Our dreams seem to be coming true - should Arizona State or Washington lose one more game and if California wins the Pac-10 tournament, we will have our first one bid year from a Big Six conference in the modern era. It couldn't happen to a better league, as we have been force fed crap Pac-10 teams with losing records (uh, Arizona) for the past couple of years in the NCAA Tournament. You're not fooling anybody, Pac-10, you sucked all along. With that out of the way, an unfortunate performance for the CAA in the Bracket Busters left our "Others" column devoid of quality at-large candidates. The bubble is rapidly contracting amongst the power conferences, where teams are finding real seperation between the contenders and the pretenders.
ACC
Analysis: Georgia Tech is in trouble after a heartbreaking loss at Maryland. They need to finish 8-8 in league play to feel even remotely comfortable. A bubble showdown at Clemson could be decisive. Clemson is roughly in the same boat, but has to steal at least one on the road to get to 9-7 and feel good about their chances. Maryland could use one more win to ensure a bid, since a 5-7 record against the top-100 is holding them back for now. 10 ACC wins will remove all doubt. Virginia Tech needs two more wins, as does Florida State, to lock up their places.
Locks: 
Near Locks: Virginia Tech (21-5, 8-4 RPI 44); Maryland (18-7, 9-3 RPI 36); Florida State (19-7, 7-5 RPI 40)
Bubble: Georgia Tech (17-9, 6-7 RPI 33); Clemson (19-7, 7-5 RPI 35)
Treading Water: None
Atlantic 10
Analysis: What once was considered a five or six bid league is quickly losing quality NCAA resumes. Dayton, Rhode Island and Charlotte are putting up losses at an alarming pace, and some are coming outside of the league’s upper echelon, which really hurts. Trips to Temple and Richmond complicate Dayton’s chances but at least present them with good opportunities. Beating St. Louis or Richmond would lock Xavier up, but for now they are still in excellent shape. Rhode Island probably needs their next three, which are winnable. The dark horse here is St. Louis, who has Xavier and Temple coming to town and three of four remaining at home, with a trip to Charlotte to wrap up the regular season. Winning out will put them into serious at-large consideration.
Locks: 
Near Locks: Xavier (19-7, 10-2 RPI 20)
Bubble: Rhode Island (20-6, 8-5 RPI 26); Dayton (18-8, 7-5 RPI 42); Charlotte (18-8, 8-4 RPI 55); Saint Louis (17-8, 9-3 RPI 82)
Treading Water: None
Big East
Analysis: Louisville and Marquette are a bit clear of the 6-8 clubs, but tough schedules to close out Big East play will ultimately decide their fate. Cincinnati lost a damaging game at home to Marquette and needs at least three of their last four to have a good shot. UConn’s closing stretch started with an excellent win at home against West Virginia. They have to get to 9-9 to really feel good about their chances, but it is certainly doable, something that did not look likely a week ago. Seton Hall is still alive because of a lack of bad losses, but they must pick up top-100 wins to really be in consideration – and Marquette is the only team on the schedule that fits that description. It looks like 10-8 and a Big East tourney run is their best shot. For Notre Dame and South Florida, it looks like it may be win out or bust.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Louisville (18-9, 9-5 RPI 30); Marquette (17-9, 8-6 RPI 59); Cincinnati (15-11, 6-8 RPI 56); Connecticut (17-11, 7-8 RPI 45); Seton Hall (15-10, 6-8 RPI 51)
Treading Water: Notre Dame (17-10, 6-8 RPI 80); South Florida (16-10, 6-8 RPI 56)
Big Ten
Analysis: Its crunch time for Illinois and Minnesota. The Illini have a great league record and wins over Vanderbilt, Michigan State and Wisconsin but own only a 6-8 record against the top-100 and two sub-100 losses. They need to at least win their remaining two home games to stay afloat. Minnesota is back from the dead, but only have four top-100 wins against 8 losses to go along with a bad hiccup at Indiana. Beating Purdue is probably their last chance to make a strong statement.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Illinois (17-10, 9-5 RPI 71); Minnesota (16-10, 7-7 RPI 77)
Treading Water: None
Big 12
Analysis: Oklahoma State got a huge win over Baylor, but don’t move up the pecking order due to their 4-6 record vs. the top 100, tough upcoming schedule and lack of a big-time OOC win. Missouri is probably two wins away from locking up a bid, and they have a home date with Colorado this week to get halfway there. Texas Tech must win out to have a chance, but it is still possible with two home games and roadies at league minnows Nebraska and Colorado.
Locks: 
Near Locks: Missouri (20-7, 8-4 RPI 39)
Bubble: Oklahoma State (19-7, 7-5 RPI 35)
Treading Water: Texas Tech (16-10, 4-8 RPI 43)
Conference USA
Analysis: UAB is still in fairly strong shape due to a good nonconference performance, but they have seen UTEP run by them in CUSA play. The last league game for both teams is in El Paso, and can be considered a bubble eliminator – although UTEP could use it more. The Miners did nothing of note out of conference. Memphis is hanging on by a thread and needs to complete a sweep of UAB to really have a chance.
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: UAB (21-5, 9-3 RPI 31); UTEP (20-5, 11-1 RPI 53); Memphis (20-7, 10-2 RPI 61)
Treading Water: Marshall (17-7, 8-4 RPI 57)
Missouri Valley
Analysis: A shorthanded UNI looked great in wire-to-wire Bracket Busters win over Old Dominion. Wichita State is on life support after falling to red-hot Utah State. They need to win out until the MVC to get back into serious consideration.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Wichita State (21-7, 11-5 RPI 50)
Treading Water: Illinois State (20-8, 10-6 RPI 83)
Mountain West
Analysis: UNLV and San Diego State remain right around the cut line. UNLV has three winnable MWC games remaining, and would be well served to take care of business there and let the bubble teams from other conferences make mistakes. The Aztecs could really use a win at BYU, since they are only 4-5 against the top-100 and have bad losses to Pacific and Wyoming. They did nothing of note out of conference.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: UNLV (19-7, 8-5 RPI 43); San Diego State (18-7, 9-4 RPI 38)
Treading Water: None
Pac 10
Analysis: Whaddaya say we just skip this whole mess? Crap, I guess we can’t. California lost to Oregon State to ensure a place on the bubble – that is now their best-case scenario. Washington must survive three straight on the road to maintain their place in consideration. Arizona State is surging, but they still have a trip to Cal remaining as well as a visit from USC. They need at least three of their last four to have a chance at an at-large.
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: California (17-8, 9-4 RPI 21); Arizona State (19-8, 9-5 RPI 58); Washington (18-9, 8-7 RPI 60)
Treading Water: None
SEC
Analysis: Florida’s win at Ole Miss drove a wedge between them and the rest of the SEC bubble teams. Should the Gators in home dates with Tennessee and Vanderbilt, they would reverse the damage from what looked like a fatal home loss to Xavier and snag an at-large. South Carolina has fizzled out, and it looks like the only other survivor is Mississippi State. The Bulldogs may need all four of their remaining SEC games to help them overcome four sub-100 losses. Ole Miss needs to start winning soon.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Florida (19-8, 8-4 RPI 52); Mississippi State (19-8, 7-5 RPI 65)
Treading Water: Mississippi (17-9, 5-7 RPI 53)
West Coast
Analysis: St. Mary’s has two winnable WCC games before the conference tournament, where an appearance in the final is essential. They are 5-5 against the top-100, and have a nice win at Utah State and vs. San Diego State. Other than that, they really needed a win over Gonzaga, but they failed in that regard. By the way - sweet move not participating in Bracket Busters, WCC. Its not like a good top-50 win would have helped St. Mary's get you a second bid to the NCAA Tournament this year and last or anything.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: St. Mary’s (21-5, 9-3 RPI 46)
Treading Water: None
Others
Analysis: After the CAA washout, Utah State has emerged as the mid-major with the best chance for an at-large if it is needed. William & Mary must win out in the regular season and until the CAA final to have a chance, and Old Dominion would be well advised to do the same. Despite their strong computer numbers, its hard to see Siena grabbing an at-large should they fail to win the MAAC tournament. Its looking likely that Cornell will grab the Ivy League’s automatic bid.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: William & Mary (18-8, 11-5 RPI 48-CAA); Cornell (21-4, 9-1 RPI 49-Ivy); Old Dominion (21-8, 13-3 RPI 41-CAA); Siena (22-6, 15-1 RPI 33-MAAC); Utah State (21-6, 11-2 RPI 34-WAC)
Treading Water: VCU (19-7, 10-6 RPI 62-CAA); Louisiana Tech (21-6, 8-4 RPI 64-WAC); Murray State (24-3, 16-0 RPI 79-OVC); Kent State (19-8, 10-3 RPI 54-MAC); Oakland (20-8, 16-1 RPI 66-Summit)
