Cleveland State spoiled the night of many Bubblers, but outside of surprise winners of BCS tournaments the Bubble only has to cheer for Utah State to win the WAC tournament (although its on Nevada's home floor) and Dayton or Xavier to win the A-10/A-14. Either that or win some games and actually earn a bid. TV-watching time for major conference Bubblers is over, as most start their conference tournaments today. Updates to come throughout the day.
Dancing (56): (*=Automatic Bid): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Xavier, Dayton, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Memphis, Northern Iowa (MVC)*, UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California, Utah, BYU, LSU, Tennessee, Gonzaga (WCC)*, Butler, Cleveland State (Horizon)*, Cornell (Ivy)*, Morehead State (OVC)*, Radford (Big South)*, East Tennessee State (A-Sun)*, America East*, VCU (CAA)*, Siena (MAAC)*, Northeast*, Patriot*, Chattanooga (SoCon)*, North Dakota State (Summit)*, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)*, MEAC*, SWAC*, MAC*, Big West*, Southland*, WAC*, Big Sky*
Near Locks (3): Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Bids Remaining (6)
Bubble (19): Maryland, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Utah State, Niagara, St. Mary’s, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona, Creighton, Minnesota, Penn State, Kansas State, Providence, Davidson
ACC_________________________________________________
Dancing
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Virginia Tech (17-13; 7-9) RPI 59
Case For: Wins at Wake Forest, at Clemson, at Miami, vs. BC
Case Against: No good nonconference wins
Analysis: The Hokies, along with Miami and Maryland, need to do something special in the ACC tournament to get back in the discussion. At least two wins, and possibly three, are needed. They faltered down the stretch, but own road wins at Clemson, at Miami and at Wake Forest. Those could come in handy in a "best team" scenario. Say all you want about Penn State and New Mexico's conference record - but is there any chance they go to Wake Forest and Clemson and win? No chance. The RPI is low and there is nothing helpful out of conference, so only a deep tourney run can ressurrect their chances. The matchup vs. Miami is an elimination game.
Maryland (18-12; 7-9) RPI 68
Case For: Win vs. Michigan State, vs. UNC
Case Against: Only two road wins, home loss to Morgan State
Analysis: The Terps lost at UVA and can pretty much plan for the NIT. As we say every year about this time - you cant spell Terrapin without "N-I-T". It’s looking as if they have to make a run to the ACC finals to have any shot at an at-large. There are some excellent items on the resume, but also a few ugly negatives. For all the hype about their upside, you have to consider the downside of the resume and realize they wouldn’t be looking so strong if they weren’t named “Maryland”. The Terps have blowout losses to Duke (by 41), Clemson (by 29), Georgetown and Gonzaga, as well as a head-scratcher against Morgan State.
Miami (17-11; 7-9) RPI 54
Case For: Wins vs. Wake Forest, Florida State, at Kentucky, at BC
Case Against: Acc record, close calls vs. top teams
Analysis: Miami still has a faint pulse after taking care of NC State at home. They likely need their next three games (which would include a trip to the ACC finals) to really have a chance at an at-large now. They have nice wins at Kentucky and BC and a blowout of Wake Forest. A bad stretch of 6 losses in 7 games will haunt them, but considering their collection of good wins, an ACC tourney run may get them a shot at a bid.
Treading Water
None
Atlantic 10_________________________________________
Dancing
Xavier, Dayton
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Temple (18-11; 10-5) RPI 39; Rhode Island (22-9; 11-5) RPI 64
Big East_________________________________________________
Only Providence’s fate is undecided at this point. There is a slim chance that Notre Dame goes on a run, but they would need something spectacular to be considered.
Dancing
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Providence (19-12; 11-8) RPI 72
Case For: Big East record, wins over URI, Syracuse and Pittsburgh
Case Against: RPI is low, 6-12 vs. top-100
Analysis: Providence ran its record to 11-8 in the Big East at the expense of DePaul, which is essentially no help to the Friar's cause. A third win over Cincinnati would have nice, but now Providence gets a win that barely counts and has to face Louisville in the quarterfinals. They need a win there to make a jump in the Bubble pecking order, since the computer numbers are trending well behind their competitors. They have one of the biggest wins of the bubble season by thoroughly beating Pittsburgh. The Cincinnati sweep looked a lot better two weeks ago, as the Bearcats are no longer NCAA contenders. They have secured a winning league mark, but prior to beating Pitt most of their damage has come at the expense of the league’s weaklings. While the computer numbers are a concern, but they have a potential tiebreaking win over Rhode Island in their back pocket. The 6-12 mark against the top-100 is devastating.
Treading Water
Notre Dame (17-13; 9-10) RPI 73
Big 12______________________________________________________
Dancing
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Near Locks
Oklahoma State (20-10; 9-7) RPI 25
Analysis: The Cowboys are still in great shape, even with the competitive loss at Oklahoma. Their best nonconference work were wins vs. Siena and Rhode Island, and their best wins in the conference were vs. Texas and at Nebraska – and that’s not very impressive. They have an excellent computer profile, but are 8-9 vs. the RPI top-100. A win at Oklahoma would have punched their ticket, but the more important task is a decent conference tourney showing.
Bubble
Kansas State (20-10; 9-7) RPI 77
Case For: Wins vs. Missouri, Texas A&M, at Texas
Case Against: RPI, very weak nonconference schedule and performance
Analysis: K-State is all but done as an at-large candidate unless they make a run in the conference tournament. The Texas and Missouri wins are great, but there’s not much else to the resume. Other than a win at Cleveland State, there is just a collection of cupcake home wins in the nonconference. The resume needs some help, and they need to look towards the conference tournament for some more good wins. A win over Colorado ensured a winning conference record, but it will barely help their cause.
Treading Water
None
Big Ten_____________________________________________
Dancing
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Near Locks
Wisconsin (18-11; 10-8) RPI 38
Case For: RPI, win at Virginia Tech, vs. Illinois, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Six game midseason losing streak, swept by Minnesota
Analysis: The Badgers beat Indiana and now sport a good 10-8 Big Ten record. They have resurrected their season after a very bad six game midseason losing streak. The RPI is very good, and they have enough good nonconference wins to possibly merit a bid. Bubble-wise, they own sweeps of Penn State and Michigan, which may put them near the top of the Big Ten bubble pecking order. One more win, however it happens, could send them dancing. They played 13 games against the top-50, but won just four of them. Sweeps of Michigan and Penn State places them above both teams in the pecking order.
Michigan (18-12; 9-9) RPI 42
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, UCLA, Illinois, Purdue, Sweep of Minnesota
Case Against: Conference record, swept by Ohio State and Wisconsin
Analysis: The Wolverines got a gigantic road win at Minnesota to complete a sweep and perhaps send them dancing. But as we have learned many times, don’t count on Michigan just yet, as the Big Ten tourney could allow them to stub their toe yet again. Their .500 conference mark might be enough, as their great nonconference wins (UCLA, Duke) give them a bit of an edge over fellow bubblers, but they were swept by Ohio State. They are an interesting test case for the new BS committee focus on “best team”.
Bubble
Minnesota (20-9; 9-9) RPI 41
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Illinois, Ohio State, Sweep of Wisconsin
Case Against: 5-8 in last thirteen games
Analysis: Minnesota got a crucial win over Wisconsin earlier in the week, but blew a big lead at home and lost to Michigan. Now the Gophers need to do some work at the conference tourney to get a bid. Two wins might do it, but one will at least put them back in the thick of the Bubble race. They have a good 8-9 record vs. the top-100 RPI, but they could be penalized for scheduling some real cupcakes at home. The computer numbers are good, and the nonconference win over Louisville is very nice.
Penn State (21-10; 10-8) RPI 61
Case For: wins at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, sweep of Illinois
Case Against: RPI, nonconference wins lacking
Analysis: The Nittany Lions lost at Iowa to end the party started after the win over Illinois. Luckily, losing to the Hawkeyes was their first sub-100 loss of the year. For all the talk of them being in right now, where do losses to Iowa and in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament put them? Maybe they shouldn’t read their press clippings just yet. The marquee wins and good Big Ten mark will probably send them to the dance. Will their soft nonconference schedule hurt them? It has hit their RPI pretty hard, but the conference work has more than made up for it. They have an outstanding 4-2 mark against the top-25 RPI. A bad performance in the Big Ten tournament may cost them a bid that was all but assured 72 hours ago.
Treading Water
None
Conference USA_________________________________
Dancing
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Tulsa (21-9; 12-4) RPI 61; UAB (21-10; 11-5) RPI 44
MVC_________________________________________________
Dancing
Northern Iowa
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Creighton (26-7; 15-5) RPI 40
Case For: Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, George Mason, 11 straight wins before loss in MVC semis
Case Against: Two sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Blue Jays got blown out in the MVC semifinals by Illinois State, and now must wait a very long eight days to learn their fate. 26 wins is usually a ticket to the dance, but Creighton ended the season in disastrous fashion. They have an outstanding 9-5 record vs. the top-100, but have a couple of bad and blowout losses. They are still in OK shape, but must wait to see how the fellow Bubblers fare in the next week. If there are a few surprise major conference auto bids, it will make them sweat it out next Sunday. If the selection were today, they would probably be in, but the selection is more than a week away.
Treading Water
None
Pac-10__________________________________________________
Dancing
UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Arizona (19-12; 9-9) RPI 53
Case For: Good wins vs. Washington, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Kansas
Case Against: Road performance
Analysis: The Wildcats are in deep Bubble trouble after losing four of five to finish the regular season. Their best asset is their tradition and name recognition. For the second straight year, that could slip them into the tournament undeservedly. They do have a .500 conference record, but they need to do some damage in the Pac-10 tournament to get back on the good side of the Bubble. That means a trip to the semi-finals or better. They probably have the nonconference wins and the decent conference performance to stay in the discussion, but they have no margin for error and the away-from-home questions remain. Their only road wins came at the Oregon schools.
Treading Water
USC (18-12; 9-9) RPI 60
Mountain West__________________________________________
Round Three of the SDSU-UNLV bloodbath will occur in the MWC Quarterfinals. SDSU may be able to survive a loss, but UNLV cannot.
Dancing
Utah, BYU
Near Locks
None
Bubble
UNLV (21-9; 9-7) RPI 56
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, vs. Utah, at Louisville, sweep of BYU
Case Against: Losses at TCU, at Colorado State
Analysis: UNLV was beaten again by nemesis SDSU and now face the prospect of playing the Aztecs a third time in the MWC quarterfinals. They can't afford a third loss, and they probably would need to advance to the finals to get back in the field. The Rebels are the consummate Bubble team. UNLV has an impressive sweep of BYU and great wins at Louisville and vs. Utah. The nonconference wins are great, but taking care of business in a pretty good league was their safest bet for a bid. 9-7 in the league puts them in serious trouble, and a quick league tourney exit will send them to the NIT.
San Diego State (19-8; 11-5) RPI 44
Case For: Wins vs. Utah, sweep UNLV
Case Against: Nonconference wins are lacking, destroyed at New Mexico, 1-5 vs. top-50
Analysis: The Aztecs completed a sweep of UNLV to set up a crucial showdown with - UNLV. A third win over the Rebs will put them in great shape and send UNLV to the NIT. Completing the sweep was nice, but they don’t have nearly the resume UNLV does out of conference (or even in conference). There is nothing in the nonconference performance that will help them, so MWC play is crucial. The UNLV game will (once again) decide their fate, but it won’t fully punch their ticket.
New Mexico (21-10; 12-4) RPI 58
Case For: MWC record, wins vs. SDSU, BYU, UNLV, Utah
Case Against: Nonconference play; All of the good wins are at home
Analysis: The Lobos completed an impressive regular season with a lifesaving win at Wyoming. Three sub-100 losses hurt, as well as a lack of good nonconference wins. They have now won 8 of their past 9 and beaten each of the top tier teams at least once, which is especially helpful. 12-4 in the MWC is a strong statement on a tournament resume. They did have trouble on the road this year, but are 7-7 vs. the top-100, and the Wyoming win sets them up nicely for the MWC tournament.
Treading Water
None
SEC____________________________________________________
Dancing
LSU, Tennessee
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Florida (22-9; 9-7) RPI 48
Case For: Wins vs. Washington, NC State
Case Against: RPI, loss to Georgia, Swept by Tennessee
Analysis: The Gators kept their hopes alive after eliminating Kentucky from consideration. They are still in serious danger of missing the tournament due to their conference performance and considering the softness of their nonconference scheduling (seven wins vs. teams +285 in the RPI). The best conference win is at home vs. South Carolina, and the Washington win was very good. They need at least two more wins in the SEC tournament to have any chance. Beside the average conference performance, Florida did not exactly challenge themselves in scheduling, and it may very well cost them a bid.
South Carolina (21-8; 10-6) RPI 50
Case For: Sweep of Kentucky, win vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston, 1-5 vs. top-50
Analysis: South Carolina took care of Georgia, but still must make some noise in the conference tournament to feel good about their chances. The Gamecocks are still in the running, as they own wins over Florida and a sweep of fellow bubbler Kentucky. They are a pretty good 7-7 vs. the top-100, but they still don’t have any marquee wins. Are a few good wins in a pretty bad major conference enough? SEC play is all they have, as there is nothing helpful in the nonconference department.
Auburn (20-10; 10-6) RPI 65
Case For: Win vs. Tennessee, LSU, SEC record
Case Against: Weak profile, RPI, home loss to Mercer
Analysis: Auburn is in the discussion after beating LSU and reeling off four straight top-100 W’s. 10-6 in a major conference isn’t easy, no matter how bad the SEC is. They still need two or more games in the SEC tournament to really have a shot, but in a Bubble environment like this who knows? The Tigers are fully capable of winning the SEC tournament and end all doubt. They are just 5-9 vs. the top-100 and did nothing of note out of conference.
Treading Water
None
West Coast_________________________________________________
If St. Mary’s reaches the WCC final, they should be dancing.
Dancing
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (23-6; 11-5) RPI 46
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Case Against: Loss at Santa Clara
Analysis: It was thought prior to last night that the Gaels could survive a loss in the WCC final - but it was borderline unthinkable that they would lose by 25 in a game that wasn't even as close as the score might indicate. On top of that, Patty Mills was awful and is obviously not healthy, which was their other assumed trump card. They also took an odd step to schedule a nonconference game vs. Eastern Washington after the WCC tourney is over, but after Monday's performance they might have to win by fifty to erase the bad memories. Still, the nonconference wins are looking pretty good with wins over three bubble teams, and the RPI is in the acceptable range.
Treading Water
None
Others__________________________________________________
Dancing
Butler, Siena
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Utah State (26-4; 14-2) RPI 27
Case For: Win over Utah, overall record, RPI
Case Against: Lost three of six, although none are very bad
Analysis: The Aggies are above the Bubble carnage, and close to near-lock status. Aflameout in the Big West tourney could be inviting trouble. Once a shoo-in for the dance, Utah State now can only point to one great win over Utah to plead their case. The RPI is still strong, and a trip to the WAC finals might be enough to send them dancing. We just hope another loss doesn’t leave things up to chance with the committee, who has historically given teams like Utah State the shaft. The win over Utah is their best nonconference offering, and 3-3 vs. the top-100 is nothing to be ashamed about either.
Niagara (26-8; 16-5 MAAC) RPI 52
Case For: Road wins, wins vs. Siena, Illinois State
Case Against: Five sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Purple Eagles were sloppy and off-target in losing to Siena in the MAAC Final. They need a miracle to get an at-large, but its hard to argue that they would be able to beat almost anyone on the Bubble. They ran both Siena and MVC finalist Illinois State out of the gym just a few weeks ago, which is an indication of their potential. Their chances may be slim, but the Siena win was an emphatic statement of how good this team is. If the committee values road wins, they have a chance - they lead the nation with 15 wins away from home.
Davidson (25-7; 19-3 SoCon) RPI 69
Case For: Win over West Virginia, Stephen Curry
Case Against: RPI, three SoCon losses
Analysis: There is a bit of a double standard with Davidson and St. Mary's - why do the Gaels get a pass for when Patty Mills was out, but the committee must punish Davidson for losing to the Citadel and Butler without Curry? The Wildcats need some serious Bubble carnage to happen above them and some serious favoritism to garner a bid, but at least there arent any bad losses and they scheduled tough nonconference games to challenge themselves. The RPI is very low, but mid major fans are praying that CBS pulls some strings to get Mr. Curry into the tournament. One question that could benefit them - are they a tournament team with Curry 100%? The answer may very well be yes.
