Time for TourneyBubble to weigh in on who are the pretenders and who are the contenders in this year's Bubble pool. Every team on the bubble techincally has a "case". You can refer to a team passing the "eye test", which apparently, if you are Seth Davis or pretty much anyone who works at ESPN not named Joe Lunardi, means you see them on television alot and they look good in their uniforms.

 I'm sure UNC would pass Digger Phelps idea of what an "eye test" is. I mean afterall, they did beat Texas a few months ago and they look really good when they dunk the ball in transition. Plus Roy Williams in their coach and they are in the ACC, hell they could be a Final 4 team.

 So with that in mind, I am going to use my own biased standards to decide who I think should be in or out. I'm not going to use any criteria.....no RPI's, no SOS, nothing other than what I think should happen according to what I've seen with my own two eyes. If Andrew Katz and Hubert "I've never watched a mid-major team in my life" Davis can do it, why can't I?

So without further ado.....here are the "outs"......the teams I think are overrated, unworthy or just plain piss me off and I don't want them in the tourney.

First and foremost, Maryland. Yeah, they will get in, but I hate them. Gary Williams will be lucky to avoid a mid-major beatdown in the first round. As most of you know, Vasquez is easily our least favorite player in college basketball. The sooner Maryland's season is over, the better.

 Now for the real list.......

 Illinois....another worthless Big 10 team being propped up by ESPN because they aren't a mid-major and because of a couple of their "big wins". Completely ignoring the fact they've had about 15 chances for "big wins" this year and only have 3 or 4, they still just don't pass the mustard test (this is where I'd rather smear mustard on my chest like John Belushi in Animal House than watch Illinois play basketball). Sorry Illinois, you should be enjoying the NIT.

 For that matter, you can take Minnesota with you. A 30 point loss in the second to last game of the season to Michigan? Consider me impressed! What am I talking about, of COURSE you should be in, you play in the Big 10 and you beat Butler in November. Change Minnesota to a "lock".

Anyone from the Pac-10 because you all suck. Seriously, I hated the Pac-10 for so long, it just became second nature, now I just pity them. No BS, the CAA is a better league than the Pac-10 this year. Can we take away the Pac-10's auto tourney birth, they just absolutely suck. California might get a bid, not because they deserve it, but because they are the best team in the worst major conference in History. Seriously, if the Pac-10 sends 1 team to the tournament despite the MASSIVE advantage the NCAA has given them as a "BCS" conference, they really should just be forced to fold up shop and quit playing basketball for the next 10 years. Like Champ Kind, they might want to sit the next couple plays out.

 Florida, they'll probably get in, but I don't think they should. Why you ask? They just aren't that good. They won 2 good games OOC, Mich. St. and Florida St. They didn't win one good road game OOC. They lost to Richmond and Xavier at home, they lost to South Alabama at home and Syracuse. Not only that, they have exactly 1 good win the SEC, Tenn. at home. They lost to Kentucky, got swept by Vandy, and lost their road game at Tenn. Their best road win of the ENTIRE SEASON is at Ole Miss, another crappy SEC team that doesn't deserve to be in the NCAA tourney. Like I said, I'm sure they will probably get in, but at least I'll have fun rooting against them in the tourney.

 Notre Dame, UCONN, Cincy......let's just call them the 3 headed bid stealing monster from the Big East. None of them have done anything distinguishable to earn a bid. Notre Dame has won 2 good games in a row after losing 7 of their last 10 including awful losses to Rutgers and Seton Hall and even losing to St. John's at home. Just terrible. Of course Digger Phelps probably thinks they are a lock. UCONN is the only one of these teams that has a decent case because they played a really tough non-conference schedule.....oh wait, no, they didn't play a single game on the road in the OOC portion of their schedule until a mid-January road clash with Michigan (which they freaking lost). Not a single F'ing road win OOC!!! How is that possible? They should be banned from the NCAA tournament simply for that fact. Of course they won't be, which is why the NCAA sucks. Cincy isn't even worth discussing.

 Now that we have that out of the way, let's focus on the teams that should be in. First, let's start with the mid-majors:

Utah State......To quote Team America.........I like these guys, they have balls......I like balls. They didn't play a very tough OOC schedule either, much like the big boys in the Big East, but its not because they didn't want to, its because no one will play them, especially in Logan. I'm sure the BCS homers will say that I am giving them a pass, and I am, because I like them. They shoot over 40% from the 3 point line as a team, have a great coach and have this guy as a fan......I'll be rooting for them in the NCAA tourney.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SxKTB6jSlc&feature=PlayList&p=63AFE9D4E8EE3BFE&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=2

Old Dominion.....I am a ridiculous homer, I admit that, but even with that said, ODU deserves a bid for being the complete opposite of most BCS Bubble teams. Unlike UCONN or most BCS teams, ODU went on the road early, played very tough competition and really tested itself. They took a few lumps, but they played nearly all their toughest games on the road. Richmond, Dayton, Georgetown, Missouri, Miss. ST. were all played away from Norfolk. In Norfolk, however, they handled business, going undefeated at home and beating the liked of Marshall and Charlotte, the latter by 33 points. Not that great of wins you say? Well much like Utah State, ODU and most other CAA teams have a VERY tough time getting good competition from BCS conferences to come on the road and play them. Clemson, VT, Gtown and Depaul are the only BCS schools I can remember in the last 5 or so years coming into the Ted. They won their conference, they won on the road, they went undefeated at home and they played the 7th toughest OOC schedule in the country.....what else do you want from a mid-major that is already at a disadvantage. Fine, I guess we will have to win the CAA tourney as well.

 St. Mary's.......another team much like Utah State that can't get the big boys to come play them. The Pac-10 won't go into Gael country and with good reason, the Gael's would have smacked around pretty much any Pac-10 team they would have played at home this year. Omar Samhan is a great player and he deserves at least one shot at an NCAA tournament game. So they didn't get a win over Gonzaga, neither did Wisconsin, Illinois, Cincy or Memphis. They should still be in the NCAA tourney because I'd rather watch them play than any team from the Big 10 not named Purdue.

 Murray State.....do they deserve an at-large? Probably not, but they are 28-4 and I'd rather see them in than most of the teams I just mentioned. 28-4, even in a crappy conference and against a weak OOC schedule is still 28-4. But yeah, they better win their conference tourney just to make sure.

There you have it, the first round of who should be in and who should be out. More to come later with better looks at the SEC, MWC, A-10, ACC and Big 12.

Big week of college basketball coming up, time for the movers and shakers to step up and the pretenders to sit down. A quick preview of the action you should keep an eye on this week.

The Big Games to Watch this week:

Tuesday's obvious big time games as far as the bubble is concerned:

Kentucky at Miss St. - A big game for Miss St., if they are somehow able to knock off Kentucky at home, they are back on the good side of the bubble.

Wake Forest at Va Tech - A huge game for the Hokies, taking care of business at home against a top 25 team would once and for all silence the critics of their weak OOC schedule. It would also put them closer to the top of the very tight ACC.

Tuesday's not so obvious big time game:

Creighton at Northern Iowa - Most people have Northern Iowa as a lock out of the Missouri Valley and deservedly so, but the suspension of Center Jordan Eglseder has changed things drastically. They lost on Saturday to a very mediocre Bradley team with him, so this game becomes of the utmost importance with Old Dominion rolling into town on Friday. Were they to lose this game and then lose to ODU on Friday, that would be a 3 game losing streak coming down the back stretch of the season. When you take into account their fairly weak OOC schedule and lack of a real marquee win (Siena is close, but not a lock as a marquee win), a 3 game losing streak this late in the season could really hurt. Keep an eye on this game to see how they do without the big man.

Wednesday's obvious big time games afatbic:

Texas at Missouri - Texas has been on a real slide of late, but they are still a top 25 team and a lock for the tournament. Missouri, however, is not a lock, but they could push themselves closer to lock status with a home win over the Longhorns. A loss pushes them closer to .500 in the Big 12 with Kansas and K State both on the horizon.

Notre Dame at Louisville - Two of my least favorite teams duke it out in a battle of mediocrity so epic, we might just have the first ever double loss in NCAA history. The only sure thing is that ESPN putting this game on national TV makes us all losers. Hopefully Pitino busts out his white scarface suit again. I hate even adding this game because I loathe it, but both of these teams are bubble contenders right now, so there you have it. Here's to no fouls and no timeouts during this game so it will be over as quickly as possible. In my opinion, neither of these teams deserves to be in the NCAA tourney but undoubtedly, one of them will make it. Here's to being able to bet against either of these teams in the first round.

Wednesday's not so obvious big time games:

UNLV at Utah - UNLV really needs to win this game. They have a great resume, but they have been fading down the stretch a bit, losing their last two games by double digits. They've already lost once to Utah this year and could ill afford to be swept by a mediocre Utah team. Utah is always a tough place to play, so they really need to bring their A game on Wednesday in order to keep from dropping 3 straight after their big win over BYU. A loss could potentially drop them as low as 4th place in the MWC, something that could surely hurt them come Selection Sunday.

 Louisiana Tech at Utah State - neither of these teams really has a GREAT at-large candidacy right now, with LT having lost 2 of their last 4 in a sweep to New Mexico State and Utah State dropping disappointing early season tests against Northeastern, Utah and Long Beach State. USU has, however, won 10 in a row and could really help out their cause by taking revenge on a LT team that beat them by 22 points earlier this season. A good revenge win on national TV (ESPN2), coupled with another national TV win against Wichita State in the Bracketbusters later this week, could really put the Aggies back into the bubble picture as those victories would be the icing on top of a 12 game winning streak cake. Miss this game at your own peril.

Thursday's obvious big time games afatbic:

Vanderbilt at Ole Miss - Vanderbilt is solidly in the NCAA tournament due to their great SEC record and solid OOC performance. Ole Miss, however, is floundering having lost 3 of their last 4 in conference to end up at .500 in the SEC. A big home win over a ranked Vandy team would due their bubble resume wonders. Both teams are probably in right now, but Ole Miss could really help solidify a spot by knocking off the Commodores at home. A loss, however, drops them below .500 in the SEC, never a good idea when trying to claim and at-large spot.

Pitt at Marquette - Another rough and tumble game in the Big East, Marquette has put themselves back into bubble consideration by winning 5 in a row in the tough Big East, albeit against 5 of the weakest teams in the conference. With 3 tough road games coming up against decent but not great Big East teams, a home clash with Pitt is a must have for Marquette to stay in the bubble discussion.

Thursday's not so obvious big time game:

St. Mary's at San Diego - Wow, St. Mary's has really dug itself a hole. The Gaels had a solid OOC resume, with BLOWOUT wins over New Mexico State and San Diego St. and good wins at Utah State and on a neutral court to Northeastern. However, since then, they have failed to get a marquee win over conference rival Gonzaga on two occasions and have dropped tough games to Portland and Southern Cal. Lacking a true "marquee win" puts St. Mary's in a precarious position thus making this road test against the worst team in the conference a MUST WIN. I have no doubt that they will pull this one off, but if they don't, they can kiss their at-large hopes goodbye.

Friday's obvious big time games afatbic:

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa - The kickoff to the Bracketbusters is a doozy, as the Monarchs travel to Cedar Falls to take on the wounded animal that is the Panthers of Northern Iowa. Having already lost to a mediocre Bradley team, the Panthers suffered further agony when it was learned that All-conference Center Jordan Eglseder was arrested on suspicion of DUI and will be suspended for 3 games, including this one. Northern Iowa lacks a true "marquee win", so were they to lose this game or the Creighton game previous to this, they may end up back on the bubble when they were once considered a lock. The Monarchs are a tough team to play when you are fully armed due to their size and length on the defensive end, so taking away the middle of their defense as well as their best rebounder certainly can not help the Panthers. ODU, on the other hand, can really help solidify their spot in the NCAA tournament with a great late-season road win against a MVC team, a la George Mason in 2005-06. Should be a great game to watch between two of the top 3 defenses in the country.

Friday's not so obvious big time game:

Cornell at Harvard - What can you say about the Big Red's loss to lowly Penn, one of the worst teams in college basketball? Well, other than "ouch!" Cornell was a top 25 team prior to that setback, but man, that is really going to hurt come Selection Sunday. Quite frankly, that is the WORST loss of any "bubble team" in college basketball. No other team being considered for an at-large has a loss that bad. While Cornell's overall record of 21-4 is very impressive, they also lack a "marquee win" to offset that terrible loss to the Quakers. So with that in mind, their rematch with the second best team in the Ivy, Harvard, has become a must win. They can really help themselves stay on the bubble by getting what would be a solid road win in what is a below-average conference in the Ivy.

Saturday's obvious big time games afatbic: Too many to list as this might as well be "decision Saturday" so I'll just list the two or three most important games as it pertains to the bubble.

Illinois at Purdue - Big time game for the Illini. A road win at rival Purdue would more than likely lock up a bubble spot for them, whereas a loss puts them into the double digits for the season and combined with some shaky losses earlier in the season, would leave the Illini with a question mark come Selection Sunday. A win at Purdue all but assures them an at-large.

Siena at Butler - We could probably throw half the Bracketbusters into this list as having an effect on the bubble, but this game could have the most dramatic impact of them all. Siena is not in the tournament right now, at least in this basketball fans humble opinion. Their loss to UNI, their loss to Niagara and their lack of a marquee win really has the Saints in a tough spot. However, a win at Butler would give them signature win (and a road win at that), that is so highly regarded by the selection committee. A loss could have numerous effects when combined with the UNI-ODU outcome. Right now, UNI's best win is Siena. While it was a good win, were Siena to drop this game and UNI to lose at home to Old Dominion, both teams could end up playing themselves right out of the at-large pool. While it is a tough ask of Siena, it will be hard to justify an at-large for them with no real marquee win despite several opportunities to get one. Riveting stuff and why the Bracketbusters is a great idea, because it gives a team like Siena a chance to make a statement on a national stage. Butler is assured a spot, but Siena now has a chance to stake a claim for itself as a bubble worthy team.

Other big time games that are obvious but still bear mentioning (quick synopsis) -

Baylor at Ok State - The Cowboys get have a chance to get a top 25 win at home.       

Florida at Ole Miss - basically a play in game between two middle of the pack SEC teams desperate for another solid win. 

Georgia Tech at Maryland - The winner is likely in the tourney, the loser could really be sweating it out come Selection Sunday.    

Xavier at Charlotte - Should be an absolute war in the A-10 as both teams are currently 8-2 in the conference and looking to shore up their at-large resumes. The A-10 will definitely get AT LEAST 4 teams in this year and the winner of this game will have the upper hand one claiming one of those spots.

UTEP at Tulsa - CUSA is looking to take advantage of a weak Pac-10 by trying to get multi-bids yet again this year. UTEP has a very weak OOC resume, but is currently 10-1 in a tough CUSA. A win at Tulsa could help them really gain control of the conference and put them right smack in the middle of the bubble, while a Tulsa win could reignite the bubble hopes of a team struggling down the stretch.

UVA at Clemson - a play-in game, the loser is pretty much eliminated from bubble contention, the winner lives to fight another day.

Wichita State at Utah State - Another great Bracketbuster game, the winner helps solidify their conference as a "multi-bid conference" the loser will most assuredly have to win their conference tourney to get into the dance. Should be a very dramatic game with alot on the line for several teams, not just the ones playing.

Saturday's not so obvious big time game:

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern: This is an underrated game for several reasons. For one, while neither team is likely to get an at-large, both teams are in conferences that could end up with multiple bids. ODU and W&M and to a lesser degree VCU and NE all have at-large claims, the former with much better cases than the latter. Regardless, Northeastern is currently tied for first place in the CAA and a solid OOC win against a good Bulldogs team late in the season could really help the CAA's overall profile if/when combined with other Bracketbuster results. Vice versa, were Northeastern to lose at home to LT, it would give the Bulldogs a solid OOC victory, helping to boost not only their at-large candidacy, but that of Utah State as well. This WAC-CAA battle could end up being a bloody war between two teams who will have it all on the line, an absolutely must-watch in my opinion.

Sunday's obvious big time games afatbic:

Virginia Tech at Duke - The Hokies big chance to secure an at-large spot by getting a sorely needed marquee win on the road. Duke is undefeated at home this year, so it is certainly a tough ask of the Hokies, but a road win at Cameron would all but guarantee them a spot. It's definetly not "do or die" for VT, but this would definitely help their case and answer the questions of those critics who point to their lack of a top 50 road win this year.

Marquette at Cincinnati - An ugly game for two ugly teams, but Cincy has more to lose with a home loss and MU has more to gain with a road win. Either way, I won't be watching this one but as far as the bubble is concerned, its big.

Sunday's not so obvious big time game:

Dayton at Duquesne - While it might not get noticed on a national level, this A-10 matchup could be huge for the conference and for Dayton. A road loss to an around .500 Duquense could kill off Dayton's at-large chances. They simply have to have this road win to stay in the top 4 in the A-10. Losing this game could impact their resume and really hurt them when you compare them with the other A-10 at-large teams. Definitely the potential for an upset here, so keep an eye on this one.

Ahhhhh yes, it's that time of year again, when the mid-majors get their 15 minutes on the Ocho. As mid-majors seemingly grow ever stronger, this years Bracketbuster is sure to highlight some of the better teams college basketball has to offer. Two spotlight games feature the top teams from their respected conferences, but also, 4 of the top teams in the country. While those are certainly the marquee match-ups, there are some other very intriguing games that could end up having a big impact come Selection Sunday. Without further ado, here is Tourneybubble.com's preview of the Bracketbuster games scheduled this year. 

The Marquee Match-ups: 

Siena Saints at Butler Bulldogs

  What a game this will be, two of the best mid-majors in the country, going at it in historic Hinkle Field house in front of a national TV audience. Butler is a lock for the tournament, everyone knows that, what is not a lock is their seed however, as several times in the past few years Butler has been royally screwed by the Selection Committee in terms of its seeding. With several good OOC marquee wins already on their resume, Butler is surely a top 6 seed. But running the table in their conference, beating a very good Siena squad on national TV and then running through their conference tourney could get Butler anywhere between a 3 and 5. One thing is for sure, Butler will be a tough out in the NCAA tourney this year. 

On the flip side of the coin, Siena is a team that lacks a signature win. They went 0-4 in their attempts at an OOC marquee win, dropping games to Temple, St. John's, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa, the latter of which they lost by 17 points. Those are, however, their only losses of the season and they have handled business against everyone else in putting up a 19-4 record. Right now their best wins are against Northeastern at home and on the road at Iona. Not exactly bubble-worthy wins, but all that can change thanks to the Bracketbusters. Siena will get 1 more shot at a big time OOC win to help secure a spot for them in the NCAA tourney. Hinkle Field house, on ESPN2, against an extremely solid Butler team and a sold out crowd of rabid Bulldog fans would be the perfect place for the Saints to finally get that marquee OOC win they so desperately need. This has game of the year potential all over it, a close game, in an amazing atmosphere on national TV between two great teams. Alex Franklin and Edwin Ubiles vs. Gordon Hayward and Matt Howard has the makings of an NCAA tourney battle where teams go shot for shot, blow for blow down to the last possession. Miss this game at your own peril.   

Old Dominion Monarchs at Northern Iowa Panthers   

For those who don't know, I am an ODU alum, so I'll try to present this match-up as unbiased as I possibly can, but forgive me if I get a little overexcited about this game. ODU fans have been waiting for a game like this for sometime, a high-profile Bracketbuster match-up against the top team from the Missouri Valley on National TV. After watching our CAA brethren take on the likes of Creighton and Wichita State the last several years in high profile MVC-CAA games, ODU has had several less interesting match-ups against teams like Marist, Toledo, Bucknell and Liberty. While all were fun games to watch, games which broke the monotony of 18 conference games in a row, none were all that meaningful outside of the Toledo game which helped ODU secure an at-large in 06-07. But finally, ODU has the game they have been looking for, a top-level opponent, on their home court, with all the marbles on the line. ODU needs this win badly to help wrap up and at-large bid. Northern Iowa can secure their spot in the tourney and really help improve their seeding in the tournament with another marquee win. Regardless, the winner of this game will not only help themselves secure a big for the NCAA tourney, but also might be the key RPI boost needed to help their respective conferences become multi-bid leagues.  

There are many subplots to this game, whether it be the match-up of two of the top teams in the top mid-major leagues or the match-up of the number 2 defensive team in the country, Northern Iowa, against the number 3 rated defense in the country of the ODU Monarchs. Both teams can be lights out on defense, as both can employ devastating zone defenses which are capable of sending teams on long scoring droughts that can affect the outcome of the game. Another subplot to this game will be the running battle that will occur between Northern Iowa's 7 footer Jordan Eglseder and ODU's 6-10 big man, Gerald Lee. Both are capable of filling up a stat sheet, but Eglseder is more of a banger inside while Lee, who can bang, is a more polished European big man who can step outside and knock down a J. It will be interesting to see how these 2 big men are able to handle one another's presence in the paint and to see how they impact each others games. The other key match-ups will be how well Northern Iowa's guards are able to shoot the ball over ODU's long-armed, tall guards and how well they are able to rebound against one of the best rebounding teams in the country. If ODU can control the boards, they can win this game. However, if Northern Iowa's also very stout big men can clean the glass effectively against the Monarchs, they will take away one of ODU's main strengths (offensive rebounding) and limit the number of shots they get from the field. In what should surely be a very close game, that type of thing could end up being huge. ODU doesn't shoot that well from the 3, so if they are given extra opportunities to knock some down, it could end up being the difference in the game. 

Regardless, this match-up has all the makings of a Bracketbuster Classic. Much like when Drexel went into Creighton and picked up a hard fought road win or when George Mason helped secure their first at-large bid in school history by winning at Wichita State, this game has all the makings of another CAA-MVC barn burner. The winner should be in the NCAA tourney, the loser will still have some work to do. Regardless, it will be a heck of a game to watch between two of the best defensive teams in the country and another game that should go down to the wire. 

The Best of the Rest:  

College of Charleston Cougars at George Mason Patriots

   The Patriots of George Mason can owe pretty much ALL of their recent success to the bracketbusters, as it was their amazing road at Wichita State in 2005-06 that spurred them on to reach the Final 4 and establish themselves as one of the premier mid-major college basketball teams in the country. This year might be considered a "down year" for them, but believe it or not, they are in first place right now in the rugged CAA despite having one of the youngest teams in the nation. GMU fans, however, understand that this overachieving bunch has benefited from an easy early CAA schedule to achieve this accomplishment, but don't be surprised if they are still near the top of the standings at the end of the season. This should surely be a great test for them OOC to see how they stack up against a very solid Charleston team. 

The Cougars pulled off a huge upset earlier this season, knocking off the defending NCAA Champion North Carolina Tar Heels earlier this season. While UNC certainly isn't the same team as they were last year, it was still a very good win for this Cougars teams an a win that could serve them well if they manage to win their conference tourney and make the NCAA tourney this year. While they are not an at-large team, a win for them against the CAA's first place team would definitely help their case for a better seed come NCAA tourney time were they to win their conference tourney or at the very least, would help them lock up an NIT bid. Should be another great Bracketbuster game as GMU is very tough to beat in the Patriot Center.  

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Northeastern Huskies    

In what should surely be a "dogfight", the Bulldogs of La. Tech travel to Boston to take on the Northeastern Huskies in a crucial OOC match-up for both the CAA and for La Tech. On one hand, Northeastern is pretty much out of contention for an at-large, but a victory over a very good La Tech squad would only further bolster the CAA's claim for multi-bids this year. Teams like Old Dominion, William and Mary and VCU would all benefit greatly from Northeastern taking down one of the best teams from the WAC. On the other hand, the Bulldogs are looking for a good solid road win over a top 60 RPI team that currently sits in second place in the CAA and has good wins over Utah State, VCU and ODU.

Louisiana Tech is another team that much like Siena, lacks a marquee OOC victory. They didn't play a very challenging OOC schedule this year, with their two toughest games both resulting in losses against New Mexico and Arizona. A win over Northeastern could really help bolster their claim for an at-large bid by giving them a road victory in a place that is very tough for opposing teams to play. Their 18-4 record looks very good and they have good in conference victories over Nevada and Utah State, but this game would definitely help them to secure a spot in the NCAA tourney. Matt Janning vs. Kyle Gibson should be a great duel of mid-major gunners who can shoot the lights out of the gym. Another fine match-up put together by ESPN.  

Wichita State Shockers at Utah State Aggies   

Another great game between two solid mids, the Shockers and Aggies have both been two of the better mid-majors in college basketball in recent years. The Shockers made the Sweet 16 in 05-06 and Utah State came within a hair of knocking off Marquette in last years tourney. Wichita State is a bubble worthy team with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa and Northern Illinois, but a good solid OOC win against Utah State would do wonders for their at-large potential. Likewise, Utah State is also just hanging on to a bubble worthy resume, with their win over BYU looking better and better by the day. They have 3 more shots at big time wins with games against Nevada, Wichita State and La Tech all on the horizon and all at home, games which could help push them into the NCAA tourney. Right now they are on the outside looking in, but Stu Morrow is a great mid-major coach and could very well get his boys into the tourney were they to win all 3 games. 

Regardless, the match-up of Jared Quayle vs. J.T. Durley should be a 3 point shooting contest on par with any you will find in the country. Should be a great watch as the Smith Spectrum is an incredibly tough place to play, with a great home atmosphere in which USU has lost only once this year to a very good St. Mary's squad.  

A few other comments....  

William and Mary really got shafted this year as did VCU, both barely bubble teams who were looking for high profile games in the Bracketbuster to improve their resumes and help them move up the ladder, but who instead got high rpi teams in Akron and Iona that will do little for both in terms of helping their resumes. Both are winnable games for the two CAA squads, but you can't help but think both would rather have played a Murray State (who also got shafted by getting Morgan State) or Nevada/MVC team to really help boost their profile. VCU-Murray State would have been an amazing match-up, as would William and Mary/Nevada. I guess they can't all be winners though, so we'll just have to enjoy ODU-UNI and Butler-Siena.

Well, we are almost a month into College Basketball season and already, tourneybubble's mid-major preview is shot to hell. ODU and GMU are pretty much already eliminated from at-large contention (ODU needs to win at Georgetown and at Dayton to have a chance, so in other words, it probably isn't happening) and a couple other mids have taken gas early.

Siena has no bad losses but at the same time, has no good wins, missing chances to beat a good Temple team as well as a road win against Gtown. But my good lord, is their upcoming road game at Northern Iowa looking like a fantastic bracketbuster matchup, only its just a really really solid OOC game. This Saturday, mark it on your schedule and try and catch it on channelsurfing if you can, it should be an absolute war. Northern Iowa is solidly in at-large contention with wins over Boston College, Iowa State and Iowa. Defending their home turf against Siena will be crucial, but they are in very good position for an at-large right now.

Portland has been the most disappointing team of all, following up their wins over Oregon, UCLA and Minnesota with beatdowns against West Virginia (excusable) and a 20 point loss to Idaho (inexcusable) mixed in with a competitive but still poor home loss to Portland State. A very poor follow up to a great early part of the season. They will need to beat both Gonzaga and St. Mary's at least once this year as well as put a decent record in the rugged WCC to stay in at-large contention. Right now they are on the outside looking in. Right now all they are really doing is providing a chance for St. Mary's to get 1 more quality in conference win to help boost the Gael's at-large candidacy.

Butler has also missed a chance to solidify their spot in the NCAA tourney by losing to every ranked team they've played. Clemson, Minnesota and Georgetown are all understandable losses and Butler's SOS looks very good right now, but their best wins are against a decent Valley team in Evansville and a solid Big 10 school in Northwestern, but neither of which will get them into the tourney. They still have several big chances though as they get Ohio State and Xavier at home in the next 2 weeks. Winning both of those should help assure them a spot in the NCAA tourney were they to lose in the Horizon league tourney. Still a long ways away from being safe though.

Creighton has also been very disappointing, losing all their marquee win opporunities against good teams in losses to Michigan, Dayton and Xavier, but then dropping a stinker to Iona really put them in trouble. George Mason and a very good New Mexico team provide them with their last 2 opportunities to get solid OOC road wins, but they would need to put up a hell of a MVC record and it just doesn't look like they have the team to do it this year. On a side note, New Mexico looks like a tourney team this year. Their 9-0 start was bolstered by a good win over Cal, but we will see just exactly how legit they are Saturday at home against ranked Texas A&M. A win there will put them solidly in the tourney right now.

The best mid-major picks we made for at-large candidacy were Illinois State (undefeated right now) and Northern Iowa (playing great basketball) and the worst two picks we made were Portland (jumping on their bandwagon way too early) and George Mason (way too young this year to get the consistent play worthy of an at-large). On a side note, we mentioned William and Mary, Richmond, Missouri St, St. Mary's and Cornell as teams to keep and eye on. All 5 are posting legit, tourney worthy resumes right now and are solidly in contention for at-larges. The Tribes wins over Richmond, Wake Forest and VCU all look legit, Richmond's only loss is to said W&M team with wins over Miss St., Missouri and ODU, Missouri St. is undefeated, St. Mary's has 1 loss at home to Vandy by 2 points and Cornell has only lost to two Big East teams in Syracuse and Seton Hall. All 5 are still teams to keep an eye on.

 One final note......Tourneybubble.com would like to send condolences to the ears of all 3 referee's who had to work the Maryland-Villanova BB&T Classic game at the Verizon Center this past weekend. Having to listen to the complaints of the two whiniest, snivelling, bitching, moaning jerk-off coaches in college basketball for 2 straight hours must have surely forced the trio to go Vincent Van Gogh on themselves so they never have to put up with that kind of crap again. Sorry fella's, but on the bright side, you will never have to officiate for two more vile coaches at the same time at any point in the rest of your careers. It's all gravy from here guys.

Northern Iowa Panthers 

The third Missouri Valley team in our Mid-Major Preview is the fighting pride of Cedar Falls Iowa, the Northern Iowa Panthers. One of the lesser known mids by MVC standards, the Panthers have been a VERY solid team on the national stage, making the tourney three of the last 5 years. This year is looking to be no exception, as the Panthers return all 5 starters to a team that won the MVC tourney and nearly knocked off a very good Purdue team in the opening round. The Panthers will certainly be looking to improve on last seasons finish by advancing to the second round of the tourney any possibly even the sweet 16. 

With all 5 starters returning, the Panthers will have balance on offense and experience all over the court. But in the crunch, they will rely heavily on their main man in the middle, Adam Koch. As a first team All-Valley player, his experience around the rim will play a big part in the Panthers season. It would be easy to say as he goes, so do the Panthers, but on any given night, someone different might step up and lead them in scoring. The next guy on the list of players who can step up is Kwadzo Ahelegbe, a 6-2 junior guard who was second on the team in scoring last year and has already proven that he can be THE GUY this year when they need him, by dropping 32 on Boston College and shooting an astounding 63% from the 3 point line, albeit very early in the season. Look for that number to drop, but don't look for his contributions to be any less on a nightly basis as he has proven he has what it takes to produce big time numbers against solid competition. The Panthers also have big man Jordan Eglseder clogging up the middle, standing at 7-1 and nearly 300 pounds, his presence alongside Koch gives Northern Iowa the best front court in the league and one of the bigger, stronger frontcourts in the entire country. Rounding out the very solid starting 5 are Ali Farokhmanesh, a 3 point specialist and all freshman team returnee Johnny Moran who gives them solid defense in the backcourt. The Panthers bench is also very deep and Lucas O'Rear is the first man off that bench, a do everything kind of guy who gives you hustle, defense and a few timely shots here and there. 

Coach Ben Jacobsen's crew is my pick to win the Valley this year and as its representative, I fully expect them to break the first round jinx that has hampered them as of late. This team is too big, too talented and too experienced to not make it out of the opening round. A good start to the year has them in a strong position for an at-large should they need it, and  big upcoming games against Siena and Iowa at home as well as a tricky little road test against Iowa State could help solidify them as a solid NCAA tourney team were they to win all 3. Of course the easy thing to do would be to repeat as Valley Tourney Champs, but we all know how hard that is to do. Regardless, I fully expect the Panthers to be in the tourney one way or another this year.   

Old Dominion University  

We finally come to my alma matter, so I figured I'd go ahead and announce this fact before I get started with the preview. Secondly, this preview is being written AFTER ODU's losses to Missouri and Miss. St., so that factor is going to be added in as well.  Old Dominion University has been resurrected under Coach Blaine Taylor. After a short period of irrelevance around the turn of the century under Jeff Capel's reign as head coach, Blaine Taylor took over a program in disarray. With the help of a brand new arena and the discovery of an overseas gem in Alex Loughton, Coach Taylor got the Monarchs back on the winning track, taking them to the NCAA tourney in 04-05 and helping them to their first CAA regular season and tourney title in nearly 8 years. Since that season, ODU has had the most wins of any school in the state of Virginia and has been a contender for the CAA crown every year, never finishing worse than 4th in the league. However, in that same time period, ODU has failed to win an NCAA tourney game, while watching their fellow VA/CAA brethren George Mason and VCU go to the Final 4 and upset Duke and take Pitt to OT, respectively. The majority of ODU fans are hoping this is the year that the Monarchs finally get it done, not only making the NCAA tourney, but winning their first game since their upset of Villanova in the first round back in 1995. 

The Monarch fans have good reason to be excited about their teams prospects, returning 10 of 11 players from last years 25 win team. This experienced, deep team is led by CAA preseason Player of the Year and 08-09 All CAA First Team C Gerald Lee. The 6-10, 250 pound senior European import is as solid a player as you will find on the mid-major level. He is skilled with both hands around the rim, has a solid mid-range game, can put in on the floor and attack the rim or help break a press and is in the top 3 or 4 free throw shooters in the CAA. The Monarchs will most likely go as far as Gerald Lee can take them, at least when it comes to the CAA tourney and especially if they make the postseason. However, during the course of the season, the Monarchs will get solid contributions from a number of returning players. Ben Finney is a 6-5, 220 pound, tough, versatile defender who can play a variety of positions, attack the rim, rebound well (he led the Monarchs in that stat last year) and really gives the Monarchs a nasty streak. They will rely on his team first attitude and all out hustle when they need a spark this year. Rounding out the front court is 6"8, 245 pound junior Frank Hassell, a solid post player with a wide body who helps the Monarchs fill the paint and cleans the glass with authority. The Monarchs front court is experienced but unproven with Darius James running the point and Marsharee Neely as the only other returning senior who will start most games at SG. The Monarchs are going to need these two to step up along with 6-5 sophmore Kent Bazemore, as teams will more than likely pack the middle against the Monarchs frontcourt and at times force the backcourt to beat them. If the Monarchs can hit from deep, they can be one of the better teams in the country. If they are off, they will have a tough time winning in a very talented and deep CAA this year. 

As the preseason favorites to win the CAA this year, the Monarchs missed two very good opportunities to prove they are for real with losses to BCS teams Miss. St. and Missouri in the South Padre Island Invitational. On the bright side however, the Monarchs will have a chance to avenge that performance with a road trip to the winner of that tourney, the Richmond Spiders, coming up on Wed. If the Monarchs are able to win that game, and perhaps pick off Dayton or Georgetown later in the season, the Monarchs at-large profile would start looking better. Regardless, they are a very deep squad with a lot of experience who should be able to win the CAA regular season title. However, as results have shown in recent years, the CAA tourney is a gauntlet and the Monarchs may very well have missed an opportunity to play themselves into the tourney should they bow out early in Richmond. The Monarchs are definetly a team to keep an eye on as the season progresses, but they are going to need more production from there back court if they are going to make the tourney and certainly if they are going to do damage in March.

Portland Pilots   

Portland was the last addition to this years preview of Mid Major Bubble teams. I'm not going to lie to you and tell you that they were on my radar for an at-large before the Anaheim tourney in which they competed so valiantly, but the beauty of this blog is that we actually waited a few games into the season to make our first preview of the teams we consider at-large candidates, so having seen them play now, we can honestly say that Portland is definetly a bubble team who can play there way in or out of the tournament depending on how they handle the rest of their OOC schedule and how they finish in a 4 way race for 1st in the solid WCC this year. Either way, the West Coast Conference IS a multiple bid league this year and Portland very well could be one of those bids. 

Eric Reveno has to be considered an early candidate for coach of the year, having taken a program that was considered one of the worst in the WCC just a few years ago to a darkhorse candidate to win the conference and make the NCAA tourney. He has built Portland up around a solid "team first" concept, a concept which was clearly on display in the 76 tournament this past weekend. Led by undersized guard T.J. Campbell and the experienced 6-4 wing Nik Raivio, the Pilots used some hot shooting in the first 2 rounds of the tourney to score major upsets over UCLA and a very good Minnesota squad. They were hardly the only players contributing however, as G Jared Stohl and C Robin Smeulders contributed solidly to the box score along with solid frontcourt defense from Ethan Neidermeyer, Kramer Knutson and Luke Sikma.  

This total team effort helped lead the Pilots to a second place finish in a VERY good 8 team tournament in Anaheim. This was a tourney that was broadcast on ESPN and ESPN2 all weekend long, which could end up going a long way towards helping the Pilots come Selection Sunday in March. Minnesota is going to be a very good win at the end of the year, Oregon, Stanford and UCLA give them three more BCS wins, albeit against a very down Pac 10 trio, and they still have several big opportunities to solidify their spot in the Big Dance should they manage to knock off the best team in the Pac 10 in the Washington Huskies, another very solid team in Nevada, and several opportunities to take down other at-large candidate teams in their conference against San Diego, Gonzaga and St. Mary's. The next several weeks will be crucial as Portland will try to avoid let downs after such a tremendous tournament, but have no doubt that Coach Reveno will have his team ready to play, believing in their team first attitude and trying to solidify their spot as a tournament team in a multi-bid WCC.   

Siena Saints    

Last year's "Cinderella", as CBS would like to call them, was anything but. On the contrary, Siena proved all year that they were for real and were hardly a fairy tale story. Their first round "upset" of Ohio State was in fact the product of solid recruiting, development of players and coaching by Fran McCaffrey and came as little surprise to us here in Mid Major land as most of us knew all along how good Siena was. When they went on the road and beat Northern Iowa in the Bracketbusters, we knew this was going to be a VERY tough team to beat in the NCAA tourney and sure enough, they upset Ohio State and took Louisville to the wire.  

This years team is going to be no exception, returning a solid group of players in 6-10 Center Ryan Rossiter, 6-6 wing Edwin Ubiles and 6-5 forward Alex Franklin. They will no doubt miss All MAAC guard Kenny Hasbrouck, but should more be able to make up his scoring with increased production from Ubiles and Franklin.  Rounding out the starting 5 are guard Clarence Jackson and Ronald Moore, with Jackson being the 3 point specialist and Moore the defensive dynamo. They give Siena a solid starting 5 that can give any team trouble, provided they are hitting their outside shots the way they are capable of. The Saints also have solid depth, and look to Owen Wignot, O.D. Anosike and Kyle Downey off the bench to give them a spark should they need one. Time will tell if this group can take up the slack for the departed do-everything Hasbrouck, but they certainly have the solid nucleus of players to make an impact later on in the season. 

Last year, Siena was an unknown to most in the BCS dominated media, but this years team should surprise no one as they return a solid group of players being lead by one of the better coaches in the country in Fran McCaffrey. They have dropped some tough games early, including a squeaker against a very good Temple team and a tough loss to an improved St. John's team in the Philly Hoop Classic, but they have a good win over Northeastern and have a few more opportunities to get marquee wins with games against Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa in the next several days. The MAAC is much improved this year, with Iona, Niagara, Rider and Siena all fielding very good teams. Should they survive the conference slate with a good record, win the two OOC games against Northern Iowa and GT, make it to their conference tourney final and lose, Siena would have a very strong case for an at-large birth this year. As it stands now, they are most certainly a bubble team with several good opportunities to get a marquee win or two.    

Virginia Commonwealth Rams   

The Rams are a bit of a mystery this year to TourneyBubble, and who can blame us with their schizophrenic start? A team that dominated Oklahoma and soundly beat a good Nevada team also lost by 16 to Western Michigan in surely one of the strangest games of the year. VCU looked like world beaters in the first half of that game up by as much as 17 at one point in the first half and 7 at the break, only to get completely dominated in the second half by a team they really should have handled. Of course, no one can blame the Rams for having an identity crisis after the departure of one of the best CAA players in the last 15 years in guard Eric Maynor, but they certainly have been able to rebound nicely after that mystifying loss by dominating Oklahoma and leading from start to finish against a very game Nevada side. The Rams have a very talented group of players that will be bolstered even more when transfer Jamie Skeen becomes eligible in a few weeks.  

When Anthony Grant and Eric Maynor left VCU this off-season, many CAA fans thought the Rams reign as CAA Champs might come to an end. But new Head Coach Shaka Smart and All CAA First-teamer Larry Sanders seem to have other ideas. Grant left a wealth of talented players for Coach Smart and so far, they have hardly missed a step under their new leader. Sanders is the player to watch on this squad, a Mid-Major All-American who has the potential to be the best player in the CAA and a NBA lottery pick. He is hardly alone in the backcourt though, as Wake Forest transfer Jamie Skeen will become eligible in the second half of the season, giving the Rams one of the top two front courts in the CAA along with Old Dominion. On any given night however, the Rams frontcourt could end up being the best in the CAA and perhaps even one of the best in the country. Rounding out the starting 5 will be undersized guard Joey Rodriguez, a pesky defender and solid 3 point shooter who will have to step up if this team is going to contend for a CAA title and possibly even an at-large bid. The Rams also boast two of the best outside shooters in the CAA right now in guards Jay Gavin and Bradford Burgess. Gavin, a transfer from Marist after making the All-MAAC freshman team, has been an early revelation for the Rams, giving them solid outside shooting and averaging nearly 11 a game despite having sat out a year due to the transfer. The 6-5 Burgess, however, is a known commodity in the CAA, making the All-freshman team last year and leading the Rams in scoring this year from the small forward position. The Rams have had balance on the offensive end this year, having 7 players averaging over 6 points a game. Guards Brandon Rozzell and Ed Nixon have given Coach Smart solid minutes off the bench early and front court players T.J. Gwynn and Kirill Pishchalnikov have done a solid job of shoring up the forward positions while Skeen is still sitting out. 

Overall, the Rams and Coach Smart have done a tremendous job of picking up the pieces after Grant and Maynor's departures, and he has this athletic, tenacious, defensive-minded team already competing at a very high level, which will surely help bolster their bid to 4peat as CAA Regular Season Champions. As far as an at-large bid goes, the Rams have several more chances for solid OOC wins with games against a very good Richmond team and a solid Rhode Island team on the horizon. They would be greatly helped by a high profile Bracketbuster game which could help put the Rams back on the radar on the selection committee later in the season. The CAA is going to be very tough this year, so the Rams best bet at getting an at-large might be to run the table in the rest of their OOC games, something they are certainly capable of doing. There is no doubt though that the Rams have the talent to make it back to the NCAA tourney yet again, and if Sanders can repeat his performance from last years first round game against UCLA, the Rams could again make some noise like they did in 06-07.    

Other Mid-Major Teams to Watch 

Right now, there are several Mid-Major teams that have played better early than some of the teams on our Preview. However, we have decided to stick with our original teams that we expected to make noise in mid-major land (with the exception of Portland) in order to give you the best feel for mid-major basketball. Right now, a case could be made for the inclusion of several good teams who have been hot early, teams like William and Mary, Richmond, Missouri St., St. Mary's, Cornell and San Diego. I assure you, we will keep an eye on these teams all year long and should they continue to keep up their impressive play, they will be added to the list of Mid-Majors we have on the bubble. Right now we simply have a rough outline of teams we think are going to make noise. The long haul of the season will separate the pretenders from the contenders. The teams in the preview are the teams we think are the Real McCoy. We could end up being wrong and the teams we listed in the "Watch" section could end up being the better teams from mid-major land, but we will let the OOC portion of the schedule finish before we start our first real bubble watch for both the mids and the BCS schools. If you disagree with the teams we have listed, let us know why and who we should really be looking at in terms of post-season prowess. Enjoy the season!

Welcome to the tourneybubble.com's Mid Major Preview, where we will be reviewing the top mid major teams from across the country, accessing their at-large and season potential and analyzing their chances to make a splash in the NCAA tournament. There are some obvious teams in the mid major ranks this year that are capable of winning and making it to the second weekend of NCAA tourney play, but there are also quite a few lesser known mids that could end up doing some damage to some BCS teams this year in the first round.

Without any further ado, here are the best of the Non-BCS teams and how we rate their chances of success:

Butler Bulldogs 

We all know Butler, we all love Butler, we all love watching Butler play. We love their young coach, we love the mentality he has instilled in them, that tenacious defending and a team mentality can be successful in the NCAA tournament. We love their 3 point shooting ability,  their rebounding ability and their penchant for taking charges on defense or making the extra pass on offense. In short, they do it all and are the model of what every non-BCS team wants to be right now. Matt Howard and Gordon Hayward are as good of players are you would find on any team in the country. One is tough as nails, the other has incredible range and accuracy. Together on the same team, they provide an inside/outside game that is one of the best in the country. Willie Veasley and Shelvin Mack are the tough defensive guards who can also penetrate and provide kick outs to shooters like Hayward and Zack Hahn for the open 3.

Butler will be tested early on in their schedule with OOC games against teams like Minnesota, Georgetown, Ohio State and Xavier, to name a few. Expect them to win at least 2 of those games and quite possibly, all 4. A nice Bracket Buster match up at the end of the year, possibly against a good CAA team, could break up the mid-season monotony of what should surely be a cakewalk for Butler to the Horizon league title. Regardless, tourneybubble.com would consider anything less than a Sweet 16 appearance would be a disappointment for the best team in the mid-major landscape of college basketball.  

Creighton Bluejays

One of the top two teams in the MVC this year and one of the upper echelon teams in the mid-major world this year is the team from Omaha, the Creighton Bluejays. Dana Altman is still in town, coaching them up and looking just as intense as ever on the sidelines. He has a great group of players returning which should really help ease the loss of leading scorer Booker Woodfox to graduation. P. Allen Stinnett and Kaleb Korver can really stroke the 3 ball and Kenny Lawson Jr. gives them a solid post scorer and defender. The team has really good depth at the guard positions, but lacks size and strength inside with the exception of Lawson which could hurt them if they are unable to deal with some of the more physical teams in the MVC or OOC. It certainly hurt them in their first game of the season against Dayton, where they were beaten on the boards and beaten in the paint by a very physical Flyers team. If they can make up for that lack of size with great outside shooting, they will still be a very tough team to beat.

However, in their favor, the Bluejays have one of the best home court advantages in all of college basketball, and certainly one of the top 2 or 3 in the mid-major basketball world. The Qwest Center will again play a big role in helping the Bluejays try to win their conference championship by spurring them on to take care of business at home in one of the loudest places to play in the whole country. If they are able to run the table at home, they could possibly secure an at-large bid if they are able to string together a few marquee wins in the next couple of OOC games against a ranked Michigan team, a solid New Mexico team and a much improved George Mason team on the road. If they are able to win in the Bracketbuster against a top level opponent possibly from the CAA or MAAC and are able to post a good MVC conference record, Creighton should have what it takes to be an at-large caliber team should they falter in the always rugged MVC tourney. However, if they are not able to overcome their lack of size with consistent outside shooting, Creighton could be on the outside looking in come Bubble time. If they are able to make the NCAA tourney, they could conceivably pull a first round upset, depending on the the matchup, but may lack the size and physicality needed to advance much further than that.

Dayton Flyers

The Dayton Flyers may very well be my favorite mid-major not named Old Dominion. Some people would debate over whether they are still actually a mid-major because of their recent success, but I think the fact that not 1 BCS team would come play them in Dayton or even allow them to come play at their home court speaks to the fact that they are a mid-major that BCS teams are too scared to play. They could only get 3 games against BCS teams this year and that was only because those teams were forced to play them in a tournament. Dayton more than held their own, beating a ranked Georgia Tech team and taking another bubble team, Kansas St. and a 4th ranked Villanova team to the wire.

However, just because they have no more BCS teams of their schedule, that hardly means the Flyers won't have a chance to put some marquee wins on their resume. They already beat a very good Creighton team at home and have several more opportunities to pad their resume against teams like Old Dominion and New Mexico at home and a good George Mason team on the road. Add in a very tough A-10 conference this year with solid teams like Richmond, Xavier, Duquesne, St. Joe's and Temple, and Dayton should easily be into the NCAA tournament this March.

Chris Wright and Chris Johnson are explosive players who are as good of slashers/wing/post players as you would find on most any team in the country.  Dayton has a ton of quality depth and is able to go big, go small, go athletic and give teams a multitude of different looks. They rebound well with their big men and athletic, tall wing players and are not just able to crash the glass on the offensive boards, but are able to finish put-back dunks several times a game. You just cannot keep this team off the boards because their guards are so strong and big.

Dayton can create match-up nightmares for almost any team in the country. We may not mention them much more this season as they probably won't be anywhere close to the bubble. The Flyers should be solidly in the tournament, but with the selection committee heavily favoring BCS teams in recent years for at-larges, you just never know.

Dayton certainly has the talent to improve on last year's first round win and certainly could be yet another mid-major representative in the Sweet 16 this year.  

George Mason Patriots

The Patriots are a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. In other words, they are extremely young, very talented and capable of being very good (a 1 point loss to Villanova) and head-scratching (a 4 point home victory against Liberty, a team that got crushed by ODU and Clemson). They have a ton of potential and a mountain of inexperience. It will take one of Coach Larranaga's best efforts to date to turn this team into a bubble worthy group.

The three key players Coach L will be relying on to help them early on are Cam Long, a junior combo guard, Ryan Pearson, a skilled, tough sophomore power forward and another sophomore, Mike Morrison, a long armed dynamo who can finish around the rim with the best of them. Early on, they will rely on these 3 to give them a solid contribution every night. But that is hardly all they have. On any given night, the Patriots may receive major contributions from a group of talented freshman that may be as good as any group of freshman in the country. This group is actually being lead right now by one of the more unheralded signings, small forward Luke Hancock, who is giving them smooth, excellent play from a true freshman. He can shoot the rock, he can certainly pass the rock as well as anyone on the team, and is really going to contribute early on. They are also getting good contributions early on from possibly their two most talented freshmen, forward Kevin Foster and guard Sherrod Wright. Add in the very good play of sophomore point guard Andre Cornelius and you have the nucleus of what should be one of the best teams in mid-major land for the next several years.

Overall, the Patriots may take some lumps early, and they missed a crucial opportunity to establish themselves as a contender NOW for an at-large by losing at the last second to Villanova, but over the course of the season, this team could play itself into contention if they are able to keep up the solid play from their very young team. They have two more crucial tests coming up soon, both winnable games for the talented Patriots, home games against Creighton and Dayton. Were they to win both of those games and put up a good record in the rugged CAA this year, they could be squarely on the bubble come tourney time. A high profile Bracketbuster game could also help at the end of the season, much like it did at the end of 05-06 when the Patriots went to the Final 4. Where they to make the NCAA tourney, they have the athleticism and talent to pull a first round shocker, but probably lack the experience necessary to repeat what they did in 05-06. In a few years? You never know.

Illinois State Redbirds

The Redbirds looked like a NCAA tourney team last year, starting the season with 14 straight wins. Unfortunately, their relatively weak OOC schedule did nothing to prepare them for the rugged Missouri Valley regular season, in which they managed to finish with a respectable but not nearly impressive enough 11-7 record which kept them from dancing last year. This year's OOC schedule is a little more meaty, with a game against a very good Niagara team, a solid Ohio team and a tough road contest against Utah in the MVC-MWC challenge. Those 3 games should give Coach Tim Jankovich's team a good lead into MVC play and should have the Redbirds ready this year for a very tough Valley conference this year. A solid Bracketbuster game should also help boost their resume towards the end of the year.

The Redbirds are led by All-MVC guard Osiris Eldridge, who most people recognize by his stylish Mohawk, but real college basketball fans know him because of his tremendous scoring ability. The 6"3 guard has the ability to stroke the longball, but also can attack the rim and has a midrange game comparable to almost any shooting guard in the country. Eldridge is not alone however, as he is part of a solid trio of seniors who will help lead the Redbirds this year. The other two senior leaders are point guard Lloyd Phillips and forward  Dinma Odiakosa. Their experience will be crucial in helping the Redbirds slug it out with the top teams in the MVC this year. Road wins are hard to come by in the MVC, so having 3 senior leaders who have played in these tough environments before is really a valuable asset. They will help the two main newcomers to the Redbirds lineup, Juco transfer forward Tony Lewis, a tough big man in the middle who adds some much needed size and freshman Austin Hill, the third guard in Illinois St.'s 3 guard lineup. They have a solid starting 5 and some decent depth coming off the bench,

All in all though, the Redbirds will go as far as Eldridge takes them. The early favorite for MVC player of the year, Eldridge will be looked too for game winning shots, early leadership in the beefed up OOC schedule and throughout the year in what should be a multi-bid MVC. Solid contributions will be needed from an experienced team and solid cast of supporting characters, but with Champ Oguchi gone, Eldridge will be the unquestioned leader and the Redbirds will his team to lead to victory. Right now, Illinois St. is a bubble team with some solid opportunities in the next few weeks to play themselves into the NCAA tourney. Were they to do so, they would really have to play a great game in order to advance out of the first round as they would likely not be higher than a 11 or 12 seed due to their decent but not great OOC schedule. Osiris Eldridge has the ability to lead them to a first round upset, but Tourneybubble does not see them being able to advance much further than that.

The CAA is going to be an absolute war this year, quite possibly going down to the very last weekend to settle things. Look for VCU, GMU, ODU and Northeastern to pull off at least a few upsets in the non-conference portion of their schedules. The CAA tournament in Richmond is going to be epic.

 Do any coaches live off their reputation more than Jim Boheim and Gary Williams? The two most overrated coaches in basketball. Hall of famers according to their fans, I wouldn't trust either of them to coach my son's elementary basketball team, and I don't even have a kid, nor do elementary schools have basketball teams. So there you go.

 My early, early Final 4 prediction: The last 4 teams left in the tournament, 1 from each of the 4 regions, will make the Final 4 (more to come later).

 The Pac 10 sucks. It sucks in football, it sucks in college basketball, when does it officially lose BCS status? If 1 team from the Pac 10 makes the Sweet 16, I will be very surprised. Maybe Washington, and only if they are given an easy road (no playing top level mid-majors in the opening round).

 Kentucky really impresses me, no one cheats like the Bluegrass Wildcats.

Thank god for college basketball season, because college football is really, really, really boring this year. I mean, unless you like rooting for asshats like Urban Meyer or Nick Saban, in which case, this is your year, but for me, college basketball is it, mostly because they actually have a playoff to determine who is the best team.

 Stay tuned for our big season preview....no really, think Jamie Dixon's ego big, think Rick Pitino's embarassment big, hell, think Billy Packer's puckered anus big.....I bet you can't wait now can you? Yeah, me either.

The last 4 teams into the tournament, from my line of thinking are:

 Creighton, Minnesota, Wisconsin, San Diego St

Creighton has the best at-large resume of any of the remaining teams left in the at-large pool. They should get in on the strength of their body of work.

Minnesota is next on that list, having ZERO bad losses and several big time wins, including Illinois and potential number 1 seed Louisville. Tubby will be dancing.

Wisconsin got hot down the stretch, winning some big games, beating Illinois and sweeping Michigan (a pretty good lock to get into the NCAA tourney). Losing in the quarterfinals to Ohio St. did them no favors, but on the strength of their wins, they probably will earn a spot.

 Finally, we come to San Diego St. A team that had to play their asses off in the MWC tourney just to get into the at-large discussion. By beating BYU and UNLV in the conference tourney and playing Utah down to the wire, they probably did enough to get in. The losses to other bubble teams Arizona and St. Mary's don't help them, but they pulled off quite a few conference wins and gave a good enough accounting of themselves in the MWC tourney to deserve a bid. They are the last team into the big dance.

First 4 teams that will be left out of the NCAA tournament -

Maryland, St. Mary's, Penn St., Arizona

Maryland might just have squeaked into the NCAA's with their upset of Wake and trip to the ACC Final. However, upon further review, they have the two worst losses of any bubble team when you consider they lost to UVA and Morgan St. at home. However, beating Mich. St., UNC and Wake could put them into the tourney and outweigh those terrible losses. Maryland will be an interesting case in the eyes of the committee and it really only comes down to how much emphasis they put on the big wins and the ACC tourney run vs. the bad losses and the mediocre conference play. It wouldn't surprise me too much if they got in instead of Wisconsin or San Diego St.

 St. Mary's (and Davidson to a smaller measure) are a perfect example of why I believe that the NCAA tourney should adopt a play-in game for the last bubble teams into the tourney. Who wouldn't want to watch St. Mary's, with a HEALTHY Patty Mills, play Maryland or Davidson, with a healthy Steph Curry, play Minnesota with EVERYTHING on the line? Unfortunately, since there is no chance of that happening anytime soon, St. Mary's will most likely be left out of the tournament despite finishing second in their conference and losing in their conference final to a top 15 team. Getting swept by Gonzaga all 3 games was a killer and even though they beat a very good Utah State team WITHOUT Patty Mills, they just do not have enough quality wins to justify them getting into the tourney. However, that raises the debate about how they are supposed to get Top 25 and Top 50 wins when no BCS teams will take the chance to play them, especially at St. Mary's. Their best OOC wins were again against non-BCS powers, San Diego St. and Utah State, both teams that should get into the NCAA tourney. If their was a play-in game, they would finally get a chance to play a BCS team and prove that they can beat them and deserve to be in. We can always hope.

 Penn St. has too many losses to solid, but not great teams, to deserve an at-large bid. Had they beaten Purdue in the Big 10 tourney, it might have been enough to move them past some of the other bubble teams ahead of them, but losing in the quaterfinals of your conference when you only finished 10-8 in the regular season, coupled with some dissapointing losses, just isn't going to do it. Losing to Temple and Rhode Island, when they are the two best teams you played OOC, doesn't make you resume very impressive. Couple that with a bad loss at the end of the season to Iowa and a sweep by Wisconsin and you have your reasons to leave Penn St. out of the tournament.

 Arizona is another interesting case study for the selection committee. Great wins (Gonzaga, Kansas, San Diego St., UCLA, Washington) some bad losses, especially OOC (UAB, UNLV, Texas A&M, Stanford, Washington St.) a sub .500 conference record (if you include the first round loss to Arizona St.) and a mediocre overall record (19-13). Will the good wins and tough schedule be enough to carry them into the tournament despite playing in a weaker Pac-10 conference than in recent years? In my opinion, no it will not.

Winners -  

Va Tech - Very impressive win over Miami, thoroughly dominating another bubble team and essentially eliminating a fellow bubble competitor. Not only did they help their cause tremendously, they did every other team on the bubble a huge favor.

Michigan – Looked very good in a must win game over Iowa. They are pretty much a lock at this point, but one more win certainly wouldn’t hurt.

Minnesota – Took care of another bubble team in Northwestern (eliminating them from contention) and further helped their cause. One more win would virtually assure them a spot in the big dance.

San Diego St. – The Aztecs took it to another good bubble squad in UNLV today, leading from start to finish and looking very impressive while doing it. If you ask me, they should be in now, but knocking off BYU in the semifinals would make it a certainty.

Davidson – How can Davidson be a winner today you ask? Because that WVU win is looking better and better the further WVU advances into the Big East tournament. WVU knocking off Pitt was huge today for Davidson, not just for the few extra RPI and SOS points, but because it puts WVU one game closer to the Championship. If WVU is able to win the Big East tourney, Davidson becomes a much better at-large candidate. If you are a Davidson fan, you better get your Mountaineer gear on.

Losers -  

Arizona – When you are 19-12, the last thing you want to do is lose in the quarterfinals of your conference tournament. Not surprisingly, that is exactly what Arizona did, thus putting themselves on the outside of the bubble looking in. Arizona would need a minor miracle to get in at this point in the discussion.

Providence – Thoroughly dominated by a fantastic Louisville squad, but didn’t show nearly enough of an effort to garner some sympathy votes. A big disappointment with it all on the line and are definitely on the outside looking in.Miami – In a statement game against Va Tech today, they certainly did make a statement. That statement is, “we do not belong in the NCAA tourney”. Watch out for them in the NIT though. 

UNLV – Honestly, I still feel the Rebs are a NCAA tourney team. This year, the MWC is a vastly superior conference in quality and depth to BCS leagues like the SEC and Big Ten. Whether they get that respect from the tourney selection committee remains to be seen, however, I feel that they would be a dangerous team in the tournament. However, by losing today (and you can throw New Mexico in this conversation with them), they did themselves no favors. Most will look at these losses as disappointing and proof that New Mexico and UNLV don’t deserve to get in. However, I look at it encouragingly, showing that the MWC has incredible depth and quite a few teams capable of winning in the tourney.  

Come back tomorrow for analysis of when the big boys come out in the ACC, SEC, and Big 10, the A-10 and MWC tourneys heat up and the Big East tourney continues to be the best tournament in the country.  

You can now remove both Cincy and Georgetown from the bubble. Both have very slight chances of recieving at-large bids, but after they both lost in the opening rounds of the Big East tourney, those chances are done.

Cincinnati had very, very slim hopes of making the tourney as an at-large, predicated on them winning at least 2 or 3 games in the Big East tourney to get to 20 wins. The feeling was, if they got to 20 wins, they could parlay that with some of their solid in conference wins and solid OOC wins (UAB, UNLV), they might be able to sneak back into the very end of the bubble. They are now dead and buried after losing to Depaul today in the opening round.

 Same goes for Georgetown. While they had a bad record 16-13, they have some extremely impressive wins, both OOC (Maryland, Memphis) and even better wins in-conference (at UConn, Syracuse, Nova). But the feeling was, they had a poor conference record and needed to win at least 2 games in the Big East tourney to get onto the bubble. Losing to St. John's today killed their at-large chances.

 The bubble is starting to take shape, stay tuned for further updates as teams play themselves in or out of the bubble all week long.