Bubble Tracker returns, and there has been a significant amount of movement. Xavier and Gonzaga have been somewhat exposed, and some previously untested teams have come through in big spots. Others fell off the face of the earth (ahem - Seton hall).
ACC__________________________________________________________
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Near Locks
Florida State (11-2)
Case For: Overall record; Win at Florida, Wins vs. Cincinnati, vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Northwestern
Analysis: The Seminoles are in decent shape, but could slip back onto the bubble soon. The loss to Pitt isn't fatal, but it would have been a deal maker had they won. Beating Western Kentucky on Sunday would help.
Bubble
Miami (7-3)
Case For: Win at Kentucky, 35 point Win over San Diego
Case Against: Losses weren't bad until Clemson
Analysis: Miami tumbles into the world of bubble after getting hammered at home by Clemson. The Canes have a very tough opening stretch in the ACC, with games at BC and UNC looming. Reeling off four more nonconference wins before those tests will let them breathe a little easier.
Maryland (8-2)
Case For: Wins over Michigan State and Michigan
Case Against: Lopsided losses vs. Gonzaga and vs. Georgetown; Vermont W in OT
Analysis: Not much action or movement for the Terps They are still an interesting case, especially if the Michigan State and Michigan wins hold up as “marquee”. What does the committee look into most – the wins or lopsided nature of the losses?
Boston College (10-2)
Case For: Wins over UAB, Iowa and St. John’s
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis
Analysis: The Eagles have quietly put themselves in a good spot after the win over Providence. The UAB win looks very good, but it remains to be seen how the Iowa and St. John’s wins look in a month. The loss to Purdue makes sense, and the loss at St. Louis isn’t terrible. Three more gimmes are sandwiched around a trip to Chapel Hill.
Treading Water
Virginia Tech (8-4); Georgia Tech (7-3); NC State (7-2)
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Locks
Xavier, Dayton
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Rhode Island (8-4)
Case For: Wins vs. VCU and at Penn State
Case Against: Four not-bad losses, but losses nonetheless
Analysis: If close counted, the Rams would be in a great position. Right now, they are on the outer edges of the bubble. The close calls at Duke and at Providence probably have them on the outside looking in. The Oklahoma State loss was their last chance at a marquee nonconference win.
Treading Water
Temple (5-5)
Big East_________________________________________________
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse
Near Locks
Louisville (7-2)
Case For: Preseason ranking
Case Against: Strange losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota.
Analysis: They are probably fine, but they have two curious losses. Games against UAB, UNLV, and Kentucky could get them back on track. Right now, the jury is out on this team.
Notre Dame (9-2)
Case For: Win vs. Texas
Case Against: Two understandable losses
Analysis: Wait – Notre Dame may be overrated? Stop the presses. This is a good, but not great, team that will be in the NCAA Tournament. The win over Texas is good enough for now, but expect a couple missteps in the Big East.
Bubble
West Virginia (10-2)
Case For: Win vs. Iowa, at Mississippi, crushed Miami (OH)
Case Against: How did they lose to Kentucky?
Analysis: The Mountaineers had two good wins this week, and are in good shape. Beating Miami (OH) by 36 is impressive, as is a 35 point win over better-than-you-think Radford. A win Saturday at Ohio State would make them a lock.
Cincinnati (10-2)
Case For: Win vs. UAB
Case Against: Loss at Florida State, blown out at home by Xavier - and they suck.
Analysis: The Bearcats helped themselves with the game against Mississippi State. A huge game at Memphis comes on Sunday, and a win will put Cincy in great shape. I still don't think they're any good.
Treading Water
Providence (8-4); Seton Hall (8-3); St. John's (9-2); Rutgers (9-3)
Big Twelve__________________________________________________________
Locks
Oklahoma, Texas
Near Locks
Baylor (10-1)
Case For: Wins at Arizona State and at Washington State
Case Against: Loss at Wake Forest doesn’t hurt at all
Analysis: After a close call against UT-Arlington, the Bears are still in great shape. They have a couple good wins and an easy slate coming up. The only reason they aren’t locks is an iffy possible RPI, as the rest of the nonconference schedule is a breeze.
Texas A&M (10-1)
Case For: Win vs. Arizona, Win at Alabama, Win vs. LSU
Case Against: Loss at Tulsa
Analysis: The Aggies got a huge win against LSU and look to be in good shape. They could be looking at 14-1 headed into conference play.
Bubble
Kansas (8-3)
Case For: Win over Washington
Case Against: They lost to UMass. Yes, UMass. Hammered by Arizona
Analysis: Why were they ranked again? A closer look at the profile reveals that Kansas is not in good shape. A horrible loss at UMass now stands out above any positives (and there aren’t many) in the resume. They needed a win over Arizona to recover, but were blown out. There is big trouble in Jayhawkland.
Missouri (9-2)
Case For: Overall record: Wins vs. USC and vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Xavier is excusable
Analysis: Mizzou is in decent shape, given that they have only lost to good teams, and they have a couple decent wins. The loss to Illinois is disheartening, but not devastating. A good league showing should be enough for the Tigers.
Treading Water
Texas Tech (9-3); Oklahoma State (8-3); Kansas State (8-3)
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Locks
Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State
Near Locks
Minnesota (11-0)
Case For: They are undefeated, win over Louisville
Case Against: Weak schedule until the Louisville win
Analysis: The win over Louisville announced the Gopher's arrival on the national scene. It is up to them how long they stay there, as they have to show pretty well in conference play. It's nice for them to have a marquee win on the resume.
Illinois (11-1)
Case For: Overall record, Wins at Vanderbilt, at Kent State, at Missouri and blowout win vs. Georgia
Case Against: Loss against Clemson isn’t bad
Analysis: The Illini look to be in good shape so far. The win over Missouri prboably puts them in the tournament for now, although a few conference mates look a little better.
Bubble
Wisconsin (9-3)
Case For: Wins at Virginia Tech and at San Diego
Case Against: Losses at UConn, at Marquette and vs. Texas are understandable
Analysis: Wisconsin is good, and should be a tournament team, but a marquee win would be nice. They should get a couple in conference play to shore up their resume, and their RPI will probably be high. Right now, they are teetering on the edge.
Northwestern (8-2)
Case For: Wins vs. Florida State and blowout win vs. DePaul
Case Against: Losses at Butler and at Stanford
Analysis: Northwestern has put together a respectable nonconference resume, capped by the win over Florida State. The win at Stanford would have been nice, but the Wildcats are still breathing. Big Ten play is next, and plenty of opportunities for big wins come with it. The schedule is tough, so we will soon find out about this team.
Penn State (11-2)
Case For: Overall record, win at Georgia Tech
Case Against: Relatively easy schedule; Losses to Temple and Rhode Island aren't bad.
Analysis: The surprising Nittany Lions find themselves on the outskirts of the bubble after avoiding any bad losses. There isn't much to the resume yet, but they are winning games that they should win. A big game waits against Northwestern on Dec. 31st.
Treading Water
Iowa (9-3)
Conference USA_________________________________
Locks
None
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Memphis (7-3)
Case For: Reputation
Case Against: Losses to Xavier, Syracuse and Georgetown
Analysis: Let's all welcome Memphis to the bubble! The Tigers have been beaten by the best three teams they have played, and their best win was over Seton Hall. Memphis is in the discussion on preseason expectations alone at this point. A dominant CUSA run would help, but with this resume they better be careful.
UAB (8-3)
Case For: Win at Arizona
Case Against: Three losses, although none are bad
Analysis: The Blazers are an intriguing case, and should be rewarded for their nonconference schedule. Losses to Oklahoma, Boston College and Cincinnati probably won’t hurt them if they have a strong league showing, although they probably need a win over either Butler or Louisville to feel good about their chances. It will be difficult for the Blazers to keep it up after the shocking loss of four players, with two leaving the team and two academically ineligible. Life is full of surprises when Mike Davis is running the show.
Houston (7-1)
Case For: Win over Western Kentucky
Case Against: Curious loss to Georgia Southern
Analysis: After the season opening stink bomb against Georgia Southern, Houston has a chance for an 11-1 start heading into CUSA play, but it would require some good wins over Mississippi State, Iowa State and UMass. If they run the nonconference table, they will be in good shape.
Treading Water
East Carolina (8-3); Tulsa (8-4); Southern Miss (8-4)
Missouri Valley__________________________________________
Locks
Illinois State
Near Locks
Creighton (10-2)
Case For: Wins over New Mexico, Dayton and at St. Joseph’s
Case Against: Losses aren’t that bad
Analysis: The Bluejays are in good shape, and the Dayton win should pay off all year. The losses to UALR and at Nebraska aren’t very harmful. A strong MVC showing will help seal the deal.
Bubble
Evansville (8-2)
Case For: Win over Buffalo, 32 point win over Western Kentucky
Case Against: Loss at Butler is the only hiccup
Analysis: Take THAT, North Carolina A&T! After the sacrificial loss to UNC, the Aces beat NC A&T, and end up in the same position as they were last week. The 32-point win over Western Kentucky will be the gift that keeps on giving. They have a lot of work to do in MVC play.
Drake (9-3)
Case For: Wins over New Mexico, Iowa, Iowa State
Case Against: Loss to Stephen F Austin
Analysis: A handful of good wins puts the Bulldogs in the at-large mix. The loss to SFA isn't terrible, and Drake has a golden opportunity this week at Evansville. This team has a chance to rise fairly rapidly if they perform well in the MVC.
Treading Water
Missouri State (7-4)
Mountain West__________________________________________
Locks
BYU
Near Locks
UNLV (11-2)
Case For: Wins at UTEP, vs. Arizona and at Nevada
Case Against: Losses to California and Cincinnati
Analysis: UNLV is likely a NCAA team, and they have a decent resume so far, with two valuable road wins. The blowout of Arizona has the Rebels in good shape going into a game against Louisville. A win over the Cardinals leaves them plenty of cushion for what should be a brutal league stretch.
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Wyoming (9-2); Air Force (8-2); New Mexico (8-5); San Diego State (8-3)
SEC____________________________________________________
Locks
Tennessee
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Florida (9-2)
Case For: Wins over Washington and Bradley
Case Against: Lost to fellow bubblers Florida State and Syracuse
Analysis: The Gators have hype (which can help), but not much of a resume. The only tough nonconference game is against NC State, which means they should have a gaudy record heading into SEC play. They better finish above .500 in SEC play to feel safe.
LSU (9-1)
Case For: Overall record.
Case Against: Eight straight easy nonconference games.
Analysis: The Tigers lost at Texas A&M in a game which could have validated their early season success. Games against Washington State and Utah are two more tests. This is a hard team to judge right now.
Kentucky (9-3)
Case For: Wins vs. West Virginia, Kansas State, and Indiana
Case Against: Three losses; who would have thought the VMI loss wouldn’t be fatal? It isn’t yet.
Analysis: Personally, this is painful because I loathe Kentucky. But a closer look at the resume shows that Kentucky has what a few of their SEC mates do not: decent wins. Any missteps, and I will have the pleasure of dropping them down a peg.
South Carolina (9-1)
Case For: Overall record
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: They haven't played anyone yet, but games against Clemson and at Baylor are huge opportunities for the Gamecocks. A win in either will be beneficial.
Arkansas (8-1)
Case For: Win at South Alabama
Case Against: Weak schedule
Analysis: The Razorbacks get a real test against Oklahoma before SEC play. They are winning games, and the loss at Missouri State is understandable. They are on thin ice for now, however.
Treading Water
Mississippi (8-4); Alabama (7-3); Vanderbilt (9-3); Georgia (7-4); Mississippi State (8-4)
Pac-10__________________________________________________
Locks
Arizona State
Near Locks
UCLA (9-2)
Case For: They are supposed to be good; Preseason ranking
Case Against: Weak profile thus far
Analysis: The Bruins will probably be in the NCAA Tournament, and probably with a high seed. At this moment, they have yet to beat anyone decent outside of Southern Illinois. UCLA benefits from being highly ranked in the preseason, as the only two good teams they have played have beaten them. Six straight home nonconference games will help pad their record and give them a lofty, although undeserved, national ranking.
Bubble
California (9-2)
Case For: Convincing win at UNLV, win vs. Nevada
Case Against: Two losses, slaughtered at Missouri by 27.
Analysis: Cal is in decent shape, although two home wins over the Arizona schools would improve their position considerably. They played a respectable nonconference schedule, which should help their computer numbers.
Stanford (8-0)
Case For: Overall record, win over Northwestern
Case Against: Not much of one.
Analysis: The win over Northwestern was great, but not enough to make Stanford a shoo-in. A win over Texas Tech would do the trick. The Cardinal don't have to do anything spectacular in Pac10 play, but they should aim for a 10-8 finish in the league to feel safe.
Arizona (8-3)
Case For: Win over Gonzaga, win vs. Kansas
Case Against: Losses to fellow Bubblers UAB, UNLV and Texas A&M
Analysis: The bipolar Wildcats lost big at UNLV and then followed that up with a big win over Kansas. The profile is decent thus far, and quality wins always help.
Treading Water
Washington State (8-3); USC (8-3); Washington (7-3)
West Coast_________________________________________________
Locks
None
Near Locks
Gonzaga (8-3)
Case For: Wins vs. Maryland, Washington State, Tennessee
Case Against: Loss at home to Portland State
Analysis: The Zags are probably fine, but the air of invincibility is gone after a loss to Big Sky favorite Portland State. Just a week ago, they were being touted as a Final Four team, and now they aren't even the best team in their mid-major conference. They should dominate WCC play, but pretty soon wins over Gonzaga should be called just "wins" and not "upsets".
St. Mary’s (9-1)
Case For: Wins over Fresno State, vs. Providence; Tough nonconference schedule
Case Against: Could be handed a tough loss, loss at UTEP isn’t bad
Analysis: The Gaels are in decent shape, but would be well served to avoid any “bad” losses along the way. Beating Oregon in a tough road game will get them to Lock status. Even if they stumble in the next month, they should excel in WCC play and possibly knock off Gonzaga for a marquee win.
Treading Water
San Francisco (7-5)
