Is this the worst bubble year ever? ESPN and its kind would make you think so. The answer is an unequivocal no. Keep in mind that a 6-10 ACC record was good enough to get Florida State into the 1998 NCAA Tournament. Everyone on the Bubble Tracker has its issues. If they had solid resumes, they would be in the tournament and there would be no need for stupid lists like this. In fact, many of the teams on the bubble could play in the tournament's second weekend. So instead of sorting through a bunch of ugly blemishes, let's try and stay positive here. Unless its about UCLA and Notre Dame, because they both suck.
ACC_________________________________________________
Maryland won their way onto the cutline by beating UNC. Virginia Tech and BC suffered devastating losses, but BC maintains a little bit of an edge over Tech right now.
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Boston College (19-9; 7-6) RPI 55
Case For: Win at North Carolina, vs. Duke
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis, loss vs. Harvard, RPI isn’t great
Analysis: A loss at Miami isn’t fatal, but it could have sealed up an at-large bid considering how badly everyone else in the mix is looking right now. The Eagles have beaten Duke and UNC, essentially wiping the negatives off the table (Harvard and St. Louis). It also gives them a cushion to go 8-8 in the conference and get a bid, evn if the RPI is a little low for an at-large. They might want to get two more league wins to feel safe, but they are likely in at this point.
Virginia Tech (16-10; 6-6) RPI 66
Case For: Win at Wake Forest
Case Against: No good nonconference wins
Analysis: The collective F-bomb you just heard came from Blacksburg, where the Hokies lost yet again in heartbreaking fashion. You will not find an unluckier team in America. As a result, their at-large chances are fading fast, if not gone already. They have just 5 top-100 wins to their credit but remain in the game for one more week. The next four are all against top-20 RPI teams, so they will have to earn a .500 or better ACC record with good wins. 8-8 might do it, but only because two of those wins would be of the marquee variety. The one giant help is that nobody else has won at Wake – that is their best card to play right now.
Maryland (16-9; 6-6) RPI 52
Case For: Win vs. Michigan State, vs. UNC
Case Against: Only one road win, home loss to Morgan State
Analysis: The Terps were the weekend’s big Bubble winner after shocking UNC at home. For now, it puts them at the cutline. The closing stretch is difficult, but they get two more huge chances at home with Duke and Wake Forest coming to College Park. 8-8 is probably not enough with this profile, unless another big upset is involved. There are some excellent items on the resume, but also a few ugly negatives. The Terps have just one true road win (at Georgia Tech) and blowout losses to Duke (by 41), Clemson (by 29), Georgetown and Gonzaga, as well as a head-scratcher against Morgan State.
Treading Water
Miami (15-10; 5-8) RPI 46; NC State (15-10; 5-7) RPI 90
Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Temple is threatening to make it three from the A-10/A-14. Rhode Island can make a huge statement if it can knock of Dayton this week. Good week for the A-10/A-14 considering the major conference bubblers pretty much suck as a group.
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
Dayton (23-4; 9-3) RPI 29
Analysis: A loss at St. Louis sends the Flyers down a bit ahead of a very difficult stretch of at Rhode Island, vs. Temple and a return game against revenge-minded Xavier. Their two big wins (Marquette and Xavier) have them in the field right now. Can they survive two more losses down the stretch? Probably, but flaming out at the end of the A-10 regular season won’t help their chances.
Bubble
Temple (16-9; 8-3) RPI 36
Case For: RPI, win vs. Tennessee
Case Against: Losses to Long Beach State, UMass
Analysis: The Owls have an inflated RPI, and an easy slate coming up. They are at a point where winning out – with a win at Dayton – could send them dancing. With the rest of the carnage around them, Temple is looking better and better for an at-large. The Tennessee shellacking is good, but the Vols are not the top-15 team they were when the win occurred. But is the survival of a tough nonconference schedule worth a bid?
Treading Water
Rhode Island (20-8; 9-4) RPI 68
Big East_________________________________________________
Not a good week for the Big East bubblers. Nobody helped their case, and some are on the verge of the NIT.
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia
Near Locks
Syracuse (18-8; 7-7) RPI 24
Analysis: A tough home loss to Villanova should make the Orange sweat a bit. They need to get two more conference wins to punch their ticket. Syracuse is in good shape because of their computer numbers, but not out of the woods yet. They could be in danger if they post an 8-10 league record and lose in the first round of the Big East tournament. Their best conference win is still against West Virginia. Let’s face it – they may have peaked too early, but the nonconference work is probably enough to overcome a .500 league record.
Bubble
Georgetown (14-11; 5-9) RPI 45
Case For: Win at UConn
Case Against: Big East record, swept by Cincinnati
Analysis: A blowout win over South Florida is a step in the right direction, although there is a lot of work to be done. There is no way to sugar coat it: the Hoyas are in deep trouble, and their RPI has slipped badly. Getting swept by fellow bubbler Cincinnati may be fatal. At 5-9 in the conference, they have used up all of their allowable league losses. The best strength of schedule in the world won’t help if they keep losing. 9-9 is what they need, and while possible, would require their best basketball of the season. They are pretty far on the outside looking in.
Cincinnati (16-10; 7-7) RPI 53
Case For: Win at UNLV, vs. UAB, swept Georgetown
Case Against: Swept by Providence.
Analysis: The Bearcats have one chance to salvage their at-large hopes: a homie vs. West Virginia. The profile is not good enough to get an at-large with 9-9, no matter how it happens. They have tiebreaking wins over fellow bubblers, but the Providence sweep may come back to bite them. At least they have a legitimate stake over Georgetown, sweeping the Hoyas. Both conference and non-conference performances are average.
Providence (16-11; 8-7) RPI 76
Case For: Big East record, Cincinnati sweep, win over Syracuse
Case Against: RPI, No other good wins
Analysis: The Friars are in danger of dropping out of the tracker after a devastating home loss to Notre Dame. They have a winning 8-7 league mark, but most of their damage has come at the expense of the league’s weaklings. A winning league record means they have to win either vs. Pitt or at Villanova, because 9-9 is not going to do it for them. They need to beat Pittsburgh or Villanova to have any chance, and might need both.
Treading Water
Notre Dame (14-11; 6-8) RPI 72
Big 12______________________________________________________
Locks
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Near Locks
Texas (18-8; 7-5) RPI 35
Analysis: The Longhorns are close to punching their ticket after a win over Oklahoma. The nonconference wins are very good, but the computer numbers aren’t great. Grabbing their two remaining home games will get them in, but the roadies at Ok State and Kansas are tough.
Bubble
Kansas State (17-8; 7-5) RPI 75
Case For: Wins vs. Missouri, at Texas, conference record
Case Against: RPI, very weak nonconference schedule and performance
Analysis: The Wildcats need to get to 10-6 in the conference considering the low RPI. The Texas and Missouri wins are great, but there’s not much else to the resume. Other than a win at Cleveland State, there is just a collection of cupcake home wins in the nonconference. The resume needs some help, and they may need to look towards the conference tournament for some more good wins.
Nebraska (16-9; 6-6) RPI 64
Case For: Wins over Missouri, vs. Texas, vs. Creighton
Case Against: RPI, loss to UMBC
Analysis: The Cornhuskers need to string together some wins fast. They also need one more upset to help a resume that lacks any nonconference help besides a win over surging Creighton, and their one final chance before the Big 12 tournament at that is a trip to Kansas. 9-7 would get them a look, but it won’t put them over the top. Texas A&M looms in a virtual bubble elimination game.
Oklahoma State (17-9; 6-6) RPI 31
Case For: RPI, win vs. Siena
Case Against: Lack of marquee wins
Analysis: The Cowboys are back to .500 in the conference and have a decent computer profile. Their best nonconference work was wins vs. Siena and Rhode Island, and their best win in the conference is at Nebraska. Hard to see how the computer numbers are so good, so the Pokes need to post at least a 9-7 in conference and maybe do some damage in the conference tournament. Winning the next three before a trip to Oklahoma will help their case immensely.
Texas A&M (18-8; 5-7) RPI 39
Case For: Wins vs. LSU, Arizona, Texas
Case Against: Conference record, Bubble losses
Analysis: The Aggies might need to win their last four conference games to have a shot. They have a decent computer profile, but can claim just 5 top-100 wins - although four were against the top-50. They have a couple nice nonconference wins over tournament bound LSU and contender Arizona, but have only one win against their fellow Big 12 bubblers.
Treading Water
None
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
Ohio State and Michigan are slipping, while Penn State is on the verge of a stunning at-large bid.
Locks
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Ohio State (17-8; 7-7) RPI 43
Case For: Wins vs. Butler, Purdue, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Conference record, losers of three straight
Analysis: The Buckeyes have good nonconference wins over Butler, Notre Dame and Miami – but this is not November anymore. Only Butler is a tournament team right now. They do have a few good conference wins, though. The whooping they got at home against West Virginia also stands out. As it stands, the Buckeyes did enough out of conference to withstand their current swoon. Two of the last four are at home, and a 10-8 mark will send them dancing.
Minnesota (19-7; 8-7) RPI 38
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Illinois, at Wisconsin
Case Against: Lost six of last ten
Analysis: Minnesota got a needed home rout of Northwestern to right the ship. The computer numbers are falling, but they own enough good wins in the conference to merit a bid right now. If they continue to slip, they could be inviting trouble. Two more home games could prevent that, and both are bubble showdowns vs. Wisconsin and Michigan.
Penn State (19-8; 8-6) RPI 62
Case For: wins at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, at Illinois
Case Against: RPI, nonconference wins lacking
Analysis: The Nittany Lions got a gigantic win at Illinois to move to the good side of the bubble. They need the marquee wins and a good (10-8 or better) Big Ten mark to make the dance. Will their soft nonconference schedule hurt them? It has hit their RPI pretty hard, but the conference work has more than made up for it. Beating Indiana and Illinois at home should send them dancing.
Michigan (16-11; 7-8) RPI 56
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Case Against: Conference record, swept by Ohio State
Analysis: The Wolverines suffered a devastating loss at Iowa that puts them on the outside of the imaginary field. There are just too many losses to ignore, and they can likely only afford one more league loss to still have a chance. A .500 conference mark might be enough, as their great nonconference wins (UCLA, Duke) give them a bit of an edge over fellow bubblers, but they were swept by Ohio State.
Wisconsin (16-10; 8-7) RPI 27
Case For: RPI, win at Virginia Tech, vs. Illinois
Case Against: Six game midseason losing streak
Analysis: The Badgers blew a huge lead at Michigan State and are now in some considerable trouble. They have resurrected their season after a very bad six game midseason losing streak. The RPI is very good, and they have enough good nonconference wins to possibly merit a bid if they get to 10-8 in conference. Bubble-wise, they own a sweep of Penn State and a win at Michigan, which may put them at the top of the Big Ten bubble pecking order. Wins over Michigan at home and Minnesota on the road are their chances to punch a ticket. Without those, they are in trouble.
Treading Water
None
Conference USA_________________________________
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
UAB (19-8: 9-3) RPI 40
Case For: RPI, win vs. Arizona
Case Against: No marquee conference wins
Analysis: The Blazers have the computer numbers to get a good look, but may need a win over Memphis to put them over the top. There are no bad losses on the slate, as all have come against the top 100 RPI. If they beat Memphis and run the table in the regular season, CUSA might send two teams dancing. Without it, its tough to make a case for the Blazers.
Treading Water
None
MVC_________________________________________________
The conference was saved from a Bracket Busters washout by Creighton’s win over George Mason. The Bluejays are looking increasingly strong for an at-large bid.
Bubble
Creighton (23-6; 12-4) RPI 48
Case For: Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, George Mason
Case Against: Two sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Blue Jays have ripped through eight straight to emerge as a true at-large threat. Running the table should get them a bid. The RPI should go up if they keep winning, and if that happens it’s hard to see a MVC team with 25+ wins getting snubbed. With the major conference teams stumbling towards the finish line, we think Creighton is just as deserving of an at-large as teams like Boston College and UNLV. If the selection were today, they would probably be in.
Treading Water
Illinois State (22-6; 11-5) RPI 58
Pac-10__________________________________________________
USC is in deep trouble, while Arizona has surged to near-lock status. Five looks like a good bet, with six at most.
Locks
UCLA, Washington, Arizona State
Near Locks
California (20-7; 9-5) RPI 32
Analysis: The Bears were swept by Oregon State, and need to be knocked down a peg temporarily. None of the last four are guaranteed, so they do need one and maybe two wins to seal things up. The Bears boast a sweep of Washington, and wins at Utah, UNLV and vs. Arizona State.
Bubble
Arizona (18-9; 8-6) RPI 42
Case For: Good wins vs. Washington, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Kansas
Case Against: No bad losses – so maybe early losing skid?
Analysis: Arizona missed a big chance at Arizona State to effectively punch their ticket. They probably have the nonconference wins and the conference performance to merit inclusion. The next two are on the road, and grabbing at least one is important to keep the momentum going in their favor. 10-8 will get them in, but a road sweep will further highlight their bad performance away from home – their only road wins came at the Oregon schools.
USC (16-10; 7-7) RPI 49
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona St., vs. Cal
Case Against: Need a few more good wins
Analysis: The Trojans are in trouble after a tough home loss to Washington. They would not make the cut if the selection were today. They have slipped to sixth in the Pac-10 pecking order but ending the season with homies against the two Oregon schools helps immensely. There isn’t anything impressive in the nonconference slate. A win at Cal could turn their chances around, as the last three are winnable.
Treading Water
None
Mountain West__________________________________________
Utah is locked up by virtue of a high RPI and as the leader of the conference. San Diego State suffered one of the worst losses of the week for bubblers, getting a 26-point whooping at The Pit.
Locks
Utah
Near Locks
None
Bubble
BYU (19-6; 8-4) RPI 30
Case For: Win over Utah State, 7-5 vs. Top-100
Case Against: Might not win MWC title
Analysis: The Cougars lost their second game to UNLV and put their at-large chances in jeopardy. They have a good win over Utah State, but the rest of the profile is just pretty good. They need the Utah game to give them a second top-25 RPI win. The next four will determine their fate. 11-5 in conference might be enough, but the Cougars are hovering right at the cut line.
UNLV (20-7; 8-5) RPI 50
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, vs. Utah, at Louisville, sweep of BYU
Case Against: Losses at TCU, at Colorado State
Analysis: UNLV completed an impressive sweep of BYU to keep their at-large hopes alive. The nonconference wins are great, but taking care of business in a pretty good league is their safest bet for a bid. Two of the last three should do it, as 9-7 in the league will put them in serious trouble and probably on the outside of the field. Right now they are probably right on the good side of the cut line.
San Diego State (16-7; 8-4) RPI 47
Case For: T-Second place in MWC, win vs. Utah, at UNLV
Case Against: Nonconference wins are lacking, destroyed at New Mexico
Analysis: The Aztecs were hammered at New Mexico, something they absolutely did not need at this point of the conference race. They are showing pretty strong in the very good MWC, which is helpful. There is nothing in the nonconference performance that will help them, so MWC play is crucial. With three of the last four at home, everything is there for the Aztec’s taking. After such a bad loss, beating BYU and UNLV is essential if they want an at-large now.
New Mexico (17-10; 8-4) RPI 70
Case For: MWC record, wins vs. SDSU, BYU, UNLV
Case Against: Nonconference play; All of the good wins are at home
Analysis: The Lobos are four wins away from getting a long at-large look after stomping SDSU at home. Three sub-100 losses hurt, as well as a lack of good nonconference wins. Even though it would mean two more road wins and beating Utah, 12-4 in the MWC is a strong statement on a tournament resume.
Treading Water
None
SEC____________________________________________________
LSU is safely in, but the rest of the league is a mess. Luckily, everyone plays each other down the stretch to sort things out.
Locks
LSU
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Tennessee (16-10; 7-5) RPI 25
Case For: Wins vs. Siena, Marquette, South Carolina, Florida
Case Against: Too many losses in SEC, swept by Kentucky
Analysis: The Volunteers fall onto the bubble after yet another league loss. They own one of the toughest schedules in the country, but have lost a number of games to good teams. The computer numbers are there, but the league losses are piling up in a not-so-great conference. They will be tested in their last four SEC games, so they need to avoid any semblance of a collapse. 8-8 in the SEC is not going to cut it, no matter what the SOS ends up being.
Florida (21-6; 8-4) RPI 41
Case For: Wins vs. Washington, NC State
Case Against: RPI, loss to Georgia
Analysis: The Gators are barely on the good side of the bubble, but with a chance to solidify a bid down the stretch. Either that or fall off the face of the earth. The nonconference resume is OK with a win vs. Washington, but they need to avoid falling in the East standings. The best conference win is at home vs. South Carolina, but they have shots at home vs. Kentucky and Tennessee to shore up the resume. If they lose at LSU, they will need both games to have a chance. A trip to Mississippi State is no picnic either.
South Carolina (19-6; 8-4) RPI 44
Case For: Wins at Kentucky, vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: The Gamecocks are in decent shape, as their RPI has risen to an acceptable level. They own wins over Florida and fellow bubbler Kentucky with chance for a sweep over the Wildcats later in the month. SEC play is all they have, as there is nothing helpful in the nonconference department. Two home wins over Kentucky and Tennessee could send them dancing, but they should aim for at least 11-5 to feel safe.
Kentucky (19-8; 8-4) RPI 61
Case For: Wins vs. Florida, WVU, swept Tennessee
Case Against: RPI, loss to VMI
Analysis: Kentucky beat fellow bubbler Tennessee for the second time to stake their claim as the #2 pick from the SEC. Wins over West Virginia and Kansas State were good out of conference, but eight of their wins are against sub-200 RPI teams. The RPI may be low, but at least there are no bad losses outside of Big South leader VMI. The schedule remains tough down the stretch, and the Wildcats face three more tourney contenders in the conference. Wins in two of those will send them dancing.
Treading Water
Mississippi State (16-10; 7-5) RPI 84; Mississippi (15-11; 6-6) RPI 65
West Coast_________________________________________________
St. Mary’s is back in the mix after a huge win over Utah State. If they take care of business up until the WCC final, the conference should send two teams dancing, although that is easier said than done.
Locks
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (20-5; 8-4) RPI 51
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Case Against: Loss at Santa Clara
Analysis: The Gaels got a tremendous home win over Utah State and have jumped back into serious consideration. If they win out to the WCC final and have Patty Mills back, they could be very well looking at a bid considering the committee will judge them on Mills being back. The nonconference wins are looking pretty good with wins over three bubble teams, and the RPI is trending up.
Treading Water
None
Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here. Past history shows that teams below that threshold won’t get a decent look, fair or not. Butler mortally wounded Davidson, and the MAAC showed extremely well in their Bracket Busters test. The big one this week is TourneyBubble favorite Siena visiting fellow (periphery) bubbler Niagara. The result will either send Siena closer to an at-large or Niagara rocketing up the charts.
Locks
Butler
Near Locks
Utah State (24-3; 12-1) RPI 28
Analysis: The St. Mary’s loss keeps the Aggies from lock status, but they would have to be in the field somewhere if the selection were today. We just hope another loss doesn’t leave things up to chance with the committee, who has historically given teams like Utah State the shaft. The win over Utah is their best nonconference offering, and 5-2 vs. the top-100 is nothing to be ashamed about either.
Bubble
Davidson (21-6; 15-2 SoCon) RPI 59
Case For: Win over West Virginia
Case Against: RPI, two SoCon losses
Analysis: The Steph Curry injury likely has sent the Wildcats scrambling for the automatic bid. A win over a wounded West Virginia team and a W against NC State are the highlights of a decent nonconference slate, but the two SoCon losses may have done in their at-large chances. Winning out until the SoCon final is a necessity if they even want to sniff an at-large, and even then it may have to be paired with a collapse of several other bubblers.
Siena (22-6; 15-1 MAAC) RPI 24
Case For: Wins at St Joe’s, vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Buffalo, RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities may haunt them
Analysis: Siena blasted Northern Iowa to further bolster their resume, but must win at Niagara to really solidify a bid. Winning out until the MAAC final will get them into the dance. The Saints have a great RPI, and have ripped through a good MAAC. They should get credit for scheduling tough games, even if they didn’t get any good wins out of them. They are in good shape based on the failings of the major teams in the discussion. Hopefully last year’s tourney win over Vanderbilt still resonates.
Niagara (22-7; 12-4 MAAC) RPI 63
Case For: 10 road wins
Case Against: Five sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Purple Eagles dominated Illinois State ahead of their death match with Siena. Their slim at-large hopes depend on beating Siena at home. If they beat the Saints and get to the MAAC final, they will be sitting at 26 wins and have to at least be in the conversation. If the committee values road wins, they have a chance.
Treading Water
Wisconsin-Green Bay (20-7; 12-4 Horizon) RPI 67; Western Kentucky (18-8; 31-3 Sun Belt) RPI 60
