Games and RPI through Sunday night
ACC_________________________________________________
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
Near Locks
Boston College (20-9; 8-6) RPI 50
Analysis: A win over Florida State all but puts BC in the field. Getting one of the final two at NC State or at home against Georgia Tech should seal the deal with their quality wins. The Eagles have beaten Duke, Florida State and UNC, essentially wiping the negatives off the table (Harvard and St. Louis). It probably also gives them a cushion to go 8-8 in the conference and get a bid, even if the RPI is a little low for an at-large.
Bubble
Virginia Tech (17-11; 7-7) RPI 59
Case For: Wins at Wake Forest, at Clemson, at Miami, vs. BC
Case Against: No good nonconference wins
Analysis: The bad news for the Hokies? A loss to Duke probably puts them outside of the imaginary field. The good news? A win over UNC or Florida State will look pretty damn good considering their bubble competition. In a bubble world of negatives, their positives will stand out amongst the crowd with one more win. 8-8 might do it, as few Bubblers can claim the two marquee road wins the Hokies have. There is nothing but heartbreak in the nonconference schedule.
Maryland (17-10; 7-7) RPI 58
Case For: Win vs. Michigan State, vs. UNC
Case Against: Only two road wins, home loss to Morgan State
Analysis: The Terps won a tough one at NC State to keep their at-large dreams alive. They have Wake coming to College Park this week for a huge matchup. 8-8 is probably not enough with this profile, if it comes via a win at UVA and a home loss to Wake. There are some excellent items on the resume, but also a few ugly negatives. For all the hype about their upside, you have to consider the downside of the resume and realize they wouldn’t be looking so strong if they weren’t named “Maryland”. The Terps have blowout losses to Duke (by 41), Clemson (by 29), Georgetown and Gonzaga, as well as a head-scratcher against Morgan State.
Miami (16-10; 6-8) RPI 45
Case For: Wins vs. Wake Forest, Florida State, at Kentucky, at BC
Case Against: Acc record, close calls vs. top teams
Analysis: The race for 8-8 continues for the Canes, and they remain alive in the at-large conversation, providing they win their next two league games. They have nice wins at Kentucky and BC and a blowout of Wake Forest. A bad stretch of 6 losses in 7 games may haunt them, but considering their collection of good wins, 8-8 will give them a good shot at a bid.
Treading Water
None
Atlantic 10_____________________________________________________
Temple is cooked, but Rhode Island and Dayton have improved their chances over the weekend.
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
Dayton (24-5; 10-4) RPI 25
Analysis: The Flyers may be one win away from securing a bid, but must travel to Xavier and face a tough Duquesne team at home. Their two big wins (Marquette and Xavier) probably have them in the field right now. Can they survive any more losses down the stretch? Probably, but flaming out at the end of the A-10 regular season won’t help their chances. The computer numbers are strong, and its hard to see the Flyers being excluded from this bubble field.
Bubble
Rhode Island (22-8; 11-4) RPI 57
Case For: Wins over Dayton, Penn State
Case Against: Loss at Richmond, close calls
Analysis: The Rams are right in the mix after a huge road win at Duquesne. If they have a good A-10/A-14 tourney showing, they will have a fairly impressive resume and be right in the selection mix. 6-5 vs. the top-100 is not bad, but their best road win is at Northeastern. Bet they would love to have the Duke and Providence near-misses back, but they are one of the few Bubblers earning their way towards a bid.
Treading Water
Temple (17-11; 9-5) RPI 46
Big East_________________________________________________
With Syracuse locked up, most of the work at the top of the league is done. It comes down to Providence, Notre Dame and Cincinnati fighting for what might be just one spot in the dance. Providence is the clear leader for that right now.
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Providence (18-11; 10-7) RPI 71
Case For: Big East record, Cincinnati sweep, wins over URI, Syracuse and Pittsburgh
Case Against: RPI is low
Analysis: The Friars got one of the biggest wins of the bubble season by thoroughly beating #1 Pittsburgh. They have secured a winning league mark, but prior to beating Pitt most of their damage has come at the expense of the league’s weaklings. If they want to feel safe they need to win at Villanova, but without that one Big East tourney win might be enough for the Friars. The computer numbers are a concern, and hopefully they are not considered side-by-side with a Notre Dame team that flogged them at home.
Cincinnati (17-11; 8-8) RPI 56
Case For: Wins vs. WVU, at UNLV, vs. UAB, swept Georgetown,
Case Against: Swept by Providence
Analysis: The Bearcats got annihilated at Syracuse, where a competitive effort would have been excellent. With that stomping fresh in the committees minds, winning the next two are essential to their hopes. 10-8 will put them right on the cutline, and there are two wins on the schedule if they play like they are capable of playing. They have a few tiebreaking wins over fellow bubblers, but the Providence sweep may come back to bite them. Both conference and non-conference performances are average. The goal now is to avoid any bad losses.
Notre Dame (15-12; 7-9) RPI 68
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Texas
Case Against: RPI, 4-11 vs. top-100
Analysis: The Irish are in must-win territory for the rest of the regular season, and luckily there are two more homies before the conference tourney. They need to win those two and make a trip to the Big East semis to deserve a look. More than anyone, they could benefit from the expected emphasis on the committee selecting the “best teams” for the tournament, i.e. rewarding teams that are supposed to be good. While it is complete BS, its good for the Irish. Even with a home win over Villanova, it’s very difficult to make a case for a 9-9 Notre Dame getting into the tournament.
Treading Water
Georgetown (15-12; 6-10) RPI 40
Big 12______________________________________________________
Locks
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Near Locks
Texas (19-9; 8-6) RPI 38
Analysis: The Longhorns are close to punching their ticket, even with the loss at Ok-State. The nonconference wins are very good, but the computer numbers aren’t great. A roadie at Kansas will be tough, but a home win over Baylor should do it. They have wins over UCLA, Villanova and Oklahoma.
Bubble
Kansas State (19-9; 8-6) RPI 75
Case For: Wins vs. Missouri, at Texas, conference record
Case Against: RPI, very weak nonconference schedule and performance
Analysis: K-State knocked Nebraska off the bubble, but need the win at Ok-State to really state their case. The Wildcats need to get to 10-6 in the conference considering the low RPI. The Texas and Missouri wins are great, but there’s not much else to the resume. Other than a win at Cleveland State, there is just a collection of cupcake home wins in the nonconference. The resume needs some help, and they may need to look towards the conference tournament for some more good wins. They cannot afford another conference loss.
Oklahoma State (19-9; 8-6) RPI 31
Case For: RPI, win vs. Siena
Case Against: Lack of marquee wins
Analysis: The Cowboys are above .500 in the conference and have a decent computer profile. Their best nonconference work were wins vs. Siena and Rhode Island, and their best wins in the conference were vs. Texas and at Nebraska – and that’s not very impressive. Hard to see how the computer numbers are so good, so the Pokes might want to get to ten conference wins to avoid a closer look at the resume. Beating K-State at home is essential to keeping the momentum going.
Texas A&M (20-8; 7-7) RPI 34
Case For: Wins vs. LSU, Arizona, Texas
Case Against: Conference record, Bubble losses
Analysis: A&M is a major benefactor of the weak bubble, and are in a good spot considering they haven’t really beaten anyone in conference. The Aggies might need to win their last two conference games to have a shot. They have a decent computer profile, but can claim just 6 top-100 wins - although four were against the top-50. They have a couple nice nonconference wins over tournament bound LSU and contender Arizona, but have only two wins against their fellow Big 12 bubblers.
Treading Water
None
Big Ten__________________________________________________________
The Big Ten Bubble Round Robin concludes this week with Minnesota hosting both Michigan and Wisconsin. Wisconsin can absorb a loss, but Michigan or Minnesota cannot afford to drop another league game.
Locks
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Ohio State (18-9; 8-8) RPI 41
Case For: Wins vs. Butler, Purdue, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Conference record, losers of three straight
Analysis: Ouch - the Buckeyes were shitcanned at Purdue and are now just 8-8 in the conference and crawling across the finish line. They have good nonconference wins over Butler, Notre Dame and Miami – but this is not November anymore. Only Butler is a tournament team right now. They do have a few good conference wins, though. As it stands, the Buckeyes did enough out of conference to withstand their current swoon. A 10-8 mark will send them dancing, but 9-9 and bad Big Ten tournament performance may be inviting trouble.
Minnesota (19-8; 8-8) RPI 37
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Illinois, at Wisconsin
Case Against: Lost seven of last eleven
Analysis: Minnesota remains in the chase for a bid and have a crucial homestand vs. Bubblers Wisconsin and Michigan. They could be penalized for scheduling some real cupcakes at home. The computer numbers are ok, and the nonconference win over Louisville is very nice. If they continue to slip, they could be inviting trouble. Its fairly simple for the Gophers - if they take care of business at home, they will be dancing.
Penn State (20-9; 9-7) RPI 64
Case For: wins at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, at Illinois
Case Against: RPI, nonconference wins lacking
Analysis: The Nittany Lions have a good chance to post got a gigantic win vs. Illinois to complete a sweep and move permanently to the good side of the bubble. The marquee wins and a good (10-8 or better) Big Ten mark will probably send them to the dance. Will their soft nonconference schedule hurt them? It has hit their RPI pretty hard, but the conference work has more than made up for it. They have an outstanding 3-2 mark against the top-25 RPI. Win the next two, and they are dancing.
Michigan (17-12; 8-9) RPI 56
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, UCLA, Illinois, Purdue
Case Against: Conference record, swept by Ohio State
Analysis: The Wolverines lost in round one of the Big Ten Bubble Eliminator and now face a tough must-win at Minnesota. There may be too many losses to ignore, and they can likely only afford one more league loss to still have a chance. A .500 conference mark might be enough, as their great nonconference wins (UCLA, Duke) give them a bit of an edge over fellow bubblers, but they were swept by Ohio State. They are an interesting test case for the new BS committee focus on “best team”.
Wisconsin (17-10; 9-7) RPI 29
Case For: RPI, win at Virginia Tech, vs. Illinois, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Six game midseason losing streak
Analysis: The Badgers are in good shape after taking care of Michigan. They have resurrected their season after a very bad six game midseason losing streak. The RPI is very good, and they have enough good nonconference wins to possibly merit a bid if they get to 10-8 in conference. Bubble-wise, they own sweeps of Penn State and Michigan, which may put them at the top of the Big Ten bubble pecking order. Assuming they can beat Indiana at home, a win at Minnesota will punch their ticket.
Treading Water
None
Conference USA_________________________________
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
UAB (20-9; 10-4) RPI 40
Case For: RPI, win at Arizona
Case Against: 2-9 vs. top-100 RPI
Analysis: The Blazers may have seen their at large chances slip away with a home loss to Memphis, which was their last chance to make a statement in the regular season. The computer numbers are still ok, but there isn’t a compelling reason to give them a bid right now. Perhaps with a run to the CUSA final and a heroic three-OT loss to Memphis may draw attention, but that is still a long shot. They won at Arizona, but have just one more top-100 win (over UTEP) and a pretty bad 2-9 mark overall against those teams. On the flip side, there are no bad losses on the slate, as all have come against the top 100 RPI.
Treading Water
None
MVC_________________________________________________
Locks
None
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Creighton (25-6; 14-4) RPI 39
Case For: Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, George Mason
Case Against: Two sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Blue Jays have ripped through ten straight to emerge as a true at-large threat. Running the table until the MVC final should get them a bid. The RPI should go up if they keep winning, and if that happens it’s hard to see a MVC team with 27 wins getting snubbed. With the major conference teams stumbling towards the finish line, we think Creighton is just as deserving of an at-large as teams like Boston College and UNLV. If the selection were today, they would have to be in.
Treading Water
None
Pac-10__________________________________________________
It is looking like five at most for the Pac-10, and even that will be tough with Arizona collapsing.
Locks
UCLA, Washington, Arizona State
Near Locks
California (21-8; 10-6) RPI 34
Analysis: The Bears home loss to UCLA is tough when they are now staring at a difficult Arizona road trip. Winning one will seal the deal, and two losses could be absorbed, but will send the Bears a little too close to the cutline for comfort.
Bubble
Arizona (18-11; 8-8) RPI 49
Case For: Good wins vs. Washington, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Kansas
Case Against: Road performance
Analysis: The Wildcats were beaten by Washington to cap a disastrous road trip and throw their at-large chances into serious jeopardy. They probably have the nonconference wins and the decent conference performances to merit inclusion, but they have little to no margin for error and the away-from-home questions remain. 10-8 will get them in, but a road sweep will further highlight their bad performance away from home – their only road wins came at the Oregon schools.
Treading Water
USC (16-12; 7-9) RPI 59
Mountain West__________________________________________
BYU locked itself up after a win over Utah. New Mexico is still lurking, and seeking to take advantage by any slipups by UNLV or San Diego State.
Locks
Utah, BYU
Near Locks
None
Bubble
UNLV (20-8; 8-6) RPI 52
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, vs. Utah, at Louisville, sweep of BYU
Case Against: Losses at TCU, at Colorado State
Analysis: The Rebels are the consummate Bubble team. UNLV has an impressive sweep of BYU and great wins at Louisville and vs. Utah. The nonconference wins are great, but taking care of business in a pretty good league is their safest bet for a bid. They need these last two MWC games, as 9-7 in the league will put them in serious trouble and probably on the outside of the field. Right now they are probably right on the cut line. A virtual elimination game looms at SDSU.
San Diego State (17-8; 9-5) RPI 53
Case For: Wins vs. Utah, at UNLV
Case Against: Nonconference wins are lacking, destroyed at New Mexico
Analysis: The Aztecs can help their case immeasurably by winning their final two home games. They have pretty much lost their best argument – a strong MWC showing – for the time being. There is nothing in the nonconference performance that will help them, so MWC play is crucial. The UNLV game will decide their fate, and sweep could vault them ahead of UNLV in the pecking order.
New Mexico (19-10; 10-4) RPI 69
Case For: MWC record, wins vs. SDSU, BYU, UNLV
Case Against: Nonconference play; All of the good wins are at home
Analysis: The Lobos are now two wins away from getting a long at-large look after beating TCU. Three sub-100 losses hurt, as well as a lack of good nonconference wins. Even though it would mean beating Utah, 12-4 in the MWC is a strong statement on a tournament resume.
Treading Water
None
SEC____________________________________________________
Locks
LSU
Near Locks
Tennessee (18-10; 9-5) RPI 26
Analysis: The Volunteers completed a sweep of Florida and are within striking distance of a bid. A win at South Carolina will seal the deal, but also a home win over Alabama should send them dancing. They own one of the toughest schedules in the country, but have lost a number of games to good teams. The computer numbers are there, and they are no worse than second in the league pecking order.
Bubble
Florida (21-8; 8-6) RPI 42
Case For: Wins vs. Washington, NC State
Case Against: RPI, loss to Georgia, Swept by Tennessee
Analysis: The Gators were beat at home by Tennessee and are now on the outside looking in. They need to win the next two to have a good chance at a bid, considering the softness of their nonconference scheduling (seven wins vs. teams +285 in the RPI). The best conference win is at home vs. South Carolina, and they have a shot at home vs. Kentucky to shore up the resume, but first a trip to Mississippi State must be successful.
South Carolina (20-7; 9-5) RPI 44
Case For: Sweep of Kentucky, win vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: South Carolina lost at Vanderbilt and now must beat Tennessee if they want to ensure a bid. The Gamecocks are still in good shape, as their RPI has risen and the resume is starting to take shape. They own wins over Florida and a sweep of fellow bubbler Kentucky. SEC play is all they have, as there is nothing helpful in the nonconference department. A home win over Tennessee could seal the deal, but at least Kentucky and Florida are stumbling as well. Barring a collapse in the last two games, the Gamecocks should be dancing.
Kentucky (19-10; 8-6) RPI 66
Case For: Wins vs. Florida, WVU, swept Tennessee
Case Against: RPI, loss to VMI
Analysis: Kentucky is in bubble trouble after a heartbreaking home loss to LSU. They will beat Georgia, but a bubble showdown looms at Florida. That very well could be an elimination game unless the Wildcats do some major damage in the SEC tourney. Wins over West Virginia and Kansas State were good out of conference, but eight of their wins are against sub-200 RPI teams. The RPI may be low, but at least there are no bad losses outside of Big South leader VMI.
Treading Water
Mississippi State (16-11; 7-6) RPI 84
West Coast_________________________________________________
If St. Mary’s reaches the WCC final, they should be dancing.
Locks
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (22-5; 10-4) RPI 53
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Case Against: Loss at Santa Clara
Analysis: The Gaels closed out the regular season in style, and appear positioned to make a strong run at an at-large. If they win out to the WCC final and have Patty Mills in the lineup, they could be very well looking at a bid considering the committee will judge them on Mills being back. The nonconference wins are looking pretty good with wins over three bubble teams, and the RPI is trending up.
Treading Water
None
Others_________________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here. Past history shows that teams below that threshold won’t get a decent look, fair or not.
Locks
Butler
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Utah State (25-4; 13-2) RPI 30
Case For: Win over Utah, overall record, RPI
Case Against: Lost three of five, although none are very bad
Analysis: The Aggies tumble to the bubble after losing three of five games. Once a shoo-in for the dance, Utah State now can only point to one great win over Utah to plead their case. The RPI is still strong, and a trip to the WAC finals might be enough to send them dancing. We just hope another loss doesn’t leave things up to chance with the committee, who has historically given teams like Utah State the shaft. The win over Utah is their best nonconference offering, and 5-2 vs. the top-100 is nothing to be ashamed about either.
Davidson (23-6; 17-2 SoCon) RPI 67
Case For: Win over West Virginia
Case Against: RPI, two SoCon losses
Analysis: The Steph Curry injury likely has sent the Wildcats scrambling for the automatic bid. A win over a wounded West Virginia team and a W against NC State are the highlights of a decent nonconference slate, but the two SoCon losses may have done in their at-large chances. Winning out until the SoCon final is a necessity if they even want to sniff an at-large, and even then it may have to be paired with a collapse of several other bubblers. They should let Curry get to 100% and concentrate on the auto bid.
Siena (22-7; 15-2 MAAC) RPI 24
Case For: Wins at St Joe’s, vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Buffalo, RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities may haunt them
Analysis: Siena lost at Niagara, but are still very much alive in the at-large discussion. The problem for them is that they may not even be the favorite in the conference tourney. The Saints have a great RPI, and have ripped through a good MAAC. They should get credit for scheduling tough games, even if they didn’t get any good wins out of them. They are in good shape based on the failings of the major teams in the discussion. Hopefully last year’s tourney win over Vanderbilt still resonates.
Niagara (24-7; 14-4 MAAC) RPI 54
Case For: Road wins, win vs. Siena
Case Against: Five sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Purple Eagles ran MAAC leader and fellow bubbler Siena out of their gym to make their case for inclusion to the dance. Their chances may be slim, but the Siena win was an emphatic statement of how good this team is. If they get to the MAAC final, they will be sitting at 26 wins and have to at least be in the conversation. If the committee values road wins, they have a chance.
Treading Water
None
