A lot is being made of how teams like Miami-FL and Kansas State are among the "last four in" many bracket projections. What these projections fail to tell you is that these conclusions are drawn by projecting chalk results from conference tournaments and that these "last four in" are the last four in under perfect circumstances. We have all seen enough college basketball to know that things don't always turn out perfectly. Being a few weeks from the conference tournaments skews the pojections a bit, as nobody is sure how many teams are virtually guaranteed a spot - and most at-larges are virtually spoken for before the last week of the season. What we are saying is that the last four teams in below would most likely be screwed by the predictable chaos of March.
Land of the Locks (46): 31 Conference Winners, 15 at-large *= projected conference winner
North Carolina* (ACC), Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Xavier* (A-10), Connecticut* (Big East), Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova , Oklahoma* (Big Twelve), Kansas, Missouri, Michigan State* (Big Ten), Purdue, Illinois, Memphis* (CUSA), Northern Iowa* (MVC), Utah* (Mountain West), Florida* (SEC), UCLA * (Pac-10), Arizona State, California, Washington, Gonzaga* (WCC), Butler* (Horizon), Davidson* (SoCon), Utah State* (WAC), Siena* (MAAC), Northeastern* (CAA), Buffalo* (MAC), Western Kentucky* (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin* (Southland), Binghamton* (America East), Long Beach State* (Big West), Austin Peay* (Ohio Valley), Weber State* (Big Sky), VMI* (Big South), American* (Patriot), Princeton* (Ivy), North Dakota State* (Summit), Belmont* (A-Sun), Robert Morris* (NEC), Morgan State* (MEAC), Alabama State* (SWAC)
Near Locks (4): 4 availableat-large
Dayton, Syracuse, Minnesota, Tennessee
Bubble (33): 15 available at-large
Miami (FL), Boston College, Virginia Tech, Maryland, St. Joseph’s, West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Providence, Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, UAB, Tulsa, Creighton, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, South Carolina, LSU, Mississippi State, Kentucky, USC, Arizona, St. Mary’s, Buffalo, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Western Kentucky
Bubble In (11): Boston College, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Texas, BYU, South Carolina, LSU, USC, BYU, Kentucky, San Diego State
Projected Cut Line (4) UNLV, Arizona, Miami, Cincinnati
Bubble Out (18) Kansas State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wisconsin, UAB, Georgetown, Providence, Maryland, St. Joseph’s, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Penn State, Tulsa, Creighton, New Mexico, Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Buffalo, Western Kentucky
