One relatively ignored subject from both the media and ESPN Mock Selections was a new criteria for selecting teams for the final at-larges - the "best team" will get a bid, allowing committee members to go with their instincts in their selections.  This is an absolute outrage for mid-majors and non-power teams.  It leaves the door wide open for biased, misinformed selections of teams that are supposed to be good, were good for a couple weeks or are underachieving.  It's fantastic news for teams like Notre Dame, Georgetown and Michigan, and bad news for teams like Creighton, Siena and Penn State.  This development is disturbing because college hoops fans almost universally loathe the politics and posturing involved in the BCS selection process in football, and most of college basketball's charm is found in its inclusive, all-comers tournament.  We will see what happens on Selection Sunday.

ACC_________________________________________________
Locks 
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
Near Locks
Boston College (20-9; 8-6) RPI 51
Case For: Win at North Carolina, vs. Duke, vs. Florida State
Case Against: Loss at St. Louis, loss vs. Harvard, RPI isn’t great
Analysis:  A win over Florida State all but puts BC in the field.  Getting one of the final two at NC State or at home against Georgia Tech should seal the deal with their quality wins.  The Eagles have beaten Duke, Florida State and UNC, essentially wiping the negatives off the table (Harvard and St. Louis).  It probably also gives them a cushion to go 8-8 in the conference and get a bid, even if the RPI is a little low for an at-large. 
Bubble
Virginia Tech (17-10; 7-6) RPI 52
Case For: Wins at Wake Forest, at Clemson, at Miami, vs. BC
Case Against: No good nonconference wins
Analysis: The Hokies breathed new life into their at-large chances with a gigantic win at Clemson.  The next three are all against top-25 RPI teams, so they will have to earn a .500 or better ACC record with good wins. 8-8 might do it, as few Bubblers can claim the two marquee road wins the Hokies have.  A win in either home contest against UNC or Duke could seal the deal.
Maryland (16-10; 6-7) RPI 58
Case For: Win vs. Michigan State, vs. UNC
Case Against: Only one road win, home loss to Morgan State
Analysis: The Terps were the weekend’s big Bubble winner after shocking UNC at home.  For now, it puts them at the cutline.  The closing stretch is difficult, but they get two more huge chances at home with Duke and Wake Forest coming to College Park.  8-8 is probably not enough with this profile, unless another big upset is involved.  There are some excellent items on the resume, but also a few ugly negatives.  The Terps have just one true road win (at Georgia Tech) and blowout losses to Duke (by 41), Clemson (by 29), Georgetown and Gonzaga, as well as a head-scratcher against Morgan State.
Miami (16-10; 6-8) RPI 46
Case For: Wins vs. Wake Forest, Florida State, at Kentucky, at BC
Case Against: Acc record, close calls vs. top teams
Analysis:  The race for 8-8 continues for the Canes, and they remain alive in the at-large conversation, providing they win their next two league games.  They have nice wins at Kentucky and BC and a blowout of Wake Forest.  A bad stretch of 6 losses in 7 games may haunt them, but considering their wins, 8-8 will give them a good shot at a bid.
Treading Water
None

Atlantic 10__________________________________________________________
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Dayton (23-5; 9-4) RPI 33
Case For: Wins at Marquette, vs. Xavier
Case Against:  Losses to UMass, Charlotte, St. Louis
Analysis:  A loss at Rhode Island sends the Flyers all the way down to the Bubble.   Their two big wins (Marquette and Xavier) probably have them in the field right now, but not very safely.  Can they survive any more losses down the stretch?  Probably, but flaming out at the end of the A-10 regular season won’t help their chances.  They need to beat either Temple or Xavier again to stop the bleeding.
Temple (17-10; 9-4) RPI 37
Case For: RPI, win vs. Tennessee, at Penn State
Case Against: Losses to LaSalle, Long Beach State, UMass
Analysis: Temple may have kissed its at-large hopes goodbye with an absolutely terrible home loss to LaSalle.  They cannot lose any more games prior to the A-10/A-14 final if they want a look.  The Tennessee shellacking is good, but the Vols are not the top-15 team they were when the win occurred. The Penn State win is also good, but is the survival of a tough nonconference schedule worth a bid? Probably not with these ugly blemishes on the resume.
Rhode Island (21-8; 10-4) RPI 57
Case For: Win over Dayton
Case Against: Loss at Richmond, close calls
Analysis: The Rams jump onto the Bubble after a thrilling win over league heavyweight Dayton.  If they can get past Duquesne and UMass and have a good A-10 tourney showing (beat Dayton, Xavier or Temple en route to the finals), they will have a fairly impressive resume and be right in the selection mix.  Bet they would love to have the Duke and Providence near-misses back, but they are one of the few Bubblers earning their way towards a bid.
Treading Water
None

Big East_________________________________________________
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia
Near Locks
Syracuse (19-8; 8-7) RPI 22
Analysis: They need to get one more conference win to punch their ticket.  Syracuse is in good shape because of their computer numbers, but not out of the woods yet.  They could be in danger if they post an 8-10 league record and lose in the first round of the Big East tournament.  Their best conference win is still against West Virginia.  Let’s face it – they may have peaked too early, but the nonconference work is probably enough to overcome a .500 league record.  They have wins over WVU, Florida, Kansas and a great win at Memphis.
Bubble
Cincinnati (17-10; 8-7) RPI 56
Case For: Wins vs. WVU, at UNLV, vs. UAB, swept Georgetown,
Case Against: Swept by Providence
Analysis:  The Bearcats are right in the mix after getting a huge win over West Virginia.  10-8 will put them right on the cutline, and there are two wins on the schedule if they play like they are capable of playing.  They have a few tiebreaking wins over fellow bubblers, but the Providence sweep may come back to bite them.  Both conference and non-conference performances are average.  The goal now is to avoid any bad losses.
Providence (17-11; 9-7) RPI 71
Case For: Big East record, Cincinnati sweep, wins over Syracuse and Pittsburgh
Case Against: RPI, No other good wins
Analysis: The Friars got one of the biggest wins of the bubble season by thoroughly beating #1 Pittsburgh.  They have a winning 9-7 league mark, but prior to beating Pitt most of their damage has come at the expense of the league’s weaklings.  Two more Big East wins almost guarantees a bid, as its tough to see an 11-7 team being left out of the field.
Notre Dame (15-11; 7-8) RPI 73
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Texas
Case Against: RPI, 4-10 vs. top-100
Analysis:  The Irish are back on the Bubble after winning four of five.  A trip to UConn looms for a team that has severely underachieved all year.  More than anyone, they could benefit from the expected emphasis on the committee selecting the “best teams” for the tournament, i.e. rewarding teams that are supposed to be good.  While it is complete BS, its good for the Irish.  Even with a home win over Villanova, it’s very difficult to make a case for a 9-9 Notre Dame getting into the tournament.
Treading Water
Georgetown (14-12; 5-10) RPI 47

Big 12______________________________________________________
Locks
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Near Locks
Texas (19-8; 8-5) RPI 38 
Analysis: The Longhorns are close to punching their ticket after a win over Oklahoma. The nonconference wins are very good, but the computer numbers aren’t great.  Roadies at Ok State and Kansas are tough, but a home win over Baylor should do it.  They have wins over UCLA, Villanova and Oklahoma.
Bubble
Kansas State (17-8; 7-6) RPI 75
Case For: Wins vs. Missouri, at Texas, conference record
Case Against:  RPI, very weak nonconference schedule and performance
Analysis:  The Wildcats need to get to 10-6 in the conference considering the low RPI.  The Texas and Missouri wins are great, but there’s not much else to the resume.  Other than a win at Cleveland State, there is just a collection of cupcake home wins in the nonconference.  The resume needs some help, and they may need to look towards the conference tournament for some more good wins.   They cannot afford another conference loss.
Nebraska (16-10; 6-7) RPI 64
Case For: Wins over Missouri, vs. Texas, vs. Creighton
Case Against: RPI, loss to UMBC
Analysis:  The Cornhuskers are all but cooked after a home loss to Texas A&M.  They still need one more upset to help a resume that lacks any nonconference help besides a win over surging Creighton, and their one final is the Big 12 tournament.  They need three straight wins and a run to the Big 12 semis to have any chance.
Oklahoma State (18-9; 7-6) RPI 31
Case For: RPI, win vs. Siena
Case Against: Lack of marquee wins
Analysis:  The Cowboys are back above .500 in the conference and have a decent computer profile.  Their best nonconference work were wins vs. Siena and Rhode Island, and their best win in the conference is at Nebraska – and that’s not very impressive.  Hard to see how the computer numbers are so good, so the Pokes need to post at least a 9-7 in conference and maybe do some damage in the conference tournament.  Winning the next two before a trip to Oklahoma will help their case immensely.
Texas A&M (19-8; 6-7) RPI 39
Case For: Wins vs. LSU, Arizona, Texas
Case Against: Conference record, Bubble losses
Analysis: A&M got a gut check win at Nebraska to boost their hopes and mortally wound the Huskers.  The Aggies might need to win their last three conference games to have a shot.  They have a decent computer profile, but can claim just 6 top-100 wins - although four were against the top-50.  They have a couple nice nonconference wins over tournament bound LSU and contender Arizona, but have only two wins against their fellow Big 12 bubblers.
Treading Water
None

Big Ten__________________________________________________________
The Big Ten Bubble Round Robin begins this weekend, as Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin face off.  Winning two will get any of them a bid, but as it works out they will probably all split and continue to cause headaches for bubble watchers.
Locks
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Ohio State (18-8; 8-7) RPI 41
Case For: Wins vs. Butler, Purdue, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Conference record, losers of three straight
Analysis: The Buckeyes won a huge game over Penn State to solidify their spot in the imaginary field for this week.  They have good nonconference wins over Butler, Notre Dame and Miami – but this is not November anymore.  Only Butler is a tournament team right now.  They do have a few good conference wins, though.  As it stands, the Buckeyes did enough out of conference to withstand their current swoon.  A 10-8 mark will send them dancing, but 9-9 and bad Big Ten tournament performance may be inviting trouble.
Minnesota (19-8; 8-8) RPI 36
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Illinois, at Wisconsin
Case Against: Lost seven of last eleven
Analysis:  Minnesota lost at Illinois, but remains in the chase for a bid.  The computer numbers are falling, but they own enough good wins in the conference to merit a bid right now.  If they continue to slip, they could be inviting trouble.  Two more home games could prevent that, and both are bubble showdowns vs. Wisconsin and Michigan.  Its fairly simple for the Gophers - if they take care of business at home, they will be dancing.
Penn State (19-9; 8-7) RPI 61
Case For: wins at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, at Illinois
Case Against: RPI, nonconference wins lacking
Analysis: The Nittany Lions lost at Ohio State, but still have a good chance to post got a gigantic win at Illinois to move to the good side of the bubble.  The marquee wins and a good (10-8 or better) Big Ten mark will probably send them to the dance.  Will their soft nonconference schedule hurt them?  It has hit their RPI pretty hard, but the conference work has more than made up for it.  They have an outstanding 3-2 mark against the top-25 RPI.
Michigan (17-11; 8-8) RPI 56
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, UCLA, Illinois, Purdue
Case Against: Conference record, swept by Ohio State
Analysis:  The Wolverines beat Purdue in a game they had to win going into a tough two game road swing at desperate Bubblers Wisconsin and Minnesota.  There may be too many losses to ignore, and they can likely only afford one more league loss to still have a chance.  A .500 conference mark might be enough, as their great nonconference wins (UCLA, Duke) give them a bit of an edge over fellow bubblers, but they were swept by Ohio State.  They are an interesting test case for the new BS committee focus on “best team”.
Wisconsin (16-10; 8-7) RPI 29
Case For: RPI, win at Virginia Tech, vs. Illinois
Case Against: Six game midseason losing streak
Analysis:  The Badgers blew a huge lead at Michigan State and are now in some considerable trouble.  They have resurrected their season after a very bad six game midseason losing streak.  The RPI is very good, and they have enough good nonconference wins to possibly merit a bid if they get to 10-8 in conference.  Bubble-wise, they own a sweep of Penn State and a win at Michigan, which may put them at the top of the Big Ten bubble pecking order.  Wins over Michigan at home and Minnesota on the road are their chances to punch a ticket.  Without those, they are in trouble.
Treading Water
None 

Conference USA_________________________________
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
UAB (19-9; 9-4) RPI 40
Case For: RPI, win at Arizona
Case Against: 2-8 vs. top-100 RPI
Analysis:  The Blazers may have seen their at large chances slip away with a home loss to Memphis, which was their last chance to make a statement in the regular season.  The computer numbers are still ok, but there isn’t a compelling reason to give them a bid right now.  Perhaps with a run to the CUSA final and a heroic three-OT loss to Memphis may draw attention, but that is still a long shot.  They won at Arizona, but have just one more top-100 win (over UTEP) and a pretty bad 2-9 mark overall against those teams.  On the flip side, there are no bad losses on the slate, as all have come against the top 100 RPI. 
Treading Water
None

MVC_________________________________________________
Bubble
Creighton (24-6; 13-4) RPI 45
Case For:  Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, George Mason
Case Against:  Two sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Blue Jays have ripped through eight straight to emerge as a true at-large threat.  Running the table should get them a bid.  The RPI should go up if they keep winning, and if that happens it’s hard to see a MVC team with 25+ wins getting snubbed.  With the major conference teams stumbling towards the finish line, we think Creighton is just as deserving of an at-large as teams like Boston College and UNLV.  If the selection were today, they would probably be in.
Treading Water
None

Pac-10__________________________________________________
USC is in deep trouble, while Arizona has surged to near-lock status.  Five looks like a good bet, with six at most.
Locks
UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Arizona (18-10; 8-7) RPI 44
Case For: Good wins vs. Washington, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Kansas
Case Against: Road performance
Analysis:  So far, so bad for the road trip.  Arizona dropped another roadie, losing badly at Washington State.  Getting run over by Washington would cap a disastrous road trip and throw their at-large chances into serious jeopardy.  They probably have the nonconference wins and the decent conference performances to merit inclusion, but the away-from-home questions remain.  10-8 will get them in, but a road sweep will further highlight their bad performance away from home – their only road wins came at the Oregon schools.
USC (16-11; 7-8) RPI 47
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona St., vs. Cal
Case Against: Loss at Oregon State
Analysis:  The Trojans are in must-win territory for the remainder of the season after losing a tough one at Cal.  They have slipped to sixth in the Pac-10 pecking order but ending the season with homies against the two Oregon schools helps immensely.  There isn’t anything impressive in the nonconference slate.  Winning out in the regular season will put them in the mix but not very close to a bid.
Treading Water
None

Mountain West__________________________________________
Utah is locked up by virtue of a high RPI and as the leader of the conference.  San Diego State suffered one of the worst losses of the week for bubblers, getting a 26-point whooping at The Pit.
Locks
Utah
Near Locks
None
Bubble
BYU (20-6; 9-4) RPI 23
Case For: Win over Utah State, Sweep of SDSU, RPI
Case Against: Swept by UNLV
Analysis: The Cougars are in great shape after a big win at SDSU.  They have a good win over Utah State, and while they were swept by UNLV, they swept fellow bubbler SDSU.  They need the Utah game to give them a second top-25 RPI win and boost their chances. 
UNLV (20-7; 8-5) RPI 49
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, vs. Utah, at Louisville, sweep of BYU
Case Against:  Losses at TCU, at Colorado State
Analysis:  UNLV completed an impressive sweep of BYU to keep their at-large hopes alive.  The nonconference wins are great, but taking care of business in a pretty good league is their safest bet for a bid.  Two of the last three should do it, as 9-7 in the league will put them in serious trouble and probably on the outside of the field.  Right now they are probably right on the good side of the cut line.
San Diego State (16-8; 8-5) RPI 53
Case For: Wins vs. Utah, at UNLV
Case Against: Nonconference wins are lacking, destroyed at New Mexico
Analysis: The Aztecs fell at home to BYU and have put themselves in a tough spot.  They have pretty much lost their best argument – a strong MWC showing.  There is nothing in the nonconference performance that will help them, so MWC play is crucial.  They have to run the table in the regular season and cause some serious damage in the conference tournament if they want an at-large now.
New Mexico (18-10; 9-4) RPI 68
Case For: MWC record, wins vs. SDSU, BYU, UNLV
Case Against:  Nonconference play; All of the good wins are at home
Analysis: The Lobos are now three wins away from getting a long at-large look after beating TCU.  Three sub-100 losses hurt, as well as a lack of good nonconference wins.  Even though it would mean two more road wins and beating Utah, 12-4 in the MWC is a strong statement on a tournament resume.
Treading Water
None

SEC____________________________________________________
Locks
LSU
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Tennessee (17-10; 8-5) RPI 26
Case For: Wins vs. Siena, Marquette, South Carolina, Florida
Case Against:  Too many losses in SEC, swept by Kentucky
Analysis:  The Volunteers fall onto the bubble after yet another league loss.  They own one of the toughest schedules in the country, but have lost a number of games to good teams.  The computer numbers are there, but the league losses are piling up in a not-so-great conference.  They will be tested in their last three SEC games, so they need to avoid any semblance of a collapse.  8-8 in the SEC is not going to cut it, no matter what the SOS ends up being.
Florida (21-6; 8-4) RPI 41
Case For: Wins vs. Washington, NC State
Case Against: RPI, loss to Georgia
Analysis:  The Gators are barely on the good side of the bubble, but with a chance to solidify a bid down the stretch.  Either that or fall off the face of the earth.  The nonconference resume is OK with a win vs. Washington, but they need to avoid falling in the East standings.  The best conference win is at home vs. South Carolina, but they have shots at home vs. Kentucky and Tennessee to shore up the resume.  If they lose at LSU, they will need both games to have a chance.  A trip to Mississippi State is no picnic either.
South Carolina (20-6; 9-4) RPI 44
Case For: Sweep of Kentucky, win vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis:  The Gamecocks are in good shape, as their RPI has risen and the resume is starting to take shape.  They own wins over Florida and a sweep of fellow bubbler Kentucky.  SEC play is all they have, as there is nothing helpful in the nonconference department.  A home win over Tennessee could seal the deal, but they should aim for at least 11-5 to feel safe.  Barring a collapse, the Gamecocks should be dancing.
Kentucky (19-9; 8-5) RPI 63
Case For:  Wins vs. Florida, WVU, swept Tennessee
Case Against: RPI, loss to VMI
Analysis:  Kentucky was wept by fellow Bubbler South Carolina and now face a must win at home against LSU.  Wins over West Virginia and Kansas State were good out of conference, but eight of their wins are against sub-200 RPI teams.  The RPI may be low, but at least there are no bad losses outside of Big South leader VMI.  Treading Water
Mississippi State (16-11; 7-6) RPI 84

West Coast_________________________________________________
St. Mary’s is back in the mix after a huge win over Utah State.  If they take care of business up until the WCC final, the conference should send two teams dancing, although that is easier said than done.
Locks
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (20-5; 8-4) RPI 51
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Case Against: Loss at Santa Clara
Analysis:  The Gaels got a tremendous home win over Utah State and have jumped back into serious consideration.  If they win out to the WCC final and have Patty Mills back, they could be very well looking at a bid considering the committee will judge them on Mills being back.  The nonconference wins are looking pretty good with wins over three bubble teams, and the RPI is trending up. 
Treading Water
None

Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here.  Past history shows that teams below that threshold won’t get a decent look, fair or not. 
Locks
Butler
Near Locks
Utah State (25-3; 13-1) RPI 28
Analysis:  The St. Mary’s loss keeps the Aggies from lock status, but they would have to be in the field somewhere if the selection were today.  We just hope another loss doesn’t leave things up to chance with the committee, who has historically given teams like Utah State the shaft.  The win over Utah is their best nonconference offering, and 5-2 vs. the top-100 is nothing to be ashamed about either.
Bubble
Davidson (22-6; 16-2 SoCon) RPI 66
Case For: Win over West Virginia
Case Against: RPI, two SoCon losses
Analysis:  The Steph Curry injury likely has sent the Wildcats scrambling for the automatic bid.  A win over a wounded West Virginia team and a W against NC State are the highlights of a decent nonconference slate, but the two SoCon losses may have done in their at-large chances.  Winning out until the SoCon final is a necessity if they even want to sniff an at-large, and even then it may have to be paired with a collapse of several other bubblers.
Siena (22-6; 15-1 MAAC) RPI 24
Case For: Wins at St Joe’s, vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Buffalo, RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities may haunt them
Analysis:  Siena blasted Northern Iowa to further bolster their resume, but must win at Niagara to really solidify a bid.  Winning out until the MAAC final will get them into the dance.  The Saints have a great RPI, and have ripped through a good MAAC. They should get credit for scheduling tough games, even if they didn’t get any good wins out of them.  They are in good shape based on the failings of the major teams in the discussion.  Hopefully last year’s tourney win over Vanderbilt still resonates.
Niagara (22-7; 12-4 MAAC) RPI 63
Case For: 10 road wins
Case Against: Five sub-100 losses
Analysis:  The Purple Eagles dominated Illinois State ahead of their death match with Siena.  Their slim at-large hopes depend on beating Siena at home.  If they beat the Saints and get to the MAAC final, they will be sitting at 26 wins and have to at least be in the conversation.  If the committee values road wins, they have a chance.
Treading Water
Wisconsin-Green Bay (20-7; 12-4 Horizon) RPI 68; Western Kentucky (18-8; 13-3 Sun Belt) RPI 59