Well, we are almost a month into College Basketball season and already, tourneybubble's mid-major preview is shot to hell. ODU and GMU are pretty much already eliminated from at-large contention (ODU needs to win at Georgetown and at Dayton to have a chance, so in other words, it probably isn't happening) and a couple other mids have taken gas early.
Siena has no bad losses but at the same time, has no good wins, missing chances to beat a good Temple team as well as a road win against Gtown. But my good lord, is their upcoming road game at Northern Iowa looking like a fantastic bracketbuster matchup, only its just a really really solid OOC game. This Saturday, mark it on your schedule and try and catch it on channelsurfing if you can, it should be an absolute war. Northern Iowa is solidly in at-large contention with wins over Boston College, Iowa State and Iowa. Defending their home turf against Siena will be crucial, but they are in very good position for an at-large right now.
Portland has been the most disappointing team of all, following up their wins over Oregon, UCLA and Minnesota with beatdowns against West Virginia (excusable) and a 20 point loss to Idaho (inexcusable) mixed in with a competitive but still poor home loss to Portland State. A very poor follow up to a great early part of the season. They will need to beat both Gonzaga and St. Mary's at least once this year as well as put a decent record in the rugged WCC to stay in at-large contention. Right now they are on the outside looking in. Right now all they are really doing is providing a chance for St. Mary's to get 1 more quality in conference win to help boost the Gael's at-large candidacy.
Butler has also missed a chance to solidify their spot in the NCAA tourney by losing to every ranked team they've played. Clemson, Minnesota and Georgetown are all understandable losses and Butler's SOS looks very good right now, but their best wins are against a decent Valley team in Evansville and a solid Big 10 school in Northwestern, but neither of which will get them into the tourney. They still have several big chances though as they get Ohio State and Xavier at home in the next 2 weeks. Winning both of those should help assure them a spot in the NCAA tourney were they to lose in the Horizon league tourney. Still a long ways away from being safe though.
Creighton has also been very disappointing, losing all their marquee win opporunities against good teams in losses to Michigan, Dayton and Xavier, but then dropping a stinker to Iona really put them in trouble. George Mason and a very good New Mexico team provide them with their last 2 opportunities to get solid OOC road wins, but they would need to put up a hell of a MVC record and it just doesn't look like they have the team to do it this year. On a side note, New Mexico looks like a tourney team this year. Their 9-0 start was bolstered by a good win over Cal, but we will see just exactly how legit they are Saturday at home against ranked Texas A&M. A win there will put them solidly in the tourney right now.
The best mid-major picks we made for at-large candidacy were Illinois State (undefeated right now) and Northern Iowa (playing great basketball) and the worst two picks we made were Portland (jumping on their bandwagon way too early) and George Mason (way too young this year to get the consistent play worthy of an at-large). On a side note, we mentioned William and Mary, Richmond, Missouri St, St. Mary's and Cornell as teams to keep and eye on. All 5 are posting legit, tourney worthy resumes right now and are solidly in contention for at-larges. The Tribes wins over Richmond, Wake Forest and VCU all look legit, Richmond's only loss is to said W&M team with wins over Miss St., Missouri and ODU, Missouri St. is undefeated, St. Mary's has 1 loss at home to Vandy by 2 points and Cornell has only lost to two Big East teams in Syracuse and Seton Hall. All 5 are still teams to keep an eye on.
One final note......Tourneybubble.com would like to send condolences to the ears of all 3 referee's who had to work the Maryland-Villanova BB&T Classic game at the Verizon Center this past weekend. Having to listen to the complaints of the two whiniest, snivelling, bitching, moaning jerk-off coaches in college basketball for 2 straight hours must have surely forced the trio to go Vincent Van Gogh on themselves so they never have to put up with that kind of crap again. Sorry fella's, but on the bright side, you will never have to officiate for two more vile coaches at the same time at any point in the rest of your careers. It's all gravy from here guys.
