Strange times in Bubble World, with the mid majors flaming out (ahem- MVC...) and the major conferences turning upside down (SEC). More on the SEC below, but let's put it this way: if the league was this bad at football, Skip Bayless's head would explode trying to argue that their champion should not be in the BCS. Updated through Monday's action:
ACC__________________________________________________________
Out with the old (Maryland, BC) and in with the new (Virginia Tech). League play always separates the contenders from the pretenders, and it is happening here. The Florida schools are on the rise, as they have established an upper-tier place in the ACC pecking order.
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Near Locks
Florida State (15-3; 2-1) RPI: 20
Case For: Overall record; Wins at Florida, vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Northwestern
Analysis: The Seminoles are looking solid both in the standings and on paper. The two big nonconference wins are looking great, and the RPI is also good. Tough to see them not getting a bid if the selection was today.
Miami (12-4; 2-2) RPI 32
Case For: Wins at Kentucky, at BC
Case Against: Losses weren't bad until Clemson
Analysis: Miami makes a move up after the win over Maryland and a respectable showing at UNC. The computer numbers are good, but they could use a win over the Big Four to sew things up.
Bubble
Virginia Tech (12-5; 2-1) RPI: 52
Case For: ACC record; Losses aren’t bad
Case Against: Best win is vs. BC; Tough upcoming schedule
Analysis: The Hokies jump onto the bubble after a crucial win over BC. They don’t have much help from their nonconference schedule, but all their losses were very close. The schedule coming up is murderous, but could propel them up if they can notch a road upset.
Treading Water
Boston College (13-6; 1-3 ACC) RPI 68; Maryland (12-5; 1-2 ACC) RPI 85
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
More of the same, but there have been small slips by Rhode Island and Temple. Temple’s good wins are less attractive than they used to be – and 9-7 A-10 teams do not get into the tournament.
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Dayton (16-2; 2-1) RPI 42
Case For: Overall record; win at Marquette, vs. George Mason
Case Against: Loss at UMass
Analysis: The Flyers won a crucial game at Duquesne to stay on the good side of the bubble.. The record, RPI and win at Marquette are all good, but they have to at least compete for the A-10 title to have a good chance at a bid.
Rhode Island (12-6; 1-2) RPI 61
Case For: Wins vs. VCU and at Penn State
Case Against: Overall record, loss at St. Joe’s
Analysis: Rhode Island still has a lot of work to do, but the loss to Xavier was a missed opportunity. The Rams have to have a very good A-10 season to merit a good look, finishing at least 12-6. Right now the profile is slipping.
Treading Water
Temple (9-7; 1-1) RPI 40; Duquesne (12-5; 3-1) RPI 116
Big East_________________________________________________
Villanova and Notre Dame tumble, while West Virginia still benefits from a collection of good wins that are looking less and less quality. Providence is still lurking, but the “Haves” still dominate the “Have-Nots” in the Big East.
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia
Near Locks
Villanova (14-3; 2-2) RPI 32
Case For: 3-0 vs. A-10 (Rhode Island, St. Joe’s, Temple)
Case Against: Only win over BCS conference team is Seton Hall
Analysis: The Wildcats loss to Louisville hurt, mostly because now people can see that Villanova doesn’t have a good win, or even a win over a team that is as good or better than them. An average Big East season could get them in trouble, especially if they don’t get a marquee win. Shots at UConn and Pittsburgh loom.
Bubble
Notre Dame (11-5; 3-3) RPI 63
Case For: Wins over Georgetown and Texas
Case Against: RPI, league record
Analysis: For some unknown reason, the Irish remain in the Top 20 despite making a solid case that they suck. Noncompetitive losses at Louisville and at Syracuse aren’t what elite teams do. The RPI is very low, but the two marquee wins and an undeserved reputation may keep them in the tournament. One question – what happens if they finish 9th or 10th in the Big East – are they really a tournament team? We say no.
Treading Water
Providence (13-6; 3-2) RPI 99; Cincinnati (11-6; 2-3) RPI 66
Big Twelve__________________________________________________________
Now that conference play has begun, Texas A&M slips to the bubble amid the good work by teams ahead of them.
Locks
Oklahoma, Texas
Near Locks
Oklahoma State (12-4; 1-1) RPI 19
Case For: RPI, wins over Rhode Island and Texas A&M
Case Against: Lopsided losses to good teams
Analysis: The Cowboys are in great position after the A&M win. The RPI is great, and the wins are starting to look better, along with no bad losses. As long as the keep up the good work and finish at least 10-8, they will be fine.
Kansas (13-4; 2-0) RPI 39
Case For: Wins over Washington, Tennessee, Siena
Case Against: They lost to UMass. Hammered by Arizona
Analysis: The Jayhawks are looking good, and are a near lock at this point. Wins over fellow bubblers Missouri and Kansas State establish their spot in the packing order.
Bubble
Texas A&M (14-3; 1-2) RPI 44
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, at LSU, Baylor
Case Against: Conference record
Analysis: The Aggies are still in OK position, but need to stay afloat in the conference to be safe. They probably have enough to overcome a mediocre conference record, but need to raise the RPI a bit. There is nothing bad in the profile, but not much good either.
Missouri (14-3; 2-1) RPI 41
Case For: Overall record: Win vs. California
Case Against: Losses at Xavier, vs. Illinois are excusable
Analysis: Mizzou breezed through their soft schedule and remain in the mix. The win over Cal, while great, is pretty much all they have going for them right now.
Nebraska (12-4; 2-1) RPI 76
Case For: Big 12 performance
Case Against: Losses to UMBC, Oregon State
Analysis: The Huskers arrive on the outskirts of the bubble after blowing out Kansas State. They need a big time Big 12 performance to get a look, and they are working towards that already.
Treading Water
None
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Ohio State, Illinois and Purdue are trending up, while Michigan and Minnesota slip a bit. Seven bids are still probable, as long as someone doesn’t trip up too much.
Locks
Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State
Near Locks
Wisconsin (11-5; 3-2) RPI 17
Case For: Wins at Virginia Tech and at Michigan
Case Against: Losses are all against Top-25 opponents
Analysis: The RPI is still great, but the Badgers would be well served to win some more conference games and not leave anything up to chance. Three of the next four are on the road, which could send them either up or down the pecking order.
Illinois (15-3; 3-2) RPI 23
Case For: Wins at Vanderbilt, at Missouri at Purdue
Case Against: Losses aren’t bad, so not much argument against them here
Analysis: The Illini look to be in good shape. A split with the Michigan schools leaves them in the same position as before. The upcoming schedule may very well decide their fate.
Michigan (12-5; 3-3) RPI 46
Case For: Wins over Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Case Against: Overall record, Big Ten record
Analysis: The Wolverines find themselves on the bubble after two straight league losses. Their marquee wins are still powerful, but they shouldn’t risk a below-average conference season.
Purdue (14-4; 3-2) RPI 53
Case For: Wins over Davidson, BC, Wisconsin
Case Against: RPI, Loss at Penn State
Analysis: The Boilermakers are on the right side of .500 and still in good shape. The RPI should get a boost as long as they keep winning. They have decent wins, but need to at least go .500 in conference play to get in the Big Dance.
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Penn State (14-5; 3-3) RPI 86
Conference USA_________________________________
Only Memphis has a case for the tournament right now. Several teams are lurking, but none seem to be a real bubble contender at this point. Tulsa’s near miss against Memphis hurts them badly – they needed to win to make a move.
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
UAB (10-7; 1-2) RPI 47; UTEP (11-6; 2-1) RPI 80; Houston (11-4; 2-1) RPI 98; Tulsa (11-6; 2-1) RPI 73
Missouri Valley__________________________________________
The MVC is still a mess, but fewer teams are solidly in the mix. Six teams are in the running for the regular season title, but not everyone has a profile worthy of a bid. The teams treading water won’t get a good look without a standout conference performance.
Locks
None
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Illinois State (16-2; 5-2) RPI 49
Case For: Convincing Wins vs. Creighton, Evansville
Case Against: Easy schedule, loss to terrible Indiana State team
Analysis: The Redbirds have righted the ship and have the best at-large claim in the MVC (although that doesn’t mean too much). A solid first or second place finish could do the trick, but it’s likely they have to get to 14-4 in conference to be safe.
Creighton (14-5; 4-3) RPI 75
Case For: Win over Dayton
Case Against: RPI, conference record
Analysis: The losses are starting to pile up for the Bluejays, and they are in serious danger of falling off the bubble. The Dayton win puts them above the rest of the conference mediocrity. They need to run off some MVC wins to get back on track.
Treading Water
Bradley (10-7; 5-2) RPI 71; Drake (12-6; 4-3) RPI 107; Evansville (10-5; 4-3) RPI 59;
Northern Iowa (11-6; 6-1) RPI 90
Mountain West__________________________________________
Three teams (BYU, UNLV and Utah) are looking good, while one (San Diego State) is searching for a signature win to join the conversation. Outside of that, someone has to make a major conference move.
Locks
None
Near Locks
BYU (13-3; 2-1) RPI 33
Case For: Wins over Utah State, Boise State, RPI
Case Against: No signature wins
Analysis: The Cougars lost badly at New Mexico, and slip a bit into near-dangerous territory. Everyone knows they are good, but all they have on their side are wins against pretty good teams. In other words, if they keep losing – what keeps them in the tournament?
Bubble
UNLV (14-4; 2-2) RPI 56
Case For: Wins at UTEP, vs. Arizona, at Louisville
Case Against: Losses to California, Cincinnati, San Diego State
Analysis: UNLV is still looking strong, but they lost some margin for error by losing two conference games. They should have enough quality wins to offset a few missteps in conference play, but they better be careful.
Utah (12-5; 3-1) RPI 20
Case For: Wins over Gonzaga, Mississippi, LSU
Case Against: Awful loss to Idaho State
Analysis: The Utes got two conference wins this week and the RPI is still great. They survived a very tough schedule, which helps – but so does winning league games. They still have a little work to do – and lets just say Utah will remain big Gonzaga fans for the rest of the year.
San Diego State (10-4; 2-1) RPI 54
Case For: Conference play, win over UNLV, no bad losses
Case Against: Tough upcoming schedule
Analysis: The Aztecs lost at Wyoming in the sort of game bubble teams absolutely have to win. 12-4 in the MWC will probably do the trick, but they probably would also need a win over BYU or UNLV if that doesn’t happen.
Treading Water
TCU (11-6; 3-1) RPI 70; New Mexico (11-7; 2-1) RPI 91
SEC____________________________________________________
Florida is looking strong enough to be locked up. Kentucky and LSU are also on the rise. Arkansas, despite beating Texas and Oklahoma, slip out of the discussion for starting 0-3 in conference.
Locks
Florida
Near Locks
Tennessee (11-5; 2-1) RPI 29
Case For: RPI, wins over Georgetown and Marquette
Case Against: Five “good losses”
Analysis: The Vols were shell-shocked by Jodie Meeks and Kentucky in Knoxville, but still appear to be OK. The losses aren’t bad, and the two marquee wins look as good as ever.
Kentucky (14-4; 3-0) RPI 57
Case For: Wins vs. West Virginia, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee
Case Against: Loss to VMI and RPI are shaky
Analysis: The Wildcats got a huge win at Tennessee to boost their profile significantly. There is a lot of SEC basketball today, but the win signaled that the Cats are contenders for the regular season divisional title. That is pretty much all they would need to book their ticket to the dance.
Bubble
South Carolina (12-4; 1-2) RPI 87
Case For: Overall record, win at Baylor
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: The Gamecocks lost two understandable road games at Tennessee and LSU, and remain alive only because the next three are at home. They are still far from having a good profile, although it could improve quickly.
LSU (14-3; 2-1) RPI 86
Case For: Overall and conference record; two blowout SEC wins
Case Against: RPI stinks
Analysis: The Tigers are trending way up after two huge wins, capped by a great 32-point road win over fellow bubble Ole Miss. The RPI is still low, but a home shot vs. Xavier could send it up significantly.
Mississippi State (12-5; 3-0) RPI 92
Case For: 3-0 SEC; Win at Arkansas
Case Against: RPI is low, loss to bad Charlotte team
Analysis: The Bulldogs have come to play in SEC games, which coincidentally is the only thing that can help them. Wins over Western Kentucky and Houston aren’t going to cut it if they don’t have a great SEC season. So far, so good in that regard.
Treading Water
Mississippi (10-7; 1-2) RPI 64; Vanderbilt (12-5; 1-2) RPI 101; Arkansas (12-4; 0-3) RPI 58
Pac-10__________________________________________________
UCLA continues its quest to become the first team to receive a top three NCAA seed without one quality win. TourneyBubble is cheering for the Bruins in that regard (or is it cheering against?). Stanford is back in the mix.
Locks
Arizona State, UCLA, California
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Washington (13-4; 4-1) RPI 38
Case For: Win over Oklahoma State, Cleveland State, Stanford, RPI
Case Against: Loss to Portland
Analysis: The Huskies need a couple of good Pac 10 wins, but they are currently in the discussion. The loss to Portland hurts, and other than the Oklahoma State win, there isn’t a lot of heft.
Stanford (12-3; 2-3) RPI 48
Case For: Win over Cal, Overall record
Case Against: They need at least a .500 Pac 10 record
Analysis: The Cardinal are helped enormously by the win over Cal, but they still have plenty of work to do. They just need to keep winning, and a home sweep of the Oregon schools is essential.
USC (12-5; 3-2) RPI 65
Case For: Nice Arizona sweep
Case Against: RPI, loss at Oregon State
Analysis: The Arizona State win was huge, and the RPI bump nets the Trojans another look. The Oregon State loss is bad, but if they stay over .500 in league play, who knows?
Treading Water
Arizona (11-7; 2-4) RPI 73; Washington State (11-6; 3-2) RPI 96
West Coast_________________________________________________
All is quiet in the WCC.
Locks
Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
None
Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here. Past history shows that teams below that threshold wont get a decent look, fair or not.
Locks
Butler, Davidson
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Siena (14-5; 8-0 MAAC) RPI 28
Case For: Wins over Boise State and Buffalo; RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities haunt them
Analysis: The Saints have a good RPI, and they are 8-0 in an underrated MAAC. Their computer numbers warrant them a look. They need to continue the great MAAC work, and a Bracket Busters win could seal the deal. They are looking fairly good now, and should get an honest look.
Utah State (16-1; 5-0 WAC) RPI 45
Case For: Win over Utah. Only loss was at BYU
Case Against: Must avoid bad losses
Analysis: The Aggies are on a roll and probably have the best bubble case of the “Others”. The loss at BYU would happen to almost anybody. The RPI is decent enough, and a strong WAC showing will help.
George Mason (14-3; 7-0 CAA) RPI 47
Case For: Best team in the CAA
Case Against: Losses to Hampton and Liberty
Analysis: The Patriots have continued to win CAA games, and winning the conference should hold some clout. The RPI isn’t too bad, and wins in tough roadies at VCU and Northeastern will help immensely. After some initial trouble, the Patriots have played themselves into the bubble discussion.
VCU (13-5; 5-1 CAA) RPI 63
Case For: Favorable CAA schedule
Case Against: No quality wins, losses vs. ECU and at Delaware
Analysis: The Rams remain on the outskirts on the bubble, with huge home games against Mason and Northeastern looming on the horizon. A regular season CAA title is within reach, and is also necessary for an at-large look.
Treading Water
Boise State (11-5; 3-2 WAC) RPI 55; Cleveland State (10-7; 4-4 Horizon) RPI 72; Northeastern (11-6; 6-1 CAA) RPI 77; Miami (OH) (9-6; 2-1 MAC) RPI 37; Niagara (14-5; 5-2 MAAC) RPI 95; Fairfield (12-7; 5-3 MAAC) RPI 78; Wisconsin Green Bay (13-4; 6-1 Horizon) RPI 79; American (11-6; 3-0 Patriot) RPI 93; Buffalo (10-5; 2-1) RPI 84
