Finally, they are dead.  UConn - the lumbering, stumbling, overrated, potential bid-stealing giant - has been put out of its misery.  Like an ax-wielding maniac in a bad horror movie, they kept coming back and popping up on at-large lists despite losing game after game.  Heroic St. Johns provided the 22-point shotgun blast to the face that provided the deathblow to the villain Huskies and ended the suffering of Bubble World once and for all.  UConn is done, and will not get an at-large.  Roll the end credits.

Today South Florida and Seton Hall are playing for their tournament lives, but Seton Hall has the better profile and an easier game against Notre Dame.  Butler's Horizon championship means that the number of bids up for grabs remains at five, which is excellent news for the bubblers.  Utah State is now the last mid-major at-large candidate to play their conference tournament, and Bubble World will be cheering them on to create what would be a perfect mid-major storm - all of their best at-large candidates have received automatic bids so far.  That means that many teams can jump into the at-large picture with good weeks at their conference tournaments.

The Field
(57 Bids)

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Atlantic 10: Temple, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette
Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Conference USA: UTEP
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
Mountain West: New Mexico, BYU
Pac-10: Auto*
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West Coast: St. Mary's*, Gonzaga
Ivy: Cornell*
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State*
OVC: Murray State*
Big South: Winthrop*
WAC: Auto*
CAA: Old Dominion*
Horizon: Butler*
MAAC: Siena*
MAC: Auto*
SoCon: Wofford*
Big Sky: Auto*
Big West: Auto*
Sun Belt: North Texas*
Summit: Oakland*
America East: Auto*
Southland: Auto*
Patriot: Auto*
NEC: Auto*
MEAC: Auto*
SWAC: Auto*

* Denotes Automatic Bid Winner

Near Locks (3): Notre Dame, UNLV, California

Remaining Bids Available (5)

Bubble (18): Georgia Tech, Dayton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, South Florida, Illinois, UAB, Memphis, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona State, Washington, Florida, Mississippi State, Mississippi, William & Mary, Kent State, Minnesota



ACC  

Locks:  Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Georgia Tech (18-11, 7-9 RPI 44):  It is officially time to start worrying if you are the Jackets - again.  The home loss to Virginia Tech is devastating, and could put GT on the wrong side of the bubble.  Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke help the Jackets, but a 1-7 ACC road record hurts badly.  Wins at Charlotte and vs. Siena are the highlights of an ok nonconference performance.  They are 4-8 vs. top-50 foes, and are 8-9 vs. the top-100.  They draw talented but troubled North Carolina in the first round of the ACC tournament, and a loss there would be a deathblow.  A win means a potential bid-clinching shot at Maryland.

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Rhode Island (22-8, 10-7 RPI 41): The Rams beat St. Jospeh's to set up a quarterfinal showdown with St. Louis.  Winning at least that game is essential, and they probably have to knock off Temple as well to get into the field.  Their at-large hopes depend on a very good A-10 tournament showing. They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play.  They are 6-6 vs. and they are 2-3 vs. top-50 foes.  They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts.  Losses to St. Bonaventure and UMass down the stretch were nearly fatal.  The win at Dayton could come in handy if the two teams are compared.
Dayton (20-11, 9-8 RPI 51): The Flyers beat George Washington in the first round of the A-10 tournament, setting up a must-win quarterfinal with Xavier.  They need that game, plus probably at least one more upset to have a chance at an at-large.  They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 5-9 vs. top-100 foes.  They need a minimum of two upsets at the A-10 tournament to have a chance now.

Treading Water: None

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette

Near Locks:
Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8 RPI 58):  Wins vs. Pitt, UConn and at Georgetown and Marquette have rescued the Irish from the depths of the bubble.  Doing it without All-American forward Luke Harongody is remarkable.   A bad home loss to Loyola Marymount is an eyesore.  They are 10-7 vs. the top-100, and have three sub-100 losses.  10 top-100 wins seperates them from the rest of the field for now, and the winning streak to end the regular season should push the Irish to an at-large no matter what happens at the Big East tournament.  They have enough quality wins as of right now to be solidly in the field. 

Bubble:
Seton Hall (19-11, 10-9 RPI 54):  The Pirates barely held onto a 29-point lead to get past Providence in the Big East tournament, setting up a date with Notre Dame in the second round.  If they win that, they would be in pretty good shape for an at-large.  They had a brutal schedule, but can't show much more than a nice home wins over Lousiville and Pittsburgh to the selection committee.   An incredible 8 of their losses have come at the hands of the top-50, and they are 6-11 against the top-100.  How will the committee treat a teams whose worst loss came to South Florida?  The bubble has room, and suddenly the Pirates are a victory over Notre Dame away from having a serious shot at an at-large.
South Florida (20-11, 10-9 RPI 64):  The Bulls beat DePaul to earn a potential bid-clincing shot at Georgetown. They have a good win at Georgetown and a home win over Pitt, offset somewhat by a bad home loss to Central Michigan (RPI 191).  They also beat Seton Hall in their only matcup of the season.  Who knows-two more wins and some help elsewhere could put the Bulls right on the verge of an at-large.  If they can't beat Georgetown, there is little hope of getting a bid.

Treading Water: none

Big Ten

Locks:  Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State 

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Illinois (18-13, 10-8 RPI 75): The Illini are almost guaranteed to spend selection sunday in a virtual sauna after losing at home to Wisconsin, which is their 13th loss of the season.  While 10-8 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are an ok 4-8 vs. the top-50 and are 6-11 against the top-100.  Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not.  Can the good wins outweigh the bad losses?  We will see.  The Illini better beat Wisconsin or the committee will have to justify an at-large to a team with an 75+ RPI and 14 losses.
Minnesota (18-12, 9-9 RPI 78): The Gophers climb back to the bubble after room cleared above them.  They probably need at least a trip to the Big Ten finals to have a chance, as they are just 4-7 vs. the top-100 and have five sub-100 losses, including getting swept by Michigan (including a recent 28-point shellacking) and losing at Indiana.  Wins over Butler, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nice, but they still need to do some major damage to get the committee's attention.

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State

Near Locks: None

Bubble: None

 Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Locks: UTEP

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UAB (23-7, 11-5 RPI 40):   UAB suffered a crushing home loss at UTEP and now are in danger of missing the dance.  They are now a clear third in the CUSA pecking order - which is not a good thing.  They are 5-6 vs. the top-100, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play - but those are probably their last solid wins.  They have to get to the CUSA final to expect an at-large, and that means beating Memphis in the process.
Memphis (22-8, 13-3 RPI 46):  The Tigers crushed Tulsa to complete the regular season, and are strong contenders for an at-large.  They are 7-5 vs. the top-100, are 2-4 vs. the top-50 but have three sub-100 losses.  Despite a challenging schedule, they lack any significant nonconference wins other than IUPUI and Oakland - neither of which will catch the committee's attention.  They need at least a trip to the CUSA title game to feel good about their chances, especially if that means grabbing a third win over UAB.  WHile the resume isnt stellar, they are winning while other bubble teams are tripping over their own feet. 

Treading Water: None  

Missouri Valley

Locks: Northern Iowa (Auto-Bid)

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Wichita State (24-9, 14-7 RPI 45): The Shockers are a true bubble team, sporting a 10-6 top-100 record offset by three sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville squad.  They have one top-50 win, over Northern Iowa.  Their best nonconference win was over Texas Tech.  Their chances depend on how the committee perceives the MVC - do the 50-100 RPI wins they racked up score the same points for Wichita as they do for BCS schools?  More than anything, they will be hurt by the fact that their resume is complete and the rest of the bubble still has plenty of games to play.  It will take some bubble carnage for them to slip in the tournament, but anything is possible.

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks: New Mexico, BYU

Near Locks:
UNLV (22-7, 11-5 RPI 47): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in good shape for an at-large.  They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU.  A sweep by Utah hurts.  A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win will be more than enough.  Given the quality of the bubble, UNLV is way ahead of the curve right now.

Bubble:
San Diego State (20-8, 11-5 RPI 36): Continue to color me skeptical about San Diego State's chances.  The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality.  They are 2-5 vs. the top-50 and 3-7 overall against the top-100.  Despite the strong computer numbers, the resume really doesn't hold up against most other teams in consideration.  More than anything, other teams collapsing down the stretch can help them.  They need at least one upset at the MWC tournament to feel good about an at-large.  One more bad loss between now and then, and they are done.  They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Locks: None

Near Locks:
California (21-9, 13-5 RPI 20); The Bears won the Pac-10 regular season title and can breathe a little easier.  Despite 3 sub-100 losses and a mediocre 5-6 top-100 record, winning a major conference and scheduling ambitiously out of conference should be enough to go dancing.

Bubble:
Arizona State (21-9, 12-6 RPI 53):  The Sun Devils are still inot out of the water even with a 12-6 Pac-10 record, as they are sitting at 3-7 vs. the top-100.  Their best win is vs. San Diego State.  A trip to the Pac-10 final might be enough to garner good buzz for an at-large.  They could sneak up the pecking order if some teams around them stumble, but for right now their biggest positive is a good record in a pretty bad BCS league.  They split with fellow Pac-10 bubbler Washington, and may be behind them resume-wise.
Washington (21-9, 11-7 RPI 49):  The Huskies remain in the mix for an at-large but still have plenty of work to do.  They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 6-5 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses.   Should they meet Arizona State in the semis of the Pac-10 tournament, the game would serve as an eliminator, but it wouldn't necessarily guarantee the winner an at-large.

Treading Water: None

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Tennesssee, Vanderbilt 

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Florida (20-11, 9-7 RPI 52):  The Gators really are reeling after dropping their last three regular season games.  They are 3-8 vs. the top-50 and 8-10 against the top-100.  They need to avoid losing their first SEC tournament game, and could really use at least a couple wins to feel safe.  Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not. 
Mississippi State (21-10, 9-7 RPI 69): After getting smoked at home by Tennessee, the Bulldogs need a run to the SEC final to have any chance at an at-large.  Five sub-100 losses put them decidedly on the wrong side of the bubble.  Their OOC win over ODU is pretty nice, but other than a sweep of Ole Miss there isnt much else on the resume.
Mississippi (21-9, 9-7 RPI 57):  The Rebels got by Arkansas to stay in contention.  They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins.  Getting swept by Mississippi State means the Rebels may need to win two or three SEC tournament games to have a chance - they still lack a high-quality conference win.  The Kansas State win lost a little luster over the weekend.

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks: St. Mary's (Auto-bid), Gonzaga

Near Locks: None

Bubble: None

Treading Water: None

Others

Locks: None

Near Locks: None

Bubble: 
Utah State (24-6, 14-2 RPI 32-WAC):  A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 9-4 record vs. the top-100.  Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt.  They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance.  Right now, its tough to argue that they don't deserve an at-large if they really need it.  Ask yourself this - if not Utah State, who would you give a bid to?
William & Mary (21-10, 14-7 RPI 56-CAA):  The Tribe fell to ODU in the CAA final and are likely heading to the NIT.  They are 5-7 vs. the top-100, and have great wins over Richmond, at Wake Forest and at Maryland.  They are a lot closer to an at-large than people think, but those three sub-200 losses are absolutely killer.  If they had won any of those three games, they would be making their dance plans right now. 
Kent State (22-8, 13-3 RPI 42-MAC):  Its unfortunate that Kent State's run up at-large boards has been coupled with their best win (over UAB) losing its luster over the last two weeks.  Three sub-100 losses overshadow a 6-5 top-100 record.

The Bubble can breathe a little easier, since three top-50 RPI teams are safely in the field and out of the at-large pool.  While the number of available bids did not increase, Old Dominion and St. Mary's were very strong candidates and both likely would have received an at-large bid.  Bubblers must now cheer for Butler to win the Horizon tonight and Utah State to win the WAC tournament over the weekend.  Elsewhere, Big East bubblers South Florida and Seton Hall are in action in the first round of the Big East tournament, where neither can afford a loss.

The Field
(57 Bids)

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Atlantic 10: Temple, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette
Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Conference USA: UTEP
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
Mountain West: New Mexico, BYU
Pac-10: Auto*
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West Coast: St. Mary's*, Gonzaga
Ivy: Cornell*
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State*
OVC: Murray State*
Big South: Winthrop*
WAC: Auto*
CAA: Old Dominion*
Horizon: Butler
MAAC: Siena*
MAC: Auto*
SoCon: Wofford*
Big Sky: Auto*
Big West: Auto*
Sun Belt: Auto*
Summit: Auto*
America East: Auto*
Southland: Auto*
Patriot: Auto*
NEC: Auto*
MEAC: Auto*
SWAC: Auto*

* Denotes Automatic Bid Winner

Near Locks (3): Notre Dame, UNLV, California

Remaining Bids Available (5)

Bubble (18): Georgia Tech, Dayton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, South Florida, Illinois, UAB, Memphis, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona State, Washington, Florida, Mississippi State, Mississippi, William & Mary, Kent State, Minnesota



ACC  

Locks:  Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Georgia Tech (18-11, 7-9 RPI 44):  It is officially time to start worrying if you are the Jackets - again.  The home loss to Virginia Tech is devastating, and could put GT on the wrong side of the bubble.  Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke help the Jackets, but a 1-7 ACC road record hurts badly.  Wins at Charlotte and vs. Siena are the highlights of an ok nonconference performance.  They are 4-8 vs. top-50 foes, and are 8-9 vs. the top-100.  They draw talented but troubled North Carolina in the first round of the ACC tournament, and a loss there would be a deathblow.  A win means a potential bid-clinching shot at Maryland.

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Rhode Island (21-8, 9-7 RPI 39): The Rams suffered a damaging loss at UMass, their second sub-100 loss in a week.  Their at-large hopes depend on a very good A-10 tournament showing. They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play.  They are 8-6 vs. the top-100, but that includes a few so-so nonconference wins, and they are 2-3 vs. top-50 foes.  They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts. 
Dayton (19-11, 8-8 RPI 51): The Flyers fell at home to St. Louis and now have very slim chances at an at-large.  The A-10 is a great league, but 8-8 won't really impress the committee.  They probably have to spring a couple upsets on their way to the A-10 title game to be back on the good side of the bubble.  They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 4-9 vs. top-100 foes.  They need a minimum of two upsets at the A-10 tournament to have a chance now.

Treading Water: None

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette

Near Locks:
Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8 RPI 59):  Wins vs. Pitt, UConn and at Georgetown and Marquette have rescued the Irish from the depths of the bubble.  Doing it without All-American forward Luke Harongody is remarkable.   A bad home loss to Loyola Marymount is an eyesore.  They are 10-7 vs. the top-100, and have three sub-100 losses.  10 top-100 wins seperates them from the rest of the field for now, and the winning streak to end the regular season should push the Irish to an at-large no matter what happens at the Big East tournament.  They have enough quality wins as of right now to be solidly in the field. 

Bubble:
Seton Hall (18-11, 9-9 RPI 55):  The Pirates are on the fringe of the at-large discussion only if they can finish 9-9 in the Big East.  They had a brutal schedule, but can't show much more than a nice home wins over Lousiville and Pittsburgh to the selection committee.   An incredible 8 of their losses have come at the hands of the top-50, and they are 6-11 against the top-100.  How will the committee treat a teams whose worst loss came to RPI 63 South Florida?  A couple wins at the Big East tournament will help immensly,and that paired with a killer SOS could get the Pirates into the tournament.
South Florida (19-11, 9-9 RPI 63):  THe Bulls beat UConn to jump back on the bubble.  They still have some work to do at the Big East tournament, where they need at least two wins, with one preferably being an upset.  They have a good win at Georgetown and a home win over Pitt, offset somewhat by a bad home loss to Central Michigan (RPI 191).  They also beat Seton Hall in their only matcup of the season.  Who knows-two more wins and some help elsewhere could put the Bulls right on the verge of an at-large.

Treading Water: none

Big Ten

Locks:  Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State 

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Illinois (18-13, 10-8 RPI 75): The Illini are almost guaranteed to spend selection sunday in a virtual sauna after losing at home to Wisconsin, which is their 13th loss of the season.  While 10-8 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are an ok 4-8 vs. the top-50 and are 6-11 against the top-100.  Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not.  Can the good wins outweigh the bad losses?  We will see.  The Illini better beat Wisconsin or the committee will have to justify an at-large to a team with an 75+ RPI and 14 losses.
Minnesota (18-12, 9-9 RPI 78): The Gophers climb back to the bubble after room cleared above them.  They probably need at least a trip to the Big Ten finals to have a chance, as they are just 4-7 vs. the top-100 and have five sub-100 losses, including getting swept by Michigan (including a recent 28-point shellacking) and losing at Indiana.  Wins over Butler, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nice, but they still need to do some major damage to get the committee's attention.

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State

Near Locks: None

Bubble: None

 Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Locks: UTEP

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UAB (23-7, 11-5 RPI 40):   UAB suffered a crushing home loss at UTEP and now are in danger of missing the dance.  They are now a clear third in the CUSA pecking order - which is not a good thing.  They are 5-6 vs. the top-100, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play - but those are probably their last solid wins.  They have to get to the CUSA final to expect an at-large, and that means beating Memphis in the process.
Memphis (22-8, 13-3 RPI 46):  The Tigers crushed Tulsa to complete the regular season, and are strong contenders for an at-large.  They are 7-5 vs. the top-100, are 2-4 vs. the top-50 but have three sub-100 losses.  Despite a challenging schedule, they lack any significant nonconference wins other than IUPUI and Oakland - neither of which will catch the committee's attention.  They need at least a trip to the CUSA title game to feel good about their chances, especially if that means grabbing a third win over UAB.  WHile the resume isnt stellar, they are winning while other bubble teams are tripping over their own feet. 

Treading Water: None  

Missouri Valley

Locks: Northern Iowa (Auto-Bid)

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Wichita State (24-9, 14-7 RPI 45): The Shockers are a true bubble team, sporting a 10-6 top-100 record offset by three sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville squad.  They have one top-50 win, over Northern Iowa.  Their best nonconference win was over Texas Tech.  Their chances depend on how the committee perceives the MVC - do the 50-100 RPI wins they racked up score the same points for Wichita as they do for BCS schools?  More than anything, they will be hurt by the fact that their resume is complete and the rest of the bubble still has plenty of games to play.  It will take some bubble carnage for them to slip in the tournament, but anything is possible.

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks: New Mexico, BYU

Near Locks:
UNLV (22-7, 11-5 RPI 47): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in good shape for an at-large.  They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU.  A sweep by Utah hurts.  A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win will be more than enough.  Given the quality of the bubble, UNLV is way ahead of the curve right now.

Bubble:
San Diego State (20-8, 11-5 RPI 36): Continue to color me skeptical about San Diego State's chances.  The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality.  They are 2-5 vs. the top-50 and 3-7 overall against the top-100.  Despite the strong computer numbers, the resume really doesn't hold up against most other teams in consideration.  More than anything, other teams collapsing down the stretch can help them.  They need at least one upset at the MWC tournament to feel good about an at-large.  One more bad loss between now and then, and they are done.  They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Locks: None

Near Locks:
California (21-9, 13-5 RPI 20); The Bears won the Pac-10 regular season title and can breathe a little easier.  Despite 3 sub-100 losses and a mediocre 5-6 top-100 record, winning a major conference and scheduling ambitiously out of conference should be enough to go dancing.

Bubble:
Arizona State (21-9, 12-6 RPI 53):  The Sun Devils are still inot out of the water even with a 12-6 Pac-10 record, as they are sitting at 3-7 vs. the top-100.  Their best win is vs. San Diego State.  A trip to the Pac-10 final might be enough to garner good buzz for an at-large.  They could sneak up the pecking order if some teams around them stumble, but for right now their biggest positive is a good record in a pretty bad BCS league.  They split with fellow Pac-10 bubbler Washington, and may be behind them resume-wise.
Washington (21-9, 11-7 RPI 49):  The Huskies remain in the mix for an at-large but still have plenty of work to do.  They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 6-5 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses.   Should they meet Arizona State in the semis of the Pac-10 tournament, the game would serve as an eliminator, but it wouldn't necessarily guarantee the winner an at-large.

Treading Water: None

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Tennesssee, Vanderbilt 

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Florida (20-11, 9-7 RPI 52):  The Gators really are reeling after dropping their last three regular season games.  They are 3-8 vs. the top-50 and 8-10 against the top-100.  They need to avoid losing their first SEC tournament game, and could really use at least a couple wins to feel safe.  Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not. 
Mississippi State (21-10, 9-7 RPI 69): After getting smoked at home by Tennessee, the Bulldogs need a run to the SEC final to have any chance at an at-large.  Five sub-100 losses put them decidedly on the wrong side of the bubble.  Their OOC win over ODU is pretty nice, but other than a sweep of Ole Miss there isnt much else on the resume.
Mississippi (21-9, 9-7 RPI 57):  The Rebels got by Arkansas to stay in contention.  They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins.  Getting swept by Mississippi State means the Rebels may need to win two or three SEC tournament games to have a chance - they still lack a high-quality conference win.  The Kansas State win lost a little luster over the weekend.

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks: St. Mary's (Auto-bid), Gonzaga

Near Locks: None

Bubble: None

Treading Water: None

Others

Locks: Butler

Near Locks: None

Bubble: 
Utah State (24-6, 14-2 RPI 32-WAC):  A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 9-4 record vs. the top-100.  Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt.  They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance.  Right now, its tough to argue that they don't deserve an at-large if they really need it.  Ask yourself this - if not Utah State, who would you give a bid to?
William & Mary (21-10, 14-7 RPI 56-CAA):  The Tribe fell to ODU in the CAA final and are likely heading to the NIT.  They are 5-7 vs. the top-100, and have great wins over Richmond, at Wake Forest and at Maryland.  They are a lot closer to an at-large than people think, but those three sub-200 losses are absolutely killer.  If they had won any of those three games, they would be making their dance plans right now. 
Kent State (22-8, 13-3 RPI 42-MAC):  Its unfortunate that Kent State's run up at-large boards has been coupled with their best win (over UAB) losing its luster over the last two weeks.  Three sub-100 losses overshadow a 6-5 top-100 record.

During the infancy of Comedy Central, an early-90's Sinbad standup special from Atlanta used to run about four times a week.  While his jogging suit may be a bit dated - many of his words still ring true.  In describing his college experience he said (I'm paraphrasing here):  "I went to college with five girls.  Five ugly girls.  But by Christmas break, they weren't looking too bad.  By spring break - they were fine!"  The longer teams hang around in the at-large conversation, the better they seem to look to the experts.  That pretty much sums up what we have happening with the Pac-10, where Washington and Arizona State are popping up on mock brackets and Last Four In lists.  Arizona State beat (at home, mind you) USC and UCLA this week, which in some crazy parallel universe improved their profile over teams who lost to actual good teams (Florida and UAB).  This happens every year in predicting the NCAA tournament, and it never ceases to amaze me.  Regardless of what people say, the teams in the bubble are NOT seperated by one game.  The bubble is not as fluid as many claim it is, and wins and losses cause a lot less movement than you would think.  In this "what have you done for me today?" world, its tempting to change the at-larges as the wind blows, but its not realistic.  Take a step back, look at the resumes again and then give me a good reason why Arizona State is over UAB or Florida right now.  I won't hold my breath, Lunardi.

The Field
(56 Bids)

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Atlantic 10: Temple, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette
Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Conference USA: UTEP
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
Mountain West: New Mexico, UNLV
Pac-10: Auto*
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West Coast: Gonzaga
Ivy: Cornell*
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State*
OVC: Murray State*
Big South: Winthrop*
WAC: Auto*
CAA: Auto*
Horizon: Butler
MAAC: Auto*
MAC: Auto*
SoCon: Auto*
Big Sky: Auto*
Big West: Auto*
Sun Belt: Auto*
Summit: Auto*
America East: Auto*
Southland: Auto*
Patriot: Auto*
NEC: Auto*
MEAC: Auto*
SWAC: Auto*

Near Locks (4): Notre Dame, UNLV, California, Old Dominion

Remaining Bids Available (5)

Bubble (19): Georgia Tech, Dayton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, South Florida, Illinois, UAB, Memphis, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona State, Washington, Florida, Mississippi State, Mississippi, St. Mary's, Siena, William & Mary, Kent State



ACC  

Locks:  Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Georgia Tech (18-11, 7-9 RPI 44):  It is officially time to start worrying if you are the Jackets - again.  The home loss to Virginia Tech is devastating, and could put GT on the wrong side of the bubble.  Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke help the Jackets, but a 1-7 ACC road record hurts badly.  Wins at Charlotte and vs. Siena are the highlights of an ok nonconference performance.  They are 4-8 vs. top-50 foes, and are 8-9 vs. the top-100.  They draw talented but troubled North Carolina in the first round of the ACC tournament, and a loss there would be a deathblow.  A win means a potential bid-clinching shot at Maryland.

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Rhode Island (21-8, 9-7 RPI 39): The Rams suffered a damaging loss at UMass, their second sub-100 loss in a week.  Their at-large hopes depend on a very good A-10 tournament showing. They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play.  They are 8-6 vs. the top-100, but that includes a few so-so nonconference wins, and they are 2-3 vs. top-50 foes.  They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts. 
Dayton (19-11, 8-8 RPI 51): The Flyers fell at home to St. Louis and now have very slim chances at an at-large.  The A-10 is a great league, but 8-8 won't really impress the committee.  They probably have to spring a couple upsets on their way to the A-10 title game to be back on the good side of the bubble.  They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 4-9 vs. top-100 foes.  They need a minimum of two upsets at the A-10 tournament to have a chance now.

Treading Water: None

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette

Near Locks:
Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8 RPI 57):  Wins vs. Pitt, UConn and at Georgetown and Marquette have rescued the Irish from the depths of the bubble.  Doing it without All-American forward Luke Harongody is remarkable.   A bad home loss to Loyola Marymount is an eyesore.  They are 10-7 vs. the top-100, and have three sub-100 losses.  10 top-100 wins seperates them from the rest of the field for now, and the winning streak to end the regular season should push the Irish to an at-large no matter what happens at the Big East tournament.  They have enough quality wins as of right now to be solidly in the field. 

Bubble:
Seton Hall (18-11, 9-9 RPI 54):  The Pirates are on the fringe of the at-large discussion only if they can finish 9-9 in the Big East.  They had a brutal schedule, but can't show much more than a nice home wins over Lousiville and Pittsburgh to the selection committee.   An incredible 8 of their losses have come at the hands of the top-50, and they are 6-11 against the top-100.  How will the committee treat a teams whose worst loss came to RPI 64 South Florida?  A couple wins at the Big East tournament will help immensly,and that paired with a killer SOS could get the Pirates into the tournament.
South Florida (19-11, 9-9 RPI 67):  THe Bulls beat UConn to jump back on the bubble.  They still have some work to do at the Big East tournament, where they need at least two wins, with one preferably being an upset.  They have a good win at Georgetown and a home win over Pitt, offset somewhat by a bad home loss to Central Michigan (RPI 191).  They also beat Seton Hall in their only matcup of the season.  Who knows-two more wins and some help elsewhere could put the Bulls right on the verge of an at-large.

Treading Water: none

Big Ten

Locks:  Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State 

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Illinois (18-13, 10-8 RPI 73): The Illini are almost guaranteed to spend selection sunday in a virtual sauna after losing at home to Wisconsin, which is their 13th loss of the season.  While 10-8 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are an ok 4-8 vs. the top-50 and are 6-11 against the top-100.  Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not.  Can the good wins outweigh the bad losses?  We will see.  The Illini better beat Wisconsin or the committee will have to justify an at-large to a team with an 75+ RPI and 14 losses.

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State

Near Locks: None

Bubble: None

 Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Locks: UTEP

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UAB (23-7, 11-5 RPI 40):   UAB suffered a crushing home loss at UTEP and now are in danger of missing the dance.  They are now a clear third in the CUSA pecking order - which is not a good thing.  They are 5-6 vs. the top-100, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play - but those are probably their last solid wins.  They have to get to the CUSA final to expect an at-large, and that means beating Memphis in the process.
Memphis (22-8, 13-3 RPI 48):  The Tigers crushed Tulsa to complete the regular season, and are strong contenders for an at-large.  They are 7-5 vs. the top-100, are 2-4 vs. the top-50 but have three sub-100 losses.  Despite a challenging schedule, they lack any significant nonconference wins other than IUPUI and Oakland - neither of which will catch the committee's attention.  They need at least a trip to the CUSA title game to feel good about their chances, especially if that means grabbing a third win over UAB.  WHile the resume isnt stellar, they are winning while other bubble teams are tripping over their own feet. 

Treading Water: None  

Missouri Valley

Locks: Northern Iowa (Auto-Bid)

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Wichita State (24-9, 14-7 RPI 43): The Shockers are a true bubble team, sporting a 10-6 top-100 record offset by three sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville squad.  They have one top-50 win, over Northern Iowa.  Their best nonconference win was over Texas Tech.  Their chances depend on how the committee perceives the MVC - do the 50-100 RPI wins they racked up score the same points for Wichita as they do for BCS schools?  More than anything, they will be hurt by the fact that their resume is complete and the rest of the bubble still has plenty of games to play.  It will take some bubble carnage for them to slip in the tournament, but anything is possible.

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks: New Mexico, BYU

Near Locks:
UNLV (22-7, 11-5 RPI 43): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in good shape for an at-large.  They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU.  A sweep by Utah hurts.  A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win will be more than enough.  Given the quality of the bubble, UNLV is way ahead of the curve right now.

Bubble:
San Diego State (20-8, 11-5 RPI 33): Continue to color me skeptical about San Diego State's chances.  The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality.  They are 2-5 vs. the top-50 and 3-7 overall against the top-100.  Despite the strong computer numbers, the resume really doesn't hold up against most other teams in consideration.  More than anything, other teams collapsing down the stretch can help them.  They need at least one upset at the MWC tournament to feel good about an at-large.  One more bad loss between now and then, and they are done.  They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Locks: None

Near Locks:
California (21-9, 13-5 RPI 22); The Bears won the Pac-10 regular season title and can breathe a little easier.  Despite 3 sub-100 losses and a mediocre 5-6 top-100 record, winning a major conference and scheduling ambitiously out of conference should be enough to go dancing.

Bubble:
Arizona State (21-9, 12-6 RPI 54):  The Sun Devils are still inot out of the water even with a 12-6 Pac-10 record, as they are sitting at 3-7 vs. the top-100.  Their best win is vs. San Diego State.  A trip to the Pac-10 final might be enough to garner good buzz for an at-large.  They could sneak up the pecking order if some teams around them stumble, but for right now their biggest positive is a good record in a pretty bad BCS league.  They split with fellow Pac-10 bubbler Washington, and may be behind them resume-wise.
Washington (21-9, 11-7 RPI 49):  The Huskies remain in the mix for an at-large but still have plenty of work to do.  They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 6-5 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses.   Should they meet Arizona State in the semis of the Pac-10 tournament, the game would serve as an eliminator, but it wouldn't necessarily guarantee the winner an at-large.

Treading Water: None

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Tennesssee, Vanderbilt 

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Florida (20-11, 9-7 RPI 53):  The Gators really are reeling after dropping their last three regular season games.  They are 3-8 vs. the top-50 and 8-10 against the top-100.  They need to avoid losing their first SEC tournament game, and could really use at least a couple wins to feel safe.  Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not. 
Mississippi State (21-10, 9-7 RPI 69): After getting smoked at home by Tennessee, the Bulldogs need a run to the SEC final to have any chance at an at-large.  Five sub-100 losses put them decidedly on the wrong side of the bubble.  Their OOC win over ODU is pretty nice, but other than a sweep of Ole Miss there isnt much else on the resume.
Mississippi (21-9, 9-7 RPI 56):  The Rebels got by Arkansas to stay in contention.  They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins.  Getting swept by Mississippi State means the Rebels may need to win two or three SEC tournament games to have a chance - they still lack a high-quality conference win.  The Kansas State win lost a little luster over the weekend.

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks: Gonzaga

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
St. Mary’s (24-5, 13-3 RPI 45):  A third date with Gonzaga looms tonight, and this one is to clinch the WCC’s automatic bid.  The Gaels have to feel pretty good about their chances if they cant get the win tonight, as the rest of the bubble have worse profiles.  The only worry would be bid-stealers or a number of teams going on deep conference tournament runs.  Nonconference wins at Utah State and vs. San Diego State are nice.  They are 6-4 vs. the top-100 and are 1-4 against the top-50.

Treading Water: None

Others

Locks: Butler

Near Locks:
Old Dominion (25-8, 17-3 RPI 37-CAA):  Beqating VCU in a quasi-road game in the CAA semifinals is probably enough to send ODU to the dance.  Now they draw William & Mary in the finals, and even a loss wouldn't hurt them too badly.  The safest thing to do is to lock up the automatic bid, but there really isnt a scenario in which they would be denied an at-large if they need it, considering the weakness of their competitors.  If you go down the checklist of what an at-large should be, the Monarchs seem to have a complete profile.  They scheduled the 7^th toughest OOC slate in the country, have a marquee win (at Georgetown) avoided bad losses (the worst is at George Mason), and have piled up a 7-7 top-100 record.  Maybe a 1-4 top-50 record will hurt them, but they are 6-3 vs. 50-100.  

Bubble: 
Siena (26-6, 19-1 RPI 38-MAAC): Although they have great computer numbers, the Saints would be very lucky to get an at-large.  Missing on all four chances at top-50 opponents is especially harmful despite their MAAC dominance.  With their best win being vs. Northeastern, they better win the MAAC tournament to go dancing.  They get their chance tonight.
Utah State (24-6, 14-2 RPI 31-WAC):  A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 9-4 record vs. the top-100.  Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt.  They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance.  Right now, its tough to argue that they don't deserve an at-large if they really need it.  Ask yourself this - if not Utah State, who would you give a bid to?
William & Mary (21-9, 14-6 RPI 58-CAA):  The Tribe survived two tense tournament games to advance to the CAA finals.  They likely need to win to have any chance at a bid.  They are 5-6 vs. the top-100, and have great wins over Richmond, at Wake Forest and at Maryland.  They are a lot closer to an at-large than people think, but those three sub-200 losses are absolutely killer.  If they had won any of those three games, they would be making their dance plans right now.  Their best chance at a bid comes tonight.
Kent State (22-8, 13-3 RPI 42-MAC):  Its unfortunate that Kent State's run up at-large boards has been coupled with their best win (over UAB) losing its luster over the last two weeks.  Three sub-100 losses overshadow a 6-5 top-100 record.

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ACC  

Locks:      

Near Locks:
Wake Forest (18-9, 8-7 RPI 34): Wake is also part of the one win and in club, despite their recent slide.  Wins over Georgia Tech, Maryland, Richmond and Xavier could put them in even if they can’t win vs. Clemson, but the four game losing streak is sinking them fast.  The overall body of work says they should be in, but we all know how the commitee treats season-ending losing streaks.

Bubble:
Virginia Tech (22-7, 9-6 RPI 53):  The Hokies remain on the cutline after taking care of NC State.  A virtual play-in game looms Saturday at Georgia Tech.  A low RPI is based on a very weak nonconference slate, although they did beat Seton Hall without Malcolm Delaney.  Three 9-7 ACC teams have missed the tournament – UVA in 2000, Florida State in 2006 and Virginia Tech in 2008, with only Tech missing out after an ACC tournament win.  Their top-100 records are fluid based on the lower ACC squads moving above and below the 100 threshold, and it now stands at 6-6, and their top-50 record is 2-4.  It remains to be seen if an opening round ACC game helps or hurts their chances.  Sweeping this week sends them dancing, but a split ensures a stressful selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech (18-10, 7-8 RPI 37):  It is officially time to start worrying if you are the Jackets.  They are likely to finish no higher than 7th in the ACC, and certainly don't want to draw surging North Carolina in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke help the Jackets, but a 1-7 ACC road record hurts a bit.  Wins at Charlotte and vs. Siena are the highlights of an ok nonconference performance.  Getting to 8-8 in conference should be enough, although their inconsistency might prevent that.  Everyone has Virginia Tech penciled in as a win, but the Hokies will also be fighting for their NCAA tournament lives.  They are 4-7 vs. top-50 foes, and are 8-8 vs. the top-100.  They dont want to test the commitee's patience by finishing 7-9 in conference play.
 

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Locks:   

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Rhode Island (21-7, 9-6 RPI 29): A dreadful loss at St. Bonaventure has the Rams in trouble, but blasting Charlotte off the bubble helps right the ship for now.  They need to win at UMass to really stay in the mix.  They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play.  They are 8-6 vs. the top-100, but that includes a few so-so nonconference wins, and they are 2-3 vs. top-50 foes.  They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts. 
Dayton (19-10, 8-7 RPI 41): The Flyers missed their shot at Richmond and are in serious trouble.  The A-10 is a great league, but 9-7 won't really impress the commitee.  They probably have to spring a couple upsets on their way to the A-10 title game to be back on the good side of the bubble.  They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 5-9 vs. top-100 foes.  Can a brutal schedule save a mediocre performance?  We will see.  They do have a couple quality wins that other cutline teams do not, which works in their favor.  While they are an NCAA-quality team, their performance at this point does not support an at-large bid.

Treading Water: None

Big East

Locks:       

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Louisville (19-11, 10-7 RPI 36): The Cardinals got drubbed at Marquette after a competitive first half, but still remain on the good side of the bubble for now.  They are 7-10 against the top-100 but that is against a SOS of 7, which will only go up with a game vs. Syracuse remaining.  The win at Syracuse is a nice feather in their cap and completing a sweep would surely send them dancing should they fall at Marquette.  It would take three straight losses to really make them worry about their chances, but they are staring at 10-8 in the Big East right now. 
Connecticut (17-13, 7-10 RPI 49): Seriously - can we give up on the Huskies?  They have had 11 chances at top-50 teams, and have won just three of them.  At some point they are just an average team that got an inordinate number of chances at marquee wins and capitalized on too few of them.  Getting swept by Louisville and Cincinnati have to hurt.  They have a SOS of 2 and three top-25 wins.  They are 3-8 overall against the top-50 and are 9-11 against the top-100.  Losses at Michigan and Providence are not helpful to the cause.
Notre Dame (20-10, 9-8 RPI 61):  Wins vs. Pitt, UConn and at Georgetown have rescued the Irish from the depths of the bubble.  Doing it without All-American forward Luke Harongody is remarkable.  A huge matchup with UConn could strengthen their case, and they end the season at Marquette.  If they can win at Marquette they should dance, but failing that they will need to rely on top-25 wins over West Virginia, Georgetown and Pitt.  A bad home loss to Loyola Marymount is an eyesore.  They are 9-7 vs. the top-100.  They have enough quality wins as of right now to be on the good side of the bubble. 
Seton Hall (17-11, 8-9 RPI 63):  The Pirates are on the fringe of the at-large discussion only if they can finish 9-9 in the Big East.  They had a brutal schedule, but can't show much more than a nice home win over Pittsburgh to the selection commitee.   An incredible 9 of their losses have come at the hands of the top-50, and they are 6-11 against the top-100.

Treading Water: South Florida (18-11, 8-9 RPI 67)    

Big Ten

Locks:       

Bubble:
Illinois (18-12, 10-7 RPI 72): The Illini are almost guaranteed to spend selection sunday in a virtual sauna after losing at Ohio State, which is their 12th loss of the season.  While 10-7 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are an ok 4-7 vs. the top-50 and 6-10 against the top-100.  Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not.  Can the good wins outweigh the bad losses?  We will see.  They better win either at home vs. Wisconsin or else they will make the committee justify an at-large to a team with an 80+ RPI and 13 losses.

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks:       

Near Locks:
Oklahoma State (20-9, 8-7 RPI 26): Oklahoma State got the biggest bubble win over the year by beating Kansas – only one more win will wrap up a bid, but four top-25 wins is probably enough if they hit the skids.  A home date with Nebraska should do the trick and send the Pokes dancing.

Bubble: None

Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Locks: None

Near Locks:
UTEP (23-5, 14-1 RPI 50): A big win at Marshall wrapped up the CUSA title and puts UTEP in good shape heading into a home date with fellow bubbler UAB.  If they win and complete a season sweep, they will be dancing since it will mean only one loss in their last 15+ games.  While there is nothing that helpful in the nonconference and their RPI doesnt lend itself to "lock" status, a win over the Blazers should be enough unless they completely fall on their faces at the CUSA tournament.  

Bubble:
UAB (23-6, 11-4 RPI 42):   UAB suffered a crushing home loss against Memphis, completing a sweep.  It could drop them to third in the CUSA pecking order - which is not a good thing.  Now they travel to red hot UTEP needing a win to stay near the cutline heading into the CUSA tournament.  They are 6-5 vs. the top-100, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play - but those are probably their last solid wins.
Memphis (21-8, 12-3 RPI 51):  The Tigers jump onto the bubble after sweeping UAB.  They are 6-5 vs. the top-100, but have three sub-100 losses.  Despite a challenging schedule, they lack any significant nonconference wins other than IUPUI and Oakland - neither of which will catch the commitee's attention.  They need at least a trip to the CUSA title game to really be in the mix.   

Treading Water:   

Missouri Valley

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Wichita State (22-8, 12-6 RPI 50): The Shockers are a fringe bubble team, sporting a 7-4 top-100 record offset by four sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville squad.  Its looking like they need the automatic bid at Arch Madness.

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks:  

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UNLV (21-7, 10-5 RPI 43): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in decent shape for an at-large.  They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU.  A sweep by Utah hurts.  A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win might be enough.
San Diego State (19-8, 10-5 RPI 33): Continue to color me skeptical about San Diego State's chances.  The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality.  They are 2-5 vs. the top-50.  Despite the strong computer numbers, the resume really doesn't hold up against most other teams in consideration.  More than anything, they can be helped by other teams collapsing down the stretch.  They need two upsets at the MWC tournament to feel good about an at-large.  One more bad loss between now and then, and they are done.  They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Locks: None

Near Locks:
California (20-9, 12-5 RPI 22); The Bears won the Pac-10 regular season title and can breathe a little easier.  Winning at Stanford would be nice, but despite 3 sub-100 losses and a mediocre 5-6 tp-100 record, winning a major conference and scheduling ambitiously out of conference should be enough to go dancing.

Bubble:
Arizona State (21-9, 11-6 RPI 54):  The Sun Devils are still in major trouble, sitting at 3-6 vs. the top-100.  Their best win is vs. San Diego State.  Beating UCLA at home is a must, as is a trip to the Pac-10 final if they want to have a chance at an at-large.  They could sneak up the pecking order if some teams around them stumble, but for right now their biggest positive is a good record in a pretty bad BCS league.
Washington (20-9, 10-7 RPI 55):  The Huskies won at Oregon and need the next one at Oregon State, but they also need a major run at the Pac-10 tourney to really have a shot.  They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 5-4 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses.

Treading Water: None

SEC

Locks:    

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Florida (20-10, 9-6 RPI 52):  The Gators really hurt their cause with the losses at Georgia and at home vs. Vanderbilt.  They are 3-7 vs. the top-50 and 7-9 against the top-100.  A bid could be wrapped up with a win at Kentucky, but the Wildcats still have the SEC East to win and should be ready to play.  Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not.  If they fall at Kentucky and in the first round of the SEC tournament, the Gators could miss the dance for the third straight season. 
Mississippi State (21-9, 9-6 RPI 59): A crushing loss at Auburn handed the Bulldogs their fifth loss outside of the top-100, which is an extremely high number for a bubble team.  A win over Tennessee is a necessity at this point, as is at least a couple wins in the SEC tourney.  Their OOC win over ODU is pretty nice, but other than a sweep of Ole Miss there isnt much else on the resume.
Mississippi (20-9, 8-7 RPI 56):  The Rebels got past LSU but now need to win at Arkansas.  They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins.  Getting swept by Mississippi State means the Rebels may need to win two or three SEC tournament games to have a chance - they still lack a high-quality conference win.

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
St. Mary’s (23-5, 11-3 RPI 45):  Nonconference wins at Utah State and vs. San Diego State are nice, but they did not knock of Gonzaga in two tries.  Even a trip to the WCC final will not mean rising above the cutline (last four in or out) for the Gaels.  They are 5-4 vs. the top-100 and are 1-4 against the top-50.

Treading Water: None

Others

Locks:

Near Locks:
Cornell (23-4, 11-1 RPI 46-Ivy):  The Big Red is one win away from locking up the Ivy and freeing up space for a bubble team to make the NCAA’s

Bubble: 
Old Dominion (23-8, 15-3 RPI 39-CAA):  If you go down the checklist of what an at-large should be, the Monarchs seem to have a complete profile.  They scheduled the 7^th toughest OOC slate in the country, have a marquee win (at Georgetown) avoided bad losses (the worst is at George Mason), and have piled up a 7-7 top-100 record.  Maybe a 1-4 top-50 record will hurt them, but they are 6-3 vs. 50-100.   Its looking like a trip to the CAA finals will be enough to send them dancing.  Short of that, it would cause some nervous moments in Norfolk.
Siena (24-6, 17-1 RPI 40-MAAC): Although they have great computer numbers, the Saints would be very lucky to get an at-large.  Missing on all four chances at top-50 opponents is especially harmful despite their MAAC dominance.  With their best win being vs. Northeastern, they better win the MAAC tournament to go dancing.
Utah State (22-6, 12-2 RPI 32-WAC):  A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 8-4 record vs. the top-100.  Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt, as does a weak nonconference schedule.  They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance.

Treading Water: William & Mary (19-9, 12-6 RPI 58-CAA); Kent State (21-8, 12-3 RPI 48-MAC)

ACC

Analysis: Clemson is locked up after beating Georgia Tech convincingly.

Locks:     

Near Locks:
Wake Forest (18-8, 8-6 RPI 28): Wake is also part of the one win and in club, despite their recent slide.  Wins over Georgia Tech, Maryland, Richmond and Xavier could put them in even if they can’t win either at Florida State or at home vs. Clemson.

Bubble:
Florida State (20-8, 8-6 RPI 42):  A tough home loss to Clemson prevented the Seminoles from locking up a bid, but a home win over Wake Forest should do the trick.  The OOC win over Marquette is nices, as is a sweep of Georgia Tech.  They close at Miami, which is manageable.
Virginia Tech (21-7, 8-6 RPI 52): An epic double overtime loss at home against Maryland has put the Hokies on the brink.  Now they must take care of NC State at home before going on the road to face fellow bubbler Georgia Tech.  A low RPI is based on a very weak nonconference slate, although they did beat Seton Hall without Malcolm Delaney.  Three 9-7 ACC teams have missed the tournament – UVA in 2000, Florida State in 2006 and Virginia Tech in 2008, with only Tech missing out after an ACC tournament win.  Their top-100 records are fluid based on the lower ACC squads moving above and below the 100 threshold, and it now stands at 5-5, and their top-50 record is 2-4.  It remains to be seen if an opening round ACC game helps or hurts their chances.  Sweeping this week sends them dancing, but a split ensures a stressful selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech (18-10, 7-8 RPI 33):  It is officially time to start worrying if you are the Jackets.  They are likely to finish no higher than 7th in the ACC, and certainly don't want to draw surging North Carolina in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke help the Jackets, but a 1-7 ACC road record hurts a bit.  Wins at Charlotte and vs. Siena are the highlights of an ok nonconference performance.  Getting to 8-8 in conference should be enough, although their inconsistency might prevent that.  Everyone has Virginia Tech penciled in as a win, but the Hokies will also be fighting for their NCAA tournament lives.  They are 4-7 vs. top-50 foes, clearly passing the SOS test.

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Locks:   

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Rhode Island (20-7, 8-6 RPI 35): A dreadful loss at St. Bonaventure has the Rams in trouble.  Their once stellar computer profile is fading badly.  They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play.  They are 6-6 vs. the top-100 and 2-4 vs. top-50 foes.  They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts.  They have to win their next two to get back on track.
Dayton (19-9, 8-6 RPI 41): The Flyers can really help themselves with a win at Richmond, but a 9-7 A-10 mark is a real possibility.  Should that happen, they would have to spring a couple upsets on their way to the A-10 title to be back on the good side of the bubble.  They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 5-8 vs. top-100 foes.
Charlotte (19-9, 9-5 RPI 62): A showdown at Rhode Island could decide their fate.  A resume with wins at Louisville, at Richmond and vs. Temple is somewhat offset by a 4-8 top-100 mark.  The loss to George Washington continued a slide that has seen them lose four of five.  If they can win at Rhode Island, they would also probably need to beat Richmond at home to really have a good chance at an at-large.

Treading Water: Saint Louis (18-9, 10-4 RPI 86)

Big East

Locks:       

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Louisville (19-11, 10-7 RPI 32): The Cardinals got drubbed at Marquette after a competitive first half, but still remain on the good side of the bubble for now.  They are 7-10 against the top-100 but that is against a SOS of 7, which will only go up with a game vs. Syracuse remaining.  The win at Syracuse is a nice feather in their cap and completing a sweep would surely send them dancing should they fall at Marquette.  It would take three straight losses to really make them worry about their chances, but they are staring at 10-8 in the Big East right now. 
Connecticut (17-12, 7-9 RPI 45): The Huskies have to hit the road for their final two, and probably need both to have a chance.  Getting swept by Louisville and Cincinnati have to hurt.  They have a SOS of 2 and three top-25 wins.  They are 3-6 overall against the top-50 but are an impressive 9-9 against the top-100.  Losses at Michigan and Providence are not helpful to the cause.
Notre Dame (19-10, 8-8 RPI 68):  Wins vs. Pitt and at Georgetown have rescued the Irish from the depths of the bubble.  Doing it without All-American forward Luke Harongody is remarkable.  A huge matchup with UConn could strengthen their case, and they end the season at Marquette.  Win both and they should be dancing, split and they will need to rely on top-25 wins over West Virginia, Georgetown and Pitt.  A bad home loss to Loyola Marymount is an eyesore.  They are 8-8 vs. the top-100.

Treading Water: Seton Hall (16-11, 7-9 RPI 64); South Florida (18-11, 8-9 RPI 66)    

Big Ten

Analysis: Minnesota is done after a horrendous 28-point loss at Michigan.  Maybe a good run at the Big Ten Tournament will get themm back in the mix, but for now they just dont stack up favorably.  Illinois fell at Ohio State and really have to be worried now.

Locks:       

Bubble:
Illinois (18-12, 10-7 RPI 73): The Illini are almost guaranteed to spend selection sunday in a virtual sauna after losing at Ohio State, which is their 12th loss of the season.  While 10-7 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are an ok 4-7 vs. the top-50 and 6-10 against the top-100.  Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not.  Can the good wins outweigh the bad losses?  We will see.  They better win either at home vs. Wisconsin or else they will make the committee justify an at-large to a team with an 80+ RPI and 13 losses.

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks:       

Near Locks:
Oklahoma State (20-8, 8-6 RPI 26): Oklahoma State got the biggest bubble win over the year by beating Kansas – only one more win will wrap up a bid, but four top-25 wins is probably enough if they hit the skids.  A home date with Nebraska should do the trick and send the Pokes dancing.

Bubble: None

Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Locks: None

Near Locks:
UTEP (23-5, 14-1 RPI 50): A big win at Marshall wrapped up the CUSA title and puts UTEP in good shape heading into a home date with fellow bubbler UAB.  If they win and complete a season sweep, they will be dancing since it will mean only one loss in their last 15+ games.  While there is nothing that helpful in the nonconference and their RPI doesnt lend itself to "lock" status, a win over the Blazers should be enough unless they completely fall on their faces at the CUSA tournament.  

Bubble:
UAB (23-5, 11-3 RPI 36): A big week for the Blazers awaits, with a home game against Memphis and a roadie at UTEP on tap.  Winning both would be greatly beneficial, and a split would mean an uncomfortable trip towards the cutline.  They are 6-4 vs. the top-100, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play.

Treading Water:  Memphis (21-8, 11-3 RPI 64)    

Missouri Valley

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Wichita State (22-8, 12-6 RPI 49): The Shockers are a fringe bubble team, sporting a 7-4 top-100 record offset by four sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville squad.  Its looking like they need the automatic bid at Arch Madness.

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks:  

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UNLV (21-7, 10-5 RPI 43): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in decent shape for an at-large.  They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU.  A sweep by Utah hurts.  A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win might be enough.
San Diego State (18-8, 9-5 RPI 39): The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality.  They need two upsets at the MWC tournament to have a chance at an at-large.  One more bad loss between now and then, and they are done.  They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Locks: None

Near Locks:
California (20-9, 12-5 RPI 21); The Bears won the Pac-10 regular season title and can breathe a little easier.  Winning at Stanford would be nice, but despite 3 sub-100 losses and a mediocre 5-6 tp-100 record, winning a major conference and scheduling ambitiously out of conference should be enough to go dancing.

Bubble:
Arizona State (20-9, 10-6 RPI 55):  The Sun Devils are in major trouble, sitting at 3-6 vs. the top-100.  Their best win is vs. San Diego State.  Beating USC and UCLA at home is a must, as is a trip to the Pac-10 final if they want to have a chance at an at-large.
Washington (19-9, 9-7 RPI 56):  Two road wins at the Oregon schools would keep the Huskies hanging around, but they also need a major run at the Pac-10 tourney to really have a shot.  They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 5-4 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses.

Treading Water: None

SEC

Locks:    

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Florida (20-10, 9-6 RPI 46):  The Gators really hurt their cause with the losses at Georgia and at home vs. Vanderbilt.  They are 3-7 vs. the top-50 and 7-9 against the top-100.  A bid could be wrapped up with a win at Kentucky, but the Wildcats still have the SEC East to win and should be ready to play.  Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not.  If they fall at Kentucky and in the first round of the SEC tournament, the Gators could miss the dance for the third straight season. 
Mississippi State (21-8, 9-5 RPI 54): A crucial win at South Carolina makes it three straight for the Bulldogs, but two must-win games remain – at Auburn and at home vs. Tennessee.  Wins in both would put them solidly on the good side of the bubble with an 11-5 SEC record.  Four sub-100 losses would harm them if they leave it up to chance, but their win over ODU is pretty nice.
Mississippi (19-9, 7-7 RPI 53):  The Rebels have two winnable games left and need both.  They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins.  Getting swept by Mississippi State means the Rebels may need to win two or three SEC tournament games to have a chance.

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
St. Mary’s (23-5, 11-3 RPI 44):  Nonconference wins at Utah State and vs. San Diego State are nice, but they did not knock of Gonzaga in two tries.  Even a trip to the WCC final will not mean rising above the cutline (last four in or out) for the Gaels.  They are 5-4 vs. the top-100 and are 1-4 against the top-50.

Treading Water: None

Others

Analysis: We have to take Oakland out of the mix - now that few bubble teams have won important games, it looks like they can't get an at-large.  Here's to hoping that they win the Summit tourney and go dancing, they deserve it.  Kent State can jump onto the board with a win at Akron.

Locks:

Near Locks:
Cornell (23-4, 11-1 RPI 47-Ivy):  The Big Red is one win away from locking up the Ivy and freeing up space for a bubble team to make the NCAA’s

Bubble: 
Old Dominion (23-8, 15-3 RPI 38-CAA):  If you go down the checklist of what an at-large should be, the Monarchs seem to have a complete profile.  They scheduled the 7^th toughest OOC slate in the country, have a marquee win (at Georgetown) avoided bad losses (the worst is at George Mason), and have piled up a 7-7 top-100 record.  Maybe a 1-4 top-50 record will hurt them, but they are 6-3 vs. 50-100.   Its looking like a trip to the CAA finals will be enough to send them dancing.  Short of that, it would cause some nervous moments in Norfolk.
Siena (24-6, 17-1 RPI 40-MAAC): Although they have great computer numbers, the Saints would be very lucky to get an at-large.  Missing on all four chances at top-50 opponents is especially harmful despite their MAAC dominance.  With their best win being vs. Northeastern, they better win the MAAC tournament to go dancing.
Utah State (22-6, 12-2 RPI 34-WAC):  A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 8-4 record vs. the top-100.  Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt, as does a weak nonconference schedule.  They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance.

Treading Water: William & Mary (19-9, 12-6 RPI 60-CAA); Kent State (21-8, 12-3 RPI 48-MAC)

ACC

Locks:    

Near Locks:
Florida State (20-8, 8-6 RPI 35):  A tough home loss to Clemson prevented the Seminoles from locking up a bid, but a home win over Wake Forest should do the trick.
Wake Forest (18-8, 8-6 RPI 28): Wake is also part of the one win and in club, despite their recent slide.  Wins over Georgia Tech, Maryland, Richmond and Xavier could put them in even if they can’t win either at Florida State or at home vs. Clemson.
Clemson (20-8, 8-6 RPI 38): The win at Florida State was enormous for the Tigers, who now can feel pretty good about their chances if they can get past Georgia Tech at home this week.

Bubble:
Virginia Tech (21-7, 8-6 RPI 52): An epic double overtime loss at home against Maryland has put the Hokies on the brink.  Now they must take care of NC State at home before going on the road to face fellow bubbler Georgia Tech.  A low RPI is based on a very weak nonconference slate, although they did beat Seton Hall without Malcolm Delaney.  Three 9-7 ACC teams have missed the tournament – UVA in 2000, Florida State in 2006 and Virginia Tech in 2008, with only Tech missing out after an ACC tournament win.  Their top-100 records are fluid based on the lower ACC squads moving above and below the 100 threshold, and it now stands at 5-5, and their top-50 record is 2-4.  It remains to be seen if an opening round ACC game helps or hurts their chances.  Sweeping this week sends them dancing, but a split ensures a stressful selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech (18-9, 7-7 RPI 32):  Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke help the Jackets, but a 1-6 ACC road record hurts a bit.  Wins at Charlotte and vs. Siena are the highlights of an ok nonconference performance.  Getting to 8-8 in conference should be enough, although their inconsistency might prevent that.  They are 4-6 vs. top-50 foes.

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Locks:   

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Rhode Island (20-7, 8-6 RPI 34): A dreadful loss at St. Bonaventure has the Rams in trouble.  Their once stellar computer profile is fading badly.  They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play.  They are 6-6 vs. the top-100 and 2-4 vs. top-50 foes.  They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts.  They have to win their next two to get back on track.
Dayton (19-9, 8-6 RPI 43): The Flyers can really help themselves with a win at Richmond, but a 9-7 A-10 mark is a real possibility.  Should that happen, they would have to spring a couple upsets on their way to the A-10 title to be back on the good side of the bubble.  They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 5-8 vs. top-100 foes.
Charlotte (19-9, 9-5 RPI 63): A showdown at Rhode Island could decide their fate.  A resume with wins at Louisville, at Richmond and vs. Temple is somewhat offset by a 4-8 top-100 mark.  The loss to George Washington continued a slide that has seen them lose four of five.  If they can win at Rhode Island, they would also probably need to beat Richmond at home to really have a good chance at an at-large.

Treading Water: Saint Louis (18-9, 10-4 RPI 84)

Big East

Locks:       


Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Louisville (19-10, 10-6 RPI 42): The Cardinals got a much needed win over UConn on the road, completing a season sweep.  They are 7-9 against the top-100 but that is against a SOS of 7, which will only go up with games at Marquette and vs. Syracuse remaining.  The win at Syracuse is a nice feather in their cap and completing a sweep would surely send them dancing should they fall at Marquette.  It would take three straight losses to really make them worry about their chances. 
Marquette (19-9, 10-6 RPI 54): The Cardiac Golden Eagles won their third straight road overtime game to further solidify their resume.  They have now won 8 of 9, getting hot at precisely the right time.  Home games vs. Louisville and Notre Dame remain, and a win in either will be enough, which would pair 11 Big East wins with a nice OOC win over Xavier.
Connecticut (17-12, 7-9 RPI 40): The Huskies have to hit the road for their final two, and probably need both to have a chance.  Getting swept by Louisville and Cincinnati have to hurt.  They have a SOS of 2 and three top-25 wins.  They are 3-6 overall against the top-50 but are an impressive 9-9 against the top-100.  Losses at Michigan and Providence are not helpful to the cause.
Notre Dame (19-10, 8-8 RPI 65):  Wins vs. Pitt and at Georgetown have rescued the Irish from the depths of the bubble.  Doing it without All-American forward Luke Harongody is remarkable.  A huge matchup with UConn could strengthen their case, and they end the season at Marquette.  Win both and they should be dancing, split and they will need to rely on top-25 wins over West Virginia, Georgetown and Pitt.  A bad home loss to Loyola Marymount is an eyesore.  They are 8-8 vs. the top-100.

Treading Water: Seton Hall (16-11, 7-9 RPI 52); South Florida (17-11, 7-9 RPI 66): Cincinnati (16-12, 7-9 RPI 59)     

Big Ten

Locks:       

Bubble:
Illinois (18-11, 10-6 RPI 74): A home loss to Minnesota has to worry the Illini.  While 10-6 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are a pretty good 4-6 vs. the top-50 and 6-9 against the top-100.  Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not.  They better win either at Ohio State or at home vs. Wisconsin or else they will make the committee justify an at-large to a team with an 80+ RPI.
Minnesota (17-11, 8-8 RPI 71):  A huge win at Illinois has the Gophers back in the discussion, but they probably need to win at Michigan and at home vs. Iowa to feel better about their chances.  Unfortunately, neither will help a 5-8 top-100 record and three sub-100 losses, including a loss at Indiana.  They have wins over Butler, Ohio State and Wisconsin.

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks:       

Near Locks:
Oklahoma State (20-8, 8-6 RPI 25): Oklahoma State got the biggest bubble win over the year by beating Kansas – only one more win will wrap up a bid, but four top-25 wins is probably enough if they hit the skids.  A home date with Nebraska should do the trick and send the Pokes dancing.

Bubble: None

Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Locks: None

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UAB (23-5, 11-3 RPI 37): A big week for the Blazers awaits, with a home game against Memphis and a roadie at UTEP on tap.  Winning both would be greatly beneficial, and a split would mean an uncomfortable trip towards the cutline.  They are 6-4 vs. the top-50, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play.
UTEP (22-5, 13-1 RPI 49): A trip to Marshall and a home showdown with UAB are ahead for the Miners, who have won 12 in a row.  If they win both games, they have to feel good about their chances.  Of the two, a sweep of UAB would be best.  They have nothing great in the nonconference, and are 1-1 vs. the top-50.  Despite the national ranking, their profile is mediocre should they need an at-large.

Treading Water: Marshall (18-7, 9-4 RPI 62); Memphis (21-8, 11-3 RPI 64)    

Missouri Valley

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Wichita State (22-8, 12-6 RPI 50): The Shockers are a fringe bubble team, sporting a 7-4 top-100 record offset by four sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville team.  Its looking like they need the automatic bid at Arch Madness.

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks:  

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UNLV (21-7, 10-5 RPI 44): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in decent shape for an at-large.  They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU.  A sweep by Utah hurts.  A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win might be enough.
San Diego State (18-8, 9-5 RPI 40): The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality.  They need two upsets at the MWC tournament to have a chance at an at-large.  One more bad loss between now and then, and they are done.  They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Locks: None

Near Locks:
California (20-9, 12-5 RPI 21); The Bears won the Pac-10 regular season title and can breathe a little easier.  Winning at Stanford would be nice, but despite 3 sub-100 losses and a mediocre 5-6 tp-100 record, winning a major conference and scheduling ambitiously out of conference should be enough to go dancing.

Bubble:
Arizona State (20-9, 10-6 RPI 54):  The Sun Devils are in major trouble, sitting at 3-6 vs. the top-100.  Their best win is vs. San Diego State.  Beating USC and UCLA at home is a must, as is a trip to the Pac-10 final if they want to have a chance at an at-large.
Washington (19-9, 9-7 RPI 56):  Two road wins at the Oregon schools would keep the Huskies hanging around, but they also need a major run at the Pac-10 tourney to really have a shot.  They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 5-4 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses.

Treading Water: None

SEC

Locks:    

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Florida (20-9, 9-5 RPI 46):  The Gators really hurt their cause with the loss at Georgia.  They are 3-6 vs. the top-50 and 7-8 against the top-100.  They are now in the position of having to win either at home vs. Vanderbilt or at Kentucky, and winning either should be enough to put them over the top.  Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not. 
Mississippi State (21-8, 9-5 RPI 57): A crucial win at South Carolina makes it three straight for the Bulldogs, but two must-win games remain – at Auburn and at home vs. Tennessee.  Wins in both would put them solidly on the good side of the bubble with an 11-5 SEC record.  Four sub-100 losses would harm them if they leave it up to chance, but their win over ODU is pretty nice.
Mississippi (19-9, 7-7 RPI 53):  The Rebels have two winnable games left and need both.  They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins.  Getting swept by Mississippi State means the Rebels may need to win two or three SEC tournament games to have a chance.

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
St. Mary’s (23-5, 11-3 RPI 45):  Nonconference wins at Utah State and vs. San Diego State are nice, but they did not knock of Gonzaga in two tries.  Even a trip to the WCC final will not mean rising above the cutline (last four in or out) for the Gaels.  They are 5-4 vs. the top-100 and are 1-4 against the top-50.

Treading Water: None

Others

Locks:

Near Locks:
Cornell (23-4, 11-1 RPI 49-Ivy):  The Big Red is one win away from locking up the Ivy and freeing up space for a bubble team to make the NCAA’s

Bubble: 
Old Dominion (23-8, 15-3 RPI 38-CAA):  If you go down the checklist of what an at-large should be, the Monarchs seem to have a complete profile.  They scheduled the 7^th toughest OOC slate in the country, have a marquee win (at Georgetown) avoided bad losses (the worst is at George Mason), and have piled up a 7-7 top-100 record.  Maybe a 1-4 top-50 record will hurt them, but they are 6-3 vs. 50-100.   Its looking like a trip to the CAA finals will be enough to send them dancing.  Short of that, it would cause some nervous moments in Norfolk.
Siena (23-6, 16-1 RPI 30-MAAC): Although they have great computer numbers, the Saints would be very lucky to get an at-large.  Missing on all four chances at top-50 opponents is especially harmful despite their MAAC dominance.  With their best win being vs. Northeastern, they better win the MAAC tournament to go dancing.
Utah State (22-6, 12-2 RPI 33-WAC):  A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 8-4 record vs. the top-100.  Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt, as does a weak nonconference schedule.  They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance.

Treading Water: William & Mary (19-9, 12-6 RPI 60-CAA); Kent State (21-8, 12-3 RPI 48-MAC); Oakland (21-8, 17-1 RPI 61-Summit)

TourneyBubble.com will be on-site liveblogging the CAA Tournament starting with Saturday's quarterfinals.  We will be focusing on ODU and William and Mary, but will follow all the action as it unfolds.  Feel free to comment and chat along as we spew our nonsense live.

ACC

Analysis: Florida State moves closer to a bid with a blowout win at UNC.  A win against either Wake Forest or Clemson at home should do the trick.  They end the season at Miami.  Maryland is locked up after a great comeback win over Clemson – no ACC team has gone 10-6 and not gotten a bid, and there is no way it happens this year.  It helps to have the name “Maryland” attached to your resume.  They can lose out and they will get in.  Virginia Tech looked bad at Boston College and fall back onto the bubble, albeit still on the good side.  A gigantic home game against Maryland may decide their fate – they need two of the last three to avoid having a lot of work to do at the ACC Tournament.  At 7-6 and with trips to Wake Forest and Florida State sandwiched around a home date with desperate Georgia Tech, its time for Clemson to circle the wagons.

Locks:     

Near Locks: Florida State (20-7, 8-5 RPI 34)

Bubble: Virginia Tech (21-6, 8-5 RPI 48); Georgia Tech (17-9, 6-7 RPI 33); Clemson (19-8, 7-6 RPI 36)

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Analysis:  Dayton’s loss leaves them in a very precarious position – they are now staring at 9-7 in the A-10.  Normally that would send them to the NIT, but they have a couple good nonconference wins (vs. ODU and Georgia Tech) and a nice 25-point blowout of Xavier. Rhode Island must take advantage of its remaining easy schedule and hope other teams above them stumble.  Charlotte’s 4-8 vs. the top-100 but can clean up the profile with wins at Rhode Island and at home against Richmond, which is easier said than done.  Xavier is locked up, as it is hard to see them going worse than 13-3 in conference.  St. Louis needs to run the table to have a good chance, since it would include wins over Dayton and Temple.  The Fighting Majeruses can’t expect a sniff from the selection committee without that after dropping a home game against Xavier.

Locks:   

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Rhode Island (20-6, 8-5 RPI 28); Dayton (18-9, 7-6 RPI 43); Charlotte (18-8, 8-4 RPI 55);

Treading Water: Saint Louis (17-9, 9-4 RPI 90)

Big East

Analysis: Madness reigns in the middle of the Big East.  Everyone on the list could stand to win out, but tough schedules may prevent that.  Again, lets see who finishes .500 or better and then sort this out.  Notre Dame is back in the mix after beating Pitt, but have games at Georgetown, vs. UConn and at Marquette coming up.  Marquette gets bubble shots at Seton Hall, and then home vs. Louisville and Notre Dame.  Two of those three might be enough, since it would significantly boost their 6-7 top-100 record.  For UConn, Cincinnati and Seton Hall it’s all about winning.

Locks:       


Near Locks: None

Bubble: Louisville (18-10, 9-6 RPI 42); Marquette (18-9, 9-6 RPI 54); Cincinnati (16-11, 7-8 RPI 59); Connecticut (17-11, 7-8 RPI 40); Seton Hall (16-10, 7-8 RPI 52)   

Treading Water: None

Big Ten

Analysis:  A loss to Purdue puts Minnesota on the brink.  Without a win at Illinois this weekend, it’s hard to see where they can improve their profile.  The Illini need only to beat Minnesota and Wisconsin at home to feel good about their chances.  They are only 6-8 vs. the top-100.  Given the weakness of other teams, its hard to see them getting left out if they get to 12-6.

Locks:      

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Illinois (18-10, 10-5 RPI 64)

Treading Water: Minnesota (16-11, 7-8 RPI 81); Northwestern (18-10, 7-9 RPI 92)

Big 12

Analysis:  It is hard to overstate how badly Oklahoma State needs to beat Kansas or win at Texas A & M.  They stand at 4-7 against the top-100, and even with three top-25 wins, 4-9 against that group will not look very good to the committee.  Missouri moves to Lock Land because of their win and the failings of other Bubblers. 

Locks:      

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Oklahoma State (19-8, 7-6 RPI 31)

Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Analysis: Memphis lost badly at Houston and is pretty much sunk.  The Tigers join Marshall on the outskirts of the bubble, saved only by the fact that they can knock off UTEP (Marshall) and UAB (Memphis) and have a bunch of teams collapse them elsewhere on the bubble.

Locks: None

Near Locks: None

Bubble: UAB (22-5, 10-3 RPI 32); UTEP (21-5, 12-1 RPI 46)

Treading Water: Marshall (18-7, 9-4 RPI 61); Memphis (20-8, 10-3 RPI 69)    

Missouri Valley

Analysis: UNI is still ok, even after losing to a terrible Evansville team.  Wichita State is nearly cooked after another sub-100 loss at Bradley, although they have an outside shot at getting back on the bubble. They are 7-4 against the top-100 but now have four sub-100 losses with just an OK win over Texas Tech out of conference.

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Wichita State (21-8, 11-6 RPI 53)

Treading Water: Illinois State (21-8, 11-6 RPI 79)

Mountain West

Analysis: UNLV got the first leg of their cakewalk end of the MWC season by crushing TCU.  San Diego State fell at BYU and now has to be sweating – where can they improve their profile now?  They need a win over BYU or New Mexico, but it must come in the MWC tournament now. 4-6 vs. the top-100, two sub-100 losses and no good out of conference wins do not look very good at this moment. 

Locks:    

Near Locks: None

Bubble: UNLV (20-7, 9-5 RPI 44); San Diego State (18-8, 9-5 RPI 37)

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Analysis: Nothing to see here, folks - let's move on. 

Locks: None

Near Locks: None

Bubble: California (19-9, 11-5 RPI 24); Arizona State (20-8, 10-5 RPI 56); Washington (18-9, 8-7 RPI 60)

Treading Water: None

SEC

Analysis: I’m not as high on Mississippi State as most analysts.  They have four sub-100 losses, which is a very high number compared to their bubble brethren.  They did sweep Ole Miss, but lost to Florida.  A good win over ODU out of conference is offset by a home loss to Rider.  In my opinion, they must survive road trips to South Carolina and Auburn, as well as a home game with Tennessee to really have a chance at an at-large.  I think Florida is in with two wins in their last three, as only a bad home loss to South Alabama is an eyesore on their resume.

Locks:    

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Florida (20-8, 9-4 RPI 45); Mississippi State (20-8, 8-5 RPI 58); Mississippi (18-9, 6-7 RPI 60)

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Analysis:  St. Mary’s just needs to take care of business until the WCC final – a lot can happen elsewhere on the bubble to make them look better.  Portland is cooked after losing at Loyola Marymount.

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble: St. Mary’s (22-5, 10-3 RPI 47)

Treading Water: None

Others

Analysis:  Sorry, Tribe fans.  Losing at home to Towson is a fatal blow to the College’s chances at an at-large.  Their excellent nonconference work is officially undone.  Northeastern is done after a home loss to Hofstra.  If Cornell can polish off Princeton and Penn this weekend at home, they would wrap up the Ivy’s auto bid and make room on the bubble – given this likelihood, Siena remains in consideration even though they need a ton of help.  Old Dominion has to beat VCU to clinch the CAA title and get another crucial top-100 win.  They are 5-7 in that department right now.  Even if they keep winning, they will still be right on the cutline come Selection Sunday.  Utah State is 8-4 vs. the top-100 but have two sub-100 losses.  The nonconference win over BYU is enough to keep them in serious consideration, but they should focus on winning out until the WAC final to feel secure.  Right now, they are in strong shape.

Goodbye to Murray State and Louisiana Tech.

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Cornell (21-4, 9-1 RPI 49-Ivy); Old Dominion (22-8, 14-3 RPI 41-CAA); Siena (22-6, 15-1 RPI 38-MAAC); Utah State (22-6, 12-2 RPI 35-WAC)

Treading Water: William & Mary (18-9, 11-6 RPI 57-CAA); VCU (20-7, 11-6 RPI 63-CAA); Kent State (20-8, 11-3 RPI 50-MAC); Oakland (20-8, 16-1 RPI 68-Summit)

Remember when I said not to trust Georgetown?  After watching the first half of their game at Louisville last night, I was completely unimpressed and ready to sit down and type a long diatribe about how they were wildly overrated.  I did the dishes, walked the dogs and came back to find them easily polishing off the Cardinals with a 13-point lead.  They are absolutely maddening, and I don't even care about them.  Meanwhile, the loss hurts Louisville in that it could have essentially wrapped up an at-large.  Now they will have to work hard in the last three games to reclaim their spot on right side of the bubble.

There are two unique kinds of teams that I would like to talk about - Crappy Good Teams and Good Crappy Teams.  Crappy Good Teams have loads of talent, enough to be amongst the top-10 ranked teams in the country, but somehow find ways to lose focus and drop games they have no business dropping.  They make strange mistakes, their coaches make strange coaching decisions, and they always leave you thinking that they could have done more - thus, they are a Crappy Good Team.  The best examples this year are Georgetown (for obvious reasons) UConn (even though Coach Calhoun's health could be a factor for their inconsistency) Tennessee, Texas, and Michigan State.  These are the teams that are in serious danger of not reaching the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament - although they probably don't know that yet.

That brings us to the Good Crappy Team - teams that lack any sort of aesthetic excellence in their playing styles, and ones who always seem to be missing a key ingredient to becoming great.  They are the types of teams who grind out wins and leave the watcher thinking "how did they just do that?"  Some Good Crappy Teams include Virginia Tech (with no player taller than 6'8 and piss-poor outside shooting, they still get the job done), BYU, Butler, Old Dominion and Illinois.  While this group won't get the benefit of the doubt with the selection committee in selection or seeding, they are the type of teams who can pull off second-round shockers over the aforementioned Crappy Good Teams.