Bubble Tracker returns with blurbs pertaining to each conference. Updated through Tuesday's action.
ACC__________________________________________________________
Boston College’s win over UNC in Chapel Hill seemingly opens the playing field for everyone else in the ACC. That is up for debate, but what it really does is show that the conference should get more than five bids to the tournament this year.
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Near Locks
Boston College (13-2; 1-0) RPI 30
Case For: Wins over North Carolina, UAB, Iowa and St. John’s
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis
Analysis: The Eagles got the most significant card in the at-large deck with a shocking win over North Carolina in Chapel Hill. They have a very good profile, and would be in the tournament if it started today. Taking care of business in the ACC (at least 8-8) will be important, but right now BC is in the 8-9 seed range.
Florida State (13-2; 0-0) RPI: 17
Case For: Overall record; Win at Florida, Wins vs. Cincinnati, vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Northwestern
Analysis: The Seminoles are in great shape, as their overall record and quality wins continue to look better. The Seminoles appear likely to break through to the NCAA's, but can they jump into the upper tier of the ACC?
Bubble
Miami (10-3; 0-1) RPI 55
Case For: Win at Kentucky, 35 point Win over San Diego
Case Against: Losses weren't bad until Clemson
Analysis: Miami tumbled into the world of bubble after getting hammered at home by Clemson, but may have righted the ship with four straight wins. The Canes have a very tough opening stretch in the ACC, with games at BC and UNC looming.
Maryland (11-2; 0-0) RPI 50
Case For: Wins over Michigan State and Michigan
Case Against: Lopsided losses vs. Gonzaga and vs. Georgetown
Analysis: Not much action or movement for the Terps. They are still an interesting case, especially if the Michigan State and Michigan wins hold up as “marquee”. What does the committee look into most – the wins or lopsided nature of the losses?
Treading Water
Virginia Tech (9-5; 0-1) RPI: 62; NC State (9-3; 0-0) RPI 134
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Not much movement. Temple is still breathing due to their lofty RPI, but suffer from too many losses.
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
Dayton (13-1; 0-0) RPI 44
Case For: Overall record, win at Marquette
Case Against: RPI, schedule strength
Analysis: They are only here based on an iffy RPI, but a win over Miami Ohio will put them back in as a lock.
Bubble
Rhode Island (10-4; 0-0) RPI 41
Case For: Wins vs. VCU and at Penn State
Case Against: Four not-bad losses, but losses nonetheless
Analysis: If close counted, the Rams would be in a great position. Right now, they are on the outer edges of the bubble. The close calls at Duke and at Providence probably have them on the outside looking in. The Oklahoma State loss was their last chance at a marquee nonconference win. They should be on the bubble all year long.
Treading Water
Temple (6-6; 0-0) RPI 24
Big East_________________________________________________
West Virginia jumps into the field after the huge win at Ohio State, even with the loss to UConn. Despite a horrible loss at St. John's, Notre Dame's win over Georgetown gives them two impressive scalps and puts them in the tournament. Cincinnati tumbles after back-to-back blowout losses. There is a clear difference between the haves and the have-nots in this conference.
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Marquette
Near Locks
Louisville (9-3; 0-0) RPI 45
Case For: Preseason ranking, wins vs. Kentucky, UAB, Mississippi
Case Against: Losses to Western Kentucky, UNLV and Minnesota.
Analysis: They are probably fine, but they have some curious losses. The win over Kentucky was crucial. They don’t have the profile to absorb many more bad losses, and the RPI is pretty low.
Bubble
Providence (10-4; 2-0) RPI 91
Case For: No bad losses, win over Rhode Island
Case Against: No other good wins, RPI
Analysis: The Friars are a blip on the bubble radar due to overall record and nothing hurtful on the resume. They are on very thin ice.
Treading Water
Cincinnati (9-4; 0-1) RPI 53; St. John's (10-4; 1-1) RPI 131
Big Twelve__________________________________________________________
Not much new in Big Twelve world, as losses by Oklahoma and Baylor keep the pecking order as-is for the meantime.
Locks
Oklahoma, Texas
Near Locks
Baylor (11-2; 0-0) RPI 61
Case For: Wins at Arizona State and at Washington State
Case Against: Loss at Wake Forest, vs. South Carolina
Analysis: A home loss to South Carolina nearly puts the Bears on the bubble, but they remain OK for now. The win against Arizona State is keeping them afloat. A tough stretch of games lies ahead.
Texas A&M (13-1; 0-0) RPI 51
Case For: Win vs. Arizona, Win at Alabama, Win vs. LSU
Case Against: Loss at Tulsa
Analysis: The Aggies rolled through nonconference play with an impressive record. They probably have enough to overcome a mediocre conference record, but need to raise the RPI a bit.
Kansas (11-3; 0-0) RPI 50
Case For: Wins over Washington, Tennessee
Case Against: They lost to UMass. Hammered by Arizona
Analysis: Kansas makes a jump after a quality win over Tennessee and a good win over a decent Siena team. They have a decent profile and RPI at the moment.
Bubble
Missouri (12-2; 0-0) RPI 59
Case For: Overall record: Wins vs. USC and vs. California
Case Against: Losses at Xavier, vs. Illinois is excusable
Analysis: Mizzou is in decent shape, given that they have only lost to good teams, and they have a couple decent wins. The loss to Illinois is disheartening, but not devastating. A good league showing should be enough for the Tigers.
Oklahoma State (11-3; 0-0) RPI 33
Case For: RPI, win over Rhode Island
Case Against: Lack of quality wins
Analysis: Their wins aren’t great, and their losses aren’t bad, so the Cowboys are somewhat stuck in limbo. The conference slate should give them a chance to make their mark.
Treading Water
Texas Tech (9-5; 0-0) RPI 93; Nebraska (10-3; 0-0) RPI 123; Iowa State (10-4; 0-0) RPI 122; Kansas State (10-3; 0-0) RPI 83
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Purdue has taken a big tumble with a rough conference start and a low RPI. Northwestern and Ohio State are also on downturns. This conference is tough, and the cannibalism has just begun.
Locks
Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota
Near Locks
Ohio State (10-3; 1-2) RPI 15
Case For: RPI, wins over Butler, Notre Dame, and Miami
Case Against: Lost three of four
Analysis: The Buckeyes hit a bump in the road and have lost three of four, including a national TV beatdown by West Virginia. Great wins over Butler, Notre Dame and at Miami would put them in the field if it were Selection Sunday.
Wisconsin (10-3) RPI 13
Case For: Wins at Virginia Tech and at Michigan
Case Against: Losses at UConn, at Marquette and vs. Texas are understandable
Analysis: Wisconsin’s tough schedule pays off with a lofty RPI, bolstered by a good win over Michigan. The Badgers are as good as in for now.
Illinois (13-2; 1-1) RPI 29
Case For: Wins at Vanderbilt, at Missouri at Purdue
Case Against: Loss against Clemson isn’t bad
Analysis: The Illini look to be in good shape. The split at Purdue and at Michigan was very beneficial and four of the next five Big Ten games are at hime.
Purdue (11-4; 0-2) RPI 74
Case For: Wins over Davidson, BC
Case Against: RPI, Loss at Penn State
Analysis: The Boilermakers are very good, so the conference stumble is surprising. They do have wins over BC and Davidson, but need to at least go .500 in conference play
to get in the Big Dance.
Bubble
Penn State (13-3; 2-1) RPI 75
Case For: Wins at Georgia Tech, vs. Purdue
Case Against: Relatively easy schedule; Losses to Temple and Rhode Island aren't bad.
Analysis: The surprising Nittany Lions find themselves on the bubble after upsetting Purdue and taking Wisconsin to the brink in Madison. The upcoming schedule is brutal, so they will continue to be tested.
Treading Water
Iowa (11-4; 1-1) RPI 49; Northwestern (8-4; 0-2) RPI 40
Conference USA_________________________________
Unless UAB picks things up, it looks like CUSA may be a one-bid league. Nobody else has a good at large case right now.
Locks
None
Near Locks
Memphis (10-3; 0-0) RPI 25
Case For: Reputation, win over Cincinnati
Case Against: Losses to Xavier, Syracuse and Georgetown
Analysis: The Tigers reeled off four straight Top-100 wins to bolster their profile. Games against Tennessee and Gonzaga come in the middle of conference play. A win in either coupled with a good (i.e. first place) CUSA run will be more than enough.
Bubble
UAB (9-5; 0-0) RPI 34
Case For: Win at Arizona
Case Against: Five losses, although none are bad
Analysis: The Blazers are an intriguing case, and should be rewarded for their nonconference schedule. The worst team they have lost to is probably Louisville, which happens to be the only non-competitive loss. They probably need to knock off Memphis to get back on the right side of the bubble.
Treading Water
Southern Miss (6-4; 0-0) RPI 82; UTEP (9-5; 0-0) RPI 71; Houston (9-3; 0-0) RPI 152
Missouri Valley__________________________________________
Illinois State fell for the first time, but remain a lock. Bradley, Drake and Evansville are in the discussion, while Creighton is hurting.
Locks
Illinois State
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Creighton (12-4; 2-2) RPI 90
Case For: Wins over New Mexico, Dayton
Case Against: Two straight losses, RPI
Analysis: The Bluejays are in trouble thanks to a two game skid in the MVC. The RPI is really low for an at large candidate, and getting blown out at league foe Illinois State doesn’t help. They have really made it difficult for themselves.
Evansville (8-3; 2-1) RPI 29
Case For: Win over Buffalo, 32 point win over Western Kentucky, win over Drake
Case Against: Lost by 30 to Illinois State
Analysis: Evansville either wins by a lot or loses by a lot. Every big quality win is offset by a blowout loss, although none are to bad teams. Still, their RPI is great and Creighton’s slide opens the door for a new #2 in the MVC.
Drake (10-4; 2-1) RPI 79
Case For: Wins over New Mexico, Iowa, Iowa State
Case Against: Loss to Stephen F Austin
Analysis: A handful of good wins puts the Bulldogs in the at-large mix. The loss to SFA isn't terrible. The RPI is iffy, but they have a few easy MVC games coming up. They are in the mix for the league title, which helps.
Bradley (9-5; 4-0) RPI 48
Case For: MVC leaders, Win over Illinois State
Case Against: Bad loss against UMKC
Analysis: The MVC leaders arrive on the bubble scene after handing Illinois State their first loss. The RPI is ok, but the Illinois State win is really all they have on the resume. Staying atop the league will be a huge plus.
Treading Water
None
Mountain West__________________________________________
Three teams (BYU, UNLV and Utah) are looking good, while one (San Diego State) is searching for a signature win to join the conversation. Outside of that, someone has to make a major conference move.
Locks
None
Near Locks
BYU (11-2; 0-0) RPI 38
Case For: Wins over Utah State, Boise State
Case Against: No signature wins
Analysis: The Cougars are a tournament team, but need to do a little work to ensure it happens. They would be fairly safely in if the tournament started today, but close calls against Arizona State and Wake Forest leave the overall resume a little lacking. They should be fine.
UNLV (13-2; 0-0) RPI 52
Case For: Wins at UTEP, vs. Arizona, at Louisville
Case Against: Losses to California and Cincinnati
Analysis: UNLV is looking very strong after a gigantic win at Louisville. They have enough quality wins to offset a few missteps in conference play. Three of the next four are on the road.
Bubble
Utah (10-4; 1-0) RPI 21
Case For: Wins over Gonzaga, Mississippi
Case Against: Awful loss to Idaho State
Analysis: The Utes upset of Gonzaga land them squarely on the bubble, and the RPI is great. The loss to 3-11 Idaho State will haunt them. Their best bet is to jump into the top 2 in the MWC.
Treading Water
Wyoming (9-4; 0-1) RPI 117; San Diego State (9-3; 1-0) RPI 67
SEC____________________________________________________
Locks
Tennessee
Near Locks
Arkansas (12-1; 0-0) RPI 50
Case For: Wins vs. Oklahoma and Texas
Case Against: Weak schedule
Analysis: The Razorbacks had a fantastic stretch in which they beat the two best teams in the Big Twelve, Texas and Oklahoma. It’s hard to argue their resume at this point, but the RPI isn’t where it should be for a shoo-in team. For now, their big wins get them in.
Bubble
Kentucky (11-4; 0-0) RPI 73
Case For: Wins vs. West Virginia, Kansas State
Case Against: Record and RPI are shaky
Analysis: A heartbreaker at Louisville sends the Wildcats back to the bubble. The West Virginia win is still great, while the VMI loss still hurts. They need a winning record in SEC play to have a good case.
Florida (13-2; 0-0) RPI 43
Case For: Wins over Washington, NC State and Bradley
Case Against: Lost to fellow bubblers Florida State and Syracuse; Easy schedule
Analysis: The Gators have hype (which can help), but not much of a resume. On the positive side, there is nothing in the resume that hurts them. They better finish above .500 in SEC play to feel safe.
South Carolina (11-2; 0-0) RPI 102
Case For: Overall record, win at Baylor
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: The win at Baylor keeps the Gamecocks in the game for now, but the RPI is bad for a bubble team. They still have plenty of conference work to do.
Treading Water
LSU (12-2; 0-0) RPI 125; Mississippi (9-5; 0-0) RPI 81; Vanderbilt (11-3; 0-0) RPI 76;
Pac-10__________________________________________________
UCLA moves into lock status because they will win enough games to earn a high seed and be highly ranked, despite their RPI of . We stand by our assessment of UCLA. Cal's big win over Arizona State is also enough to push them into the tournament.. Their resume continues to improve.
Locks
Arizona State, UCLA, California
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Stanford (11-1; 1-1) RPI 38
Case For: Wins over Northwestern, Arizona, Texas Tech
Case Against: Not much of one.
Analysis: The Arizona win helps, and the loss to Arizona State doesn’t hurt much. They look pretty strong right now. The Cardinal don't have to do anything spectacular in Pac10 play, but they should aim for a 10-8 finish in the league to feel safe.
Arizona (9-5; 0-2) RPI 57
Case For: Wins over Gonzaga and Kansas
Case Against: Losses to fellow Bubblers UAB, UNLV and Texas A&M
Analysis: The bipolar Wildcats at Stanford and at California but deserve a look because of their quality wins. They need to have a winning Pac 10 record to get a shot, and their place on the bubble is tenuous, especially with the Gonzaga win losing luster.
Washington (10-3; 1-0) RPI 42
Case For: Win over Oklahoma State, decent RPI
Case Against: Loss to Portland
Analysis: The Huskies need a couple of good Pac 10 wins, but they are currently in the discussion. The loss to Portland hurts, and other than the Oklahoma State win, there isn’t a lot of heft.
Treading Water
USC (10-4; 1-1) RPI 83
West Coast_________________________________________________
A tough week lands Gonzaga on the edge of the bubble, although reputation gets them in at this point. St. Mary's continues their underrated run through a quality schedule, and remain the best team in the WCC, ESPN be damned.
Locks
None
Near Locks
Gonzaga (7-4; 0-0) RPI 32
Case For: Wins vs. Maryland, Washington State, Tennessee
Case Against: Loss at home to Portland State, Loss to Utah
Analysis: The Zags are probably fine, but the recent string of losses proves they aren't an elite team, just a very good one. Two weeks ago, they were being touted as a Final Four team, and now they aren't even the best team in their mid-major conference. They should dominate WCC play, but pretty soon wins over Gonzaga should be called just "wins" and not "upsets".
St. Mary’s (11-1; 0-0) RPI 28
Case For: Wins over Fresno State, vs. Providence; Tough nonconference schedule
Case Against: Could be handed a tough loss, loss at UTEP isn’t bad
Analysis: The Gaels are in decent shape, but would be well served to avoid any “bad” losses along the way. Beating Oregon in a tough road game will get them to Lock status. Even if they stumble in the next month, they should excel in WCC play and possibly knock off Gonzaga for a marquee win.
Bubble
None
Treading Water
None
Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here. Past history shows that teams below that threshold wont get a decent look, fair or not. Cleveland State falls off the bubble with a rocky 2-2 start to league play. Davidson is in regardless of what happens at Duke.
Locks
Butler, Davidson
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Niagara (12-3; 3-0 MAAC) RPI 56
Case For: MAAC leaders, 6-2 road record
Case Against: Best win is at Buffalo
Analysis: The Purple Eagles have proven themselves as road warriors, but don’t have much else to hang their hat on. They likely need to dominate the MAAC to get an at large look, but with a good enough overall record, it would be tough to deny them a bid.
George Mason (10-3; 3-0 CAA) RPI 70
Case For: Best team in the CAA
Case Against: Losses to Hampton and Liberty
Analysis: The Patriots need to wreck shop in the CAA (at least 15-3) to overcome their average to below-average nonconference performance.
Western Kentucky (8-5; 3-0 Sun Belt) RPI 55
Case For: Win over Louisville
Case Against: Four lopsided losses
Analysis: The Hilltoppers, despite having the best mascot in sports, lost some momentum from the Louisville win. They have been drilled by Murray State, Evansville and Mississippi State, which is tough to overlook. A great Sun Belt showing is necessary, and beating UALR by 32 is a great start.
Siena (10-5; 4-0 MAAC) RPI 45
Case For: Wins over Boise State and Buffalo
Case Against: Missed Opportunities haunt them
Analysis: The Saints have a good RPI but a weak at large case. They need to have a dominant MAAC season to warrant a bid, as there is nothing to help them except perhaps schedule strength. And you know how TourneyBubble feels about “good losses”.
Boise State (9-3; 1-0 WAC) RPI 62
Case For: Best win is vs. Wyoming
Case Against: Got smoked by Siena and BYU
Analysis: The Broncos need to win the WAC to get a bid, and even then they have to notch a couple more quality wins. A sweep of Utah State might be the ticket.
Utah State (12-1; 1-0 WAC) RPI 66
Case For: Win over Utah. Only loss was at BYU
Case Against: Low-ish RPI
Analysis: The Aggies probably have the best bubble case of the “Others”, as their win over Utah should resonate. The loss at BYU would happen to almost anybody. A strong WAC showing will help, and a first place finish could punch their ticket.
VMI (9-2; 2-0 Big South) RPI 80
Case For: Win at Kentucky. No bad losses.
Case Against: RPI is low, and could go even lower
Analysis: The Keydets continue their amazing season and are on the bubble thanks to their win at Kentucky. Big South play may have some landmines.
Treading Water
Miami (OH) (7-5; 0-0 MAC) RPI 12; Northeastern (8-5; 3-0 CAA) RPI 69; Cleveland State (8-5; 2-2 Horizon) RPI 68; UW-Milwaukee (8-5; 5-0 Horizon) RPI 78; Buffalo (8-4; 0-0 MAC) RPI 85; VCU (8-5; 2-1 CAA) RPI 88
