Bubble watch moves to semi-daily as the at-large pool shrinks and many teams have their at-large hopes on the line this weekend. The biggest winners may be those that have stayed idle and out of the Bubble carnage (St. Mary's, Creighton). Updated through Wednesday's action:
ACC_________________________________________________
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
Near Locks
Boston College (20-10; 8-7) RPI 55
Analysis: A win over Georgia Tech all but puts BC in the field. It’s hard to see a team with three excellent wins being left out considering their competition. The Eagles have beaten Duke, Florida State and UNC, essentially wiping the negatives off the table (Harvard and St. Louis). It probably also gives them a cushion to go 8-8 in the conference and get a bid, even if the RPI is a little low for an at-large. All they have to do is avoid a flameout.
Bubble
Virginia Tech (17-12; 7-8) RPI 62
Case For: Wins at Wake Forest, at Clemson, at Miami, vs. BC
Case Against: No good nonconference wins
Analysis: The bad news for the Hokies? A loss to UNC probably puts them outside of the imaginary field. The good news? A win at Florida State will look pretty damn good considering their bubble competition. In a bubble world of negatives, their positives will stand out amongst the crowd with one more win. 8-8 might do it, as few Bubblers can claim the two marquee road wins the Hokies have. There is nothing but heartbreak in the nonconference schedule.
Maryland (18-11; 7-8) RPI 58
Case For: Win vs. Michigan State, vs. UNC
Case Against: Only two road wins, home loss to Morgan State
Analysis: The Terps lost at home to Wake, and face a virtual no-win game at UVA this weekend. 8-8 is probably not enough with this profile. It’s looking as if they will face a tough opening round ACC tourney game (vs. VT, NC State or Miami), which would be a must-win if they have any chance at an at-large. There are some excellent items on the resume, but also a few ugly negatives. For all the hype about their upside, you have to consider the downside of the resume and realize they wouldn’t be looking so strong if they weren’t named “Maryland”. The Terps have blowout losses to Duke (by 41), Clemson (by 29), Georgetown and Gonzaga, as well as a head-scratcher against Morgan State.
Miami (16-11; 6-9) RPI 54
Case For: Wins vs. Wake Forest, Florida State, at Kentucky, at BC
Case Against: Acc record, close calls vs. top teams
Analysis: Miami is all but cooked after losing at Georgia Tech. They likely need their next four games (which would include a trip to the ACC finals) to really have a chance at an at-large now. They have nice wins at Kentucky and BC and a blowout of Wake Forest. A bad stretch of 6 losses in 7 games will haunt them, but considering their collection of good wins, an ACC tourney run may get them a shot at a bid.
Treading Water
None
Atlantic 10_________________________________________
Temple is cooked, but Rhode Island and Dayton have improved their chances over the weekend.
Locks
Xavier
Near Locks
Dayton (24-6; 10-5) RPI 27
Analysis: The Flyers may be one win away from securing a bid, but must face a tough Duquesne team at home and avoid disaster at the A-10 tournament. Their two big wins (Marquette and Xavier) probably have them in the field right now. Can they survive any more losses down the stretch? Probably, but flaming out at the end of the A-10 regular season won’t help their chances. The computer numbers are strong, and it’s hard to see the Flyers being excluded from this Bubble field.
Bubble
Rhode Island (22-8; 11-4) RPI 48
Case For: Wins over Dayton, Penn State
Case Against: Loss at Richmond, close calls
Analysis: The Rams are right in the mix after a huge road win at Duquesne. If they have a good A-10/A-14 tourney showing, they will have a fairly impressive resume and be right in the selection mix. 6-5 vs. the top-100 is not bad, but their best road win is at Northeastern. Bet they would love to have the Duke and Providence near misses back, but they are one of the few Bubblers earning their way towards a bid.
Treading Water
Temple (17-11; 9-5) RPI 46
Big East_________________________________________________
Notre Dame, Georgetown and Cincinnati are now cooked after some terrible losses. Georgetown cannot get in at 7-11 in the Big East, and there is no reason to include an 8-10 Notre Dame. Cincinnati drops off the face of the earth after losing to South Florida.
Locks
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Providence (18-12; 10-8) RPI 69
Case For: Big East record, Cincinnati sweep, wins over URI, Syracuse and Pittsburgh
Case Against: RPI is low, 6-12 vs. top-100
Analysis: Providence lost big at Villanova, but are still in the hunt. They got one of the biggest wins of the bubble season by thoroughly beating Pittsburgh. They have secured a winning league mark, but prior to beating Pitt most of their damage has come at the expense of the league’s weaklings. With all the carnage around them, one Big East tourney win might be enough for the Friars. The computer numbers are a concern, but they have a potential tiebreaking win over Rhode Island in their back pocket. The 6-12 mark against the top-100 is devastating.
Treading Water
Cincinnati (17-12; 8-9) RPI 61; Notre Dame (15-13; 7-10) RPI 74
Big 12______________________________________________________
Texas is now locked up after beating Baylor. Their four top-25 wins are enough to punch their ticket.
Locks
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Oklahoma State (20-9; 9-6) RPI 25
Case For: RPI, wins vs. Siena, Texas, Conference record
Case Against: Lack of marquee wins
Analysis: The Cowboys are in great shape after beating K-State at home. Their best nonconference work were wins vs. Siena and Rhode Island, and their best wins in the conference were vs. Texas and at Nebraska – and that’s not very impressive. They have an excellent computer profile, but are 8-9 vs. the RPI top-100. A win at Oklahoma will punch their ticket, but the more important task is a decent conference tourney showing. Right now, they can breathe a little easier.
Texas A&M (21-8; 8-7) RPI 35
Case For: Wins vs. LSU, Arizona, Texas
Case Against: Conference record, Bubble losses
Analysis: A&M is a major benefactor of the weak bubble, and are in a good spot considering they haven’t really beaten anyone in conference. The Aggies might need the Missouri game to be sure of themselves. They have a decent computer profile, but can claim just 7 top-100 wins - although four were against the top-50. They have a couple nice nonconference wins over tournament bound LSU and contender Arizona, but have only two wins against their fellow Big 12 bubblers. If they beat Missouri, its tough to see them being left out.
Kansas State (19-10; 8-7) RPI 76
Case For: Wins vs. Missouri, at Texas
Case Against: RPI, very weak nonconference schedule and performance
Analysis: K-State is all but done as an at-large candidate unless they make a run in the conference tournament. The Texas and Missouri wins are great, but there’s not much else to the resume. Other than a win at Cleveland State, there is just a collection of cupcake home wins in the nonconference. The resume needs some help, and they need to look towards the conference tournament for some more good wins. A win over Colorado will ensure a winning conference record, but will barely help their cause.
Treading Water
None
Big Ten_____________________________________________
At least six teams should be dancing, and the number could go as high as eight.
Locks
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Near Locks
Ohio State (19-9; 9-8) RPI 40
Case For: Wins vs. Butler, Purdue, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Conference record
Analysis: A home win over Northwestern is all that is needed to lock up a bid for the Buckeyes. They have good nonconference wins over Butler, Notre Dame and Miami – but this is not November anymore. Only Butler is a tournament team right now. They do have a few good conference wins, though. As it stands, the Buckeyes did enough out of conference to withstand their current swoon. A 10-8 mark will send them dancing, but 9-9 and bad Big Ten tournament performance may be inviting trouble.
Bubble
Minnesota (20-8; 9-8) RPI 32
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Illinois, Ohio State, Sweep of Wisconsin
Case Against: Lost seven of last twelve
Analysis: Minnesota got a crucial win over Wisconsin, completing a sweep and setting up a contest vs. Michigan that could send them dancing. They have a good 8-8 record vs. the top-100 RPI, but they could be penalized for scheduling some real cupcakes at home. The computer numbers are good, and the nonconference win over Louisville is very nice. If they beat Michigan Saturday, they should be dancing.
Penn State (20-9; 9-7) RPI 66
Case For: wins at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, at Illinois
Case Against: RPI, nonconference wins lacking
Analysis: The Nittany Lions have a good chance to post got a gigantic win vs. Illinois to complete a sweep and move permanently to the good side of the bubble. The marquee wins and a good (10-8 or better) Big Ten mark will probably send them to the dance. Will their soft nonconference schedule hurt them? It has hit their RPI pretty hard, but the conference work has more than made up for it. They have an outstanding 3-2 mark against the top-25 RPI. Win the next two, and they are dancing.
Michigan (17-12; 8-9) RPI 47
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, UCLA, Illinois, Purdue
Case Against: Conference record, swept by Ohio State
Analysis: The Wolverines lost in round one of the Big Ten Bubble Eliminator and now face a tough must-win at Minnesota. There may be too many losses to ignore. A .500 conference mark might be enough, as their great nonconference wins (UCLA, Duke) give them a bit of an edge over fellow bubblers, but they were swept by Ohio State. They are an interesting test case for the new BS committee focus on “best team”.
Wisconsin (17-11; 9-8) RPI 31
Case For: RPI, win at Virginia Tech, vs. Illinois, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Six game midseason losing streak, swept by Minnesota
Analysis: The Badgers lost at Minnesota. They have resurrected their season after a very bad six game midseason losing streak. The RPI is very good, and they have enough good nonconference wins to possibly merit a bid if they get to 10-8 in conference. Bubble-wise, they own sweeps of Penn State and Michigan, which may put them at the top of the Big Ten bubble pecking order. Assuming they can beat Indiana at home, a win at Minnesota will punch their ticket.
Treading Water
Northwestern (17-12; 8-9) RPI 70
Conference USA_________________________________
Its looking like only Memphis this year for CUSA, as UAB falls off the Bubble after getting crushed at Tulsa.
Locks
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
UAB (20-9; 10-4) RPI 43
MVC_________________________________________________
Locks
None
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Creighton (25-6; 14-4) RPI 39
Case For: Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, George Mason
Case Against: Two sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Blue Jays have ripped through ten straight to emerge as a true at-large threat. Running the table until the MVC final should get them a bid. The RPI should go up if they keep winning, and if that happens it’s hard to see a MVC team with 27 wins getting snubbed. With the major conference teams stumbling towards the finish line, we think Creighton is just as deserving of an at-large as teams like Boston College and UNLV. If the selection were today, they would have to be in.
Treading Water
None
Pac-10__________________________________________________
It is looking like five at most for the Pac-10, and even that will be tough with Arizona collapsing.
Locks
UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Arizona (18-12; 8-9) RPI 45
Case For: Good wins vs. Washington, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Kansas
Case Against: Road performance
Analysis: The Wildcats were beaten by Washington to cap a disastrous road trip and throw their at-large chances into serious jeopardy. They probably have the nonconference wins and the decent conference performances to merit inclusion, but they have little to no margin for error and the away-from-home questions remain. 10-8 will get them in, but the road sweep further highlights their bad performance away from home – their only road wins came at the Oregon schools.
Treading Water
USC (17-12; 8-9) RPI 56
Mountain West__________________________________________
With Utah and BYU locked up, and a showdown looming between SDSU and UNLV, it is a safe bet that at least three MWC teams will be dancing. New Mexico is also strongly in the mix, but they need to keep winning.
Locks
Utah, BYU
Near Locks
None
Bubble
UNLV (21-8; 9-6) RPI 50
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, vs. Utah, at Louisville, sweep of BYU
Case Against: Losses at TCU, at Colorado State
Analysis: UNLV barely got past league doormat Air Force to set up their huge Bubble showdown at SDSU. The Rebels are the consummate Bubble team. UNLV has an impressive sweep of BYU and great wins at Louisville and vs. Utah. The nonconference wins are great, but taking care of business in a pretty good league is their safest bet for a bid. 9-7 in the league will put them in serious trouble, and a quick league tourney exit could send them to the NIT. Right now they are probably right on good side of the cut line.
San Diego State (18-8; 10-5) RPI 46
Case For: Wins vs. Utah, at UNLV
Case Against: Nonconference wins are lacking, destroyed at New Mexico
Analysis: The Aztecs beat Colorado State to set up a crucial showdown with UNLV. Completing the sweep will be nice, but they don’t have nearly the resume UNLV does out of conference (or even in conference). There is nothing in the nonconference performance that will help them, so MWC play is crucial. The UNLV game will decide their fate, but it won’t punch their ticket.
New Mexico (20-10; 11-4) RPI 63
Case For: MWC record, wins vs. SDSU, BYU, UNLV, Utah
Case Against: Nonconference play; All of the good wins are at home
Analysis: The Lobos are now one win away from getting a long at-large look after a huge win over Utah. Three sub-100 losses hurt, as well as a lack of good nonconference wins. They have now won 7 of their past 8 and beaten each of the top tier teams at least once, which is especially helpful. 12-4 in the MWC is a strong statement on a tournament resume. They need to beat Wyoming on the road to keep their at-large chances alive – considering a win there would be their best road win of the season.
Treading Water
None
SEC____________________________________________________
Locks
LSU, Tennessee
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Florida (21-9; 8-7) RPI 53
Case For: Wins vs. Washington, NC State
Case Against: RPI, loss to Georgia, Swept by Tennessee
Analysis: The Gators fell to 8-7 in conference after getting blown out at Mississippi State. They are in serious danger of missing the tournament due to their conference performance and considering the softness of their nonconference scheduling (seven wins vs. teams +285 in the RPI). The best conference win is at home vs. South Carolina, and the Washington win was very good. They need the Kentucky game and at least two more in the SEC tournament to have any chance. Beside the average conference performance, Florida did not exactly challenge themselves in scheduling, and it may very well cost them a bid.
South Carolina (20-7; 9-5) RPI 41
Case For: Sweep of Kentucky, win vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston
Analysis: South Carolina lost at Vanderbilt and now must beat Tennessee if they want to ensure a bid. The Gamecocks are still in good shape, as their RPI has risen and the resume is starting to take shape. They own wins over Florida and a sweep of fellow bubbler Kentucky. SEC play is all they have, as there is nothing helpful in the nonconference department. A home win over Tennessee could seal the deal, but at least Kentucky and Florida are stumbling as well. Barring a collapse in the last two games, the Gamecocks should be dancing.
Kentucky (19-11; 8-7) RPI 78
Case For: Wins vs. Florida, WVU, swept Tennessee
Case Against: RPI, home losses to VMI and Georgia
Analysis: Kentucky suffered a fatal home loss to a bad Georgia team, all but ending their at-large hopes. They could get some life by completing a sweep of Florida, but will need two or three wins on top of that to get back in the mix. Wins over West Virginia and Kansas State were good out of conference, but eight of their wins are against sub-200 RPI teams. The RPI is also low.
Auburn (19-10; 9-6) RPI 72
Case For: Win vs. Tennessee, SEC record
Case Against: Weak profile, RPI, home loss to Mercer
Analysis: It may seem crazy, but Auburn is in the discussion after reeling off three straight top-100 W’s. 10-6 in a major conference isn’t easy, no matter how bad the SEC is. They need to beat LSU and get two or more games in the SEC tournament to really have a shot, but in a Bubble environment like this who knows? They are just 4-9 vs. the top-100 and did nothing of note out of conference.
Treading Water
None
West Coast_________________________________________________
If St. Mary’s reaches the WCC final, they should be dancing.
Locks
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (22-5; 10-4) RPI 49
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Case Against: Loss at Santa Clara
Analysis: The Gaels closed out the regular season in style, and appear positioned to make a strong run at an at-large. If they win out to the WCC final and have Patty Mills in the lineup, they could be very well looking at a bid considering the committee will judge them on Mills being back. The nonconference wins are looking pretty good with wins over three bubble teams, and the RPI is trending up.
Treading Water
None
Others__________________________________________________
Teams need at least an RPI in the top 100 to be considered here. Past history shows that teams below that threshold won’t get a decent look, fair or not.
Locks
Butler
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Utah State (25-4; 13-2) RPI 28
Case For: Win over Utah, overall record, RPI
Case Against: Lost three of five, although none are very bad
Analysis: The Aggies tumble to the bubble after losing three of five games. Once a shoo-in for the dance, Utah State now can only point to one great win over Utah to plead their case. The RPI is still strong, and a trip to the WAC finals might be enough to send them dancing. We just hope another loss doesn’t leave things up to chance with the committee, who has historically given teams like Utah State the shaft. The win over Utah is their best nonconference offering, and 5-4 vs. the top-100 is nothing to be ashamed about either.
Davidson (24-6; 18-2 SoCon) RPI 67
Case For: Win over West Virginia
Case Against: RPI, two SoCon losses
Analysis: The Stephen Curry injury likely has sent the Wildcats scrambling for the automatic bid. A win over a wounded West Virginia team and a W against NC State are the highlights of a decent nonconference slate, but the two SoCon losses may have done in their at-large chances. Winning out until the SoCon final is a necessity if they even want to sniff an at-large, and even then it may have to be paired with a collapse of several other bubblers. They should let Curry get to 100% and concentrate on the auto bid.
Siena (23-7; 16-2 MAAC) RPI 27
Case For: Wins at St Joe’s, vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Buffalo, RPI
Case Against: Missed Opportunities may haunt them
Analysis: Siena lost at Niagara, but are still very much alive in the at-large discussion. The problem for them is that they may not even be the favorite in the conference tourney. The Saints have a great RPI, and have ripped through a good MAAC. They should get credit for scheduling tough games, even if they didn’t get any good wins out of them. They are in good shape based on the failings of the major teams in the discussion. Hopefully last year’s tourney win over Vanderbilt still resonates.
Niagara (24-7; 14-4 MAAC) RPI 57
Case For: Road wins, win vs. Siena
Case Against: Five sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Purple Eagles ran MAAC leader and fellow bubbler Siena out of their gym to make their case for inclusion to the dance. Their chances may be slim, but the Siena win was an emphatic statement of how good this team is. If they get to the MAAC final, they will be sitting at 26 wins and have to at least be in the conversation. If the committee values road wins, they have a chance.
Treading Water
Western Kentucky (20-8; 15-3 Sun Belt) RPI 52; George Mason (20-9; 13-5 CAA) RPI 51
