TourneyBubble correctly predicted 63 of the 65 teams in the 2009 field, missing deserving teams Creighton and San Diego State for the committee’s selective picks of Maryland and Arizona.  Those were our final predictions below, but the real write up had nice explanations and verdicts of why we chose how we did, but I apparently did not save it properly.  Apparently we underestimated how egregious the bias would be this year, as we thought (as did nearly every real expert picking the field) that Creighton’s credentials were unquestioned.  We were wrong.

There is a legitimate argument for and against each of the last teams in, and many talking heads (the suddenly brilliant Dick Vitale, Doug Gottlieb and Joe Lunardi) voiced their disapproval of the Arizona pick, but I completely disagree with thier congratulating the committee for a good job overall.  With so many interested parties dissecting the relative merits of the at-large teams, every bid up until the last three or four are pretty much no-brainers.  There is no reasonable explanation for the committee to exclude Dayton (although it almost happened), Minnesota, etc., so they pretty much have to give these teams bids to avoid the backlash.  They couldn't explain away such an obvious snub, even if they wanted to shut a certain team out.  Just when ESPN says how great a job the committee did, look at us - we are two guys with a computer and ESPN Full Court, and we came within two crap selections of correctly predicting the field.  It's not that hard.   

So what do we have?  A committee relatively handcuffed in how they can award bids.  This year had an inordinate number of clearly deserving teams, so there were only a couple of bids that the selection committee could get away with being a little subjective.  And the problem is that we know exactly how the story ends – for two straight years sub-par Arizona teams have received undeserved at-large bids, and Maryland sneaks into the field based on the perception that they had “done enough”.  The last two teams in are essentially throwaway bids, and it looks like they are just putting teams in that will draw in casual viewers for a quick buck.  Although the window for being subjective is small, the results are predictable and maddening.

Last Four In:Wisconsin, Minnesota, Creighton, San Diego State

First Four Out:  Maryland, Penn State, St. Mary's, Davidson

Next Four Out: Arizona, New Mexico, Auburn, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: Florida, UNLV, Providence, Tulsa