The following five low and mid majors have played their way onto the Bubble. If you're a true mid-major you better have a top-50 RPI to get any attention from the Selection Committee, and these guys do. You also better have a legit nonconference win to show them, and all of these teams have that as well. While the profiles look great now, keeping the RPI up in the slippery slope of mid major conference play will be a difficult challenge. I'm not including the Missouri Valley Conference teams (Northern Iowa, Missouri State, etc.) because they have a lot more wiggle room than the teams below. It's safe to say that the top teams in the MVC have a good enough profile and RPI that a league title would sew up an NCAA bid.
Western Carolina (8-1, RPI 18)
What They Have: Win at Louisville, vs. Duquesne
What They Need: A 16-2 or better SoCon record or a win at Clemson. The Catamounts won wire to wire at Louisville, who was wounded a bit by injuries. Still, their only loss is to Texas and that is not exactly something to be ashamed about. The SoCon can be a drag on RPI (just ask 08-09 Davidson), so winning almost all of their conference games should keep them above 50 in the RPI and in real contention for a bid. A win at Clemson would give them a legit at-large case and some breathing room for a couple of bad losses.
William & Mary (6-2, RPI 20)
What They Have: Wins vs. Richmond, VCU and at Wake Forest
What They Need: 15-3 in the CAA would put the Tribe in serious at-large contention. A tough game at Radford is followed by a golden opportunity at Maryland, with a win in College Park probably being enough to give them an NCAA-worthy nonconference profile. A win there also means they could absorb a fourth or fifth CAA loss and still be in the discussion. Don’t expect the RPI to slip too much during CAA play unless they really hit a rough patch.
Cornell (7-2, RPI 22)
What They Have: Win at Alabama, strong SOS
What They Need: A win at Kansas is probably too much to ask, but the Big Red may need something to boost the resume. They have a few nice road wins and no bad losses, but they can only lose a maximum of two Ivy games to have any chance of an at-large. If Alabama emerges as a top-25 team, the lone “marquee” win will start to look better and better. If the RPI stays in the 30’s, it would be tough to overlook them.
VCU (6-2, RPI 25)
What They Have: Wins vs. Oklahoma, Richmond and Rhode Island
What They Need: The Rams are in a good position, avoiding the awful losses early in the season that hampered their at-large case in the past two seasons (ahem- Hampton). The nonconference profile is very good so far with wins over three possible NCAA teams, and the RPI should remain in the 25-40 range if they take care of business in the CAA. 15-2 the rest of the way (they have already made the tough trip to William & Mary) in league play should be enough to have a legitimate at-large case.
Harvard (7-2, RPI 42)
What They Have: A nice win at Boston College, vs. William & Mary
What They Need: A very strong second in the Ivy – coupled with a win over Georgetown - could do the trick for Jeremy Lin and company. The Georgetown game is the key to their hopes, with a win putting them in the running with just a decent Ivy showing (11-3 or 12-2) and a loss forcing them to lose a maximum of two more games all year to still be in discussion. The Army loss is pretty bad, but a win at BC is a nice thing to have in hand for a low-major. The win over William & Mary could also come in handy. If they run the table in the Ivy outside of Cornell and lose a close tiebreaker game, we could be looking at a 24-4 team with a a ceritifiable star in Lin and a decent RPI.
