Here is some more Bubble Watch. Next time it will all come at once. Also, scratch Virginia Tech from the Treading Water category - their close losses have sunk them until further notice...
Big East_________________________________________________
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Seton Hall (6-1)
Case For: Wins vs. USC and vs. Virginia Tech
Case Against: Can they keep it up?
Analysis: Seton Hall is in decent position, if you take away the relatively unfair “9th or 10th Best Team in the Big East” label from them. They have two good enough nonconference wins, an understandable loss to Memphis, and are looking at 11-1 headed into conference play. 9-9 in the Big East, with a couple more notable wins, will do the trick.
West Virginia (6-2)
Case For: Win vs. Iowa, at Mississippi
Case Against: How did they lose to Kentucky?
Analysis: The Mountaineers aren’t in bad shape, but a win at Ohio State would help immensely after losing a close one to Davidson. If they drop that one, they will have a little bit of work to do in league play (9 or 10 Big East wins with two top-25 scalps).
Cincinnati (6-1)
Case For: Win vs. UAB
Case Against: Loss at Florida State is the only blemish
Analysis: The Bearcats have a few opportunities to move up the Big East pecking order – games vs. in-state rival Xavier, vs. Mississippi State and at Memphis. Right now it is only a middling profile.
St. John’s (7-1)
Case For: Overall record; Win over mighty NJIT – upcoming game against South Harmon Institute of Technology
Case Against: One of the items above is false, but not very far off - they haven’t beaten anybody good.
Analysis: St John’s has to win the game vs. Miami to be taken seriously. Right now they are just padding their record.
Treading Water
Providence (6-3)
Pac-10_________________________________________________
Locks
Arizona State
Near Locks
UCLA (5-2)
Case For: They are supposed to be good; Preseason ranking
Case Against: Weak profile thus far
Analysis: The Bruins will probably be in the NCAA Tournament, and probably with a high seed. At this moment, they have yet to beat anyone decent outside of Southern Illinois. UCLA benefits from being highly ranked in the preseason, as the only two good teams they have played have beaten them. Six straight home nonconference games will help pad their record and give them a lofty, although undeserved, national ranking.
Bubble
California (6-2)
Case For: Convincing win at UNLV
Case Against: Two losses, slaughtered at Missouri by 27.
Analysis: The Bears need wins against Utah and Nevada to solidify their profile. They played a respectable nonconference schedule, which should help their computer numbers. If they slip between now and the end of December, they will need a strong league showing.
Washington State (6-2)
Case For: Win over Mississippi State, big upcoming games
Case Against: No true road games so far
Analysis: Washington State has a “meh?” profile, losing to good Baylor and Pittsburgh teams and beating nobody. A marquee win over Gonzaga would really help. The schedule opens up with a real chance at a 4-0 start in the Pac-10, which could help.
Stanford (4-0)
Case For: Overall record
Case Against: They probably won’t stay here long.
Analysis: Home dates against Northwestern and Texas Tech allow the Cardinal to stay in consideration, as a win in those tow contests make them true bubble contenders. They haven’t played a very tough schedule so far.
Treading Water
Arizona (5-2); USC (5-3); Washington (5-3)
West Coast_________________________________________________
Locks
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (5-1)
Case For: Wins over Fresno State, vs. Providence; Tough nonconference schedule
Case Against: Could be handed a tough loss, loss at UTEP isn’t bad
Analysis: The Gaels are in decent shape, but would be well served to avoid any “bad” losses along the way. Beating Oregon and Southern Illinois in tough road games will get them to Lock status. Even if they stumble in the next month, they should excel in WCC play and possibly knock off Gonzaga for a marquee win.
Treading Water
Portland (5-2)
