Afternoon Bubble Update

Michigan is now locked up after hammering Iowa.  Virginia Tech lives to fight another Bubble day, and Minnesota has boosted their profile.  Meanwhile, Arizona suffered a potentially fatal loss in the Pac-10 quarterfinals.  Only some shady committee shenanigans can save their long NCAA streak now, although we put the chances of those shenanigans happening at about 55%.  Kansas State is off the Watch after dropping a close one to Texas.  Despite a nice midseason turnaround, they are headed to the NIT.  Niagara is also squeezed from the list due to the fact that the Bubble has not completely collapsed.


Dancing (57): (*=Automatic Bid): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Xavier, Dayton, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Memphis, Northern Iowa (MVC)*, UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California, Utah, BYU, LSU, Tennessee, Gonzaga (WCC)*, Butler, Cleveland State (Horizon)*, Cornell (Ivy)*, Morehead State (OVC)*, Radford (Big South)*, East Tennessee State (A-Sun)*, America East*, VCU (CAA)*, Siena (MAAC)*, Robert Morris (Northeast)*, Patriot*, Chattanooga (SoCon)*, North Dakota State (Summit)*, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)*, MEAC*, SWAC*, MAC*, Big West*, Southland*, WAC*, Portland State (Big Sky)*

Near Locks (2): Texas A&M, Wisconsin

Bids Remaining (6)

Bubble (15): Maryland, Virginia Tech, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona, Creighton, Minnesota, Penn State, Providence, Davidson 


ACC_________________________________________________ 
Miami is done after being blasted by Virginia Tech 65-47.  7-10 is not going to cut it.
Dancing
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Near Locks 
None
Bubble
Virginia Tech (18-13; 8-9) RPI 59
Case For: Wins at Wake Forest, at Clemson, vs. Miami (N), at Miami, vs. BC
Case Against: No good nonconference wins, lost eight of last twelve
Analysis: The desperate Hokies still have an at-large pulse after embarrassing an equally desperate Miami team 65-47.  They are still playing, which is more than many Bubblers can claim, and now have a marquee shot against a North Carolina that has already locked up a #1 seed.  If they can somehow knock off the Tar Heels, they could very well be looking at a bid.  As it stands, Tech is still in an uncertain situation.  They faltered down the stretch, but do own road wins at Clemson, at Miami and at Wake Forest.  Those could come in handy in a "best team" scenario.  Say all you want about Penn State and New Mexico's conference record - but is there any chance they go to Wake Forest and Clemson and win?  No chance.  The RPI is low and there is nothing helpful out of conference, so only a deep tourney run can ressurrect their chances. 
Maryland (19-12; 8-9) RPI 67
Case For: Win vs. Michigan State, vs. UNC, vs. Michigan
Case Against: Only two road wins, home loss to Morgan State
Analysis: The Terps got past NC State, but didnt help themselves as much as Virginia Tech or other Bubble teams (although not any fault of their own).  They now get another shot at Wake Forest in the quarterfinals.  With a low RPI and some bad losses, they need to beat Wake Forest to have any shot at an at-large.  There are some excellent items on the resume, but also a few ugly negatives.  For all the hype about their upside, you have to consider the downside of the resume and realize they wouldn’t be looking so strong if they weren’t named “Maryland”.  The Terps have blowout losses to Duke (by 41), Clemson (by 29), Georgetown and Gonzaga, as well as a head-scratcher against Morgan State.
Treading Water
None

Atlantic 10_________________________________________
Dancing 
Xavier, Dayton 
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Temple (20-11; 12-5) RPI 40

Big East_________________________________________________
Dancing
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Providence (19-13; 11-9) RPI 71
Case For: Big East record, wins over URI, Syracuse and Pittsburgh
Case Against: RPI is low, 6-13 vs. top-100
Analysis: Providence was beaten soundly by Louisville and now have just a very slim chance for an at-large bid.  The computer numbers are trending well behind their competitors.  They have one of the biggest wins of the bubble season by thoroughly beating Pittsburgh, but the Cincinnati sweep looked a lot better two weeks ago, as the Bearcats are no longer NCAA contenders.  They have a winning league mark, but prior to beating Pitt most of their damage has come at the expense of the league’s weaklings.  They have a potential tiebreaking win over Rhode Island in their back pocket, but that probably won't come into play.  The 6-13 mark against the top-100 could prove to be their undoing, and six of those losses were blowouts of fifteen or more points.
Treading Water
None

Big 12______________________________________________________
Dancing
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State
Near Locks
Texas A&M (22-9; 9-8) RPI 34
Analysis:  It will take a serious movement by the Bubble teams to push the Aggies out of the tournament, but blowing a huge lead against league doormat Texas Tech will make them wait a long few days until Sunday.  Luckily that is their worst loss of the season, and their only one against a sub-100 RPI team.  They went 9-8 vs. the top-100, won six of their last seven, have nonconference wins over Arizona and LSU as well as conference wins over Oklahoma State and a resounding win over Missouri.  They should still hear their name called on Sunday.
Bubble
None 
Treading Water
None

Big Ten_____________________________________________  
Dancing
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan 
Near Locks
Wisconsin (18-11; 10-8) RPI 38
Case For: RPI, win at Virginia Tech, vs. Illinois, sweep of Michigan
Case Against: Six game midseason losing streak, swept by Minnesota
Analysis:  The Badgers beat Indiana and now sport a good 10-8 Big Ten record.  They have resurrected their season after a very bad six game midseason losing streak.  The RPI is very good, and they have enough good nonconference wins to possibly merit a bid.  Bubble-wise, they own sweeps of Penn State and Michigan, which may put them near the top of the Big Ten bubble pecking order.  One more win, however it happens, could send them dancing.  They played 13 games against the top-50, but won just four of them.  Sweeps of Michigan and Penn State places them above both teams in the pecking order.
Bubble
Minnesota (21-9; 10-9) RPI 41
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Illinois, Ohio State, Sweep of Wisconsin
Case Against: 5-8 in last thirteen games
Analysis:  Minnesota ousted Northwestern to seriously help their chances at an at-large.  The Gophers are all but certain to be right on the cut line at worst, and a win over Michigan State would more than book their ticket to the dance.  As long as they are competitive, they should feel good about their chanes. They have a good 9-9 record vs. the top-100 RPI, but they could be penalized for scheduling some real cupcakes at home.  The computer numbers are good, and the nonconference win over Louisville is very nice. 
Penn State (22-10; 11-8) RPI 66
Case For: wins at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, sweep of Illinois
Case Against: RPI, nonconference wins lacking
Analysis: The Nittany Lions got the necessary win over Indiana, and now face a virtual must-win against Purdue.  For all the talk of them being in right now, where do losses to Iowa and the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament put them?  The RPI is still very low for an at-large, but they are definitely hovering around the cut line.  The marquee wins and good Big Ten could be enough to send them to the dance, but they cant afford to lay an egg against Purdue.  Will their soft nonconference schedule hurt them?  It has hit their RPI pretty hard, but the conference work has more than made up for it.  They have an outstanding 3-1 mark against the top-25 RPI.  A bad performance in the Big Ten tournament may cost them a bid that was all but assured 72 hours ago. 
Treading Water
None

Conference USA_________________________________
Dancing
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Tulsa (22-9; 13-4) RPI 62; UAB (22-10; 21-5) RPI 44

MVC_________________________________________________
Dancing
Northern Iowa
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Creighton (26-7; 15-5) RPI 40
Case For:  Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, George Mason, 11 straight wins before loss in MVC semis
Case Against:  Two sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Blue Jays got blown out in the MVC semifinals by Illinois State, and now must wait a very long eight days to learn their fate. 26 wins is usually a ticket to the dance, but Creighton ended the season in disastrous fashion.  They have an outstanding 9-5 record vs. the top-100, but have a couple of bad and blowout losses.  They are still in OK shape, but must wait to see how the fellow Bubblers fare in the next week.  If there are a few surprise major conference auto bids, it will make them sweat it out next Sunday.  If the selection were today, they would probably be in, but the selection is more than a week away.
Treading Water
None

Pac-10__________________________________________________
Dancing
UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California 
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Arizona (19-13; 9-10) RPI 54
Case For: Good wins vs. Washington, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Kansas
Case Against: Road performance
Analysis:  The Wildcats could see their twenty four year NCAA streak end this season.  After nearly locking down a bid, they lost five of six down the stretch and only mustered a home win over Stanford in between the carnage.  Their best asset is their tradition and name recognition.  For the second straight year, that could slip them into the tournament undeservedly.  They have a sub-.500 in a conference that isn't that good, but could benefit from a stupid committee member saying "Boy, I wouldn't want to play Chase Budinger in the tournament- Arizona is talented!".  They probably have the nonconference wins and the decent conference performance to stay in the discussion, but they were dreadful on the road and were inconsistent all season.  Their only road wins came at the Oregon schools.
Treading Water
USC (18-12; 9-9) RPI 60

Mountain West__________________________________________
Round Three of the SDSU-UNLV bloodbath will occur in the MWC Quarterfinals.  SDSU may be able to survive a loss, but UNLV cannot.
Dancing
Utah, BYU
Near Locks
None
Bubble
San Diego State (20-8; 12-5) RPI 43
Case For: Wins vs. Utah, 3 wins vs. UNLV
Case Against: Nonconference wins are lacking, destroyed at New Mexico, 1-5 vs. top-50
Analysis: The Aztecs completed a sweep of UNLV to set up a crucial showdown with - UNLV.  A third win over the Rebs will put them in great shape and send UNLV to the NIT.  Completing the sweep was nice, but they don’t have nearly the resume UNLV does out of conference (or even in conference).  There is nothing in the nonconference performance that will help them, so MWC play is crucial.  The UNLV game will (once again) decide their fate, but it won’t fully punch their ticket.
New Mexico (21-10; 12-4) RPI 58
Case For: MWC record, wins vs. SDSU, BYU, UNLV, Utah
Case Against:  Nonconference play; All of the good wins are at home
Analysis: The Lobos completed an impressive regular season with a lifesaving win at Wyoming.  Three sub-100 losses hurt, as well as a lack of good nonconference wins.  They have now won 8 of their past 9 and beaten each of the top tier teams at least once, which is especially helpful.  12-4 in the MWC is a strong statement on a tournament resume.  They did have trouble on the road this year, but are 7-7 vs. the top-100, and the Wyoming win sets them up nicely for the MWC tournament.
UNLV (21-10; 9-8) RPI 56
Case For: Wins vs. Arizona, vs. Utah, at Louisville, sweep of BYU
Case Against:  Losses at TCU, at Colorado State
Analysis:  UNLV was beaten was beaten for a third time by nemesis SDSU and now appear headed to the NIT.  Even though they havefour wins vs. the top-25 RPI, 9-8 in the conference and three losses to fellow Bubbler SDSU makes it difficult to give them an invite to the dance.   UNLV has an impressive sweep of BYU and great wins at Louisville and vs. Utah.  The nonconference wins are great, but taking care of business in a pretty good league was their safest bet for a bid. 
Treading Water
None

SEC____________________________________________________
Dancing
LSU, Tennessee
Near Locks 
None
Bubble
Florida (22-9; 9-7) RPI 48
Case For: Wins vs. Washington, NC State
Case Against: RPI, loss to Georgia, Swept by Tennessee
Analysis:  The Gators kept their hopes alive after eliminating Kentucky from consideration.  They are still in serious danger of missing the tournament due to their conference performance and considering the softness of their nonconference scheduling (seven wins vs. teams +285 in the RPI).  The best conference win is at home vs. South Carolina, and the Washington win was very good.  They need at least two more wins in the SEC tournament to have any chance.  Beside the average conference performance, Florida did not exactly challenge themselves in scheduling, and it may very well cost them a bid.
South Carolina (21-8; 10-6) RPI 50
Case For: Sweep of Kentucky, win vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston, 1-5 vs. top-50
Analysis:  South Carolina took care of Georgia, but still must make some noise in the conference tournament to feel good about their chances.   The Gamecocks are still in the running, as they own wins over Florida and a sweep of fellow bubbler Kentucky.  They are a pretty good 7-7 vs. the top-100, but they still don’t have any marquee wins.  Are a few good wins in a pretty bad major conference enough?  SEC play is all they have, as there is nothing helpful in the nonconference department. 
Auburn (20-10; 10-6) RPI 65
Case For: Win vs. Tennessee, LSU, SEC record
Case Against:  Weak profile, RPI, home loss to Mercer
Analysis:  Auburn is in the discussion after beating LSU and reeling off four straight top-100 W’s.  10-6 in a major conference isn’t easy, no matter how bad the SEC is.  They still need two or more games in the SEC tournament to really have a shot, but in a Bubble environment like this who knows?  The Tigers are fully capable of winning the SEC tournament and end all doubt.  They are just 5-9 vs. the top-100 and did nothing of note out of conference.
Treading Water
None

West Coast_________________________________________________
If St. Mary’s reaches the WCC final, they should be dancing.
Dancing
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (23-6; 11-5) RPI 46
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Case Against: Loss at Santa Clara
Analysis:  It was thought prior to last night that the Gaels could survive a loss in the WCC final - but it was borderline unthinkable that they would lose by 25 in a game that wasn't even as close as the score might indicate.  On top of that, Patty Mills was awful and is obviously not healthy, which was their other assumed trump card.  They also took an odd step to schedule a nonconference game vs. Eastern Washington after the WCC tourney is over, but after Monday's performance they might have to win by fifty to erase the bad memories.  Still, the nonconference wins are looking pretty good with wins over three bubble teams, and the RPI is in the acceptable range. 
Treading Water
None

Others__________________________________________________
Dancing
Butler, Siena 
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Utah State (27-4; 15-2) RPI 28
Case For: Win over Utah, overall record, RPI
Case Against: Late season swoon, loss at St. Mary's
Analysis:  The Aggies are above the Bubble carnage, and close to near-lock status.  A flameout in the Big West tourney could be inviting trouble.  Once a shoo-in for the dance, Utah State now can only point to one great win over Utah to plead their case.  The RPI is still strong, and a trip to the WAC finals might be enough to send them dancing.  We just hope another loss doesn’t leave things up to chance with the committee, who has historically given teams like Utah State the shaft.  The win over Utah is their best nonconference offering, and 3-3 vs. the top-100 is nothing to be ashamed about either.
Davidson (25-7; 19-3 SoCon) RPI 69
Case For: Win over West Virginia, Stephen Curry
Case Against: RPI, three SoCon losses
Analysis:  There is a bit of a double standard with Davidson and St. Mary's - why do the Gaels get a pass for when Patty Mills was out, but the committee must punish Davidson for losing to the Citadel and Butler without Curry?  The Wildcats need some serious Bubble carnage to happen above them and some serious favoritism to garner a bid, but at least there arent any bad losses and they scheduled tough nonconference games to challenge themselves.  The RPI is very low, but mid major fans are praying that CBS pulls some strings to get Mr. Curry into the tournament.  One question that could benefit them - are they a tournament team with Curry 100%?  The answer may very well be yes.