We here at Tourney Bubble hold conference records in high esteem.  Conference records are good measures of a team’s true nature, since the familiarity of the teams within the conference means that execution is at a premium.  On top of that, conference games happen closer to the tournament than those neutral court walkthroughs that dominate nonconference play.  Nonconference work is great, but we’re not going to cling to 5-9 A-10 teams for three weeks too long (ahem – ESPN Bubble Watch’s love affair with Dayton last year).

To that end, we are officially resting our case with Notre Dame.  They’re just not that good, and I’m tired of saying it.  I will refer all objections to their profile – you can get your answers there.  After yet another week of being ranked and included in all major bracket projections, I think the entire college basketball world should be tested for crazy pills.

ACC__________________________________________________________
With Virginia Tech’s rise, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the ACC gets eight bids. If teams like Florida State, Miami, BC and Virginia Tech get to 8-8 in the conference, they will all have a fairly strong case for inclusion.  Maryland is on life support only because of their Michigan State win.
Locks  
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Near Locks
Florida State (16-4; 3-2) RPI: 17
Case For: Overall record; Wins at Florida, vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Northwestern
Analysis: The Seminoles are putting together a good resume, and are farther on the good side of the bubble than most experts would lead you to believe.  With good nonconference wins, a winning ACC mark and great computer numbers, what else do the ESPN clowns want?  Maybe a couple wins over the Big 4 will seal the imaginary deal.
Virginia Tech (14-5, 4-1) RPI 32
Case For: ACC record, wins at Wake Forest and at Miami
Case Against: No good nonconference wins
Analysis: A spectacular week has left the Hokies in great shape.  4-1 in the league after trips to Duke, Wake and Miami is as good as they could have hoped for.  The real challenge is getting to nine ACC wins, as they play Clemson twice and Duke and Carolina coming to Blacksburg late in the season.  The emphasis is piling up wins before that stretch, and they are doing that.  The game vs. Clemson this week is huge.
Bubble
Boston College (15-6; 3-3) RPI 56
Case For: win at North Carolina, vs. Providence
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis, loss vs. Harvard
Analysis:  The Eagles won two straight ACC games to halt what could have been a devastating losing streak.  The UNC win remains a great positive, but the blowout loss to Harvard is just as bad on the negative side.  They avoid the Big 4 in the next three games, but should aim to win at least two of them before the at Wake, vs. Clemson, vs. Duke, at Miami stretch that will make or break their season.
Miami (13-5; 3-3 RPI 38
Case For: Wins at Kentucky, at BC
Case Against: Losses to fellow bubblers Ohio State and Virginia Tech
Analysis: The Canes remain on the good side of the bubble, but their incredible home luck ran out against Virginia Tech.  They had been outplayed at home previously by both Maryland and Florida State, but stormed back to win both.  The Kentucky win is looking very good, but they need at least an 8-8 ACC season to go dancing.
Treading Water
Maryland (13-6; 2-3) RPI 67

Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
St. Josephs and Temple jump into the discussion with strong league showings, although the Hawks having nothing else helpful on the resume.  For now, they remain on the outside looking in.  
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
Dayton (18-2; 4-1) RPI 40
Case For: Overall record; win at Marquette, vs. George Mason
Case Against: Loss at UMass
Analysis:  The Flyers have continued to win games, and thus have inched closer to a bid.  The record, RPI and win at Marquette are all good, but they have to at least compete for the A-10 title to secure a bid.  They still have two shots against Xavier to sew things up.
Bubble
Temple (11-7; 3-1) RPI 49
Case For: win vs. Tennessee, at Penn State, A-10 record
Case Against: Too many losses
Analysis: The Owls are barely on the radar due to their A-10 record and a couple of good wins.  They suffer from too many losses, however “good” the losses may be.  The upcoming A-10 stretch will decide their bubble fate.
Treading Water
St. Joseph’s (11-7; 4-0) RPI 73; Rhode Island (13-7; 2-3) RPI 61

Big East_________________________________________________
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia
Near Locks
Georgetown (12-6; 3-4) RPI 13
Case For: RPI, win at UConn, vs. Syracuse
Case Against: Big East record, loss at Seton Hall
Analysis:  A bad loss to Seton Hall lands the Hoyas on the bubble, but they are virtually assured a bid if they stay afloat in the Big East.  The wins are there to be had,
Villanova (15-4; 3-3) RPI 26
Case For: 3-0 vs. A-10 (Rhode Island, St. Joe’s, Temple)
Case Against: No good wins
Analysis:  The Wildcats continue to skate ambiguously through the season, and doing nothing of note.  Villanova doesn’t have a win over a team that is as good or better than them.  An average Big East season could get them in trouble, especially if they don’t get a marquee win.  
Bubble
Notre Dame (11-7; 3-5) RPI 75
Case For: Wins over Georgetown and Texas
Case Against: RPI, league record
Analysis:  The Irish are only here because I am being nice.  Right now, they simply aren’t a tournament team.  The RPI is very low, but the two marquee wins and an undeserved reputation may keep them in the tournament.   
Providence (13-6; 5-2) RPI 65
Case For: Big East record
Case Against: No good wins
Analysis: The Friars have feasted on the nether regions of the Big East, but the honeymoon is all but over with a tough stretch coming up.  They need to knock off some of the league’s upper division to boost their chances.
Treading Water
Cincinnati (12-7; 3-4) RPI 58

Big Twelve_________________________________________________________
Baylor and Kansas jump into lock territory.  Missouri is inching closer to that level.  Texas A&M is almost cooked.
Locks
Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Baylor
Near Locks
Missouri (16-3; 4-1) RPI 30
Case For:  Overall record: Win vs. California
Case Against:  Losses at Xavier, vs. Illinois are excusable
Analysis:  Mizzou is pretty much in, but could use a marquee win over the top 3 to make sure.  There isn’t much reason to leave them out at this point.
Bubble
Oklahoma State (13-5; 2-2) RPI 22
Case For: RPI
Case Against: Lopsided losses to good teams
Analysis:  The Cowboys’ computer numbers don’t really match their profile.  What’s their best win – Siena?  Rhode Island?  Texas A&M?  Those are good, but it doesn’t exactly scream “tournament team”.  They badly need a win over Oklahoma, Kansas or Texas.
Treading Water
Texas A&M (14-5; 1-4) RPI 50; Nebraska (12-6; 2-3) RPI 88

Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State are in serious trouble.  What once seemed like a power conference is now currently a collection of pretty good teams.
Locks
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Near Locks
Minnesota (16-3; 5-3) RPI 36
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Ohio State
Case Against: RPI is a little low
Analysis: A mini-skid ended at Indiana but the Gophers are in a little bit of hot water.  A stretch vs. Illinois, at Ohio State and at Michigan State is crucial.  They would be in if the
Bubble
Ohio State (13-5; 3-4) RPI 31
Case For: wins at Miami, vs. Notre Dame, vs. Butler, at Michigan
Case Against: Lost 5 of last 9, Big Ten record
Analysis: The Buckeyes might slip in to the tournament based on their good wins (and they are pretty impressive), but the conference record needs to be at or above .500.  The 9-0 start seems like ages ago, and the Buckeyes have thudded back to Earth.
Wisconsin (11-7; 3-4) RPI 22
Case For: Wins at Virginia Tech and at Michigan
Case Against:  Too many losses
Analysis:  Four straight losses lands the Badgers on the outskirts of the bubble.  Although the computer numbers are solid, there isn’t enough in the nonconference profile to overcome a below-.500 Big Ten record.  Four of the next six are at home, and they have to start winning some conference games.
Michigan (12-5; 4-4) RPI 44
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Case Against: Big Ten record
Analysis: Michigan got a must win at home against Northwestern, but is in a very precarious position.  They are likely to lose three of the next five – and where do they fit in if that happens?  Who knows, maybe it will help their computer numbers.  They really need to pick it up in the coming weeks.
Penn State (16-5; 5-3) RPI 71
Case For: Wins vs. Michigan, vs. Purdue
Case Against: That’s about it
Analysis: The Big Ten record continues to keep the Nittany Lions in the discussion.  Three of the next four are on the road, so its likely they will slip a bit.  A road upset would do wonders and possibly vault them past a couple of teams that are currently running in place.
Treading Water
Northwestern (10-7; 2-5) RPI 41
Conference USA_________________________________
Shorthanded UAB is fighting valiantly through their personnel issues, but haven’t done enough to land on the bubble.  Houston was one face stomp away from a look, but their epic meltdown at Arizona keeps them off the list.
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
UAB (13-7; 3-2) RPI 45; Houston (12-5; 3-1) RPI 93; Tulsa (12-7; 3-2) RPI 74

Missouri Valley__________________________________________
Many teams are still in the hunt, but Northern Iowa leads the pack.  The downside is that the Panthers don’t have a good at-large resume.  The regular season champ will get a look, but whoever survives this madness wont be a very good candidate.  A one-bid MVC is almost unthinkable, but it definitely could happen this year.
Locks
None
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Illinois State (17-3; 6-3) RPI 59
Case For: Convincing Wins vs. Creighton, Evansville
Case Against: Easy schedule, loss to terrible Indiana State team
Analysis:  The luster is officially off the Redbirds 14-0 start.  The conference record is passable, but the nonconference slate has nothing but wins against bad teams (and we mean bad – there isn’t one Top 100 win in the bunch.  A winning streak could get them back in the mix, but for now they are on the outside looking in.
Northern Iowa (13-6; 8-1) RPI 74
Case For: MVC leaders
Case Against: Nothing else to crow about
Analysis: The Panthers are the proverbial turd floating to the MVC surface, and are in the discussion based on survival alone.  They need the MVC regular season title (probably going away), coupled with a sweep of Illinois State.  If they keep winning, who knows.
Treading Water
Creighton (15-6; 5-4) RPI 67; Bradley (11-8; 6-3) RPI 88; Drake (13-7; 5-4) RPI 100


Mountain West__________________________________________
Locks
None
Near Locks
None
Bubble
BYU (14-4; 3-2) RPI 35
Case For: Wins over Utah State, Boise State, RPI
Case Against: Losses piling up
Analysis: The Cougars are definitely bubbling after stumbling out of the MWC gate.  They need to start winning soon, as the schedule gets tougher as the season goes along.
UNLV (16-4; 4-2) RPI 46
Case For: vs. Arizona, at Louisville, at BYU, vs. Utah
Case Against:  Losses to California, Cincinnati, San Diego State
Analysis:  UNLV bolstered their profile considerably with the win at BYU.  In fact, it probably puts them on the good side of the bubble.  Couple with the win at Louisville, and it’s hard to argue that the Rebs aren’t the top dogs in the MWC, which carries a lot of weight.
Utah (12-6; 3-2) RPI 25
Case For: Wins over Gonzaga, Mississippi, LSU
Case Against: Awful loss to Idaho State
Analysis:  The Utes fall off a bit as the losses start to pile up.  The computer numbers are still great, and they have some good nonconference wins, but playing third fiddle in the MWC can’t help.
San Diego State (11-5; 3-2) RPI 56
Case For: win over Utah, no bad losses
Case Against: Tough upcoming schedule
Analysis: The Aztecs are on the periphery of the bubble as they have slipped in tough MWC play.  They need to get a couple more wins over the Big Three to get another good look.
Treading Water
TCU (12-7; 4-2) RPI 89; New Mexico (12-8; 3-2) RPI 84

SEC____________________________________________________
What happened to Arkansas?  Kentucky is locked up as the best of a very bad bunch.  This conference is not very good right now.
Locks
Florida, Kentucky
Near Locks
Tennessee (12-6; 3-1) RPI 21
Case For: RPI, wins over Georgetown and Marquette
Case Against:  Six “good losses”
Analysis:  The Vols have wins over Georgetown and Marquette to show for their murderous schedule.  They have lost four of seven, but their SEC brethren haven’t passed them by at all.  They are probably fine, and the SEC slate is a welcome relief.
Bubble
South Carolina (14-4; 3-2) RPI 61
Case For: win at Baylor, vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: South Carolina’s amazing last second win over Florida keeps them in the bubble mix.  The RPI needs some work.  Big opportunities await at Florida and at Kentucky.
LSU (15-4; 3-1) RPI 78
Case For: Overall and conference record
Case Against: RPI stinks
Analysis:  The Tigers lost to Xavier and are out of nonconference chances.  They need the RPI to creep up, and likely an 11-5 conference record.
Mississippi State (13-6; 4-1) RPI 83
Case For: Win vs. Western Kentucky
Case Against: Loss to Charlotte, they probably suck
Analysis:  Everyone who is 4-1 in a major conference gets a look.  See, we looked.  They just need to keep winning SEC games.
Treading Water
Auburn (11-7; 2-3) RPI 81

Pac-10__________________________________________________
Washington leads the Pac-10 and joins the land of the locks.  Stanford and Arizona have nearly fallen off the radar. Cal is in serious danger of unlocking themselves.
Locks
Arizona State, UCLA, California, Washington
Near Locks
None
Bubble
USC (13-6; 4-3) RPI 54
Case For: Win over Arizona State
Case Against: Losses to Seton Hall, Oregon State
Analysis:  The Trojans have battled back onto the bubble and could vault themselves onto the good side of the bubble by winning their next two at home (vs. Stanford and vs. Cal).  Their next nine games come against the stiffest competition the Pac-10 has to offer, and survival (10-8 league record) is essential.
Stanford (13-4; 3-4) RPI 64
Case For: Win over Cal
Case Against: Loss to Oregon State
Analysis:  The Cardinal seem miles away from the form that saw them start 10-0.  The loss to Oregon State was bad, and it doesn’t help to have road tilts against USC and UCLA on the horizon.  The ice is cracking for these guys.
Treading Water
Arizona (12-8; 2-5) RPI 68
 
West Coast_________________________________________________
Have they been playing games the past two weeks?  I didn’t notice.  Round 1 of Gonzaga-St. Mary’s is this week.
Locks
Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
None

Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here.  Past history shows that teams below that threshold won’t get a decent look, fair or not.  Sorry George Mason, slipping to third in the CAA isn’t going to cut it for now.
Locks
Butler, Davidson
Near Locks
Utah State (18-1; 7-0 WAC) RPI 45
Case For: Win over Utah.  Only loss was at BYU
Case Against: Low-ish RPI
Analysis:  The Aggies continue to roll through the WAC, and are looking good for a bid.  Teams with this many wins – and that are this good – tend to get the benefit of the doubt if they need an at-large.  At risk of jinxing them, they could be an impressive 23-1 heading into the return match with Boise State.
Bubble
Siena (16-5; 10-0 MAAC) RPI 20
Case For: Wins over Boise State, Buffalo at St. Joseph’s; RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities may haunt them
Analysis:  The Saints have a great RPI for a mid major and their once-middling nonconference wins are looking good now.  They are taking care of business in the MAAC, currently the 12th strongest conference.  They survived Iona on Monday, and the schedule eases up a bit down the home stretch.  
Northeastern (13-6; 8-1 CAA) RPI 60
Case For: CAA co-leaders, win over Providence
Case Against: Weak nonconference performance otherwise
Analysis:  Contingent on beating VCU, but they still may be bubbling if they have a good showing.  They need the regular season CAA crown, with at least a 15-3 conference record, to get a look.
VCU (15-5; 8-1 CAA) RPI 55
Case For:  Favorable CAA schedule
Case Against: No quality wins, losses vs. ECU and at Delaware
Analysis:  The Rams won Round 1 of the CAA leader round robin and host Northeastern Tuesday night in Richmond.  The RPI is improving, and a regular season CAA title is within reach.
Buffalo (12-5; 4-1 MAC) RPI 66
Case For: MAC leaders, win at Temple
Case Against: Average overall profile
Analysis: They need to win the MAC, and their Bracket Busters game to truly get in the mix, but their stock is certainly on the rise after the win at Miami (OH).
Treading Water
Boise State (13-5; 5-2 WAC) RPI 63; George Mason (14-5; 7-2 CAA) RPI 52; Miami (OH) (10-7; 3-2 MAX) RPI 43; Niagara (15-6; 6-3 MAAC) RPI 82; Wisconsin Green Bay (14-5; 7-2 Horizon) RPI 79; Western Kentucky (12-7; 7-2 Sun Belt) RPI 76; Stephen F. Austin (8-5; 4-1 Southland) RPI 70