A huge bubble weekend awaits - details below.
ACC
Analysis: UVA’s fade means that only seven teams have legitimate at-large aspirations. Georgia Tech has a very tough closing stretch to finish at 8-8 in the conference – although stealing a road win at Maryland or Clemson would pretty much sew up a bid. This weekend Virginia Tech faces a no-lose game at Duke, and Maryland needs only a win over Georgia Tech to wrap up an at-large. Florida State needs two of their last four to feel comfortable, but they have the ability to win all four and remove all doubt.
Locks: 
Near Locks: Virginia Tech (21-4, 8-3 RPI 47); Maryland (17-7, 8-3 RPI 37); Florida State (19-7, 7-5 RPI 40)
Bubble: Clemson (18-7, 6-5 RPI 35); Georgia Tech (17-8, 6-6 RPI 29)
Treading Water: Virginia (14-10, 5-6 RPI 108)
Atlantic 10
Analysis: Charlotte lost a damaging home game against Duquesne and slides down the A-10 pecking order. Xavier must go to Charlotte and Saint Louis before hosting Richmond, an absolutely crucial stretch. Two of three should ensure them a bid. Rhode Island is also fading badly with three straight losses and only four top-100 wins. Their last four are manageable, and they will probably need to win out in the regular season to have a good shot. Dayton is also in need of another statement win – a win at Temple or Richmond would be extremely helpful to their cause.
Locks: 
Near Locks: Xavier (18-7, 9-2 RPI 25)
Bubble: Rhode Island (19-6, 7-5 RPI 26); Dayton (17-7, 6-4 RPI 34); Charlotte (18-7, 8-3 RPI 51); Saint Louis (16-8, 8-3 RPI 84)
Treading Water: None
Big East
Analysis: The logjam in the middle of the Big East continues. Out of the seven teams jockeying for position, Louisville seems to be in the best shape. The rest of teams have plenty of negatives on their resume. Only perhaps Seton Hall or UConn could survive a 9-9 Big East record, so we will let this mess sort itself out and see which teams can get to 10-8 in the Big East before diving into it farther.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Louisville (17-9, 8-5 RPI 30); Cincinnati (15-10, 6-7 RPI 50); Marquette (16-9, 7-6 RPI 62); South Florida (16-9, 6-7 RPI 56); Connecticut (15-11, 5-8 RPI 48); Seton Hall (15-9, 6-7 RPI 54)
Treading Water: Notre Dame (17-10, 6-8 RPI 77)
Big Ten
Analysis: Minnesota got a big home win last night over Wisconsin to rescue their at-large chances. Next up are home games with Indiana and Purdue – win those two, and they are back in business. Illinois needs a good showing over the last five games to feel comfortable – winning both home games and either at Purdue or Ohio State could very well wrap things up.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Illinois (17-9, 9-4 RPI 71); Minnesota (15-10, 6-7 RPI 83)
Treading Water: Northwestern (17-9, 6-8 RPI 90)
Big 12
Analysis: Another fairly ordered conference; only Oklahoma State and Missouri would really sweat if today were Selection Sunday. Oklahoma State has a nice RPI but just four top-100 wins. They need to make hay in the final stretch with games against Baylor, Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M. Missouri could use another big time win to wrap up a spot in the field, but they need to be careful and beat the teams they are supposed to. Texas Tech has home games with Texas, Kansas State and Baylor left to try and get back onto the bubble.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Oklahoma State (18-7, 6-5 RPI 35); Missouri (19-7, 7-4 RPI 38)
Treading Water: Texas Tech (16-9, 4-7 RPI 43)
Conference USA
Analysis: Everyone in CUSA needs something – UAB can make a strong at-large case by winning out, UTEP needs to win tough roadies at Tulsa and Marshall, and Memphis just needs to keep winning. Tulsa and Marshall have just two top-100 wins each, which keeps them off the bubble for now. Can Tulsa beat Duke? They probably have to win in Cameron to deserve at-large consideration.
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: UAB (20-5, 8-3 RPI 31); UTEP (19-5, 10-1 RPI 57); Memphis (19-7, 9-2 RPI 61)
Treading Water: Marshall (16-7, 7-4 RPI 63); Tulsa (18-7, 8-4 RPI 70)
Missouri Valley
Analysis: UNI is safe for now, but a tough game against ODU becomes tougher without lane-clogging Jordan Eglseder available because of suspension. Wichita State should finish at 23-6, 13-5, but they have only a win over Texas Tech in the nonconference and two very bad losses to Drake and Evansville.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Wichita State (21-6, 11-5 RPI 53)
Treading Water: None
Mountain West
Analysis: Ouch. Getting swept by Utah puts UNLV in a very precarious position. The final four MWC games should be a breeze, but those two losses could offset their very good wins over BYU, at New Mexico and Louisville. San Diego State has good computer numbers, but also have just three top-100 wins along with damaging losses to Pacific and Wyoming. Their best chance to make a move is a game at BYU.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: UNLV (18-7, 7-5 RPI 44); San Diego State (17-7, 8-4 RPI 39)
Treading Water: None
Pac 10
Analysis: On the surface, these teams look like legit at-large candidates, but it doesn’t take long to see the ugly truth: Cal is 4-6 vs. the top-100, Arizona State is 2-7 and Washington is 6-6 but with a couple bad losses. Should Cal or UW win out in the regular season, they are the only two teams that could feel good about their chances on Selection Sunday.
Locks: None
Near Locks: California (17-8, 9-4 RPI 21)
Bubble: Arizona State (18-8, 8-5 RPI 67); Washington (17-8, 7-6 RPI 52)
Treading Water: None
SEC
Analysis: Saturday’s Florida at Ole Miss bubble showdown is crucial for both teams. Mississippi State missed their chance at Kentucky, but they own a sweep of Ole Miss and have a home shot at Tennessee to close out the season.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Florida (18-8, 7-4 RPI 60); Mississippi State (18-8, 6-5 RPI 64); Mississippi (17-8, 5-6 RPI 49)
Treading Water: South Carolina (14-11, 5-6 RPI 76)
West Coast
Analysis: St. Mary’s has nice OOC wins over San Diego State, Northeastern and at Utah State, but they failed to beat Gonzaga to further distinguish themselves. Will winning out until the WCC final be enough? Maybe, but they will need a lot of carnage above them.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: St. Mary’s (20-5, 8-3 RPI 45)
Treading Water: Portland (15-8, 7-3 RPI 75)
Others
Analysis: Expect a big reshuffling after Bracket Busters Weekend. Siena needs the game at Butler to back up their good computer numbers. Should Old Dominion take advantage of a shorthanded NIU team and then beat Georgia State and VCU, they would more than likely lock up an at-large bid. Those treading water can only continue winning and hope for the best – even though each of them isn’t very far from serious consideration.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: William & Mary (18-7, 11-5 RPI 46-CAA); Cornell (19-4, 7-1 RPI 55-Ivy); Old Dominion (21-7, 13-3 RPI 41-CAA); Siena (22-5, 15-1 RPI 33-MAAC); Utah State (20-6, 11-2 RPI 36-WAC)
Treading Water: VCU (18-7, 10-6 RPI 65-CAA); Louisiana Tech (20-6, 8-4 RPI 73-WAC); Murray State (23-3, 16-0 RPI 79-OVC); Northeastern (18-9, 13-3 RPI 59-CAA); Kent State (18-8, 10-3 RPI 58-MAC); Sam Houston State (15-5, 11-0 RPI 69-Southland); Oakland (18-8, 14-1 RPI 66-Summit); Nevada (15-9, 8-4 RPI 68-WAC)
