Let’s all thank Joe Lunardi for reminding us why we created this site in the first place: ESPN’s tournament projections are grossly biased towards the major teams and conferences, and often defy logic, common sense and any semblance of basketball expertise. For s___s and giggles, let’s take a look at Lunardi’s interpretation of two teams, which shall remain nameless for now:
Team A: 10-3, RPI of 26. Their best wins are over Seton Hall and Cincinnati, neither of which is in the Top 10 of their own conference. Lunardi pegs their odds of getting a seed between 1-4 at a whopping 75%.
Team B: 11-1, RPI of 28. Their wins include Providence, Fresno State, San Diego State, and road wins at Oregon and Southern Illinois. Lunardi has their chances of staying in the field at 75%.
Is this an 8-9 game? Nope. This is a ludicrously reasoned 5-12 matchup between Memphis (Team A) and St. Mary’s (Team B). Tell me where these teams differ at all. Please, Joe, give me one good reason to believe Memphis has a better profile than St. Mary’s, let alone one that allows them to be safely in while the Gaels are supposedly teetering on the brink of the NIT? True, Memphis has some marquee games coming up, but what makes anyone think they can win those games? And how will their profile improve as they plug along in CUSA, when their conference has done nothing but adversely affect their NCAA seeding case in recent years?
Joe also throws out an 8th seed to the #3 RPI team in the country, Butler, on account that their RPI will probably go down. But I'm sure Memphis will fly up the rankings after they hammer teams like Rice and East Carolina. Nothing like a double standard, huh Joe? He also has post-UNC win Boston College squeaking in the tournament as a 10th seed, and a 13-2, #17 RPI Florida State team backing into the tournament as a 12th seed. Once again, there is no consistency to the teams or seedings, just a mishmash grouping of name teams that have no discernable differences from each other except their names and traditions.
Expect a new Bubble Tracker tonight or tomorrow, with all mid and low majors included. Unfortunately listing those teams will be short work, as not many are in a position to challenge for an at large (at this moment).
