ACC

Analysis: Clemson is locked up after beating Georgia Tech convincingly.

Locks:     

Near Locks:
Wake Forest (18-8, 8-6 RPI 28): Wake is also part of the one win and in club, despite their recent slide.  Wins over Georgia Tech, Maryland, Richmond and Xavier could put them in even if they can’t win either at Florida State or at home vs. Clemson.

Bubble:
Florida State (20-8, 8-6 RPI 42):  A tough home loss to Clemson prevented the Seminoles from locking up a bid, but a home win over Wake Forest should do the trick.  The OOC win over Marquette is nices, as is a sweep of Georgia Tech.  They close at Miami, which is manageable.
Virginia Tech (21-7, 8-6 RPI 52): An epic double overtime loss at home against Maryland has put the Hokies on the brink.  Now they must take care of NC State at home before going on the road to face fellow bubbler Georgia Tech.  A low RPI is based on a very weak nonconference slate, although they did beat Seton Hall without Malcolm Delaney.  Three 9-7 ACC teams have missed the tournament – UVA in 2000, Florida State in 2006 and Virginia Tech in 2008, with only Tech missing out after an ACC tournament win.  Their top-100 records are fluid based on the lower ACC squads moving above and below the 100 threshold, and it now stands at 5-5, and their top-50 record is 2-4.  It remains to be seen if an opening round ACC game helps or hurts their chances.  Sweeping this week sends them dancing, but a split ensures a stressful selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech (18-10, 7-8 RPI 33):  It is officially time to start worrying if you are the Jackets.  They are likely to finish no higher than 7th in the ACC, and certainly don't want to draw surging North Carolina in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke help the Jackets, but a 1-7 ACC road record hurts a bit.  Wins at Charlotte and vs. Siena are the highlights of an ok nonconference performance.  Getting to 8-8 in conference should be enough, although their inconsistency might prevent that.  Everyone has Virginia Tech penciled in as a win, but the Hokies will also be fighting for their NCAA tournament lives.  They are 4-7 vs. top-50 foes, clearly passing the SOS test.

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Locks:   

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Rhode Island (20-7, 8-6 RPI 35): A dreadful loss at St. Bonaventure has the Rams in trouble.  Their once stellar computer profile is fading badly.  They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play.  They are 6-6 vs. the top-100 and 2-4 vs. top-50 foes.  They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts.  They have to win their next two to get back on track.
Dayton (19-9, 8-6 RPI 41): The Flyers can really help themselves with a win at Richmond, but a 9-7 A-10 mark is a real possibility.  Should that happen, they would have to spring a couple upsets on their way to the A-10 title to be back on the good side of the bubble.  They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 5-8 vs. top-100 foes.
Charlotte (19-9, 9-5 RPI 62): A showdown at Rhode Island could decide their fate.  A resume with wins at Louisville, at Richmond and vs. Temple is somewhat offset by a 4-8 top-100 mark.  The loss to George Washington continued a slide that has seen them lose four of five.  If they can win at Rhode Island, they would also probably need to beat Richmond at home to really have a good chance at an at-large.

Treading Water: Saint Louis (18-9, 10-4 RPI 86)

Big East

Locks:       

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Louisville (19-11, 10-7 RPI 32): The Cardinals got drubbed at Marquette after a competitive first half, but still remain on the good side of the bubble for now.  They are 7-10 against the top-100 but that is against a SOS of 7, which will only go up with a game vs. Syracuse remaining.  The win at Syracuse is a nice feather in their cap and completing a sweep would surely send them dancing should they fall at Marquette.  It would take three straight losses to really make them worry about their chances, but they are staring at 10-8 in the Big East right now. 
Connecticut (17-12, 7-9 RPI 45): The Huskies have to hit the road for their final two, and probably need both to have a chance.  Getting swept by Louisville and Cincinnati have to hurt.  They have a SOS of 2 and three top-25 wins.  They are 3-6 overall against the top-50 but are an impressive 9-9 against the top-100.  Losses at Michigan and Providence are not helpful to the cause.
Notre Dame (19-10, 8-8 RPI 68):  Wins vs. Pitt and at Georgetown have rescued the Irish from the depths of the bubble.  Doing it without All-American forward Luke Harongody is remarkable.  A huge matchup with UConn could strengthen their case, and they end the season at Marquette.  Win both and they should be dancing, split and they will need to rely on top-25 wins over West Virginia, Georgetown and Pitt.  A bad home loss to Loyola Marymount is an eyesore.  They are 8-8 vs. the top-100.

Treading Water: Seton Hall (16-11, 7-9 RPI 64); South Florida (18-11, 8-9 RPI 66)    

Big Ten

Analysis: Minnesota is done after a horrendous 28-point loss at Michigan.  Maybe a good run at the Big Ten Tournament will get themm back in the mix, but for now they just dont stack up favorably.  Illinois fell at Ohio State and really have to be worried now.

Locks:       

Bubble:
Illinois (18-12, 10-7 RPI 73): The Illini are almost guaranteed to spend selection sunday in a virtual sauna after losing at Ohio State, which is their 12th loss of the season.  While 10-7 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are an ok 4-7 vs. the top-50 and 6-10 against the top-100.  Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not.  Can the good wins outweigh the bad losses?  We will see.  They better win either at home vs. Wisconsin or else they will make the committee justify an at-large to a team with an 80+ RPI and 13 losses.

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks:       

Near Locks:
Oklahoma State (20-8, 8-6 RPI 26): Oklahoma State got the biggest bubble win over the year by beating Kansas – only one more win will wrap up a bid, but four top-25 wins is probably enough if they hit the skids.  A home date with Nebraska should do the trick and send the Pokes dancing.

Bubble: None

Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Locks: None

Near Locks:
UTEP (23-5, 14-1 RPI 50): A big win at Marshall wrapped up the CUSA title and puts UTEP in good shape heading into a home date with fellow bubbler UAB.  If they win and complete a season sweep, they will be dancing since it will mean only one loss in their last 15+ games.  While there is nothing that helpful in the nonconference and their RPI doesnt lend itself to "lock" status, a win over the Blazers should be enough unless they completely fall on their faces at the CUSA tournament.  

Bubble:
UAB (23-5, 11-3 RPI 36): A big week for the Blazers awaits, with a home game against Memphis and a roadie at UTEP on tap.  Winning both would be greatly beneficial, and a split would mean an uncomfortable trip towards the cutline.  They are 6-4 vs. the top-100, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play.

Treading Water:  Memphis (21-8, 11-3 RPI 64)    

Missouri Valley

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Wichita State (22-8, 12-6 RPI 49): The Shockers are a fringe bubble team, sporting a 7-4 top-100 record offset by four sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville squad.  Its looking like they need the automatic bid at Arch Madness.

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks:  

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UNLV (21-7, 10-5 RPI 43): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in decent shape for an at-large.  They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU.  A sweep by Utah hurts.  A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win might be enough.
San Diego State (18-8, 9-5 RPI 39): The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality.  They need two upsets at the MWC tournament to have a chance at an at-large.  One more bad loss between now and then, and they are done.  They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Locks: None

Near Locks:
California (20-9, 12-5 RPI 21); The Bears won the Pac-10 regular season title and can breathe a little easier.  Winning at Stanford would be nice, but despite 3 sub-100 losses and a mediocre 5-6 tp-100 record, winning a major conference and scheduling ambitiously out of conference should be enough to go dancing.

Bubble:
Arizona State (20-9, 10-6 RPI 55):  The Sun Devils are in major trouble, sitting at 3-6 vs. the top-100.  Their best win is vs. San Diego State.  Beating USC and UCLA at home is a must, as is a trip to the Pac-10 final if they want to have a chance at an at-large.
Washington (19-9, 9-7 RPI 56):  Two road wins at the Oregon schools would keep the Huskies hanging around, but they also need a major run at the Pac-10 tourney to really have a shot.  They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 5-4 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses.

Treading Water: None

SEC

Locks:    

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Florida (20-10, 9-6 RPI 46):  The Gators really hurt their cause with the losses at Georgia and at home vs. Vanderbilt.  They are 3-7 vs. the top-50 and 7-9 against the top-100.  A bid could be wrapped up with a win at Kentucky, but the Wildcats still have the SEC East to win and should be ready to play.  Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not.  If they fall at Kentucky and in the first round of the SEC tournament, the Gators could miss the dance for the third straight season. 
Mississippi State (21-8, 9-5 RPI 54): A crucial win at South Carolina makes it three straight for the Bulldogs, but two must-win games remain – at Auburn and at home vs. Tennessee.  Wins in both would put them solidly on the good side of the bubble with an 11-5 SEC record.  Four sub-100 losses would harm them if they leave it up to chance, but their win over ODU is pretty nice.
Mississippi (19-9, 7-7 RPI 53):  The Rebels have two winnable games left and need both.  They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins.  Getting swept by Mississippi State means the Rebels may need to win two or three SEC tournament games to have a chance.

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks:

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
St. Mary’s (23-5, 11-3 RPI 44):  Nonconference wins at Utah State and vs. San Diego State are nice, but they did not knock of Gonzaga in two tries.  Even a trip to the WCC final will not mean rising above the cutline (last four in or out) for the Gaels.  They are 5-4 vs. the top-100 and are 1-4 against the top-50.

Treading Water: None

Others

Analysis: We have to take Oakland out of the mix - now that few bubble teams have won important games, it looks like they can't get an at-large.  Here's to hoping that they win the Summit tourney and go dancing, they deserve it.  Kent State can jump onto the board with a win at Akron.

Locks:

Near Locks:
Cornell (23-4, 11-1 RPI 47-Ivy):  The Big Red is one win away from locking up the Ivy and freeing up space for a bubble team to make the NCAA’s

Bubble: 
Old Dominion (23-8, 15-3 RPI 38-CAA):  If you go down the checklist of what an at-large should be, the Monarchs seem to have a complete profile.  They scheduled the 7^th toughest OOC slate in the country, have a marquee win (at Georgetown) avoided bad losses (the worst is at George Mason), and have piled up a 7-7 top-100 record.  Maybe a 1-4 top-50 record will hurt them, but they are 6-3 vs. 50-100.   Its looking like a trip to the CAA finals will be enough to send them dancing.  Short of that, it would cause some nervous moments in Norfolk.
Siena (24-6, 17-1 RPI 40-MAAC): Although they have great computer numbers, the Saints would be very lucky to get an at-large.  Missing on all four chances at top-50 opponents is especially harmful despite their MAAC dominance.  With their best win being vs. Northeastern, they better win the MAAC tournament to go dancing.
Utah State (22-6, 12-2 RPI 34-WAC):  A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 8-4 record vs. the top-100.  Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt, as does a weak nonconference schedule.  They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance.

Treading Water: William & Mary (19-9, 12-6 RPI 60-CAA); Kent State (21-8, 12-3 RPI 48-MAC)