Around this time each year, strength of schedule enters the bubble
vocabulary, mostly as an argument to include overrated and
underperforming teams in tournament projections. Personally, I
think SOS is too often used as a crutch for losing. In the
immortal words of Jim Mora - I don't care who you play.
SOS should be used as a sixth or seventh tiebreaker when two teams are
entirely too similar to compare in another way - that's it. Win
some games or get out of the way. Updated through Monday.
ACC__________________________________________________________
The
Big 4 remain strong, while the rest of the league is in a mad scramble
to get eight – and in some cases nine – league wins. Nine gets
you a dance ticket, while eight lands you on the bubble. 7-9
isn’t going to cut it this year.
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Florida State (16-5; 3-3) RPI: 25
Case For: Overall record; Wins at Florida, vs. California
Case Against: Loss at Northwestern
Analysis: The Seminoles are still probably OK, but they need to make
sure they aren’t buried too far down in the ACC standings. They
have probably done enough, but don’t want to slip below .500 in league
play. A win over the Big 4 might be necessary.
Boston College (17-6; 5-3) RPI 51
Case For: ACC record, win at North Carolina, vs. Providence
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis, loss vs. Harvard
Analysis: The Eagles won a last second thriller over Virginia
Tech and continue to roll after a rough stretch. The positives
outweigh the negatives, but they need to keep winning where they
can. Surviving the next five intact is imperative.
Virginia Tech (14-7; 4-3) RPI 41
Case For: Wins at Wake Forest and vs. BC
Case Against: No good nonconference wins
Analysis: The Hokies dropped two heartbreakers to Clemson and BC, and
fall onto the bubble as a result. They have a week off before two
manageable home games. Getting to 6-3 in the ACC is important
considering their season ending schedule. They need ACC wins, but
are in decent shape right now considering the weakness of the bubble.
Miami (13-7; 3-5) RPI 48
Case For: Wins at Kentucky, at BC, vs. Florida St.
Case Against: ACC record, RPI
Analysis: The Canes are in deep trouble after three straight
losses. With the next three at Wake and vs. Duke and vs. UNC,
their season is at a crucial point. They need at least an 8-8 ACC
season to go dancing, and that is looking increasingly difficult.
Treading Water
Maryland (14-7; 3-4) RPI 79
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
Dayton (18-2; 4-1) RPI 40
Case For: Overall record; win at Marquette, vs. George Mason
Case Against: Loss at UMass
Analysis: The Flyers have continued to win games, and thus have
inched closer to a bid. The record, RPI and win at Marquette are
all good, but they have to at least compete for the A-10 title to
secure a bid. They still have two shots against Xavier to sew
things up.
Bubble
Temple (12-8; 4-2) RPI 49
Case For: win vs. Tennessee, at Penn State
Case Against: Too many losses
Analysis: The Owls are barely on the radar due to their A-10 record and
a couple of good wins. They suffer from too many losses, however
“good” the losses may be. The upcoming A-10 stretch will decided
their bubble fate.
St. Joseph’s (12-7; 5-0) RPI 67
Case For: Undefeated in A10
Case Against: That’s it
Analysis: The Hawks are still undefeated in the A10, and a league
title would be a huge positive. They need it, since their
nonconference performance was below average. They have shots at
Dayton and vs. Xavier, where a win would certainly boost the profile.
Treading Water
Rhode Island (15-7; 4-3) RPI 64
Big East_________________________________________________
The talk of ten bids for this conference has died down, and now league
play has knocked several teams down to the bubble (or worse).
With such unbalanced schedules, league records can be deceiving.
When the dust has settled, 9-9 in conference may be a necessity.
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova
Near Locks
Syracuse (16-5; 5-4) RPI 24
Case For: RPI, wins vs. Kansas, Florida, at Memphis
Case Against: Lost four of five, loss to Cleveland State
Analysis: Syracuse has hit a dry spell, but their nonconference
work was very good. Unfortunately, their best league win is at
home against Notre Dame. The next five are against quality
opponents, and will go a long way towards determining their true place
in the discussion.
West Virginia (15-6; 4-4) RPI 16
Case For: RPI, wins at Georgetown, at Ohio State
Case Against: A number of good, but not great wins
Analysis: The Mountaineers remain in great shape due to their
computer numbers, but trips to Syracuse and Pitt are on the
horizon. They need to break even in the Big East to feel
comfortable, but the losses are piling up.
Bubble
Providence (14-7; 6-3) RPI 60
Case For: Big East record, win over Syracuse
Case Against: No other good wins
Analysis: The Friars got a nice win over Syracuse to boost their
profile. They also got s_ithammered by UConn to provide some nice
balance. There isn’t much else outside of the league record to go on,
but at this point fifth place in the Big East is looking pretty good.
Georgetown (12-8; 3-6) RPI 17
Case For: RPI, win at UConn, vs. Syracuse
Case Against: Big East record sucks, Lost five straight
Analysis: The Hoyas are in free fall mode, dropping five
straight. At 3-6 in the conference, they are running out of
time. The best strength of schedule in the world won’t help if
they keep losing. They are almost certainly on the outside
looking in at this point.
Treading Water
Cincinnati (13-7; 4-4) RPI 58; Notre Dame (11-8; 3-6) RPI 75
Big Twelve_________________________________________________________
Teams like Texas A&M and Kansas State have fought their way on to
the bubble from the depths of the league. We are still looking
for this league to sort itself out a bit. Even Kansas and Texas
have tenuous holds on their tourney spots.
Locks
Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas
Near Locks
Missouri (17-4; 5-2) RPI 29
Case For: Overall record, Wins vs. California, vs. USC
Case Against: Losses at Xavier, vs. Illinois are excusable
Analysis: Mizzou is pretty much in, even with the surprising loss
to K State. There isn’t much reason to leave them out at this
point. They have a good nonconference/conference mix.
Bubble
Baylor (14-6; 3-4) RPI 43
Case For: Wins at Arizona State, vs. Providence
Case Against: Big 12 record, losing streak
Analysis: The Bears have found bubble trouble by losing three
straight. A shot at Kansas would right the ship, but you don’t
want to be below .500 at this point in the season. They do have
three chances in the next week in College Station to beat some fellow
bubblers.
Texas A&M (16-5; 3-4) RPI 36
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, vs. LSU, RPI
Case Against: Loss at Tulsa, Big 12 record
Analysis: The Aggies rolled through nonconference play with an
impressive record, but Big 12 play has been rocky. They have
rebounded a bit from the 1-4 league start to get back in the mix. The
next four are brutal, and they need a split and possibly an upset to
get back on the good side of the bubble.
Oklahoma State (13-7; 2-4) RPI 26
Case For: RPI
Case Against: Conference record, Lopsided losses to good teams
Analysis: The Cowboys’ computer numbers don’t really match their
profile. What’s their best win – Siena? Rhode Island?
Texas A&M? Those are good, but it doesn’t exactly scream
“tournament team”. They badly need a win over Oklahoma, Kansas or
Texas.
Kansas State (13-7; 3-4) RPI 78
Case For: Wins vs. Missouri, at Texas
Case Against: Everything else
Analysis: Two great wins in the past week launches K-State into
the mix, but they are still definitely on the periphery. They
have a manageable slate coming up, so we suspect we have not heard the
last from this team.
Treading Water
Nebraska (13-7; 3-4) RPI 81
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Wisconsin has fallen off the face of the earth. What once seemed
like a power conference is now currently a collection of pretty good
teams.
Locks
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Ohio State (15-5; 5-4) RPI 33
Case For: Win vs. Butler, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Destroyed at home vs. West Virginia, Big Ten record
Analysis: The Buckeyes swept Michigan to get back on the good
side of the bubble. The RPI is still pretty good, but they need
to win one of the next two (vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota) to solidify
their spot.
Penn State (17-5; 6-3) RPI 66
Case For: League record, wins vs. Purdue, at Michigan State
Case Against: Still no bad losses, low RPI
Analysis: The win at Michigan State finally turned some heads for
the Nittany Lions, but TourneyBubble wasn’t all that surprised.
This is a solid team that is compiling a decent resume. Their
resume is solid, considering their good wins and no bad losses, which
makes the low RPI a mystery.
Michigan (13-8; 4-6) RPI 44
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Case Against: Overall record, conference record
Analysis: The Wolverines are in deep trouble with a poor 4-6
league mark. They get three good chances at home to get back on
track (vs. Penn St., Michigan State and Minnesota) sandwiched around a
suicide trip to UConn.
Northwestern (12-7; 4-5) RPI 56
Case For: Wins vs. Minnesota, at Michigan State, Florida State
Case Against: Big Ten record, Overall record
Analysis: The Wildcats have the signature wins they need to be in
the discussion, but they need to pair that with a .500 or better league
mark to have a chance at their first ever NCAA bid.
Treading Water
Wisconsin (11-9; 3-6) RPI 36
Conference USA_________________________________
Memphis is still the class of the league. Tulsa somehow was near
a bid on the latest Bracketology (I swear, I will quit reading it soon
- but its so tempting). Much like that “Love Lock Down” song by
Kanye West – I just don’t get it.
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Tulsa (14-7; 5-2) RPI 72; UAB (14-8; 4-3) RPI 44;
Missouri Valley__________________________________________
Kyle Whelliston has it pegged – this is the Bizarro Valley. It is
very disappointing to be looking at a one-bid Valley, but unfortunately
nobody outside of Northern Iowa is looking very strong. Bradley
and Evansville are too far down the pecking order of the league to get
a look for now.
Locks
None
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Northern Iowa (15-6; 10-1) RPI 73
Case For: Running away with the Valley
Case Against: A couple bad losses, RPI
Analysis: The Panthers continue to dominate the Valley, and
should get at least a glance if they win the conference going
away. They need to up the RPI significantly, and hopefully
Bracket Busters will help get them some attention.
Illinois State (18-4; 7-4) RPI 59
Case For: Convincing Wins vs. Creighton, Evansville
Case Against: Easy schedule, loss to terrible Indiana State team
Analysis: The Redbirds are three full games behind Northern Iowa,
and probably need to run the table to get back on the good side of the
bubble. The overall record is nice, but the SOS sucks (202nd).
Creighton (17-6; 7-4) RPI 74
Case For: Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, at St. Joe’s
Case Against: Losses to UALR and Wichita State
Analysis: The Blue Jays have the best nonconference scalps of the
bunch, but they are unlikely to catch red hot Northern Iowa in the
league and will suffer as a result. Being third in a middling
league wont get you a ticket to the dance.
Treading Water
None
Mountain West__________________________________________
Utah inches closer to a bid, but only because the MWC leaders should
get into the tournament. They have the best at large case right
now, followed by UNLV. BYU is in hot water, while San Diego State
is still lurking.
Locks
None
Near Locks
Utah (14-6; 5-2) RPI 15
Case For: Wins over Gonzaga, BYU, LSU
Case Against: Awful loss to Idaho State
Analysis: The Utes are tied for the conference lead and have a
great RPI. By virtue of that and the RPI, they should be
in. They need to stay on top of the league (or close to it) and
knock off their competitors at least once to stay on this level.
Bubble
BYU (15-5; 4-3) RPI 34
Case For: Wins over Utah State, RPI
Case Against: Slipping in conference
Analysis: The Cougars are in danger of being buried in the MWC pecking
order. Both Utah and UNLV had better nonconference wins.
Everyone knows they are good, but all they have on their side are wins
against pretty good teams. In other words, if they keep losing –
what keeps them in the tournament over Utah and UNLV?
UNLV (17-4; 5-2) RPI 46
Case For: Wins at BYU, at Louisville, vs. Utah
Case Against: Losses to California, Cincinnati, San Diego State
Analysis: UNLV is looking strong after four straight wins,
including a huge roadie over BYU. They still have enough quality
wins to offset a few missteps in conference play, and sport some decent
nonconference wins.
San Diego State (13-5; 5-2) RPI 52
Case For: Win over Utah, no bad losses, MWC co-leaders
Case Against: Tough upcoming schedule
Analysis: The Aztecs are hanging around the MWC, which helps quite a
bit. Their profile needs some work, but leading such a good
conference counts for something. Treading Water
New Mexico (13-9; 4-3) RPI 83
SEC____________________________________________________
Even though there are now zero locks for the SEC, I think they are
starting to get a bad rap. This reminds me of when the ACC was
getting crapped on at the beginning of football season, and everyone at
ESPN and CNNSI piled on throughout the year, even though the conference
completely redeemed itself over the course of the next few months
(finishing #1 in the computer ratings). Dick Vitale even went so
far to say that no SEC team would finish in the top 8 of the Big East,
which is a ludicrous assertion. Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee
would hand Providence their ass. So there you go, top 8 in the
Big East.
Locks
None
Near Locks
Florida (18-4; 5-2) RPI 34
Case For: SEC record, no bad losses, win over Washington
Case Against: Their conference, RPI
Analysis: The Gators would be in the tournament if it were today,
but they look like a fairly weak SEC top dog at this point. The
RPI is good, but not good enough for a conference leader. They
should be fine, but they have several tough roadies coming up.
Tennessee (13-7; 4-2) RPI 19
Case For: RPI, wins over Florida, Georgetown and Marquette
Case Against: Seven “good losses”
Analysis: The Vols have the pedigree and computer numbers to get
it, but they need to avoid a bad SEC record. The Florida win tied
up some loose ends from their many losses, but they are probably in at
this point. But not by that much.
Bubble
Kentucky (16-6; 5-2) RPI 66
Case For: Wins vs. West Virginia, at Tennessee
Case Against: Loss to VMI and RPI are shaky
Analysis: The Wildcats have a low RPI, but are in good shape in
the SEC. The upcoming is schedule is littered with bubble
battles, so this ranking could change quickly. For now, consider
them barely in. They cant afford many more league losses.
South Carolina (16-4; 5-2) RPI 47
Case For: Overall record, win at Baylor, vs. Florida, at Kentucky
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: A huge win at Kentucky puts the Gamecocks on the good
side of the bubble. A win at Florida would be icing on the cake,
and vault them near lock status. Opportunities to shore up the
resume are coming up, but they need to keep an impressive SEC record to
hold their place.
LSU (17-4; 5-1) RPI 55
Case For: SEC record, win at Tennessee
Case Against: RPI
Analysis: The Tigers are trending up, but the RPI is a little low
for right now. They have a chance to put up a good (11-5 or
better) SEC mark, which is pretty much all that they could hang their
hat on. The next three are manageable.
Treading Water
Mississippi (12-9; 3-4) RPI 65; Mississippi State (13-7; 4-2) RPI 106;
Pac-10__________________________________________________
Locks
UCLA, Washington
Near Locks
Arizona State (16-5; 5-4)
Case For: Wins at UCLA, vs. BYU
Case Against: Conference record, RPI
Analysis: The Sun Devils profile doesn’t match the ranking, but
the committee would give them the benefit of the doubt. If they
win roadies at the Oregon schools, they will be locked up again.
California (16-6; 5-4) RPI 39
Case For: Plenty of good wins; roadies at UNLV, at Utah
Case Against: Losses to Oregon State and Seton Hall
Analysis: The Bears are probably in considering all of their
impressive wins. They need to watch the Pac 10 record, though.
Bubble
USC (15-6; 6-3) RPI 41
Case For: Pac 10 record, wins vs. Arizona St., vs. Cal
Case Against: Need a few more good wins
Analysis: They need to keep up the good conference work.
They would be in if the selection was today. They could run into
trouble if they start dropping Pac 10 games.
Treading Water
Arizona (14-8; 4-5) RPI 64
West Coast_________________________________________________
Patty Mills’s injury throws the conference into chaos, as it no longer
looks like the two bid lock it once was. Portland has emerged a
possible successor to second place.
Locks
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (16-3; 5-2) RPI 50
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, vs. San Diego State
Case Against: No Patty Mills
Analysis: The Mills injury is devastating, and it is uncertain
his supporting cast can keep up the pace they had earlier in the
season. The so-called Injury Waiver the committee sometimes gives
out probably doesn’t exist for mid majors. What a shame.
Treading Water
Portland (14-7; 6-1) RPI 103
Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here.
Past history shows that teams below that threshold wont get a decent
look, fair or not.
Locks
Butler, Davidson
Near Locks
Utah State (20-1; 9-0 WAC) RPI 38
Case For: Win over Utah. Only loss was at BYU
Case Against: Low-ish RPI
Analysis: The Aggies probably have the best bubble case of the
“Others”, as their win over Utah should resonate. The loss at BYU
would happen to almost anybody. The RPI is decent enough, and a
strong WAC showing will help.
Bubble
Siena (17-5; 11-0) RPI 20
Case For: Wins at St Joe’s and vs. Buffalo; RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities haunt them
Analysis: The Saints have a great RPI, and have ripped through a
good MAAC. Trips to Rider and Niagara are all that stand in the
way of a possible 18-0 league mark. If they get that, they should
lock up at least an at-large. They are looking good now, and
should get an honest look.
Northeastern (15-6; 10-1 CAA) RPI 57
Case For: CAA leaders, win at Providence
Case Against: Losses to South Florida, Harvard
Analysis: The Huskies emerged form the CAA Heavyweight Round
Robin to take the clear conference lead. A trip to George Mason
may be all that stands in the way of the regular season crown.
The win at Providence is looking pretty good, but the nonconference
performance had a couple ugly blemishes.
VCU (16-6; 9-2 CAA) RPI 61
Case For: Favorable CAA schedule
Case Against: No quality wins, losses vs. ECU and at Delaware
Analysis: The Rams need Northeastern to stumble to get a look,
and the schedule stacks up favorably for a possible 16-2 finish.
As much as we would like to see Eric Maynor in the tournament again,
they need some help.
Buffalo (14-5; 6-1 MAC)
Case For: MAC leaders, win vs. Temple
Case Against: Only one bad loss, RPI
Analysis: The Bulls are on the bubble by way of leading the MAC,
but the profile needs some help. They don’t have a roadie against
anyone with a winning record, so a gaudy league record (which they
need) is within reach.
Treading Water
George Mason (15-6; 8-3) RPI 60; Niagara (16-6; 7-3 MAAC) RPI 75; Miami
(OH) (12-7; 5-2 MAC) RPI 52; Wisconsin Green Bay (16-5; 9-2 Horizon)
RPI 79; Western Kentucky (13-7; 8-2 Sun Belt) RPI 77; Stephen F. Austin
(10-5; 6-1 Southland) RPI 87; Boise State (14-5; 5-3 WAC) RPI 84;
American (13-7; 5-1 Patriot) RPI 92; North Dakota State (14-5; 10-1
MidCon) RPI 98
