The college basketball landscape of 08-09 is quite an interesting place. The usual suspects are at the top and outside of Davidson, I don't see too many mid-majors poised for a big run. Gonzaga is really really good, but they aren't a mid-major anymore. So who does that leave us to look at for this year's Cinderella? Here is a closer look at some of the better teams of the mid-major world, teams I think could win a game in the tourney. Further down is a preview of the big games this weekend, which in my opinion, should be the best weekend of games all year long.
St. Mary's looks to be a very good team. Pat Mills and Omar Samham are looking to be a solid combination. They will give Gonzaga a run for their money in the West Coast Conference, but Gonzaga is too deep and too talented for them to overcome. I think St. Mary's, based on their 7-1 start, is at-large worthy right now. Winning at Oregon and knocking off Gonzaga at least once would help assure them of this.
Dayton is also a team that deserves bubble watch status. The A-10 is one of the best leagues in college basketball this year and Dayton is one of the best teams. Everyone will expect Xavier to win the A-10, but watch out for Dayton as a darkhorse to win the league. They have a very balanced lineup that has quite a few guys who can lead them in scoring. When you can bring guys off the bench and have them drop 20+ on teams like Marquette, you can hang with pretty much anyone. Chris Wright is a player and although he is still only a sophmore, he can be the leader this team needs in the rugged A-10.
Butler is solid yet again this year and heading back to the NCAA tourney should be a given for this team. They lost alot with Graves and Green finally leaving school, but they still have a vert solid team, filled with shooters like Gordon Hayword, Shelvin Mack and Zach Hahn. Add in the toughness of Matt Howard, the coaching of Brad Stevens, and the homecourt advantage of Hinkle Fieldhouse and you are looking at a very tough Butler team which should make its return to the NCAA tourney again this year, whether it wins its league or not. The Horizon is no push-over this year, as Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Illinois-Chicago are all very good teams that could win a game in the NCAA tourney were they to get in. So far those 3 teams have combined to beat Northern Iowa, Vandy by 19 on the road, Georgia Tech on the road, UMASS by 17 and at Syracuse. All very impressive wins. The Horizon could definetly be a multi-bid conference this year.
Finally, I just wanted to mention BYU. They might not be a mid-major, but they are also not a BCS team which means its ok to root for them, at least in my book. Brigham Young is kicking ass and taking names this year. They are 10-0 and absolutely destroying teams. They haven't lost at home in 47 games and I am not sure they will lose at home again this year. Only one team has come within double digits this year, when an otherwise undefeated Utah State team managed to stay within 5 of them on a neutral court. Granted, they haven't played the best competition, but they are winning games by 30 and 40 points. We will see if they are a legit Sweet 16, Elite 8 calibur team when they play at Arizona State on Dec. 20. That game should be an absolute war. Lee Cummard and Jonathan Tavernari are big time players and have the swagger and confidence to play with anyone in college basketball. Tavernari is a 6-6 do it all guard/forward who shoots well, passes well and rebounds really well for a wing. Cummard is also a fantastic 6-7 guard who can attack the basket and score in bunches. He's shooting 48% from the 3 point line and has already scored more than 30 twice this season. Not alot of teams have tall, athletic scoring guards like Tavernari and Cummard, they are tough matchups for just about anyone in college b-ball. BYU is one of the most impressive teams I've watched so far in this, albeit early, college basketball season.
Key Games on the Week:
Wed. December 17 -
Akron at VCU - VCU needs to win this game bad, if they lose at home, their big weekend showdown against Oklahoma won't mean much.
St. Mary's at Oregon - big chance for St. Mary's to score a road upset against a solid Oregon team. They need this win against a BCS team.
East Carolina at NC State - East Carolina has been impressive in the early season. They are 8-1 and have beaten a very solid VCU team. They have a chance to prove they are legit by winning on the road at NC State.
Jacksonville St. at UAB - How about the Gamecocks!! A 6-1 start is very impressive and their only loss was at Southern Cal, but now things get real. UAB HAS to win this game at home to stay in the at-large picture. Should be a very good game.
Thurs, Dec. 18 -
Evansville at UNC - Evansville is a very good basketball team. They are 7-1, the only loss at Butler and just blew out Western Kentucky by 32. They could score some serious points for themselves and the MVC were they to pull off this upset on national tv, however, don't count on it. Still will be a good game to watch.
Friday, Dec. 19 -
Wake Forest at Richmond - Wake Forest is very good, they are undefeated and rolling right now. However, Richmond is a solid A-10 team and could give the Deacons some trouble at home. This is a game to keep an eye on and a chance for a good mid-major upset. Kudos to Wake for playing them on the road.
Sat. Dec. 20 -
UConn vs. Gonzaga - What an absolute war this will be. This will be the best weekend of college basketball so far this year, maybe the best all year long and this is the marquee game. Cannot wait for this one, what a battle this will be!
VCU at Oklahoma - Another great contest. Oklahoma should dominate on paper, but ex-VCU coach Jeff Capel recruited most of VCU's upperclass and you know Eric Maynor has been looking forward to this game all year. Should be a great game to watch.
Michigan State at Texas - Look for Texas to blowout Mich St, they just aren't that good and Texas is the real deal. Texas by 15 to 20.
Xaiver at Duke - Another battle on paper, but I still am not an Xaiver believer. I look for Duke to end up winning this one by double digits, lets say 12 or so.
Louisville at Minnesota - Another chance for Tubby to prove his team is for real. This would convince the skeptics.
Syracuse at Memphis - Should be a very solid game of two very overrated teams. #11 and #21 my sweet arse.
BYU at Arizona State - While Gonzaga against UConn is the marquee matchup of the day, this might end up being the best game of the day. Look for this game to come down to the last posession. I like BYU's chances on the road.
Davidson at Purdue - Wow, the great games just keep on coming. This should be no exception. It will take a hell of an effort for Davidson to win in Indiana, but never doubt Steph Curry.
Northwestern at Stanford - A good early season contest between two teams no one expected much from this year but who are 7-1 and 5-0 respectively. Expect a good game.
Temple at Kansas - Temple needs to build on its blowout upset of Tenn. Beating Kansas is going to be very tough to do, but it is Christmas time, so expect a miracle.
Iowa at Drake- Again, kudos to Iowa for playing a mid-major on the road. A couple solid, scrappy teams going at it and it should be a great battle.
St. Mary's at Southern Illinois - Southern Illinois is down this year, but they will be playing at home and their toughness and tenacity could be enough for them to pull the upset over a St. Mary's team that will be desperate for a solid road win against an MVC team.
Illinois Chicago at Illinois State - The Flames and the Redbirds should be in an absolute war. Osirus Eldridge should lead him team to victory at home, but Illinois-Chicago could announce their presence to the Horizon and the rest of the country by beating Ill. St. on the road. Should be a great mid-major game.
What an absolutely fantastic slate of games. College basketball fan heaven. Out of all those games, if I could only choose 3 to watch, I would watch Gonzaga-UConn, Davidson-Purdue and BYU-Az. State. Feel free to comment on which games you would choose and why.
Sun, Dec. 21
Pittsburgh at Florida State - Another solid game. Florida State will be tough at home and Pitt is a little overrated. Look for FSU to pull the upset at home.
Clemson at Miami - Clemson could use the road win, but Miami needs the home win more. Should be another great game, the first of many in the ACC this year.
