year having done zero to earn it. There are more deserving teams out there who have actually won tough games.

ODU and Clev. State will also be a very interesting bubble game, as ODU is probably on the good side of the bubble right now and Cleveland State is probably just on the bad side. Would a road win help pull Clev. State onto the good side? Would it knock ODU over to the bad side? Would a ninth top 100 and third top 50 victory for ODU pretty much wrap up the at large bid for them should they need it? Can Norris Cole get anywhere near his INCREDIBLE 40, 20, 9 line from the other night against a defensive duo as good as Kent Bazemore and Ben Finney? Lot's of very good sideplots in this game and a heck of a way to wrap up this year's Bracketbusters. 

Back to the Big East, I really don't care how good talking heads say that conference is, they simply just do not deserve 11 bids. Despite receiving the most bids of any conference pretty much every year, they haven't had a national champ since 2004. They get more chances than anyone and are still coming up short. Think about it rationally, the freaking 11th place team in a conference getting an atlarge bid! It really doesn't matter how good your damn conference is, if you can't even finish in the top half, much less the top 10, you do not deserve an at large bid to the NCAA tourney! Especially not at the expense of a 1st or second or possible even third place mid major who didn't win their conference tourney. Marquette and Cincinatti are decent teams but neither one of them truly deserves an at large bid based on their current play. Being mediocre to below mediocre in a great but slightly overrated conference doesn't make you a good team. I'll be very disappointed in the NCAA selection committee if they take more than 9 Big East teams this year. Heck, more than 8 is really pushing it but West Va. and St. John's can probably make some noise in the dance if they get a good draw. They could also lose in the first round though.

Finally, some bigtime props to Charles Jenkins from Hofstra. Not only is he the CAA POTY and potential all American, not only did he nearly single handedly lead his team to a top 4 finish in the CAA and help them get that all important 1st round bye in the CAA tourney, but he also just had one of the most unbelievable games in NCAA history. Tuesday night against a game William and Mary squad, Jenkins was the definition of the word clutch. Down 3 with 4 seconds left, Jenkins got the ball on an inbound, looked his defender down and stepped up and nailed the contested 3 with 2.7 seconds left to tie the game and send it into overtime. Not content with that, Jenkins found himself in a tie game after 2 W&M FT's with 4 seconds left. Jenkins got the inbound under his own basket, drove the length of the court and pulled up from 35 feet as time expired and nailed the game winning shot.

2 buzzer beaters in 1 game, a huge game at that, which helped clinch a first round bye for Hofstra for the first time since 06 07. The guy is a stud, if you haven't seen him play before, check out his Brackebuster game this weekend against Wright State on ESPN2 at 11 am. The kid is worth the price of admission by himself.