Reality hits the Bubble Tracker, as it is clear that only a handful of mid majors are in the running for an at-large. Billy Packer would be proud.
ACC__________________________________________________________
Eight bids are within reach, but only if Miami can somehow get to 8-8 in conference.
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Boston College (18-7; 6-4) RPI 49
Case For: ACC record, win at North Carolina
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis, loss vs. Harvard, RPI isn’t great
Analysis: The Eagles have won five of six to get to an impressive 6-4 mark in the ACC. Combine that with the UNC win, and they would have to be included if the field was announced today. Nine ACC wins will seal the deal, although the RPI isn’t great.
Virginia Tech (15-7; 5-3) RPI 40
Case For: Wins at Wake Forest and vs. BC
Case Against: No good nonconference wins
Analysis: The Hokies likely saved their at-large lives with the huge comeback win over NC State. Getting to 6-3 in the ACC is important considering their season ending schedule. They need ACC wins, but are in decent shape right now considering the weakness of the bubble.
Miami (14-8; 4-6) RPI 41
Case For: Wins at Kentucky, at BC, vs. Florida St.
Case Against: ACC record, RPI
Analysis: The Canes got a huge win over Wake Forest They probably need at least an 8-8 ACC season to go dancing, even thought there is chatter that the Duke loss won some committee votes. We tend to focus on the “loss” part of “quality loss”.
Maryland (15-8; 4-5) RPI 69
Case For: Win vs. Michigan State
Case Against: RPI, loss to Morgan State
Analysis: The Terps will show up on many bubble lists this week, although undeservedly. Three of their four ACC wins are over Georgia Tech and UVA. They need a home win over VirginiaTech to be taken seriously.
Treading Water
None
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
Dayton (21-3; 7-2) RPI 33
Case For: Overall record; win at Marquette, vs. George Mason
Case Against: Loss at UMass
Analysis: The Flyers lost a bad one to Charlotte ahead of the big matchup with Xavier.. At this point, they would be fairly safely in the field if they needed an at-large. The record, RPI and win at Marquette are all good. They still have two shots against Xavier to sew things up.
Bubble
St. Joseph’s (14-8; 7-1) RPI 67
Case For: A10 record
Case Against: That’s it
Analysis: The Hawks have fallen far behind Dayton’s profile, and the head to head loss stings. They only have one shot at Xavier, and they need to win that amongst a string of other W’s to really get in the picture.
Treading Water
Rhode Island (15-7; 4-3) RPI 63; Temple (13-9; 5-3) RPI 49
Big East_________________________________________________
The Top Five are well entrenched, but outside of Syracuse nobody else is really a guarantee. The unbalanced schedule may make it difficult for the committee to sort through the conference standings. Cincinnati, Georgetown and West Virginia are – at best – right on the cut line for bids.
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova
Near Locks
Syracuse (17-6; 6-5) RPI 23
Case For: RPI, wins vs. Kansas, Florida, at Memphis
Case Against: Lost five of seven, loss to Cleveland State
Analysis: Syracuse has lost five of seven, and there is trouble up ahead. Their upcoming schedule is murderous, but if they survive the league at 9-9 they would probably still be fine considering their SOS and nonconference work.
Bubble
West Virginia (16-8; 5-6) RPI 16
Case For: RPI, wins at Georgetown, at Ohio State
Case Against: A number of good, but not great wins
Analysis: The Mountaineers remain in decent shape due to their computer numbers, but they need to hold serve at home to cement their place on the bubble. The good wins are becoming less impressive. They need to break even in the Big East to feel comfortable, but the losses are piling up.
Georgetown (13-9; 4-7) RPI 38
Case For: RPI, win at UConn, vs. Syracuse
Case Against: Big East record
Analysis: The Hoyas are in deep trouble, and their RPI has slipped badly. Getting swept by fellow bubbler Cincinnati may be fatal. At 4-7 in the conference, they are running out of time. The best strength of schedule in the world won’t help if they keep losing.
Cincinnati (15-8; 6-5) RPI 57
Case For: Win at UNLV, swept Georgetown
Case Against: Swept by Providence.
Analysis: The Bearcats are near the cut line after completing a sweep of Georgetown. They need to stay above .500 in conference to look better amongst the bubble grouping, but at least they have a legitimate stake over the Hoyas. Both conference and non-conference performances are average.
Providence (14-9; 6-5) RPI 69
Case For: Cincinnati sweep, win over Syracuse
Case Against: No other good wins
Analysis: The Cincinnati sweep us good, but only in a head to head scenario. They have essentially been left in the Big East dust, but there are winnable games left on the schedule. What does a Providence 10-8 Big East record look like compared to a West Virginia 9-9 mark? They need to beat Pittsburgh, Villanova or Louisville to get some momentum.
Treading Water
None
Big 12______________________________________________________
The league is upside down. Baylor and Texas A&M have fallen all the way off the bubble with terrible conference marks. They
Locks
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Texas (15-7; 4-4) RPI 44
Case For: Wins vs. Villanova, UCLA
Case Against: RPI is a little low, conference record
Analysis: The Longhorns take a huge tumble from lock to bubble. Two home conference losses will do that. The nonconference heft is good, but the computer numbers aren’t great. They would be in if the selection was today, but they need to avoid a sub-.500 league record.
Oklahoma State (14-8; 3-5) RPI 33
Case For: RPI
Case Against: Conference record, lopsided losses to good teams
Analysis: The Cowboys’ computer numbers don’t really match their profile. What’s their best win – Siena? Rhode Island? Those are good, but it doesn’t exactly scream “tournament team”. They badly need a marquee win, as they are pretty far from a bid right now.
Kansas State (15-7; 5-4) RPI 72
Case For: Wins vs. Missouri, at Texas
Case Against: Everything else
Analysis: The red-hot Wildcats have won five straight league games to become an ESPN darling. Unfortunately for them their resume has been inflated by predictions they will make the field. They are in the neighborhood, but the RPI needs major work, as only two teams from BCS conferences made the field with RPI’s over 50 in 2008. 10-6 does the trick.
Nebraska (15-7; 5-4) RPI 68
Case For: Wins over Missouri, vs. Texas
Case Against: RPI, loss to UMBC
Analysis: The Cornhuskers had a coming-out party in the win over Texas. They may not be on the right side of the bubble, but at least they are in the discussion. The RPI needs wor , but a 9-7 conference mark is entirely possible.
Treading Water
Baylor (14-8; 3-6) RPI 55; Texas A&M (16-7; 3-6) RPI 46
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Locks
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Near Locks
Minnesota
Bubble
Michigan (14-9; 5-6) RPI 48
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Case Against: Overall record, conference record
Analysis: The Wolverines are hanging around the cut line after a close loss at UConn. They get three good chances at home to get back on track (vs. Penn St., Michigan State and Minnesota) coming up, but .500 might be enough. 8-10 in this league would likely send them to the NIT.
Wisconsin (13-9; 5-6) RPI 27
Case For: RPI, win at Virginia Tech, vs. Illionois
Case Against: Too many losses, Big Ten record
Analysis: The Badgers have resurrected their season at 5-6 in the conference. The RPI is very good, and they have Indiana twice down the stretch. Bubble-wise, they own a sweep of Penn State and a win at Michigan, which may put them at the top of the Big Ten bubble pecking order.
Penn State (17-7; 6-5) RPI 84
Case For: League record, wins vs. Purdue, at Michigan State
Case Against: Still no bad losses, low RPI
Analysis: The Nittany Lions are teetering on the brink of the NIT after two disappointing losses to Michigan and Wisconsin. Three of the next four are on the road, and all are against likely tournament teams.
Treading Water
Northwestern (12-8; 4-6) RPI 61
Conference USA_________________________________
UAB and Tulsa jump up for a look, but both may need wins over Memphis to have a good chance.
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
UAB (16-8; 6-3) RPI 32
Case For: RPI, win vs. Arizona
Case Against: No marquee wins
Analysis: The Blazers have the computer numbers to get a good look, but may need a win over Memphis to put them over the top. There are no bad losses on the slate, as all have come against the top 100 RPI. If they beat Memphis and run the table in the regular season, CUSA will send two teams dancing.
Tulsa (16-7; 7-2) RPI 64
Case For: CUSA record, win vs. UAB
Case Against: Need a lot more
Analysis: The Golden Hurricane need to win at Memphis to really have a chance, as their wins over UAB and a fading Texas A&M aren’t all that impressive.
Treading Water
None
MVC_________________________________________________
Creighton’s win over Northern Iowa is actually a good thing for the league, as it was probably the only way for the league to get multiple bids. Creighton still has plenty of winning to do to get into the tournament, but at least its not impossible.
Northern Iowa (16-7; 11-2) RPI 83
Case For: MVC leaders
Case Against: A couple bad losses, RPI
Analysis: The Panthers dropped a homie to Creighton, and are no longer running away with the Valley – and that happens to be their main at-large case. They need to up the RPI significantly, so maybe Bracket Busters will help get them some attention.
Creighton (19-6; 9-4) RPI 60
Case For: Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, at St. Joe’s
Case Against: Three sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Blue Jays have the best nonconference scalps of the MVC contenders. The win over Northern Iowa is a huge boost to a profile that still needs work. Running the table, while difficult, may be necessary to get a bid, but at least they are back in the equation. The RPI should go up if they keep winning, and if that happens its hard to see a MVC team with 23+ wins getting snubbed.
Treading Water
Illinois State (19-5; 8-5) RPI 77
Pac-10__________________________________________________
California gets locked up with an impressive sweep of Washington. USC looks strong, and Arizona is very much back in the mix.
Locks
UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California
Near Locks
None
Bubble
USC (15-7; 6-4) RPI 42
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona St., vs. Cal
Case Against: Need a few more good wins
Analysis: The Trojans are closer to the cut line than they were before, and have a tough road swing through the Arizona schools. .500 or better may do it, and ending the season with homies against the two Oregon schools helps immensely.
Arizona (15-8; 6-5) RPI 53
Case For: Good wins vs. Washington, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Kansas
Case Against: RPI
Analysis: At first glance, Arizona appears to be back on the good side of the bubble. Look a little deeper, and you see that four of their Pac-10 wins are against the Oregon schools. That means that the rest of the league slate contains no gimmes, but also that the schedule is littered with big opportunities to bolster their case. They have the nonconference wins, but as of yet not the league performance and RPI to be on solid ground.
Treading Water
None
Mountain West__________________________________________
Utah is locked up by virtue of an RPI of 11 and as the co-leader of the conference. New Mexico is threatening to give the league five legit at-large candidates.
Locks
Utah
Near Locks
None
Bubble
BYU (16-5; 5-3) RPI 36
Case For: Win over Utah State, RPI
Case Against: No signature wins
Analysis: Everyone knows they are good, but all they have on their side are wins against pretty good teams. A crucial stretch of vs. New Mexico, at UNLV, at SDSU and vs. Utah will decide their fate.
UNLV (17-6; 5-4) RPI 54
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, at Louisville
Case Against: Losses to California, Cincinnati, San Diego State
Analysis: UNLV has slipped to fifth in the MWC standings and is in danger as a result. The nonconference wins are great, but taking care of business in a pretty good league is their safest bet for a bid. They need 9-7 in the league at the very worst,but unfortunately they don’t have any games against Air Force left.
San Diego State (15-5; 7-2) RPI 46
Case For: MWC co-leaders
Case Against: The
Analysis: The Aztecs are showing surprisingly strong in the MWC, which is enormously helpful. There is nothing in the nonconference performance that will help them, so MWC play is cruc 11-5 in the MWC will probably do the trick, but they may also need to complete the sweep of UNLV to safely leapfrog the Rebels in the pecking order.
New Mexico (15-9; 6-3) RPI 75
Case For: Third in MWC
Case Against: Nonconference performance
Analysis: The Lobos stand an impressive third in the conference, but there is nothing else outside the conference to deserve a bid. They likely need to win two of the three games they have left with Utah, UNLV and SDSU to warrant a closer look.
Treading Water
None
SEC____________________________________________________
Locks
Florida
Near Locks
Tennessee (14-8; 5-3) RPI 21
Case For: RPI, win over Marquette
Case Against: Too many losses
Analysis: The Vols own the toughest schedule in the country, but have lost a number of games to good teams. The computer numbers are there, but the on-court performance says bubble team. They have three winnable games ahead, and grabbing those will lock them up – until they inevitably lose again.
Bubble
South Carolina (17-5; 6-3) RPI 43
Case For: Wins at Kentucky, vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: The Gamecocks are in good shape as the RPI has risen. They own wins over Florida and fellow bubbler Kentucky with chance for a sweep over the Wildcats later in the month. SEC play is all they have, as there is nothing helpful in the nonconference department.
LSU (19-4; 7-1) RPI 52
Case For: Overall and conference record, win at Tennessee
Case Against: RPI
Analysis: The Tigers are a low RPI away from being a near lock. They have grabbed enough good SEC wins so far, and can complete a sweep of Mississippi State to almost put the West division out of reach. Winning the division will probably send them dancing.
Kentucky (16-7; 5-3) RPI 74
Case For: Prestige
Case Against: Lost three straight, RPI
Analysis: The Wildcats are spiraling towards the NIT after starting 5-0 in conference. The RPI stinks, but at least there are no bad losses outside of Big South leader VMI. They need to make a move towards the division title to get back on track.
Mississippi State (15-7; 6-2) RPI 77
Case For: Contending for SEC West
Case Against: Only good conference win is at Kentucky
Analysis: The Bulldogs have a huge chance to catch LSU in the West this week, and they need it for an at-large chance. The RPI is low, and the schedule is going to get tougher down the stretch. They may need to post an 11-5 to get a good look.
Treading Water
Vanderbilt (15-8; 4-5) RPI 95
West Coast_________________________________________________
St. Mary’s is on life support, but have two chances for good wins coming up. Despite the thorough housing by Memphis, Gonzaga will still make the field.
Locks
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (17-4; 6-3) RPI 59
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, vs. San Diego State
Case Against: No Patty Mills, weak schedule
Analysis: The Mills injury is devastating, and it is uncertain his supporting cast is not holding the fort down. The next four are at home, and they likely need all four to get back into the tournament after the Santa Clara loss. At least home shots vs. Gonzaga and Utah State could grant them a temporary reprieve. If they don’t start winning now, they need to get Mills healthy and focus on winning the WCC tournament.
Treading Water:
None
Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here. Past history shows that teams below that threshold wont get a decent look, fair or not. Davidson and Siena took major, major hits by losing their undefeated league records.
Locks
Butler, Utah State
Near Locks
Davidson (19-4; 13-1 SoCon) RPI 50
Case For: Win vs. West Virginia, Steph Curry
Case Against: RPI
Analysis: Davidson cannot afford another league loss unless it is in the SoCon championship game. If they do lose one more bad game, a Bracket Busters win over Butler is probably necessary. The best thing they have going for them is Stephen Curry, and the committee will no doubt take his star power into account.
Bubble
Siena (19-6; 13-1 MAAC) RPI 28
Case For: Wins at St Joe’s and vs. Buffalo; RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities haunt them
Analysis: The loss at Rider knocks Siena down a little. The Saints have a great RPI, and have ripped through a good MAAC, but they have put their at-large chances in the air. They are looking decent right now, and should get an honest look with their computer numbers. Hopefully last year’s tourney win over Vanderbilt still resonates.
Buffalo (16-5; 8-1 MAC) RPI 76
Case For: MAC leaders, win vs. Temple
Case Against: Only one bad loss, RPI
Analysis: The Bulls are on the bubble by way of leading the MAC, but the profile needs some help. They don’t have a roadie against anyone with a winning record, so at least a gaudy league record (which they need) is within reach. A Bracket Busters win is required to stay here.
Wisconsin-Green Bay (18-5; 11-2 Horizon) RPI 59
Case For: Win vs. Butler
Case Against: loss to Loyola-Ill.
Analysis: The Butler win puts the Phoenix on the bubble. Four of the last five are on the road, but all are winnable. 16-2 in the Horizon would be a nice mark going into the conference tourney, considering the league is currently rated 11th in conference RPI.
Western Kentucky (16-7; 11-2 Sun Belt) RPI 61
Case For: Win vs. Louisville
Case Against: Two sub-200 losses, blown out by Murray State and Evansville
Analysis: The Hilltoppers are back on the bubble radar after posting an 11-2 start in league play. The two league losses were bad, and their other blowout losses overshadow the spectacular win over Louisville. At worst, they need to run the table in the Sun Belt regular season to be in the mix.
Treading Water
Northeastern (16-7; 11-2 CAA) RPI 65; George Mason (16-7; 9-4 CAA) RPI 57; Niagara (19-6; 10-3 MAAC) RPI 72; Boise State (15-6; 6-3) RPI 80
