During the infancy of Comedy Central, an early-90's Sinbad standup special from Atlanta used to run about four times a week.  While his jogging suit may be a bit dated - many of his words still ring true.  In describing his college experience he said (I'm paraphrasing here):  "I went to college with five girls.  Five ugly girls.  But by Christmas break, they weren't looking too bad.  By spring break - they were fine!"  The longer teams hang around in the at-large conversation, the better they seem to look to the experts.  That pretty much sums up what we have happening with the Pac-10, where Washington and Arizona State are popping up on mock brackets and Last Four In lists.  Arizona State beat (at home, mind you) USC and UCLA this week, which in some crazy parallel universe improved their profile over teams who lost to actual good teams (Florida and UAB).  This happens every year in predicting the NCAA tournament, and it never ceases to amaze me.  Regardless of what people say, the teams in the bubble are NOT seperated by one game.  The bubble is not as fluid as many claim it is, and wins and losses cause a lot less movement than you would think.  In this "what have you done for me today?" world, its tempting to change the at-larges as the wind blows, but its not realistic.  Take a step back, look at the resumes again and then give me a good reason why Arizona State is over UAB or Florida right now.  I won't hold my breath, Lunardi.

The Field
(56 Bids)

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Atlantic 10: Temple, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette
Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Conference USA: UTEP
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
Mountain West: New Mexico, UNLV
Pac-10: Auto*
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West Coast: Gonzaga
Ivy: Cornell*
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State*
OVC: Murray State*
Big South: Winthrop*
WAC: Auto*
CAA: Auto*
Horizon: Butler
MAAC: Auto*
MAC: Auto*
SoCon: Auto*
Big Sky: Auto*
Big West: Auto*
Sun Belt: Auto*
Summit: Auto*
America East: Auto*
Southland: Auto*
Patriot: Auto*
NEC: Auto*
MEAC: Auto*
SWAC: Auto*

Near Locks (4): Notre Dame, UNLV, California, Old Dominion

Remaining Bids Available (5)

Bubble (19): Georgia Tech, Dayton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, South Florida, Illinois, UAB, Memphis, Wichita State, San Diego State, Arizona State, Washington, Florida, Mississippi State, Mississippi, St. Mary's, Siena, William & Mary, Kent State



ACC  

Locks:  Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Georgia Tech (18-11, 7-9 RPI 44):  It is officially time to start worrying if you are the Jackets - again.  The home loss to Virginia Tech is devastating, and could put GT on the wrong side of the bubble.  Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke help the Jackets, but a 1-7 ACC road record hurts badly.  Wins at Charlotte and vs. Siena are the highlights of an ok nonconference performance.  They are 4-8 vs. top-50 foes, and are 8-9 vs. the top-100.  They draw talented but troubled North Carolina in the first round of the ACC tournament, and a loss there would be a deathblow.  A win means a potential bid-clinching shot at Maryland.

Treading Water: None


Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Rhode Island (21-8, 9-7 RPI 39): The Rams suffered a damaging loss at UMass, their second sub-100 loss in a week.  Their at-large hopes depend on a very good A-10 tournament showing. They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play.  They are 8-6 vs. the top-100, but that includes a few so-so nonconference wins, and they are 2-3 vs. top-50 foes.  They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts. 
Dayton (19-11, 8-8 RPI 51): The Flyers fell at home to St. Louis and now have very slim chances at an at-large.  The A-10 is a great league, but 8-8 won't really impress the committee.  They probably have to spring a couple upsets on their way to the A-10 title game to be back on the good side of the bubble.  They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 4-9 vs. top-100 foes.  They need a minimum of two upsets at the A-10 tournament to have a chance now.

Treading Water: None

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette

Near Locks:
Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8 RPI 57):  Wins vs. Pitt, UConn and at Georgetown and Marquette have rescued the Irish from the depths of the bubble.  Doing it without All-American forward Luke Harongody is remarkable.   A bad home loss to Loyola Marymount is an eyesore.  They are 10-7 vs. the top-100, and have three sub-100 losses.  10 top-100 wins seperates them from the rest of the field for now, and the winning streak to end the regular season should push the Irish to an at-large no matter what happens at the Big East tournament.  They have enough quality wins as of right now to be solidly in the field. 

Bubble:
Seton Hall (18-11, 9-9 RPI 54):  The Pirates are on the fringe of the at-large discussion only if they can finish 9-9 in the Big East.  They had a brutal schedule, but can't show much more than a nice home wins over Lousiville and Pittsburgh to the selection committee.   An incredible 8 of their losses have come at the hands of the top-50, and they are 6-11 against the top-100.  How will the committee treat a teams whose worst loss came to RPI 64 South Florida?  A couple wins at the Big East tournament will help immensly,and that paired with a killer SOS could get the Pirates into the tournament.
South Florida (19-11, 9-9 RPI 67):  THe Bulls beat UConn to jump back on the bubble.  They still have some work to do at the Big East tournament, where they need at least two wins, with one preferably being an upset.  They have a good win at Georgetown and a home win over Pitt, offset somewhat by a bad home loss to Central Michigan (RPI 191).  They also beat Seton Hall in their only matcup of the season.  Who knows-two more wins and some help elsewhere could put the Bulls right on the verge of an at-large.

Treading Water: none

Big Ten

Locks:  Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State 

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Illinois (18-13, 10-8 RPI 73): The Illini are almost guaranteed to spend selection sunday in a virtual sauna after losing at home to Wisconsin, which is their 13th loss of the season.  While 10-8 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are an ok 4-8 vs. the top-50 and are 6-11 against the top-100.  Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not.  Can the good wins outweigh the bad losses?  We will see.  The Illini better beat Wisconsin or the committee will have to justify an at-large to a team with an 75+ RPI and 14 losses.

Treading Water: None

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State

Near Locks: None

Bubble: None

 Treading Water: None

Conference USA

Locks: UTEP

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
UAB (23-7, 11-5 RPI 40):   UAB suffered a crushing home loss at UTEP and now are in danger of missing the dance.  They are now a clear third in the CUSA pecking order - which is not a good thing.  They are 5-6 vs. the top-100, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play - but those are probably their last solid wins.  They have to get to the CUSA final to expect an at-large, and that means beating Memphis in the process.
Memphis (22-8, 13-3 RPI 48):  The Tigers crushed Tulsa to complete the regular season, and are strong contenders for an at-large.  They are 7-5 vs. the top-100, are 2-4 vs. the top-50 but have three sub-100 losses.  Despite a challenging schedule, they lack any significant nonconference wins other than IUPUI and Oakland - neither of which will catch the committee's attention.  They need at least a trip to the CUSA title game to feel good about their chances, especially if that means grabbing a third win over UAB.  WHile the resume isnt stellar, they are winning while other bubble teams are tripping over their own feet. 

Treading Water: None  

Missouri Valley

Locks: Northern Iowa (Auto-Bid)

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Wichita State (24-9, 14-7 RPI 43): The Shockers are a true bubble team, sporting a 10-6 top-100 record offset by three sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville squad.  They have one top-50 win, over Northern Iowa.  Their best nonconference win was over Texas Tech.  Their chances depend on how the committee perceives the MVC - do the 50-100 RPI wins they racked up score the same points for Wichita as they do for BCS schools?  More than anything, they will be hurt by the fact that their resume is complete and the rest of the bubble still has plenty of games to play.  It will take some bubble carnage for them to slip in the tournament, but anything is possible.

Treading Water: None

Mountain West

Locks: New Mexico, BYU

Near Locks:
UNLV (22-7, 11-5 RPI 43): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in good shape for an at-large.  They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU.  A sweep by Utah hurts.  A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win will be more than enough.  Given the quality of the bubble, UNLV is way ahead of the curve right now.

Bubble:
San Diego State (20-8, 11-5 RPI 33): Continue to color me skeptical about San Diego State's chances.  The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality.  They are 2-5 vs. the top-50 and 3-7 overall against the top-100.  Despite the strong computer numbers, the resume really doesn't hold up against most other teams in consideration.  More than anything, other teams collapsing down the stretch can help them.  They need at least one upset at the MWC tournament to feel good about an at-large.  One more bad loss between now and then, and they are done.  They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.

Treading Water: None

Pac 10

Locks: None

Near Locks:
California (21-9, 13-5 RPI 22); The Bears won the Pac-10 regular season title and can breathe a little easier.  Despite 3 sub-100 losses and a mediocre 5-6 top-100 record, winning a major conference and scheduling ambitiously out of conference should be enough to go dancing.

Bubble:
Arizona State (21-9, 12-6 RPI 54):  The Sun Devils are still inot out of the water even with a 12-6 Pac-10 record, as they are sitting at 3-7 vs. the top-100.  Their best win is vs. San Diego State.  A trip to the Pac-10 final might be enough to garner good buzz for an at-large.  They could sneak up the pecking order if some teams around them stumble, but for right now their biggest positive is a good record in a pretty bad BCS league.  They split with fellow Pac-10 bubbler Washington, and may be behind them resume-wise.
Washington (21-9, 11-7 RPI 49):  The Huskies remain in the mix for an at-large but still have plenty of work to do.  They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 6-5 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses.   Should they meet Arizona State in the semis of the Pac-10 tournament, the game would serve as an eliminator, but it wouldn't necessarily guarantee the winner an at-large.

Treading Water: None

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Tennesssee, Vanderbilt 

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
Florida (20-11, 9-7 RPI 53):  The Gators really are reeling after dropping their last three regular season games.  They are 3-8 vs. the top-50 and 8-10 against the top-100.  They need to avoid losing their first SEC tournament game, and could really use at least a couple wins to feel safe.  Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not. 
Mississippi State (21-10, 9-7 RPI 69): After getting smoked at home by Tennessee, the Bulldogs need a run to the SEC final to have any chance at an at-large.  Five sub-100 losses put them decidedly on the wrong side of the bubble.  Their OOC win over ODU is pretty nice, but other than a sweep of Ole Miss there isnt much else on the resume.
Mississippi (21-9, 9-7 RPI 56):  The Rebels got by Arkansas to stay in contention.  They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins.  Getting swept by Mississippi State means the Rebels may need to win two or three SEC tournament games to have a chance - they still lack a high-quality conference win.  The Kansas State win lost a little luster over the weekend.

Treading Water: None

West Coast

Locks: Gonzaga

Near Locks: None

Bubble:
St. Mary’s (24-5, 13-3 RPI 45):  A third date with Gonzaga looms tonight, and this one is to clinch the WCC’s automatic bid.  The Gaels have to feel pretty good about their chances if they cant get the win tonight, as the rest of the bubble have worse profiles.  The only worry would be bid-stealers or a number of teams going on deep conference tournament runs.  Nonconference wins at Utah State and vs. San Diego State are nice.  They are 6-4 vs. the top-100 and are 1-4 against the top-50.

Treading Water: None

Others

Locks: Butler

Near Locks:
Old Dominion (25-8, 17-3 RPI 37-CAA):  Beqating VCU in a quasi-road game in the CAA semifinals is probably enough to send ODU to the dance.  Now they draw William & Mary in the finals, and even a loss wouldn't hurt them too badly.  The safest thing to do is to lock up the automatic bid, but there really isnt a scenario in which they would be denied an at-large if they need it, considering the weakness of their competitors.  If you go down the checklist of what an at-large should be, the Monarchs seem to have a complete profile.  They scheduled the 7^th toughest OOC slate in the country, have a marquee win (at Georgetown) avoided bad losses (the worst is at George Mason), and have piled up a 7-7 top-100 record.  Maybe a 1-4 top-50 record will hurt them, but they are 6-3 vs. 50-100.  

Bubble: 
Siena (26-6, 19-1 RPI 38-MAAC): Although they have great computer numbers, the Saints would be very lucky to get an at-large.  Missing on all four chances at top-50 opponents is especially harmful despite their MAAC dominance.  With their best win being vs. Northeastern, they better win the MAAC tournament to go dancing.  They get their chance tonight.
Utah State (24-6, 14-2 RPI 31-WAC):  A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 9-4 record vs. the top-100.  Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt.  They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance.  Right now, its tough to argue that they don't deserve an at-large if they really need it.  Ask yourself this - if not Utah State, who would you give a bid to?
William & Mary (21-9, 14-6 RPI 58-CAA):  The Tribe survived two tense tournament games to advance to the CAA finals.  They likely need to win to have any chance at a bid.  They are 5-6 vs. the top-100, and have great wins over Richmond, at Wake Forest and at Maryland.  They are a lot closer to an at-large than people think, but those three sub-200 losses are absolutely killer.  If they had won any of those three games, they would be making their dance plans right now.  Their best chance at a bid comes tonight.
Kent State (22-8, 13-3 RPI 42-MAC):  Its unfortunate that Kent State's run up at-large boards has been coupled with their best win (over UAB) losing its luster over the last two weeks.  Three sub-100 losses overshadow a 6-5 top-100 record.