The last 4 teams into the tournament, from my line of thinking are:

 Creighton, Minnesota, Wisconsin, San Diego St

Creighton has the best at-large resume of any of the remaining teams left in the at-large pool. They should get in on the strength of their body of work.

Minnesota is next on that list, having ZERO bad losses and several big time wins, including Illinois and potential number 1 seed Louisville. Tubby will be dancing.

Wisconsin got hot down the stretch, winning some big games, beating Illinois and sweeping Michigan (a pretty good lock to get into the NCAA tourney). Losing in the quarterfinals to Ohio St. did them no favors, but on the strength of their wins, they probably will earn a spot.

 Finally, we come to San Diego St. A team that had to play their asses off in the MWC tourney just to get into the at-large discussion. By beating BYU and UNLV in the conference tourney and playing Utah down to the wire, they probably did enough to get in. The losses to other bubble teams Arizona and St. Mary's don't help them, but they pulled off quite a few conference wins and gave a good enough accounting of themselves in the MWC tourney to deserve a bid. They are the last team into the big dance.

First 4 teams that will be left out of the NCAA tournament -

Maryland, St. Mary's, Penn St., Arizona

Maryland might just have squeaked into the NCAA's with their upset of Wake and trip to the ACC Final. However, upon further review, they have the two worst losses of any bubble team when you consider they lost to UVA and Morgan St. at home. However, beating Mich. St., UNC and Wake could put them into the tourney and outweigh those terrible losses. Maryland will be an interesting case in the eyes of the committee and it really only comes down to how much emphasis they put on the big wins and the ACC tourney run vs. the bad losses and the mediocre conference play. It wouldn't surprise me too much if they got in instead of Wisconsin or San Diego St.

 St. Mary's (and Davidson to a smaller measure) are a perfect example of why I believe that the NCAA tourney should adopt a play-in game for the last bubble teams into the tourney. Who wouldn't want to watch St. Mary's, with a HEALTHY Patty Mills, play Maryland or Davidson, with a healthy Steph Curry, play Minnesota with EVERYTHING on the line? Unfortunately, since there is no chance of that happening anytime soon, St. Mary's will most likely be left out of the tournament despite finishing second in their conference and losing in their conference final to a top 15 team. Getting swept by Gonzaga all 3 games was a killer and even though they beat a very good Utah State team WITHOUT Patty Mills, they just do not have enough quality wins to justify them getting into the tourney. However, that raises the debate about how they are supposed to get Top 25 and Top 50 wins when no BCS teams will take the chance to play them, especially at St. Mary's. Their best OOC wins were again against non-BCS powers, San Diego St. and Utah State, both teams that should get into the NCAA tourney. If their was a play-in game, they would finally get a chance to play a BCS team and prove that they can beat them and deserve to be in. We can always hope.

 Penn St. has too many losses to solid, but not great teams, to deserve an at-large bid. Had they beaten Purdue in the Big 10 tourney, it might have been enough to move them past some of the other bubble teams ahead of them, but losing in the quaterfinals of your conference when you only finished 10-8 in the regular season, coupled with some dissapointing losses, just isn't going to do it. Losing to Temple and Rhode Island, when they are the two best teams you played OOC, doesn't make you resume very impressive. Couple that with a bad loss at the end of the season to Iowa and a sweep by Wisconsin and you have your reasons to leave Penn St. out of the tournament.

 Arizona is another interesting case study for the selection committee. Great wins (Gonzaga, Kansas, San Diego St., UCLA, Washington) some bad losses, especially OOC (UAB, UNLV, Texas A&M, Stanford, Washington St.) a sub .500 conference record (if you include the first round loss to Arizona St.) and a mediocre overall record (19-13). Will the good wins and tough schedule be enough to carry them into the tournament despite playing in a weaker Pac-10 conference than in recent years? In my opinion, no it will not.