ACC
Analysis: Florida State moves closer to a bid with a blowout win at UNC. A win against either Wake Forest or Clemson at home should do the trick. They end the season at Miami. Maryland is locked up after a great comeback win over Clemson – no ACC team has gone 10-6 and not gotten a bid, and there is no way it happens this year. It helps to have the name “Maryland” attached to your resume. They can lose out and they will get in. Virginia Tech looked bad at Boston College and fall back onto the bubble, albeit still on the good side. A gigantic home game against Maryland may decide their fate – they need two of the last three to avoid having a lot of work to do at the ACC Tournament. At 7-6 and with trips to Wake Forest and Florida State sandwiched around a home date with desperate Georgia Tech, its time for Clemson to circle the wagons.
Locks: 
Near Locks: Florida State (20-7, 8-5 RPI 34)
Bubble: Virginia Tech (21-6, 8-5 RPI 48); Georgia Tech (17-9, 6-7 RPI 33); Clemson (19-8, 7-6 RPI 36)
Treading Water: None
Atlantic 10
Analysis: Dayton’s loss leaves them in a very precarious position – they are now staring at 9-7 in the A-10. Normally that would send them to the NIT, but they have a couple good nonconference wins (vs. ODU and Georgia Tech) and a nice 25-point blowout of Xavier. Rhode Island must take advantage of its remaining easy schedule and hope other teams above them stumble. Charlotte’s 4-8 vs. the top-100 but can clean up the profile with wins at Rhode Island and at home against Richmond, which is easier said than done. Xavier is locked up, as it is hard to see them going worse than 13-3 in conference. St. Louis needs to run the table to have a good chance, since it would include wins over Dayton and Temple. The Fighting Majeruses can’t expect a sniff from the selection committee without that after dropping a home game against Xavier.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Rhode Island (20-6, 8-5 RPI 28); Dayton (18-9, 7-6 RPI 43); Charlotte (18-8, 8-4 RPI 55);
Treading Water: Saint Louis (17-9, 9-4 RPI 90)
Big East
Analysis: Madness reigns in the middle of the Big East. Everyone on the list could stand to win out, but tough schedules may prevent that. Again, lets see who finishes .500 or better and then sort this out. Notre Dame is back in the mix after beating Pitt, but have games at Georgetown, vs. UConn and at Marquette coming up. Marquette gets bubble shots at Seton Hall, and then home vs. Louisville and Notre Dame. Two of those three might be enough, since it would significantly boost their 6-7 top-100 record. For UConn, Cincinnati and Seton Hall it’s all about winning.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Louisville (18-10, 9-6 RPI 42); Marquette (18-9, 9-6 RPI 54); Cincinnati (16-11, 7-8 RPI 59); Connecticut (17-11, 7-8 RPI 40); Seton Hall (16-10, 7-8 RPI 52)
Treading Water: None
Big Ten
Analysis: A loss to Purdue puts Minnesota on the brink. Without a win at Illinois this weekend, it’s hard to see where they can improve their profile. The Illini need only to beat Minnesota and Wisconsin at home to feel good about their chances. They are only 6-8 vs. the top-100. Given the weakness of other teams, its hard to see them getting left out if they get to 12-6.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Illinois (18-10, 10-5 RPI 64)
Treading Water: Minnesota (16-11, 7-8 RPI 81); Northwestern (18-10, 7-9 RPI 92)
Big 12
Analysis: It is hard to overstate how badly Oklahoma State needs to beat Kansas or win at Texas A & M. They stand at 4-7 against the top-100, and even with three top-25 wins, 4-9 against that group will not look very good to the committee. Missouri moves to Lock Land because of their win and the failings of other Bubblers.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Oklahoma State (19-8, 7-6 RPI 31)
Treading Water: None
Conference USA
Analysis: Memphis lost badly at Houston and is pretty much sunk. The Tigers join Marshall on the outskirts of the bubble, saved only by the fact that they can knock off UTEP (Marshall) and UAB (Memphis) and have a bunch of teams collapse them elsewhere on the bubble.
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: UAB (22-5, 10-3 RPI 32); UTEP (21-5, 12-1 RPI 46)
Treading Water: Marshall (18-7, 9-4 RPI 61); Memphis (20-8, 10-3 RPI 69)
Missouri Valley
Analysis: UNI is still ok, even after losing to a terrible Evansville team. Wichita State is nearly cooked after another sub-100 loss at Bradley, although they have an outside shot at getting back on the bubble. They are 7-4 against the top-100 but now have four sub-100 losses with just an OK win over Texas Tech out of conference.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Wichita State (21-8, 11-6 RPI 53)
Treading Water: Illinois State (21-8, 11-6 RPI 79)
Mountain West
Analysis: UNLV got the first leg of their cakewalk end of the MWC season by crushing TCU. San Diego State fell at BYU and now has to be sweating – where can they improve their profile now? They need a win over BYU or New Mexico, but it must come in the MWC tournament now. 4-6 vs. the top-100, two sub-100 losses and no good out of conference wins do not look very good at this moment.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: UNLV (20-7, 9-5 RPI 44); San Diego State (18-8, 9-5 RPI 37)
Treading Water: None
Pac 10
Analysis: Nothing to see here, folks - let's move on.
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: California (19-9, 11-5 RPI 24); Arizona State (20-8, 10-5 RPI 56); Washington (18-9, 8-7 RPI 60)
Treading Water: None
SEC
Analysis: I’m not as high on Mississippi State as most analysts. They have four sub-100 losses, which is a very high number compared to their bubble brethren. They did sweep Ole Miss, but lost to Florida. A good win over ODU out of conference is offset by a home loss to Rider. In my opinion, they must survive road trips to South Carolina and Auburn, as well as a home game with Tennessee to really have a chance at an at-large. I think Florida is in with two wins in their last three, as only a bad home loss to South Alabama is an eyesore on their resume.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Florida (20-8, 9-4 RPI 45); Mississippi State (20-8, 8-5 RPI 58); Mississippi (18-9, 6-7 RPI 60)
Treading Water: None
West Coast
Analysis: St. Mary’s just needs to take care of business until the WCC final – a lot can happen elsewhere on the bubble to make them look better. Portland is cooked after losing at Loyola Marymount.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: St. Mary’s (22-5, 10-3 RPI 47)
Treading Water: None
Others
Analysis: Sorry, Tribe fans. Losing at home to Towson is a fatal blow to the College’s chances at an at-large. Their excellent nonconference work is officially undone. Northeastern is done after a home loss to Hofstra. If Cornell can polish off Princeton and Penn this weekend at home, they would wrap up the Ivy’s auto bid and make room on the bubble – given this likelihood, Siena remains in consideration even though they need a ton of help. Old Dominion has to beat VCU to clinch the CAA title and get another crucial top-100 win. They are 5-7 in that department right now. Even if they keep winning, they will still be right on the cutline come Selection Sunday. Utah State is 8-4 vs. the top-100 but have two sub-100 losses. The nonconference win over BYU is enough to keep them in serious consideration, but they should focus on winning out until the WAC final to feel secure. Right now, they are in strong shape.
Goodbye to Murray State and Louisiana Tech.
Locks: 
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Cornell (21-4, 9-1 RPI 49-Ivy); Old Dominion (22-8, 14-3 RPI 41-CAA); Siena (22-6, 15-1 RPI 38-MAAC); Utah State (22-6, 12-2 RPI 35-WAC)
Treading Water: William & Mary (18-9, 11-6 RPI 57-CAA); VCU (20-7, 11-6 RPI 63-CAA); Kent State (20-8, 11-3 RPI 50-MAC); Oakland (20-8, 16-1 RPI 68-Summit)
