Big week of college basketball coming up, time for the movers and shakers to step up and the pretenders to sit down. A quick preview of the action you should keep an eye on this week.
The Big Games to Watch this week:
Tuesday's obvious big time games as far as the bubble is concerned:
Kentucky at Miss St. - A big game for Miss St., if they are somehow able to knock off Kentucky at home, they are back on the good side of the bubble.
Wake Forest at Va Tech - A huge game for the Hokies, taking care of business at home against a top 25 team would once and for all silence the critics of their weak OOC schedule. It would also put them closer to the top of the very tight ACC.
Tuesday's not so obvious big time game:
Creighton at Northern Iowa - Most people have Northern Iowa as a lock out of the Missouri Valley and deservedly so, but the suspension of Center Jordan Eglseder has changed things drastically. They lost on Saturday to a very mediocre Bradley team with him, so this game becomes of the utmost importance with Old Dominion rolling into town on Friday. Were they to lose this game and then lose to ODU on Friday, that would be a 3 game losing streak coming down the back stretch of the season. When you take into account their fairly weak OOC schedule and lack of a real marquee win (Siena is close, but not a lock as a marquee win), a 3 game losing streak this late in the season could really hurt. Keep an eye on this game to see how they do without the big man.
Wednesday's obvious big time games afatbic:
Texas at Missouri - Texas has been on a real slide of late, but they are still a top 25 team and a lock for the tournament. Missouri, however, is not a lock, but they could push themselves closer to lock status with a home win over the Longhorns. A loss pushes them closer to .500 in the Big 12 with Kansas and K State both on the horizon.
Notre Dame at Louisville - Two of my least favorite teams duke it out in a battle of mediocrity so epic, we might just have the first ever double loss in NCAA history. The only sure thing is that ESPN putting this game on national TV makes us all losers. Hopefully Pitino busts out his white scarface suit again. I hate even adding this game because I loathe it, but both of these teams are bubble contenders right now, so there you have it. Here's to no fouls and no timeouts during this game so it will be over as quickly as possible. In my opinion, neither of these teams deserves to be in the NCAA tourney but undoubtedly, one of them will make it. Here's to being able to bet against either of these teams in the first round.
Wednesday's not so obvious big time games:
UNLV at Utah - UNLV really needs to win this game. They have a great resume, but they have been fading down the stretch a bit, losing their last two games by double digits. They've already lost once to Utah this year and could ill afford to be swept by a mediocre Utah team. Utah is always a tough place to play, so they really need to bring their A game on Wednesday in order to keep from dropping 3 straight after their big win over BYU. A loss could potentially drop them as low as 4th place in the MWC, something that could surely hurt them come Selection Sunday.
Louisiana Tech at Utah State - neither of these teams really has a GREAT at-large candidacy right now, with LT having lost 2 of their last 4 in a sweep to New Mexico State and Utah State dropping disappointing early season tests against Northeastern, Utah and Long Beach State. USU has, however, won 10 in a row and could really help out their cause by taking revenge on a LT team that beat them by 22 points earlier this season. A good revenge win on national TV (ESPN2), coupled with another national TV win against Wichita State in the Bracketbusters later this week, could really put the Aggies back into the bubble picture as those victories would be the icing on top of a 12 game winning streak cake. Miss this game at your own peril.
Thursday's obvious big time games afatbic:
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss - Vanderbilt is solidly in the NCAA tournament due to their great SEC record and solid OOC performance. Ole Miss, however, is floundering having lost 3 of their last 4 in conference to end up at .500 in the SEC. A big home win over a ranked Vandy team would due their bubble resume wonders. Both teams are probably in right now, but Ole Miss could really help solidify a spot by knocking off the Commodores at home. A loss, however, drops them below .500 in the SEC, never a good idea when trying to claim and at-large spot.
Pitt at Marquette - Another rough and tumble game in the Big East, Marquette has put themselves back into bubble consideration by winning 5 in a row in the tough Big East, albeit against 5 of the weakest teams in the conference. With 3 tough road games coming up against decent but not great Big East teams, a home clash with Pitt is a must have for Marquette to stay in the bubble discussion.
Thursday's not so obvious big time game:
St. Mary's at San Diego - Wow, St. Mary's has really dug itself a hole. The Gaels had a solid OOC resume, with BLOWOUT wins over New Mexico State and San Diego St. and good wins at Utah State and on a neutral court to Northeastern. However, since then, they have failed to get a marquee win over conference rival Gonzaga on two occasions and have dropped tough games to Portland and Southern Cal. Lacking a true "marquee win" puts St. Mary's in a precarious position thus making this road test against the worst team in the conference a MUST WIN. I have no doubt that they will pull this one off, but if they don't, they can kiss their at-large hopes goodbye.
Friday's obvious big time games afatbic:
Old Dominion at Northern Iowa - The kickoff to the Bracketbusters is a doozy, as the Monarchs travel to Cedar Falls to take on the wounded animal that is the Panthers of Northern Iowa. Having already lost to a mediocre Bradley team, the Panthers suffered further agony when it was learned that All-conference Center Jordan Eglseder was arrested on suspicion of DUI and will be suspended for 3 games, including this one. Northern Iowa lacks a true "marquee win", so were they to lose this game or the Creighton game previous to this, they may end up back on the bubble when they were once considered a lock. The Monarchs are a tough team to play when you are fully armed due to their size and length on the defensive end, so taking away the middle of their defense as well as their best rebounder certainly can not help the Panthers. ODU, on the other hand, can really help solidify their spot in the NCAA tournament with a great late-season road win against a MVC team, a la George Mason in 2005-06. Should be a great game to watch between two of the top 3 defenses in the country.
Friday's not so obvious big time game:
Cornell at Harvard - What can you say about the Big Red's loss to lowly Penn, one of the worst teams in college basketball? Well, other than "ouch!" Cornell was a top 25 team prior to that setback, but man, that is really going to hurt come Selection Sunday. Quite frankly, that is the WORST loss of any "bubble team" in college basketball. No other team being considered for an at-large has a loss that bad. While Cornell's overall record of 21-4 is very impressive, they also lack a "marquee win" to offset that terrible loss to the Quakers. So with that in mind, their rematch with the second best team in the Ivy, Harvard, has become a must win. They can really help themselves stay on the bubble by getting what would be a solid road win in what is a below-average conference in the Ivy.
Saturday's obvious big time games afatbic: Too many to list as this might as well be "decision Saturday" so I'll just list the two or three most important games as it pertains to the bubble.
Illinois at Purdue - Big time game for the Illini. A road win at rival Purdue would more than likely lock up a bubble spot for them, whereas a loss puts them into the double digits for the season and combined with some shaky losses earlier in the season, would leave the Illini with a question mark come Selection Sunday. A win at Purdue all but assures them an at-large.
Siena at Butler - We could probably throw half the Bracketbusters into this list as having an effect on the bubble, but this game could have the most dramatic impact of them all. Siena is not in the tournament right now, at least in this basketball fans humble opinion. Their loss to UNI, their loss to Niagara and their lack of a marquee win really has the Saints in a tough spot. However, a win at Butler would give them signature win (and a road win at that), that is so highly regarded by the selection committee. A loss could have numerous effects when combined with the UNI-ODU outcome. Right now, UNI's best win is Siena. While it was a good win, were Siena to drop this game and UNI to lose at home to Old Dominion, both teams could end up playing themselves right out of the at-large pool. While it is a tough ask of Siena, it will be hard to justify an at-large for them with no real marquee win despite several opportunities to get one. Riveting stuff and why the Bracketbusters is a great idea, because it gives a team like Siena a chance to make a statement on a national stage. Butler is assured a spot, but Siena now has a chance to stake a claim for itself as a bubble worthy team.
Other big time games that are obvious but still bear mentioning (quick synopsis) -
Baylor at Ok State - The Cowboys get have a chance to get a top 25 win at home.
Florida at Ole Miss - basically a play in game between two middle of the pack SEC teams desperate for another solid win.
Georgia Tech at Maryland - The winner is likely in the tourney, the loser could really be sweating it out come Selection Sunday.
Xavier at Charlotte - Should be an absolute war in the A-10 as both teams are currently 8-2 in the conference and looking to shore up their at-large resumes. The A-10 will definitely get AT LEAST 4 teams in this year and the winner of this game will have the upper hand one claiming one of those spots.
UTEP at Tulsa - CUSA is looking to take advantage of a weak Pac-10 by trying to get multi-bids yet again this year. UTEP has a very weak OOC resume, but is currently 10-1 in a tough CUSA. A win at Tulsa could help them really gain control of the conference and put them right smack in the middle of the bubble, while a Tulsa win could reignite the bubble hopes of a team struggling down the stretch.
UVA at Clemson - a play-in game, the loser is pretty much eliminated from bubble contention, the winner lives to fight another day.
Wichita State at Utah State - Another great Bracketbuster game, the winner helps solidify their conference as a "multi-bid conference" the loser will most assuredly have to win their conference tourney to get into the dance. Should be a very dramatic game with alot on the line for several teams, not just the ones playing.
Saturday's not so obvious big time game:
Louisiana Tech at Northeastern: This is an underrated game for several reasons. For one, while neither team is likely to get an at-large, both teams are in conferences that could end up with multiple bids. ODU and W&M and to a lesser degree VCU and NE all have at-large claims, the former with much better cases than the latter. Regardless, Northeastern is currently tied for first place in the CAA and a solid OOC win against a good Bulldogs team late in the season could really help the CAA's overall profile if/when combined with other Bracketbuster results. Vice versa, were Northeastern to lose at home to LT, it would give the Bulldogs a solid OOC victory, helping to boost not only their at-large candidacy, but that of Utah State as well. This WAC-CAA battle could end up being a bloody war between two teams who will have it all on the line, an absolutely must-watch in my opinion.
Sunday's obvious big time games afatbic:
Virginia Tech at Duke - The Hokies big chance to secure an at-large spot by getting a sorely needed marquee win on the road. Duke is undefeated at home this year, so it is certainly a tough ask of the Hokies, but a road win at Cameron would all but guarantee them a spot. It's definetly not "do or die" for VT, but this would definitely help their case and answer the questions of those critics who point to their lack of a top 50 road win this year.
Marquette at Cincinnati - An ugly game for two ugly teams, but Cincy has more to lose with a home loss and MU has more to gain with a road win. Either way, I won't be watching this one but as far as the bubble is concerned, its big.
Sunday's not so obvious big time game:
Dayton at Duquesne - While it might not get noticed on a national level, this A-10 matchup could be huge for the conference and for Dayton. A road loss to an around .500 Duquense could kill off Dayton's at-large chances. They simply have to have this road win to stay in the top 4 in the A-10. Losing this game could impact their resume and really hurt them when you compare them with the other A-10 at-large teams. Definitely the potential for an upset here, so keep an eye on this one.
