The Bubble Watch will come in parts. More conferences to come- stay tuned.
ACC__________________________________________________________
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest
Near Locks
Miami (5-2)
Case For: Win at Kentucky, 35 point Win over San Diego
Case Against: Not much of one, the Ohio State and UConn losses are understandable
Analysis: Lack of a marquee win puts Miami in Near Lock territory. They should be fine, but can’t afford many slipups in the ACC or the rest of the nonconference schedule.
Florida State (8-1)
Case For: Overall record; Win at Florida, Wins vs. Cincinnati, vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Northwestern
Analysis: After the huge win at Florida, the Seminoles are in great shape. The slipup at Northwestern may not be too damaging, especially with their resume thus far. With this profile, it’s looking like 8-8 in the ACC can get them in.
Bubble
Maryland (6-2)
Case For: Wins over #6 Michigan State and Michigan
Case Against: Lopsided losses vs. Gonzaga and vs. Georgetown; Vermont W in OT
Analysis: An interesting case, especially if the Michigan State and Michigan wins hold up as “marquee”. Blowing out annual nemesis GW helped a lot. But what does the committee look into most – the wins or lopsided nature of the losses? The Terps look pretty solid now.
Boston College (6-2)
Case For: Wins over UAB, Iowa and St. John’s
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis
Analysis: Boston College is the definition of a bubble team now. The UAB win looks very good, but it remains to be seen how the Iowa and St. John’s wins look in a month. The loss to Purdue makes sense, and the loss at St. Louis isn’t terrible.
Treading Water
Virginia Tech (5-3); Georgia Tech (5-1); NC State (4-1)
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Locks
Xavier, Dayton
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Rhode Island (6-3)
Case For: Wins vs. VCU and at Penn State
Case Against: Overall record
Analysis: If close counted, the Rams would be in a great position. The close calls at Duke and at Providence probably have them on the outside looking in. A win at Oklahoma State would help immensely, as would a sweep of their remaining MAC opponents.
Treading Water
Richmond (5-3)
Big Twelve__________________________________________________________
Locks
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
Near Locks
Baylor (7-1)
Case For: Wins at Arizona State and at Washington State
Case Against: Loss at Wake Forest doesn’t hurt at all
Analysis: The Bears would be in if the tournament were tomorrow. They have a couple good wins and an easy slate coming up. The only reason they aren’t locks is an iffy possible RPI, as the rest of the nonconference schedule is a breeze.
Bubble
Texas Tech (7-1)
Case For: Win at Mississippi State
Case Against: Weak Schedule
Analysis: The win over Miss. State is good, and the loss to Pittsburgh was expected. We will take the Red Raiders more seriously if they survive at Lamar and at UTEP.
Missouri (7-1)
Case For: Overall record: Wins vs. USC and vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Xavier is excusable
Analysis: Mizzou is in decent shape, given that they have haveonly lost to a superior team, and they have a couple decent wins. Wins at Georgia and vs. Illinois would get them into near-lock status.
Texas A&M (6-1)
Case For: Win vs. Arizona
Case Against: Loss at Tulsa
Analysis: There isn’t much to work with yet, but the Aggies play both Alabama and LSU in the coming weeks. They need a better resume, as their wins aren’t all that impressive.
Treading Water
Iowa State (6-1); Nebraska (6-1); Oklahoma State (4-3); Kansas State (5-2)
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Locks
Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue
Near Locks
Illinois (7-1)
Case For: Overall record, Wins at Vanderbilt, at Kent State and blowout win vs. Georgia
Case Against: Loss against Clemson isn’t very bad
Analysis: The Illini look to be in good shape so far. They should cruise until the big game at Missouri, which could vault them into lock status.
Wisconsin (6-2)
Case For: Wins at Virginia Tech and at San Diego
Case Against: Losses at UConn and at Marquette are understandable
Analysis: A murderous schedule has Wisconsin on the bubble, but they look safe for now, as they have done nothing to hurt themselves. Wisconsin should be 9-2 headed into a huge game vs. Texas, where a win puts them in as a lock.
Bubble
Michigan State (5-2)
Case For: Reputation and preseason ranking
Case Against: Blown out by the two best teams they’ve played.
Analysis: The losses to North Carolina and Maryland were embarrassing. Once Michigan State and the country realize this is simply a Top-30 – and not a Top-10- team, the Spartans should be OK. Outside of beating Oklahoma State, there isn’t much to the profile right now, although they will probably bounce back. Compared to other Big Ten teams, they simply don’t stand out.
Minnesota (8-0)
Case For: They are undefeated
Case Against: Weak schedule
Analysis: Being undefeated looks great, but Minnesota’s best win is at home over ACC doormat Virginia. A win over Louisville would be great for them, as there aren’t any remaining nonconference games that can help.
Northwestern (6-1)
Case For: Wins vs. Florida State and blowout win vs. DePaul
Case Against: Loss at Butler, not harmful yet
Analysis: Northwestern has put together a respectable nonconference resume, capped by the win over Florida State. A win at Stanford would give the Wildcats a huge boost, and put them in a good position to challenge for their first-ever NCAA bid.
Treading Water
Penn State (6-2); Iowa (7-2)
