Congratulations, America!  The Maryland Terrapins, coached by the sweaty, insecure, surly, Moe the Batender twin Gary Williams and obnoxious, antagonizing, gigantic dickhead Greivis Vasquez are headed to the NCAA Tournament (and a prime spot on your television) after beating Wake Forest.  These two loveable a-holes are backed by the most vile, fair-weather, wannabe fans of any team on Earth.  Should be fun.  Keep in mind this so-called "Elite Program" has had exactly one winning ACC season in the last five years.  But great job, boys - you earned that eleventh seed.  I hope you lose by thirty in the first round.

Utah State did Bubble World a favor by grabbing the WAC auto bid and allowing one more team to Dance.  While they hadnt secured an at-large, having the Aggies in the pool would have led to some tense moments for a few Bubblers.  Auburn looks done after a loss to Tennessee in the SEC semifinals - they simply don't have a resume worthy of the tournament.  They also don't look the part of an NCAA team.  Tennessee played sloppy and still won fairly easily.  USC also snatched an available bid from the Bubble in dramatic fashion. 

Only a couple spots remain, and most of Bubble World will be watching the SEC final closely to see if Mississippi State grabs another bid away from the at-large pool.  TourneyBubble's final selection should be up tomorrow afternoon, and we will try to avoid the shady last-second changes that Bracketology and Joe Lunardi try to pull in the hours before the selections are announced.  I'm sure Joe has a good reason to change three teams at the last second with no explanation when none of them has actually played or changed their standing in any way. 

Dancing (60): (*=Automatic Bid): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Xavier, Dayton, Temple (Atlantic 10)*, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville (Big East)*, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri (Big 12)*, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Memphis, Northern Iowa (MVC)*, UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California, USC (Pac-10)*, Utah (MWC)*, BYU, LSU, Tennessee, Gonzaga (WCC)*, Butler, Cleveland State (Horizon)*, Cornell (Ivy)*, Morehead State (OVC)*, Radford (Big South)*, East Tennessee State (A-Sun)*, Binghamton (America East)*, VCU (CAA)*, Siena (MAAC)*, Robert Morris (Northeast)*, American (Patriot)*, Chattanooga (SoCon)*, North Dakota State (Summit)*, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)*, Morgan State (MEAC)*, SWAC*, Akron (MAC)*, Cal State Northridge (Big West)*, Southland*, Utah State (WAC)*, Portland State (Big Sky)*

Near Locks (3): Wisconsin, Minnesota, San Diego State

Bids Remaining (2)

Bubble (6): Maryland, St. Mary’s, Creighton, Penn State, New Mexico, Davidson 

Barely Bubble (8): Auburn, Arizona, Providence, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida, UNLV, Tulsa


ACC_________________________________________________ 
Dancing
North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Near Locks 
None
Bubble
Virginia Tech (18-14; 8-10) RPI 61
Case For: Wins at Wake Forest, at Clemson, vs. Miami (N), at Miami, vs. BC
Case Against: No good nonconference wins, lost eight of last twelve
Analysis: The Hokies got hosed in a last second loss to North Carolina and appear headed to the NIT.  I don't want to hear how the tie-up between Tyler Hansbrough (who apparently can't committ a foul) and JT Thomspon was the "right call" - you simply don't call an over-the-back tie up with five f_cking seconds left in a one-point game, especially when Thompson clearly won back possession anyways.  Complete BS.  Tech faltered down the stretch of the conference season, but do own road wins at Clemson, at Miami and at Wake Forest.  Those could come in handy in a "best team" scenario.  Say all you want about Penn State and New Mexico's conference record - but is there any chance they go to Wake Forest and Clemson and win?  No chance.  Those teams, and the UNC team they just outplayed, would beat Creighton - or whatever crap team gets the last at-large- by 30 points.  The RPI is too low and there is nothing helpful out of conference, so only a win would have saved the Hokies.
Maryland (20-13; 9-10) RPI 51
Case For: Win vs. Michigan State, vs. UNC, vs. Michigan, vs. Wake Forest
Case Against: Only two road wins, home loss to Morgan State
Analysis: The Terps lost to Duke and didnt gain any style points in the process.  With a couple of surprises, they could find themselves out of the field.  Is playing three great games worth a tournament bid?  Its pretty much all they have right now, as the Duke game sent them to 7-10 vs. the top-100.  There are some excellent items on the resume, but also a few ugly negatives.  For all the hype about their upside, you have to consider the downside of the resume and realize they wouldn’t be looking so strong if they weren’t named “Maryland”.  The Terps have blowout losses to Duke (by 41), Clemson (by 29), Georgetown and Gonzaga, as well as a head-scratcher against Morgan State.  Remember these points when ESPN tells you how great they are.  Oh well, at least we can bet against them in the first round.
Treading Water
None

Atlantic 10_________________________________________
Dancing 
Xavier, Dayton, Temple 
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
None

Big East_________________________________________________
Dancing
Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Providence (19-13; 11-9) RPI 71
Case For: Big East record, wins over URI, Syracuse and Pittsburgh
Case Against: RPI is low, 6-13 vs. top-100
Analysis: Providence was beaten soundly by Louisville and now have just a very slim chance for an at-large bid.  The computer numbers are trending well behind their competitors.  They have one of the biggest wins of the bubble season by thoroughly beating Pittsburgh, but the Cincinnati sweep looked a lot better two weeks ago, as the Bearcats are no longer NCAA contenders.  They have a winning league mark, but prior to beating Pitt most of their damage has come at the expense of the league’s weaklings.  They have a potential tiebreaking win over Rhode Island in their back pocket, but that probably won't come into play.  The 6-13 mark against the top-100 could prove to be their undoing, and six of those losses were blowouts of fifteen or more points.
Treading Water
None

Big 12______________________________________________________
Dancing
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None 
Treading Water
None

Big Ten_____________________________________________  
Dancing
Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan 
Near Locks
Wisconsin (18-12; 10-9) RPI 44
Case For: RPI, win at Virginia Tech, vs. Illinois, sweep of Michigan, sweep of Penn State
Case Against: Six game midseason losing streak, swept by Minnesota
Analysis:  The Badgers lost to Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals, but still should hear their name called on Sunday.  They resurrected their season after a very bad six game midseason losing streak.  The RPI is very good, and they have enough good nonconference wins to possibly merit a bid.  Bubble-wise, they own sweeps of Penn State and Michigan, which may put them near the top of the Big Ten bubble pecking order.  While they have plenty of losses, their SOS is great (14) and they have nine top-100 wins. They played 13 games against the top-50, but won just four of them.  Sweeps of Michigan and Penn State, along with their surge at the end of the season, are enough to get them into the field
Minnesota (21-10; 10-10) RPI 40
Case For: Wins vs. Louisville, Illinois, Ohio State, Sweep of Wisconsin
Case Against: 5-8 in last thirteen games
Analysis:  Minnesota ousted Northwestern to seriously help their chances at an at-large.  The Gophers are all but certain to be right on the cut line at worst, and a win over Michigan State would have more than booked their ticket to the dance.  They were competitive, so they should feel pretty good about their chances.  They have a good 9-9 record vs. the top-100 RPI, but they could be penalized for scheduling some real cupcakes at home.  The computer numbers are good, and the nonconference win over Louisville is very nice.  Five top-50 wins should send them dancing.
Bubble 
Penn State (22-11; 11-9) RPI 68
Case For: wins at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, sweep of Illinois
Case Against: RPI, nonconference wins lacking
Analysis: The Nittany Lions lost badly to Purdue and put their at-large chances on life support.  For all the talk of them being in right now, where do losses to Iowa and the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament put them?  The RPI is still very low for an at-large, but they are probably hovering right around the cut line.  The marquee wins and good Big Ten record would usually be enough to send them to the dance, but they could not afford to lay an egg against Purdue.  Will their soft nonconference schedule hurt them?  It has hit their RPI pretty hard, but the conference work has more than made up for it.  They have an outstanding 3-1 mark against the top-25 RPI, but the bad performance in the Big Ten tournament may have cost them a bid. 
Treading Water
None

Conference USA_________________________________
Dancing
Memphis
Near Locks
None
Bubble
None
Treading Water
Tulsa (23-9; 14-4) RPI 62

MVC_________________________________________________
Dancing
Northern Iowa
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Creighton (26-7; 15-5) RPI 41
Case For:  Wins vs. New Mexico, Dayton, George Mason, 11 straight wins before loss in MVC semis
Case Against:  Two sub-100 losses
Analysis: The Blue Jays got blown out in the MVC semifinals by Illinois State, and now must wait a very long eight days to learn their fate. 26 wins is usually a ticket to the dance, but Creighton ended the season in disastrous fashion.  They have an outstanding 9-5 record vs. the top-100, but have a couple of bad and blowout losses.  The Bluejays are also 2-2 vs. the top-50.  They are still in OK shape, but must wait to see how the fellow Bubblers fare in the next couple of days.  If there are a few surprise major conference auto bids, it will make them sweat it out next Sunday.  If the selection were today, they would probably be in, based on their scheduling and end of season run.
Treading Water
None

Pac-10__________________________________________________
Dancing
UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, California, USC 
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Arizona (19-13; 9-10) RPI 63
Case For: Good wins vs. Washington, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Kansas
Case Against: Road performance
Analysis:  The Wildcats could see their twenty four year NCAA streak end this season.  After nearly locking down a bid, they lost five of six down the stretch and only mustered a home win over Stanford in between the carnage.  Their best asset is their tradition and name recognition.  For the second straight year, that could slip them into the tournament undeservedly.  They have a sub-.500 in a conference that isn't that good, but could benefit from a stupid committee member saying "Boy, I wouldn't want to play Chase Budinger in the tournament- Arizona is talented!".  They probably have the nonconference wins and the decent conference performance to stay in the discussion, but they were dreadful on the road and were inconsistent all season.  Their only road wins came at the Oregon schools.
Treading Water
None


Mountain West__________________________________________
Dancing
Utah, BYU
Near Locks
San Diego State (21-9; 13-6) RPI 31
Case For: Wins vs. Utah, BYU, 3 wins vs. UNLV, RPI 
Case Against: Nonconference wins are lacking, destroyed at New Mexico, 1-5 vs. top-50
Analysis: The Aztecs lost a fairly ugly game to Utah, but probably did enough to grab an at-large bid.  With UNLV and New Mexico flaming out, their run to the MWC final looks even more impressive.  The committee could point to their nonconference performance (best win - San Diego?) and 2-5 record vs. the top-50 as reasons to keep them out, bt at this point its tough to see another Bubbler passing them.  But with a strng RPI and three wins over UNLV along with wins over Utah and BYU, they look to be in pretty good shape.
Bubble
New Mexico (21-11; 12-5) RPI 66
Case For: MWC record, wins vs. SDSU, BYU, UNLV, Utah
Case Against:  Nonconference play; All of the good wins are at home
Analysis: The Lobos suffered a bad loss to Wyoming in the quarterfianls of the MWC tournament, putting their at-large chances in serious jeopardy.   They have won 8 of their past 10 and beaten each of the top tier teams at least once, which is especially helpful,  12-4 in the MWC (and a share of the title) is a strong statement on a tournament resume.  They did have trouble on the road this year, but are 7-7 vs. the top-100, and the Wyoming win sets them up nicely for the MWC tournament.  They just could not afford a loss to anyone outside of the conference's top 5.
Treading Water
UNLV (21-10; 9-8) RPI 65

SEC____________________________________________________
Dancing
LSU, Tennessee
Near Locks 
None
Bubble
Florida (23-10; 10-8) RPI 52
Case For: Wins vs. Washington, at Auburn
Case Against: RPI, loss to Georgia, Swept by Tennessee
Analysis:  The Gators may have seen their tournament dreams dashed by red hot Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals.  They are 8-9 vs. the top-100, but went just 5-7 in their last twleve games. They are still in serious danger of missing the tournament due to their conference performance and considering the softness of their nonconference scheduling (seven wins vs. teams +285 in the RPI),  The best conference win is at Auburn, and the Washington win was very good.  Beside the average conference performance, Florida did not exactly challenge themselves in scheduling, and it may very well cost them a bid.  Wihtout a win over Auburn, the lack of quality wins should keep them out of the field.
South Carolina (21-9; 10-7) RPI 58
Case For: Sweep of Kentucky, win vs. Florida
Case Against: Loss at Charleston, 1-5 vs. top-50
Analysis:  South Carolina probably kissed their at-large chances goodbye with a bad loss to Mississippi State.  The Gamecocks own wins over Florida and a sweep of Kentucky.  They are a pretty good 7-8 vs. the top-100, but they still don’t have any marquee wins.  Are a few good wins in a pretty bad major conference enough?  Probably not.  SEC play is all they have, as there is nothing helpful in the nonconference department. 
Auburn (21-11; 11-7) RPI 57
Case For: Win vs. Tennessee, LSU, Florida, SEC record
Case Against:  Weak profile, RPI, home loss to Mercer
Analysis:  Auburn fell to Tennessee and probably saw their at-large chances ended.  They would have had a much better shot should they have gone to the finals.  Sorry, ESPN, the Florida matchup was not a play-in game - Auburn has not beaten anybody of note outside the SEC.  And guess what?   The SEC isn't that good.  11-7 in a major conference isn’t easy, no matter how bad the SEC is but it's difficult to project how they would fare outside of the cozy confines of a league barely as good as the A-10.  Once again the national media has mistaken "hot" for "good", and while Auburn has played well the past month, I don't see them beating more than one or two of their fellow Bubblers if they had to play them head to head.  They are just 5-11 vs. the top-100 and did nothing of note out of conference, although with the loss they still would be 10-2 in their last twelve games. 
Treading Water
None

West Coast_________________________________________________
Dancing
Gonzaga
Near Locks
None
Bubble
St. Mary’s (24-6; 11-5) RPI 47
Case For: Wins vs. Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Case Against: Loss at Santa Clara
Analysis:  It was thought prior to last night that the Gaels could survive a loss in the WCC final - but it was borderline unthinkable that they would lose by 25 in a game that wasn't even as close as the score might indicate.  On top of that, Patty Mills was awful and is obviously not healthy, which was their other assumed trump card.  They also took an odd step to schedule a nonconference game vs. Eastern Washington after the WCC tourney is over, but after Monday's performance they might have to win by fifty to erase the bad memories.  Still, the nonconference wins are looking pretty good with wins over three bubble teams, and the RPI is in the acceptable range. 
Treading Water
None

Others__________________________________________________
Dancing
Butler, Siena, Utah State 
Near Locks
None
Bubble
Davidson (25-7; 19-3 SoCon) RPI 69
Case For: Win over West Virginia, Stephen Curry
Case Against: RPI, three SoCon losses
Analysis:  There is a bit of a double standard with Davidson and St. Mary's - why do the Gaels get a pass for when Patty Mills was out, but the committee must punish Davidson for losing to the Citadel and Butler without Curry?  The Wildcats need some serious Bubble carnage to happen above them and some serious favoritism to garner a bid, but at least there arent any bad losses and they scheduled tough nonconference games to challenge themselves.  The RPI is very low, but mid major fans are praying that CBS pulls some strings to get Mr. Curry into the tournament.  One question that could benefit them - are they a tournament team with Curry 100%?  The answer may very well be yes.