The Bubble has grown in the past week, with teams alternately winning or losing their way into the Bubble discussion. The SEC is a Obama-Inauguration-like disaster to analyze, and the ACC is also a mess.
ACC__________________________________________________________
The stunning slips of Boston College and Maryland leave the rest of the ACC jockeying for the 5 and 6 spots in the conference. The real effects of the losses mean the ACC bubble just got more confusing.
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Florida State (13-3; 0-1) RPI: 34
Case For: Overall record; Wins at Florida, vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Northwestern
Analysis: The Seminoles fall from Near Lock status after the loss to Duke. While its not bad, the RPI has taken a hit and they no longer stand out among the others in the conference. Right now, they would probably slip in.
Boston College (13-3; 1-1) RPI 63
Case For: Wins over North Carolina, UAB, Iowa
Case Against: Losses vs. Harvard, at St. Louis
Analysis: The Eagles had the worst week of all the bubblers, losing at home to Harvard and Miami and having their RPI tumble into the danger zone. The UNC win still helps, but the Harvard loss may offset that. The “good wins” are also losing their luster.
Miami (11-3; 1-1) RPI 40
Case For: Wins at Kentucky, at BC
Case Against: Losses weren't bad until Clemson
Analysis: Miami got a huge win at BC to make their move towards near-lock status. Someone has to finish fifth in the ACC, right?
Maryland (12-3; 1-0) RPI 71
Case For: Wins over Michigan State and Michigan
Case Against: Bad loss vs. Morgan State; Lopsided losses vs. Gonzaga and Georgetown
Analysis: Ouch – the loss to Morgan State pretty much wiped away some very good nonconference work. The Michigan sweep still looks good, and they beat Georgia Tech to start ACC play, but they may need 9-7 in the ACC and a higher RPI to feel good.
Treading Water
Virginia Tech (10-5; 1-1) RPI: 57
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Outside of Xavier, nobody is a sure thing, as Dayton has taken a league lump already.
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Dayton (14-2; 0-1) RPI 42
Case For: Overall record, win at Marquette
Case Against: Loss at UMass
Analysis: The Flyers lost badly at UMass and now find themselves on the bubble. The record, RPI and win at Marquette are all good, but they have to at least compete for the A-10 title to have a good chance at a bid.
Rhode Island (11-5; 0-1) RPI 51
Case For: Wins vs. VCU and at Penn State
Case Against: Overall record, loss at St. Joe’s
Analysis: Rhode Island is in serious trouble after the loss at St. Joe’s. The Rams have to have a very good A-10 season to merit a good look, finishing at least 12-6. Right now the profile is slipping, but Dayton has left the #2 slot in the conference in play.
Treading Water
Temple (8-6; 1-0) RPI 36; Duquesne (11-4; 2-0) RPI 102
Big East_________________________________________________
Villanova and Notre Dame tumble, while West Virginia still benefits from a collection of good wins that are looking less and less quality. Providence is still lurking, but the “Haves” still dominate the “Have-Nots” in the Big East.
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia
Near Locks
Notre Dame (11-4; 3-2) RPI 60
Case For: Wins over Texas and Georgetown, preseason ranking
Case Against: RPI is low, loss to St. John's
Analysis: The Paper Tiger Irish fell again, and are now in danger of becoming lost in the Big East abyss. The nonconference wins were great, but people are still enamored with their performance in the loss to North Carolina. They would be in on reputation, and the two quality wins are great.
Villanova (13-3; 1-2) RPI 32
Case For: 3-0 vs. A-10 (Rhode Island, St. Joe’s, Temple)
Case Against: Only win over BCS conference team is Seton Hall
Analysis: The Wildcats loss to Louisville hurt, mostly because now people can see that Villanova doesn’t have a good win, or even a win over a team that is as good or better than them. An average Big East season could get them in trouble, especially if they don’t get a marquee win.
Bubble
Providence (11-5; 3-1) RPI 79
Case For: 3-1 conference record; Win over Rhode Island
Case Against: No other good wins, RPI
Analysis: The Friars respectably lost at Georgetown to split for the week in the Big East. Winning at Cincinnati is exactly the type of victory that can get them what they need: a 10-8 Big East record. Home shots against Marquette and Syracuse are huge.
Treading Water
None
Big Twelve__________________________________________________________
Oklahoma took Round 1 of the Big Twelve Heavyweight Battle over Texas, although both are still locked up.
Locks
Oklahoma, Texas
Near Locks
Oklahoma State (12-3; 1-0) RPI 19
Case For: RPI, wins over Rhode Island and Texas A&M
Case Against: Lopsided losses to good teams
Analysis: The Cowboys are in great position after the A&M win. The RPI is great, and the wins are starting to look better, along with no bad losses. As long as the keep up the good work and finish at least 10-8, they will be fine.
Baylor (12-2; 0-0) RPI 45
Case For: Wins at Arizona State and at Washington State
Case Against: Loss at Wake Forest, vs. South Carolina
Analysis: The Bears got the needed win vs. Texas Tech, but have a murderous schedule ahead in the next seven. A 3-4 mark in that stretch (@A&M, vs. Ok St, @KSU, @ Okla, vs. Texas, @Mizzou, vs. Kansas) would actually be impressive.
Texas A&M (13-2; 0-1) RPI 44
Case For: Win vs. Arizona, Win at Alabama, Win vs. LSU
Case Against: Loss at Tulsa
Analysis: The Aggies dropped a roadie to Oklahoma State, but are still in OK position. They probably have enough to overcome a mediocre conference record, but need to raise the RPI a bit.
Kansas (11-4; 0-0) RPI 46
Case For: Wins over Washington, Tennessee, Siena
Case Against: They lost to UMass. Hammered by Arizona
Analysis: The Jayhawks have a decent profile and RPI at the moment, and the loss at Michigan State isn’t harmful. They still need to take care of business in the Big 12, or offset an average performance with a win over Oklahoma or Texas.
Bubble
Missouri (12-3; 0-1) RPI 49
Case For: Overall record: Win vs. California
Case Against: Losses at Xavier, vs. Illinois are excusable
Analysis: Mizzou lost to Nebraska, and their profile suffers when compared to their conference mates. The win over Cal, while great, is pretty much all they have going for them.
Treading Water
Nebraska (11-3; 1-0) RPI 80; Kansas State (10-4; 0-1) RPI 105
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Another conference with clear separation, as everyone has a good to great case for a bid or no case at all. Ohio State looks most likely to take a tumble.
Locks
Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota
Near Locks
Ohio State (11-3; 1-2) RPI 30
Case For: RPI, wins over Butler, Notre Dame, and Miami
Case Against: On a bit of a downturn
Analysis: The Buckeyes remain on the right side of the bubble but need to pick up their conference record, which will be difficult. Great wins over Butler, Notre Dame and at Miami would put them in the field if it were Selection Sunday.
Wisconsin (11-4; 3-1) RPI 13
Case For: Wins at Virginia Tech and at Michigan
Case Against: Losses are all against Top-25 opponents
Analysis: Wisconsin’s tough schedule pays off with a lofty RPI, bolstered by a good win over Michigan. The Badgers remain in for now, but the nonconference resume could slip considerably.
Illinois (14-2; 2-1) RPI 27
Case For: Wins at Vanderbilt, at Missouri at Purdue
Case Against: Losses aren’t bad, so not much argument against them here
Analysis: The Illini look to be in good shape. Wins over Michigan and Wisconsin at home will lock them up, but the upcoming roadies at Michigan State and Minnesota will be tough.
Purdue (12-4; 1-2) RPI 62
Case For: Wins over Davidson, BC, Wisconsin
Case Against: RPI, Loss at Penn State
Analysis: The Boilermakers got the desperately needed win over Wisconsin to right the ship. The RPI should get a boost as long as they keep winning. They have decent wins, but need to at least go .500 in conference play to get in the Big Dance.
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Penn State (13-4; 2-2) RPI 83
Conference USA_________________________________
Only Memphis has a case for the tournament right now, meaning someone else would have to break through in the conference tournament to make the Dance. UAB is plummeting, but UTEP and Tulsa have nearly played themselves onto the bubble
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
UAB (9-6; 0-1) RPI 43; UTEP (10-5; 1-0) RPI 78; Houston (10-3; 1-0) RPI 131; Tulsa (10-5; 1-0) RPI 76
Missouri Valley__________________________________________
Illinois State fell for the second time, and have lost their lock status. The conference has no real standouts, which could be bad news for multiple bids. It looks as though they might get two, but even that is dicey. The conference is a mess right now.
Locks
None
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Illinois State (14-2; 3-2) RPI 55
Case For: Convincing Wins vs. Creighton, Evansville
Case Against: Easy schedule, RPI, loss to terrible Indiana State team
Analysis: The Redbirds tumble after a second league loss, this one a killer to 3-12 Indiana State. The conference schedule is all they have left to boost the resume, but they must avoid slipping further in the MVC pecking order. They need to compete for the title to have a legit at-large claim.
Creighton (13-4; 3-2) RPI 73
Case For: Wins over New Mexico, Dayton
Case Against: Two straight losses, RPI
Analysis: The Bluejays got a good win at Bradley to help their league cause. The RPI is low for an at large candidate, and getting blown out at league foe Illinois State doesn’t help. They need more MVC wins to feel better about their chances.
Evansville (9-4; 3-2) RPI 41
Case For: Win over Buffalo, 32 point win over Western Kentucky, win over Drake
Case Against: Lost by 30 to Illinois State
Analysis: A loss to Southern Illinois puts the Aces on the outside of the bubble and could hurt badly in the long run. Evansville either wins by a lot or loses by a lot. Every big quality win is offset by a blowout loss, although none before Southern Illinois were to bad teams.
Drake (12-4; 4-1) RPI 91
Case For: Good MVC record; Wins over New Mexico, Iowa, Iowa State
Case Against: Loss to Stephen F Austin
Analysis: The Bulldogs beat up on conference weaklings, and are still breathing because MVC leaders will always get a look. They are one slipup away from being knocked out of the conversation.
Bradley (9-6; 4-1) RPI 59
Case For: MVC leaders, Win over Illinois State
Case Against: Bad loss against UMKC
Analysis: The Braves are in danger after losing to Creighton at home. The RPI is ok, but the Illinois State win is really all they have on the resume. Staying atop the league will help, but they aren’t looking very good now.
Treading Water
None
Mountain West__________________________________________
Three teams (BYU, UNLV and Utah) are looking good, while one (San Diego State) is searching for a signature win to join the conversation. Outside of that, someone has to make a major conference move.
Locks
None
Near Locks
BYU (12-2; 1-0) RPI 33
Case For: Wins over Utah State, Boise State
Case Against: No signature wins
Analysis: The Cougars are a tournament team, but need to do a little more work to ensure it happens. They would be fairly safely in if the tournament started today, but close calls against Arizona State and Wake Forest leave the overall resume a little lacking. They would be in if the tournament was today.
Bubble
UNLV (13-3; 1-1) RPI 54
Case For: Wins at UTEP, vs. Arizona, at Louisville
Case Against: Losses to California, Cincinnati, San Diego State
Analysis: UNLV is still looking strong, but they lost some margin for error by losing to TCU. They should have enough quality wins to offset a few missteps in conference play, but they better be careful.
Utah (10-5; 1-1) RPI 22
Case For: Wins over Gonzaga, Mississippi, LSU
Case Against: Awful loss to Idaho State
Analysis: The loss at San Diego State doesn’t hurt the Utes too badly, and the RPI is still great. They survived a very tough schedule, which helps – but so does winning league games. They still have a little work to do – and lets just say Utah will remain big Gonzaga fans for the rest of the year.
San Diego State (10-3; 2-0) RPI 47
Case For: Conference play, win over UNLV, no bad losses
Case Against: Tough upcoming schedule
Analysis: The Aztecs really helped themselves with the Utah win, and have a pretty good at-large case (providing they keep winning). 11-5 in the MWC will probably do the trick, but they probably would also need a win over BYU if that doesn’t happen.
Treading Water
TCU (10-5; 2-0) RPI 85
Pac-10__________________________________________________
Stanford falls off a bit. They aren’t on the bubble because of their conference record, although the RPI is Ok. The rest of the league is running in place.
Locks
Arizona State, UCLA, California
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Arizona (11-5; 2-2) RPI 58
Case For: Wins over Gonzaga and Kansas
Case Against: Losses to fellow Bubblers UAB, UNLV and Texas A&M
Analysis: The bipolar Wildcats swept the Oregon schools to stay in TB’s god graces. They need to have a winning Pac 10 record to get a shot, and their place on the bubble is tenuous, especially with the Gonzaga win losing luster.
Washington (11-4; 2-1) RPI 37
Case For: Win over Oklahoma State, Cleveland State, Stanford, RPI
Case Against: Loss to Portland
Analysis: The Huskies need a couple of good Pac 10 wins, but they are currently in the discussion. The loss to Portland hurts, and other than the Oklahoma State win, there isn’t a lot of heft.
Treading Water
USC (10-5; 1-2) RPI 98; Stanford (11-3; 1-3) RPI 48
SEC____________________________________________________
What a mess. The SEC has no real alpha dog (does Tennessee really count?), and a logjam that stretches near the bottom of the conference. This is tough to sort out, hopefully someone will break through in conference play to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Locks
None
Near Locks
Tennessee (10-4; 1-0) RPI 26
Case For: RPI, wins over Georgetown and Marquette
Case Against: Four “good losses”
Analysis: The OT loss to Gonzaga was a true dagger and takes the Vols out of the lock list. The two Big East wins are still great, and they haven’t lost to anyone bad. They are only a couple wins away from being a lock again. They should be commended for their tough schedule.
Florida (14-2; 1-0) RPI 38
Case For: Wins over Washington, Mississippi and Bradley
Case Against: Lost to fellow bubblers Florida State and Syracuse; Easy schedule
Analysis: The Gators are near locks because of overall record, but this could change quickly in either direction. Six of the next eight are against Top-100 RPI teams, which will tell us a lot about where this team stands.
Bubble
Arkansas (12-2; 0-1) RPI 64
Case For: Wins vs. Oklahoma and Texas
Case Against: Weak schedule
Analysis: The Razorbacks lost a curious home game to Mississippi State and take a bit of a fall. The RPI isn’t where it should be for a shoo-in team but for now, their big wins might get them in.
Kentucky (12-4; 1-0) RPI 67
Case For: Wins vs. West Virginia, Kansas State, Vanderbilt
Case Against: Loss to VMI and RPI are shaky
Analysis: The Wildcats remain on the bubble. The West Virginia win is still great, while the VMI loss still hurts. They need a winning record in SEC play to have a good case – and where will marquee wins come from in this conference?
South Carolina (12-2; 1-0) RPI 87
Case For: Overall record, win at Baylor
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: A win at Baylor keeps the Gamecocks in the game for now, but the RPI is bad for a bubble team. They still have plenty of conference work to do.
Treading Water
LSU (12-3; 0-1) RPI 126; Mississippi (9-6; 0-1) RPI 72; Vanderbilt (11-4; 0-1) RPI 90; Mississippi State (10-5; 1-0) RPI 113
West Coast_________________________________________________
Gonzaga’s win over Tennessee locks them up again, and there is no good argument for keeping St. Mary’s out at this point. Lock them up as well.
Locks
Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
None
Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here. Past history shows that teams below that threshold wont get a decent look, fair or not. The good news is that teams in the discussion are generally on the rise and playing well within their conferences. Western Kentucky has lost too many games and has fallen off the bubble for now.
Locks
Butler, Davidson
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Siena (12-5; 6-0 MAAC) RPI 35
Case For: Wins over Boise State and Buffalo; RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities haunt them
Analysis: The Saints have a good RPI, and the Boise State win is looking better. They are taking care of business in the MAAC, but should shoot for at least one win over Niagara to continue the good trend. They are looking fairly good now, and should get an honest look.
Utah State (14-1; 3-0 WAC) RPI 53
Case For: Win over Utah. Only loss was at BYU
Case Against: Low-ish RPI
Analysis: The Aggies probably have the best bubble case of the “Others”, as their win over Utah should resonate. The loss at BYU would happen to almost anybody. The RPI is decent enough, and a strong WAC showing will help.
George Mason (12-3; 3-0 CAA) RPI 56
Case For: Best team in the CAA
Case Against: Losses to Hampton and Liberty
Analysis: The Patriots have continued to win CAA games, and winning the conference should hold some clout. The RPI isn’t too bad, and wins in tough roadies at VCU and Northeastern will help immensely.
Niagara (12-4; 4-1 MAAC) RPI 82
Case For: 7-3 road record
Case Against: Best win is at Buffalo
Analysis: The Purple Eagles lost badly at Marist and tumble down the RPI charts as a result. They need to reel off a winning streak to get back in any serious discussion.
Boise State (11-3; 3-0 WAC) RPI 50
Case For: RPI is ok, Best win is vs. Wyoming
Case Against: Got smoked by Siena and BYU
Analysis: The Broncos need to win the WAC to get a bid, and even then they have to notch a couple more quality wins, although the RPI is decent. They need to beat Utah State at least once to have a chance.
VCU (11-5; 4-1 CAA) RPI 69
Case For: Favorable CAA schedule
Case Against: No quality wins, losses vs. ECU and at Delaware
Analysis: The Rams land on the bubble after the RPI has risen to the acceptable level, and with a CAA schedule that has them hosting both Mason and Northeastern with no return trips. A regular season CAA title is within reach, and is also necessary for an at-large look.
Cleveland State (10-5; 4-2 Horizon) RPI 61
Case For: Win at Syracuse
Case Against: Only one bad loss, at Wright State
Analysis: The Vikings are looking much better with an OK league record to go along with their outstanding road win over Syracuse. The Horizon slate is rocky, but if they survive any more bad losses, they will get a good look.
Northeastern (10-5; 5-0 CAA) RPI 66
Case For: Tied for first in CAA, win at Providence
Case Against: Losses vs. Boston U and South Florida
Analysis: A regular season CAA crown can get the Huskies in the mix, and they are off to a good start in that regard. The RPI isn’t great, and neither is the nonconference performance.
VMI (11-2; 6-0 Big South) RPI 86
Case For: Win at Kentucky. No bad losses.
Case Against: RPI is low, and could go even lower
Analysis: The Keydets continue their amazing season and are on the bubble thanks to their win at Kentucky. They need to win the conference in the regular season going away to get a look as an at-large. Its too bad the Big South is such a drag on the computer numbers, as they would certainly be an entertaining Big Dance team.
Treading Water
Western Kentucky (9-6; 4-1 Sun Belt) RPI 70; Miami (OH) (8-5; 1-0 MAC) RPI 17; Fairfield (11-6; 4-2 MAAC) RPI 89; Wisconsin Green Bay (10-4; 4-1 Horizon) RPI 84; American (9-6; 1-0 Patriot) RPI 77
