Welcome to the tourneybubble.com's Mid Major Preview, where we will be reviewing the top mid major teams from across the country, accessing their at-large and season potential and analyzing their chances to make a splash in the NCAA tournament. There are some obvious teams in the mid major ranks this year that are capable of winning and making it to the second weekend of NCAA tourney play, but there are also quite a few lesser known mids that could end up doing some damage to some BCS teams this year in the first round.
Without any further ado, here are the best of the Non-BCS teams and how we rate their chances of success:
Butler Bulldogs
We all know Butler, we all love Butler, we all love watching Butler play. We love their young coach, we love the mentality he has instilled in them, that tenacious defending and a team mentality can be successful in the NCAA tournament. We love their 3 point shooting ability, their rebounding ability and their penchant for taking charges on defense or making the extra pass on offense. In short, they do it all and are the model of what every non-BCS team wants to be right now. Matt Howard and Gordon Hayward are as good of players are you would find on any team in the country. One is tough as nails, the other has incredible range and accuracy. Together on the same team, they provide an inside/outside game that is one of the best in the country. Willie Veasley and Shelvin Mack are the tough defensive guards who can also penetrate and provide kick outs to shooters like Hayward and Zack Hahn for the open 3.
Butler will be tested early on in their schedule with OOC games against teams like Minnesota, Georgetown, Ohio State and Xavier, to name a few. Expect them to win at least 2 of those games and quite possibly, all 4. A nice Bracket Buster match up at the end of the year, possibly against a good CAA team, could break up the mid-season monotony of what should surely be a cakewalk for Butler to the Horizon league title. Regardless, tourneybubble.com would consider anything less than a Sweet 16 appearance would be a disappointment for the best team in the mid-major landscape of college basketball.
Creighton Bluejays
One of the top two teams in the MVC this year and one of the upper echelon teams in the mid-major world this year is the team from Omaha, the Creighton Bluejays. Dana Altman is still in town, coaching them up and looking just as intense as ever on the sidelines. He has a great group of players returning which should really help ease the loss of leading scorer Booker Woodfox to graduation. P. Allen Stinnett and Kaleb Korver can really stroke the 3 ball and Kenny Lawson Jr. gives them a solid post scorer and defender. The team has really good depth at the guard positions, but lacks size and strength inside with the exception of Lawson which could hurt them if they are unable to deal with some of the more physical teams in the MVC or OOC. It certainly hurt them in their first game of the season against Dayton, where they were beaten on the boards and beaten in the paint by a very physical Flyers team. If they can make up for that lack of size with great outside shooting, they will still be a very tough team to beat.
However, in their favor, the Bluejays have one of the best home court advantages in all of college basketball, and certainly one of the top 2 or 3 in the mid-major basketball world. The Qwest Center will again play a big role in helping the Bluejays try to win their conference championship by spurring them on to take care of business at home in one of the loudest places to play in the whole country. If they are able to run the table at home, they could possibly secure an at-large bid if they are able to string together a few marquee wins in the next couple of OOC games against a ranked Michigan team, a solid New Mexico team and a much improved George Mason team on the road. If they are able to win in the Bracketbuster against a top level opponent possibly from the CAA or MAAC and are able to post a good MVC conference record, Creighton should have what it takes to be an at-large caliber team should they falter in the always rugged MVC tourney. However, if they are not able to overcome their lack of size with consistent outside shooting, Creighton could be on the outside looking in come Bubble time. If they are able to make the NCAA tourney, they could conceivably pull a first round upset, depending on the the matchup, but may lack the size and physicality needed to advance much further than that.
Dayton Flyers
The Dayton Flyers may very well be my favorite mid-major not named Old Dominion. Some people would debate over whether they are still actually a mid-major because of their recent success, but I think the fact that not 1 BCS team would come play them in Dayton or even allow them to come play at their home court speaks to the fact that they are a mid-major that BCS teams are too scared to play. They could only get 3 games against BCS teams this year and that was only because those teams were forced to play them in a tournament. Dayton more than held their own, beating a ranked Georgia Tech team and taking another bubble team, Kansas St. and a 4th ranked Villanova team to the wire.
However, just because they have no more BCS teams of their schedule, that hardly means the Flyers won't have a chance to put some marquee wins on their resume. They already beat a very good Creighton team at home and have several more opportunities to pad their resume against teams like Old Dominion and New Mexico at home and a good George Mason team on the road. Add in a very tough A-10 conference this year with solid teams like Richmond, Xavier, Duquesne, St. Joe's and Temple, and Dayton should easily be into the NCAA tournament this March.
Chris Wright and Chris Johnson are explosive players who are as good of slashers/wing/post players as you would find on most any team in the country. Dayton has a ton of quality depth and is able to go big, go small, go athletic and give teams a multitude of different looks. They rebound well with their big men and athletic, tall wing players and are not just able to crash the glass on the offensive boards, but are able to finish put-back dunks several times a game. You just cannot keep this team off the boards because their guards are so strong and big.
Dayton can create match-up nightmares for almost any team in the country. We may not mention them much more this season as they probably won't be anywhere close to the bubble. The Flyers should be solidly in the tournament, but with the selection committee heavily favoring BCS teams in recent years for at-larges, you just never know.
Dayton certainly has the talent to improve on last year's first round win and certainly could be yet another mid-major representative in the Sweet 16 this year.
George Mason Patriots
The Patriots are a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. In other words, they are extremely young, very talented and capable of being very good (a 1 point loss to Villanova) and head-scratching (a 4 point home victory against Liberty, a team that got crushed by ODU and Clemson). They have a ton of potential and a mountain of inexperience. It will take one of Coach Larranaga's best efforts to date to turn this team into a bubble worthy group.
The three key players Coach L will be relying on to help them early on are Cam Long, a junior combo guard, Ryan Pearson, a skilled, tough sophomore power forward and another sophomore, Mike Morrison, a long armed dynamo who can finish around the rim with the best of them. Early on, they will rely on these 3 to give them a solid contribution every night. But that is hardly all they have. On any given night, the Patriots may receive major contributions from a group of talented freshman that may be as good as any group of freshman in the country. This group is actually being lead right now by one of the more unheralded signings, small forward Luke Hancock, who is giving them smooth, excellent play from a true freshman. He can shoot the rock, he can certainly pass the rock as well as anyone on the team, and is really going to contribute early on. They are also getting good contributions early on from possibly their two most talented freshmen, forward Kevin Foster and guard Sherrod Wright. Add in the very good play of sophomore point guard Andre Cornelius and you have the nucleus of what should be one of the best teams in mid-major land for the next several years.
Overall, the Patriots may take some lumps early, and they missed a crucial opportunity to establish themselves as a contender NOW for an at-large by losing at the last second to Villanova, but over the course of the season, this team could play itself into contention if they are able to keep up the solid play from their very young team. They have two more crucial tests coming up soon, both winnable games for the talented Patriots, home games against Creighton and Dayton. Were they to win both of those games and put up a good record in the rugged CAA this year, they could be squarely on the bubble come tourney time. A high profile Bracketbuster game could also help at the end of the season, much like it did at the end of 05-06 when the Patriots went to the Final 4. Where they to make the NCAA tourney, they have the athleticism and talent to pull a first round shocker, but probably lack the experience necessary to repeat what they did in 05-06. In a few years? You never know.
Illinois State Redbirds
The Redbirds looked like a NCAA tourney team last year, starting the season with 14 straight wins. Unfortunately, their relatively weak OOC schedule did nothing to prepare them for the rugged Missouri Valley regular season, in which they managed to finish with a respectable but not nearly impressive enough 11-7 record which kept them from dancing last year. This year's OOC schedule is a little more meaty, with a game against a very good Niagara team, a solid Ohio team and a tough road contest against Utah in the MVC-MWC challenge. Those 3 games should give Coach Tim Jankovich's team a good lead into MVC play and should have the Redbirds ready this year for a very tough Valley conference this year. A solid Bracketbuster game should also help boost their resume towards the end of the year.
The Redbirds are led by All-MVC guard Osiris Eldridge, who most people recognize by his stylish Mohawk, but real college basketball fans know him because of his tremendous scoring ability. The 6"3 guard has the ability to stroke the longball, but also can attack the rim and has a midrange game comparable to almost any shooting guard in the country. Eldridge is not alone however, as he is part of a solid trio of seniors who will help lead the Redbirds this year. The other two senior leaders are point guard Lloyd Phillips and forward Dinma Odiakosa. Their experience will be crucial in helping the Redbirds slug it out with the top teams in the MVC this year. Road wins are hard to come by in the MVC, so having 3 senior leaders who have played in these tough environments before is really a valuable asset. They will help the two main newcomers to the Redbirds lineup, Juco transfer forward Tony Lewis, a tough big man in the middle who adds some much needed size and freshman Austin Hill, the third guard in Illinois St.'s 3 guard lineup. They have a solid starting 5 and some decent depth coming off the bench,
All in all though, the Redbirds will go as far as Eldridge takes them. The early favorite for MVC player of the year, Eldridge will be looked too for game winning shots, early leadership in the beefed up OOC schedule and throughout the year in what should be a multi-bid MVC. Solid contributions will be needed from an experienced team and solid cast of supporting characters, but with Champ Oguchi gone, Eldridge will be the unquestioned leader and the Redbirds will his team to lead to victory. Right now, Illinois St. is a bubble team with some solid opportunities in the next few weeks to play themselves into the NCAA tourney. Were they to do so, they would really have to play a great game in order to advance out of the first round as they would likely not be higher than a 11 or 12 seed due to their decent but not great OOC schedule. Osiris Eldridge has the ability to lead them to a first round upset, but Tourneybubble does not see them being able to advance much further than that.
