Here is our weekly Bubble Tracker, updated through Wednesday’s action. The Big East is showing well (big surprise there), and things are a mess in the Big Ten, Pac-10 and SEC. After a very slow start, some Mid Majors have entered into the at-large conversation. Keep in mind this is a snapshot of the situation as if the tournament was being selected today. Teams will move in and out of certain statuses throughout the year. A Lock today could be on the bubble in a couple weeks, and vice versa.
ACC__________________________________________________________
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Near Locks
Miami (7-2)
Case For: Win at Kentucky, 35 point Win over San Diego
Case Against: Not much of one, the Ohio State and UConn losses are understandable
Analysis: Lack of a marquee win puts Miami in Near Lock territory. They should be fine, but can’t afford many slipups in the ACC or the rest of the nonconference schedule. Conference play starts Sunday night vs. Clemson.
Florida State (9-1)
Case For: Overall record; Win at Florida, Wins vs. Cincinnati, vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Northwestern
Analysis: The Seminoles remain in great shape. The slipup at Northwestern may not be too damaging, especially with their resume thus far. With this profile, it’s looking like 8-8 in the ACC gets them in.
Bubble
Maryland (7-2)
Case For: Wins over Michigan State and Michigan
Case Against: Lopsided losses vs. Gonzaga and vs. Georgetown; Vermont W in OT
Analysis: An interesting case, especially if the Michigan State and Michigan wins hold up as “marquee”. What does the committee look into most – the wins or lopsided nature of the losses? The Terps look pretty solid now.
Boston College (8-2)
Case For: Wins over UAB, Iowa and St. John’s
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis
Analysis: Boston College is the definition of a bubble team now. The UAB win looks very good, but it remains to be seen how the Iowa and St. John’s wins look in a month. The loss to Purdue makes sense, and the loss at St. Louis isn’t terrible. Big game vs. Providence on Saturday could be a Bubble Eliminator.
Treading Water
NC State (5-1); Virginia Tech (6-4)
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Locks
Xavier, Dayton
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Rhode Island (8-3)
Case For: Wins vs. VCU and at Penn State
Case Against: Three not-bad losses, but losses nonetheless
Analysis: If close counted, the Rams would be in a great position. The close calls at Duke and at Providence probably have them on the outside looking in. A win at Oklahoma State would help immensely, as would a sweep of their remaining MAC opponents.
Temple (5-3)
Case For: Resounding win vs. Tennessee
Case Against: Losses at Buffalo and vs. Miami (OH)
Analysis: The Owls vault into the discussion with a surprising blowout of Tennessee. The two losses above are pretty damaging, probably enough to cancel out their last two good wins. They need a win against Villanova to merit more serious consideration.
Treading Water
None
Big East_________________________________________________
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova
Near Locks
Syracuse (9-1)
Case For: Wins over Kansas and Florida
Case Against: Loss at home to Cleveland State
Analysis: No road games+marquee wins looking worse by the day+shocking loss to a Horizon League team= not a lock any more. The Orange are probably fine, but the loss to a pretty good Cleveland State team brings up a lot of questions that people were not asking a week ago. They have lived on the edge all season and finally got burnt.
Notre Dame (7-2)
Case For: Win vs. Texas
Case Against: Two understandable losses
Analysis: Wait – Notre Dame may be overrated? Stop the presses. This is a good, but not great, team that will be in the NCAA Tournament. The win over Texas is good enough for now, but expect a couple missteps in the Big East.
Bubble
Seton Hall (8-1)
Case For: Wins vs. USC and vs. Virginia Tech
Case Against: Can they keep it up?
Analysis: Seton Hall is in decent position, if you take away the relatively unfair “9th or 10th Best Team in the Big East” label from them. They have two good enough nonconference wins, an understandable loss to Memphis, and are looking at 11-1 headed into conference play. 9-9 in the Big East, with a couple more notable wins, will do the trick. The Pirates have to continue to take care of business.
West Virginia (7-2)
Case For: Win vs. Iowa, at Mississippi
Case Against: How did they lose to Kentucky?
Analysis: The Mountaineers survived at Duquesne to remain in the discussion. They are still searching for a standout win.
Cincinnati (6-2)
Case For: Win vs. UAB
Case Against: Loss at Florida State, blown out at home by Xavier
Analysis: The Bearcats got handled wire to wire against Xavier and now are in some trouble. They can bounce back with games coming up vs. Mississippi State and at Memphis. Right now it is not a profile that stands out.
St. John’s (8-1)
Case For: Overall record; Win over mighty NJIT – upcoming game against South Harmon Institute of Technology
Case Against: One of the items above is false, but not very far off - they haven’t beaten anybody good.
Analysis: St John’s has to win the game vs. Miami to be taken seriously. Right now they are just padding their record.
Treading Water
Providence (6-3)
Big Twelve__________________________________________________________
Locks
Oklahoma, Texas
Near Locks
Baylor (8-1)
Case For: Wins at Arizona State and at Washington State
Case Against: Loss at Wake Forest doesn’t hurt at all
Analysis: The Bears would be in if the tournament were tomorrow. They have a couple good wins and an easy slate coming up. The only reason they aren’t locks is an iffy possible RPI, as the rest of the nonconference schedule is a breeze.
Bubble
Kansas (7-2)
Case For: Win over Washington
Case Against: They lost to UMass. Yes, UMass.
Analysis: Why were they ranked again? A closer look at the profile reveals that Kansas is not in good shape. A horrible loss at UMass now stands out above any positives (and there aren’t many) in the resume. They need to beat Temple and Arizona to right the ship.
Missouri (8-1)
Case For: Overall record: Wins vs. USC and vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Xavier is excusable
Analysis: Mizzou is in decent shape, given that they have only lost to a superior team, and they have a couple decent wins. Wins at Georgia and vs. Illinois would get them into near-lock status.
Texas A&M (8-1)
Case For: Win vs. Arizona, Win at Alabama
Case Against: Loss at Tulsa
Analysis: The Aggies got a huge OT win at Alabama and look to be in good shape. Beating LSU and running the nonconference table would help solidify their position even further.
Treading Water
Texas Tech (7-2); Nebraska (6-2); Oklahoma State (6-3); Kansas State (7-3)
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Locks
Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue
Near Locks
Michigan State (6-2)
Case For: Reputation and preseason ranking
Case Against: Blown out by the two best teams they’ve played.
Analysis: Maybe we were too harsh on Michigan State. The losses to North Carolina and Maryland were embarrassing. Once Michigan State and the country realize this is simply a Top-30 – and not a Top-10- team, the Spartans should be OK. Outside of beating Oklahoma State, there isn’t much to the profile right now, although they will probably bounce back.
Illinois (9-1)
Case For: Overall record, Wins at Vanderbilt, at Kent State and blowout win vs. Georgia
Case Against: Loss against Clemson isn’t very bad
Analysis: The Illini look to be in good shape so far. They should cruise until the big game at Missouri, which could vault them into lock status.
Wisconsin (8-2)
Case For: Wins at Virginia Tech and at San Diego
Case Against: Losses at UConn and at Marquette are understandable
Analysis: A murderous schedule has Wisconsin on the bubble, but they look safe for now, as they have done nothing to hurt themselves. Wisconsin should be 9-2 headed into a huge game vs. Texas, where a win puts them in as a lock.
Bubble
Minnesota (9-0)
Case For: They are undefeated
Case Against: Weak schedule
Analysis: Being undefeated looks great, but Minnesota’s best win is at home over ACC doormat Virginia. A win over Louisville would be great for them, as there aren’t any remaining nonconference games that can help.
Northwestern (7-1)
Case For: Wins vs. Florida State and blowout win vs. DePaul
Case Against: Loss at Butler, not harmful yet
Analysis: Northwestern has put together a respectable nonconference resume, capped by the win over Florida State. A win at Stanford would give the Wildcats a huge boost, and put them in a good position to challenge for their first-ever NCAA bid.
Treading Water
Penn State (8-2); Iowa (8-2)
Conference USA_________________________________
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
UAB (6-3)
Case For: Win at Arizona
Case Against: Three losses, although none are bad
Analysis: The Blazers are an intriguing case, and should be rewarded for their nonconference schedule. Losses to Oklahoma, Boston College and Cincinnati probably won’t hurt them if they have a strong league showing, although they probably need a win over either Butler or Louisville to feel good about their chances.
Houston (6-1)
Case For: Win over Western Kentucky
Case Against: Curious loss to Georgia Southern
Analysis: After the season opening stink bomb against Georgia Southern, Houston has a chance for an 11-1 start heading into CUSA play, but it would require some good wins over Mississippi State, Iowa State and UMass. If they run the nonconference table, they will be in good shape.
East Carolina (8-1)
Case For: Win over VCU, Overall Record
Case Against: Loss vs. George Mason, weak schedule
Analysis: The Pirates are in the discussion, but only because their gimme wins are sandwiched around a nice 2-1 record against the CAA, including a win over conference power VCU. Golden opportunities wait vs. NC State and at Wake Forest. A win in either means the Pirates are in OK shape heading into conference play. They need a second quality win.
Treading Water
Tulsa (6-4)
Missouri Valley__________________________________________
Locks
None
Near Locks
Illinois State (10-0)
Case For: Overall record
Case Against: Schedule has been weak so far
Analysis: The Redbirds keep rolling along, but the road ahead is tough: UIC, Missouri State, Evansville and Creighton are their next four games. A 3-1 showing during that stretch will put them in as a lock.
Creighton (8-2)
Case For: Wins over New Mexico, Dayton and at St. Joseph’s
Case Against: Losses aren’t that bad
Analysis: The Bluejays are in good shape, and the Dayton win should pay off all year. The losses to UALR and at Nebraska aren’t very harmful. A strong MVC showing will help seal the deal.
Bubble
Evansville (7-1)
Case For: Win over Buffalo, 32 point win over Western Kentucky
Case Against: Loss at Butler is the only hiccup
Analysis: The Aces get a style point deduction for ditching the T-Shirt jerseys. But seriously, after the Aces get their butts handed to them at North Carolina, they should be in OK shape heading into league play. More quality wins could come from those MVC games to shore up the resume.
Treading Water
Drake (8-3); Missouri State (5-3); Bradley (5-4)
Mountain West__________________________________________
Locks
BYU
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Wyoming (8-1)
Case For: Overall record
Case Against: Very easy schedule
Analysis: Wyoming benefits from having a good record in a very good conference. Nothing really says “tournament team” yet, but at least they are winning.
UNLV (8-2)
Case For: Wins at UTEP and at Nevada
Case Against: Losses to California and Cincinnati
Analysis: UNLV is likely a NCAA team, and they have a decent resume so far, with two valuable road wins. They also have great opportunities coming up against Arizona and Louisville. A win in either of those leaves some cushion for what should be a tough league slate.
Treading Water
Air Force (7-2); New Mexico (6-4); Utah (5-4); TCU (7-4); San Diego State (6-3)
SEC____________________________________________________
Locks
Tennessee
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Florida (7-2)
Case For: Wins over Washington and Bradley
Case Against: Lost to fellow bubblers Florida State and Syracuse
Analysis: The Gators have hype (which can help), but not much of a resume. They better finish above .500 in SEC play to feel safe.
LSU (8-0)
Case For: They’re undefeated!
Case Against: Eight straight easy nonconference games is the reason.
Analysis: The Tigers get a dose of reality against Texas A&M Saturday. It looks like worst case would be a 10-2 record heading into conference play. The RPI could be a bit of a drag, as their schedule was ridiculously easy.
Kentucky (7-3)
Case For: Wins vs. West Virginia, Kansas State, Lamar, Indiana
Case Against: Three losses; who would have thought the VMI loss wouldn’t be fatal? It isn’t yet.
Analysis: Personally, this is painful because I loathe Kentucky. But a closer look at the resume shows that Kentucky has what a few of their SEC mates do not: decent wins. Any missteps, and I will have the pleasure of dropping them down a peg.
South Carolina (7-1)
Case For: Overall record
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: I don’t know why I put them here. They haven’t played anyone yet. But I’m too lazy to delete all of this. But seriously, games against Clemson and Baylor leave them on life support for now.
Arkansas (7-1)
Case For: Win at South Alabama
Case Against: Weak schedule
Analysis: The Razorbacks get a real test against Oklahoma before SEC play. They are winning games, and the loss at Missouri State is understandable. They are on thin ice for now, however.
Treading Water
Mississippi (7-3); Alabama (5-3); Vanderbilt (7-3); Georgia (6-3); Mississippi State (7-3)
Pac-10__________________________________________________
Locks
Arizona State
Near Locks
UCLA (5-2)
Case For: They are supposed to be good; Preseason ranking
Case Against: Weak profile thus far
Analysis: The Bruins will probably be in the NCAA Tournament, and probably with a high seed. At this moment, they have yet to beat anyone decent outside of Southern Illinois. UCLA benefits from being highly ranked in the preseason, as the only two good teams they have played have beaten them. Six straight home nonconference games will help pad their record and give them a lofty, although undeserved, national ranking.
Bubble
California (7-2)
Case For: Convincing win at UNLV
Case Against: Two losses, slaughtered at Missouri by 27.
Analysis: The Bears got a needed road win at Utah to stay in consideration. They played a respectable nonconference schedule, which should help their computer numbers. If they slip between now and the end of December, they will need a strong league showing.
Stanford (5-0)
Case For: Overall record
Case Against: They probably won’t stay here long.
Analysis: Home dates against Northwestern and Texas Tech allow the Cardinal to stay in consideration, as a win in those two contests make them true bubble contenders. They haven’t played a very tough schedule so far.
Arizona (7-2)
Case For: Win over Gonzaga
Case Against: Losses to fellow Bubblers UAB and Texas A&M
Analysis: The Wildcats staked a Bubble claim with their win over previously invincible Gonzaga. Games against UNLV and Kansas are huge. The profile is decent thus far.
Treading Water
Washington State (7-3); USC (6-3); Washington (6-3)
West Coast_________________________________________________
Locks
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (7-1)
Case For: Wins over Fresno State, vs. Providence; Tough nonconference schedule
Case Against: Could be handed a tough loss, loss at UTEP isn’t bad
Analysis: The Gaels are in decent shape, but would be well served to avoid any “bad” losses along the way. Beating Oregon and Southern Illinois in tough road games will get them to Lock status. Even if they stumble in the next month, they should excel in WCC play and possibly knock off Gonzaga for a marquee win.
Treading Water
Portland (5-2)
