Northern Iowa Panthers
The third Missouri Valley team in our Mid-Major Preview is the fighting pride of Cedar Falls Iowa, the Northern Iowa Panthers. One of the lesser known mids by MVC standards, the Panthers have been a VERY solid team on the national stage, making the tourney three of the last 5 years. This year is looking to be no exception, as the Panthers return all 5 starters to a team that won the MVC tourney and nearly knocked off a very good Purdue team in the opening round. The Panthers will certainly be looking to improve on last seasons finish by advancing to the second round of the tourney any possibly even the sweet 16.
With all 5 starters returning, the Panthers will have balance on offense and experience all over the court. But in the crunch, they will rely heavily on their main man in the middle, Adam Koch. As a first team All-Valley player, his experience around the rim will play a big part in the Panthers season. It would be easy to say as he goes, so do the Panthers, but on any given night, someone different might step up and lead them in scoring. The next guy on the list of players who can step up is Kwadzo Ahelegbe, a 6-2 junior guard who was second on the team in scoring last year and has already proven that he can be THE GUY this year when they need him, by dropping 32 on Boston College and shooting an astounding 63% from the 3 point line, albeit very early in the season. Look for that number to drop, but don't look for his contributions to be any less on a nightly basis as he has proven he has what it takes to produce big time numbers against solid competition. The Panthers also have big man Jordan Eglseder clogging up the middle, standing at 7-1 and nearly 300 pounds, his presence alongside Koch gives Northern Iowa the best front court in the league and one of the bigger, stronger frontcourts in the entire country. Rounding out the very solid starting 5 are Ali Farokhmanesh, a 3 point specialist and all freshman team returnee Johnny Moran who gives them solid defense in the backcourt. The Panthers bench is also very deep and Lucas O'Rear is the first man off that bench, a do everything kind of guy who gives you hustle, defense and a few timely shots here and there.
Coach Ben Jacobsen's crew is my pick to win the Valley this year and as its representative, I fully expect them to break the first round jinx that has hampered them as of late. This team is too big, too talented and too experienced to not make it out of the opening round. A good start to the year has them in a strong position for an at-large should they need it, and big upcoming games against Siena and Iowa at home as well as a tricky little road test against Iowa State could help solidify them as a solid NCAA tourney team were they to win all 3. Of course the easy thing to do would be to repeat as Valley Tourney Champs, but we all know how hard that is to do. Regardless, I fully expect the Panthers to be in the tourney one way or another this year.
Old Dominion University
We finally come to my alma matter, so I figured I'd go ahead and announce this fact before I get started with the preview. Secondly, this preview is being written AFTER ODU's losses to Missouri and Miss. St., so that factor is going to be added in as well. Old Dominion University has been resurrected under Coach Blaine Taylor. After a short period of irrelevance around the turn of the century under Jeff Capel's reign as head coach, Blaine Taylor took over a program in disarray. With the help of a brand new arena and the discovery of an overseas gem in Alex Loughton, Coach Taylor got the Monarchs back on the winning track, taking them to the NCAA tourney in 04-05 and helping them to their first CAA regular season and tourney title in nearly 8 years. Since that season, ODU has had the most wins of any school in the state of Virginia and has been a contender for the CAA crown every year, never finishing worse than 4th in the league. However, in that same time period, ODU has failed to win an NCAA tourney game, while watching their fellow VA/CAA brethren George Mason and VCU go to the Final 4 and upset Duke and take Pitt to OT, respectively. The majority of ODU fans are hoping this is the year that the Monarchs finally get it done, not only making the NCAA tourney, but winning their first game since their upset of Villanova in the first round back in 1995.
The Monarch fans have good reason to be excited about their teams prospects, returning 10 of 11 players from last years 25 win team. This experienced, deep team is led by CAA preseason Player of the Year and 08-09 All CAA First Team C Gerald Lee. The 6-10, 250 pound senior European import is as solid a player as you will find on the mid-major level. He is skilled with both hands around the rim, has a solid mid-range game, can put in on the floor and attack the rim or help break a press and is in the top 3 or 4 free throw shooters in the CAA. The Monarchs will most likely go as far as Gerald Lee can take them, at least when it comes to the CAA tourney and especially if they make the postseason. However, during the course of the season, the Monarchs will get solid contributions from a number of returning players. Ben Finney is a 6-5, 220 pound, tough, versatile defender who can play a variety of positions, attack the rim, rebound well (he led the Monarchs in that stat last year) and really gives the Monarchs a nasty streak. They will rely on his team first attitude and all out hustle when they need a spark this year. Rounding out the front court is 6"8, 245 pound junior Frank Hassell, a solid post player with a wide body who helps the Monarchs fill the paint and cleans the glass with authority. The Monarchs front court is experienced but unproven with Darius James running the point and Marsharee Neely as the only other returning senior who will start most games at SG. The Monarchs are going to need these two to step up along with 6-5 sophmore Kent Bazemore, as teams will more than likely pack the middle against the Monarchs frontcourt and at times force the backcourt to beat them. If the Monarchs can hit from deep, they can be one of the better teams in the country. If they are off, they will have a tough time winning in a very talented and deep CAA this year.
As the preseason favorites to win the CAA this year, the Monarchs missed two very good opportunities to prove they are for real with losses to BCS teams Miss. St. and Missouri in the South Padre Island Invitational. On the bright side however, the Monarchs will have a chance to avenge that performance with a road trip to the winner of that tourney, the Richmond Spiders, coming up on Wed. If the Monarchs are able to win that game, and perhaps pick off Dayton or Georgetown later in the season, the Monarchs at-large profile would start looking better. Regardless, they are a very deep squad with a lot of experience who should be able to win the CAA regular season title. However, as results have shown in recent years, the CAA tourney is a gauntlet and the Monarchs may very well have missed an opportunity to play themselves into the tourney should they bow out early in Richmond. The Monarchs are definetly a team to keep an eye on as the season progresses, but they are going to need more production from there back court if they are going to make the tourney and certainly if they are going to do damage in March.
Portland Pilots
Portland was the last addition to this years preview of Mid Major Bubble teams. I'm not going to lie to you and tell you that they were on my radar for an at-large before the Anaheim tourney in which they competed so valiantly, but the beauty of this blog is that we actually waited a few games into the season to make our first preview of the teams we consider at-large candidates, so having seen them play now, we can honestly say that Portland is definetly a bubble team who can play there way in or out of the tournament depending on how they handle the rest of their OOC schedule and how they finish in a 4 way race for 1st in the solid WCC this year. Either way, the West Coast Conference IS a multiple bid league this year and Portland very well could be one of those bids.
Eric Reveno has to be considered an early candidate for coach of the year, having taken a program that was considered one of the worst in the WCC just a few years ago to a darkhorse candidate to win the conference and make the NCAA tourney. He has built Portland up around a solid "team first" concept, a concept which was clearly on display in the 76 tournament this past weekend. Led by undersized guard T.J. Campbell and the experienced 6-4 wing Nik Raivio, the Pilots used some hot shooting in the first 2 rounds of the tourney to score major upsets over UCLA and a very good Minnesota squad. They were hardly the only players contributing however, as G Jared Stohl and C Robin Smeulders contributed solidly to the box score along with solid frontcourt defense from Ethan Neidermeyer, Kramer Knutson and Luke Sikma.
This total team effort helped lead the Pilots to a second place finish in a VERY good 8 team tournament in Anaheim. This was a tourney that was broadcast on ESPN and ESPN2 all weekend long, which could end up going a long way towards helping the Pilots come Selection Sunday in March. Minnesota is going to be a very good win at the end of the year, Oregon, Stanford and UCLA give them three more BCS wins, albeit against a very down Pac 10 trio, and they still have several big opportunities to solidify their spot in the Big Dance should they manage to knock off the best team in the Pac 10 in the Washington Huskies, another very solid team in Nevada, and several opportunities to take down other at-large candidate teams in their conference against San Diego, Gonzaga and St. Mary's. The next several weeks will be crucial as Portland will try to avoid let downs after such a tremendous tournament, but have no doubt that Coach Reveno will have his team ready to play, believing in their team first attitude and trying to solidify their spot as a tournament team in a multi-bid WCC.
Siena Saints
Last year's "Cinderella", as CBS would like to call them, was anything but. On the contrary, Siena proved all year that they were for real and were hardly a fairy tale story. Their first round "upset" of Ohio State was in fact the product of solid recruiting, development of players and coaching by Fran McCaffrey and came as little surprise to us here in Mid Major land as most of us knew all along how good Siena was. When they went on the road and beat Northern Iowa in the Bracketbusters, we knew this was going to be a VERY tough team to beat in the NCAA tourney and sure enough, they upset Ohio State and took Louisville to the wire.
This years team is going to be no exception, returning a solid group of players in 6-10 Center Ryan Rossiter, 6-6 wing Edwin Ubiles and 6-5 forward Alex Franklin. They will no doubt miss All MAAC guard Kenny Hasbrouck, but should more be able to make up his scoring with increased production from Ubiles and Franklin. Rounding out the starting 5 are guard Clarence Jackson and Ronald Moore, with Jackson being the 3 point specialist and Moore the defensive dynamo. They give Siena a solid starting 5 that can give any team trouble, provided they are hitting their outside shots the way they are capable of. The Saints also have solid depth, and look to Owen Wignot, O.D. Anosike and Kyle Downey off the bench to give them a spark should they need one. Time will tell if this group can take up the slack for the departed do-everything Hasbrouck, but they certainly have the solid nucleus of players to make an impact later on in the season.
Last year, Siena was an unknown to most in the BCS dominated media, but this years team should surprise no one as they return a solid group of players being lead by one of the better coaches in the country in Fran McCaffrey. They have dropped some tough games early, including a squeaker against a very good Temple team and a tough loss to an improved St. John's team in the Philly Hoop Classic, but they have a good win over Northeastern and have a few more opportunities to get marquee wins with games against Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa in the next several days. The MAAC is much improved this year, with Iona, Niagara, Rider and Siena all fielding very good teams. Should they survive the conference slate with a good record, win the two OOC games against Northern Iowa and GT, make it to their conference tourney final and lose, Siena would have a very strong case for an at-large birth this year. As it stands now, they are most certainly a bubble team with several good opportunities to get a marquee win or two.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
The Rams are a bit of a mystery this year to TourneyBubble, and who can blame us with their schizophrenic start? A team that dominated Oklahoma and soundly beat a good Nevada team also lost by 16 to Western Michigan in surely one of the strangest games of the year. VCU looked like world beaters in the first half of that game up by as much as 17 at one point in the first half and 7 at the break, only to get completely dominated in the second half by a team they really should have handled. Of course, no one can blame the Rams for having an identity crisis after the departure of one of the best CAA players in the last 15 years in guard Eric Maynor, but they certainly have been able to rebound nicely after that mystifying loss by dominating Oklahoma and leading from start to finish against a very game Nevada side. The Rams have a very talented group of players that will be bolstered even more when transfer Jamie Skeen becomes eligible in a few weeks.
When Anthony Grant and Eric Maynor left VCU this off-season, many CAA fans thought the Rams reign as CAA Champs might come to an end. But new Head Coach Shaka Smart and All CAA First-teamer Larry Sanders seem to have other ideas. Grant left a wealth of talented players for Coach Smart and so far, they have hardly missed a step under their new leader. Sanders is the player to watch on this squad, a Mid-Major All-American who has the potential to be the best player in the CAA and a NBA lottery pick. He is hardly alone in the backcourt though, as Wake Forest transfer Jamie Skeen will become eligible in the second half of the season, giving the Rams one of the top two front courts in the CAA along with Old Dominion. On any given night however, the Rams frontcourt could end up being the best in the CAA and perhaps even one of the best in the country. Rounding out the starting 5 will be undersized guard Joey Rodriguez, a pesky defender and solid 3 point shooter who will have to step up if this team is going to contend for a CAA title and possibly even an at-large bid. The Rams also boast two of the best outside shooters in the CAA right now in guards Jay Gavin and Bradford Burgess. Gavin, a transfer from Marist after making the All-MAAC freshman team, has been an early revelation for the Rams, giving them solid outside shooting and averaging nearly 11 a game despite having sat out a year due to the transfer. The 6-5 Burgess, however, is a known commodity in the CAA, making the All-freshman team last year and leading the Rams in scoring this year from the small forward position. The Rams have had balance on the offensive end this year, having 7 players averaging over 6 points a game. Guards Brandon Rozzell and Ed Nixon have given Coach Smart solid minutes off the bench early and front court players T.J. Gwynn and Kirill Pishchalnikov have done a solid job of shoring up the forward positions while Skeen is still sitting out.
Overall, the Rams and Coach Smart have done a tremendous job of picking up the pieces after Grant and Maynor's departures, and he has this athletic, tenacious, defensive-minded team already competing at a very high level, which will surely help bolster their bid to 4peat as CAA Regular Season Champions. As far as an at-large bid goes, the Rams have several more chances for solid OOC wins with games against a very good Richmond team and a solid Rhode Island team on the horizon. They would be greatly helped by a high profile Bracketbuster game which could help put the Rams back on the radar on the selection committee later in the season. The CAA is going to be very tough this year, so the Rams best bet at getting an at-large might be to run the table in the rest of their OOC games, something they are certainly capable of doing. There is no doubt though that the Rams have the talent to make it back to the NCAA tourney yet again, and if Sanders can repeat his performance from last years first round game against UCLA, the Rams could again make some noise like they did in 06-07.
Other Mid-Major Teams to Watch
Right now, there are several Mid-Major teams that have played better early than some of the teams on our Preview. However, we have decided to stick with our original teams that we expected to make noise in mid-major land (with the exception of Portland) in order to give you the best feel for mid-major basketball. Right now, a case could be made for the inclusion of several good teams who have been hot early, teams like William and Mary, Richmond, Missouri St., St. Mary's, Cornell and San Diego. I assure you, we will keep an eye on these teams all year long and should they continue to keep up their impressive play, they will be added to the list of Mid-Majors we have on the bubble. Right now we simply have a rough outline of teams we think are going to make noise. The long haul of the season will separate the pretenders from the contenders. The teams in the preview are the teams we think are the Real McCoy. We could end up being wrong and the teams we listed in the "Watch" section could end up being the better teams from mid-major land, but we will let the OOC portion of the schedule finish before we start our first real bubble watch for both the mids and the BCS schools. If you disagree with the teams we have listed, let us know why and who we should really be looking at in terms of post-season prowess. Enjoy the season!
