10:00 PM:
Bubblegeddon claims another victim - Dayton is finished after blowing a big second half lead against Xavier. It was a microcosm of their season - a great start, tons of promise but eventually a thorough, frustrating collapse. They are officially out of chances. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech punched its ticket to the dance by beating red-hot Maryland in the ACC quarterfinals. They have pretty much made up for their questionable performance in the second half of the ACC season, and given their competition its hard to see them getting left out.
I think we are pretty much running out of bubble teams - only Minnesota, San Diego State, Illinois, Rhode Island and Mississippi State are still playing ball. The last three bids are up for grabs, and any of those three can claim them with a win or two. With most of the bubble finished, its time to keep an eye out for bid stealers - notably in the Pac-10, the WAC and possibly the crazy ACC (with Miami and NC State still alive). Shhh- don't look now, but William & Mary is starting to look like a real player for one of the last at-larges in the field.
5:00 PM:
Rhode Island ran past St. Louis to stay in the mix. Similarly, Illinois got a gigantic win over Wisconsin and now get a chance to virtually assure themselves a bid if they can face and beat Purdue in the Big Ten semifinals. Virginia Tech fell to suddenly good Miami, but still are in good shape given the quality of the teams below them. If they dont make the tournament I will s_it a brick. Literally.
10:00 AM:
Bubble Watch moves to realtime to keep up with conference tournament action. Bubblegeddon 2010 claimed UAB, Memphis, Arizona State and Kent State with all losing to sub-100 teams and dealing a crucial blow to their at-large hopes. Kent State is off the board for good after losing in the MAC quarterfinals to 9-seed Ohio U. For Memphis and Arizona State, they can only hope other teams stumble as bad as they did. UAB is pretty much cooked.
The Field
(61 Bids)
ACC: Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Atlantic 10: Temple, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Conference USA: UTEP
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
Mountain West: New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
Pac-10: Auto*, California
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West Coast: St. Mary's*, Gonzaga
Ivy: Cornell*
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State*
OVC: Murray State*
Big South: Winthrop*
WAC: Utah State
CAA: Old Dominion*
Horizon: Butler*
MAAC: Siena*
MAC: Auto*
SoCon: Wofford*
Big Sky: Montana*
Big West: Auto*
Sun Belt: North Texas*
Summit: Oakland*
America East: Auto*
Southland: Auto*
Patriot: Lehigh*
NEC: Robert Morris*
MEAC: Auto*
SWAC: Auto*
* Denotes Automatic Bid Winner
Near Locks: San Diego State
Remaining Bids Available (3)
Bubble (10): Rhode Island, Illinois, Memphis, Washington, Florida, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Minnesota, Seton Hall, William & Mary
Barely Bubble (4): UAB, Arizona State, Dayton, Wichita State
ACC
Locks: Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Near Locks: None
Bubble: None
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier
Near Locks: None
Bubble:
Rhode Island (23-8, 11-7 RPI 41): The Rams moved on to the A-10 semifinals to take on Temple. A win there, and they can pretty much book their dance ticket. They are in ok shape right now. They have a nice win over Oklahoma State, but other than a win at Dayton, have not done anything spectacular in A-10 play. They are 7-6 vs. the top-100and they are 2-3 vs. top-50 foes. They are 0-5 against the A-10’s top three teams, which really hurts. Losses to St. Bonaventure and UMass down the stretch were nearly fatal. The win at Dayton could come in handy if the two teams are compared.
Dayton (20-11, 9-8 RPI 51): The Flyers are pretty much cooked after blowing a big lead against Xavier, a game that would have really put them back in the mix. They have nice wins over Xavier, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech, but are just 5-10 vs. top-100 foes. They can start planning for the NIT after a disappointing season.
Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Near Locks: None
Bubble:
Seton Hall (19-12, 10-10 RPI 55): The Pirates were handled by Notre Dame and now must play the waiting game. There is still a sliver of hope for an at-large, but the Notre Dame game was probably their last chance to impress the committee. They had a brutal schedule, but can't show much more than a nice home wins over Lousiville and Pittsburgh to the selection committee. An incredible 8 of their losses have come at the hands of the top-50, and they are 6-12 against the top-100. How will the committee treat a teams whose worst loss came to South Florida?
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State
Near Locks: None
Bubble:
Illinois (19-13, 11-8 RPI 78): The Illini won an essential game against Wisconsin to rescue their at-large hopes. Now they have a date with the Purdue/Northwestern winner and While 11-8 in the Big Ten is great, getting an at-large with their current RPI would be downright historic. They are a pretty good 5-8 vs. the top-50 and are 7-11 against the top-100. Wins over Vanderbilt, at Clemson, vs. Michigan State and two over Wisconsin help, but losses to Bradley and Utah do not. Can the good wins outweigh the bad losses? We will see.
Minnesota (19-12, 10-9 RPI 73): The Gophers took care of Penn State and move on to play Michigan State in the quarterfinals. They probably need at least a trip to the Big Ten finals to have a chance, as they are just 4-7 vs. the top-100 and have five sub-100 losses, including getting swept by Michigan (including a recent 28-point shellacking) and losing at Indiana. Wins over Butler, Ohio State and Wisconsin are nice, but they still need to do some major damage to get the committee's attention.
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Near Locks: None
Bubble: None
Conference USA
Locks: UTEP
Near Locks: None
Bubble:
UAB (23-8, 11-6 RPI 44): UAB got smoked by Southern Miss in the CUSA quarterfinals and now have only very slim at-large hopes. They are now a clear third in the CUSA pecking order - which is not a good thing. They are 5-6 vs. the top-100, and beat Butler and Cincinnati in nonconference play - but those are probably their last solid wins. They were swept by UTEP and Memphis. Stumbling down the stretch in a not-that-good league isnt going to get the committees attention.
Memphis (22-9, 13-4 RPI 55): The Tigers lost a heatbreaker to Houston the CUSA quarterfinals to bring their at-large momentum to a screeching halt. They are 7-5 vs. the top-100, are 2-4 vs. the top-50 but have four sub-100 losses. Despite a challenging schedule, they lack any significant nonconference wins other than IUPUI and Oakland - neither of which will catch the committee's attention. While the resume isnt stellar, they can benefit from some more bubble carnage. Their problem? They have no more games to play.
Missouri Valley
Locks: Northern Iowa (Auto-Bid)
Near Locks: None
Bubble:
Wichita State (24-9, 14-7 RPI 42): The Shockers are a true bubble team, sporting a 10-6 top-100 record offset by three sub-100 losses, including one to a dreadful Evansville squad. They have one top-50 win, over Northern Iowa. Their best nonconference win was over Texas Tech. Their chances depend on how the committee perceives the MVC - do the 50-100 RPI wins they racked up score the same points for Wichita as they do for BCS schools? More than anything, they will be hurt by the fact that their resume is complete and the rest of the bubble still has plenty of games to play. It will take some bubble carnage for them to slip in the tournament, but anything is possible.
Mountain West
Locks: New Mexico, BYU
Near Locks:
UNLV (23-7, 12-5 RPI 49): The Rebels continue to beat up the nether regions of the MWC, and stand in good shape for an at-large. They are 7-4 vs. the top-100 and have wins over Louisville, New Mexico (at the Pit) and BYU. A sweep by Utah hurts. A trip to the MWC final that includes another quality win will be more than enough. Given the quality of the bubble, UNLV is way ahead of the curve right now.
Bubble:
San Diego State (21-8, 12-5 RPI 31): San Diego State survived Colorado State to remain in the mix. Continue to color me skeptical about San Diego State's chances. The Aztecs have just three top-100 wins to their credit, and only New Mexico and UNLV are tournament-quality. They are 2-5 vs. the top-50 and 3-7 overall against the top-100. Despite the strong computer numbers, the resume really doesn't hold up against most other teams in consideration. More than anything, other teams collapsing down the stretch can help them. They need at least one upset at the MWC tournament to feel good about an at-large. They also have losses to Wyoming and Pacific.
Pac 10
Locks: California
Near Locks: None
Bubble:
Arizona State (21-10, 12-7 RPI 53): The Sun Devils did well to earn a 12-6 Pac-10 record, but pooped it all away by losing to a bad Stanfrod team in the Pac-10 tournament. Their at-large hopes might be done because they are just 3-7 vs. the top-100. Their best win is vs. San Diego State. They split with fellow Pac-10 bubbler Washington, and may be behind them resume-wise.
Washington (21-9, 11-7 RPI 49): The Huskies remain in the mix for an at-large and ASU's loss makes their road a little easier. They have a nice win over Texas A&M, but a 6-5 top-100 record is offset by four sub-100 losses. A trip to the Pac-10 final likley would garner them an at-large bid. Sinbad Theory, anyone?
SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Tennesssee, Vanderbilt
Near Locks: None
Bubble:
Florida (21-12, 10-8 RPI 52): The Gators can start to sweat now that they are officially out of games to play before Selection Sunday. They are probably in OK shape, but bid stealers in other conferences could change everything. If they get a couple more wins, they would look really good for an at-large. They are 3-8 vs. the top-50 and 9-10 against the top-100. 8 of their losses came to teams in the top-25 RPI. They won their only regular season games against Mississippi and Mississippi State before the Bulldogs beat them in the SEC quarterfinals. Wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State help, but a home loss to South Alabama does not.
Mississippi State (22-10, 10-7 RPI 67): The Bulldogs won a bubble showdown over Florida and live to fight another bubble day. They still need at least one more win to really have a shot at an at-large and they face either Georgia or Vanderbilt in the semifinals. Four sub-100 losses may cost them dearly and are to blame for the urgent need for wins at the SEC tourney. Their OOC win over ODU is pretty nice, but other than a sweep of Ole Miss there isnt much else on the resume. Mississippi State is just 1-4 against the top 50, and 7-7 vs. the top-100.
Mississippi (21-10, 9-8 RPI 57): The Rebels lost to Tennessee, missing a golden opportunity to snag an at-large. The Rebels finished 6-8 vs. the top-100, and their worst loss came at home to Arkansas. They have wins over Kansas State and UTEP OOC, but two wins against Alabama and wins at Georgia and vs. South Carolina are their only top-100 SEC wins. They were swept by Mississippi State and lost their only game with Florida. In this crazy bubble season, will their great OOC wins overshadow a below-average conference performance? Welcome to the cutline, boys.
West Coast
Locks: St. Mary's (Auto-bid), Gonzaga
Near Locks: None
Bubble: None
Others
Locks: None
Near Locks:
Utah State (25-6, 15-2 RPI 31-WAC): Utah State got past Boise State in the WAC quarterfinals and are looking fairly strong for an at-large if they need it. A trip to the WAC final is probably a good idea, even with a good 9-4 record vs. the top-100. Losses to Utah and Long Beach State hurt. They have a win over BYU to fall back on should they need it, but being a mid-major, the Aggies don’t want to leave anything to chance. Right now, its tough to argue that they don't deserve an at-large if they really need it. Ask yourself this - if not Utah State, who would you give a bid to?
Bubble:
William & Mary (21-10, 14-7 RPI 58-CAA): Hey -remember us? With so many teams stumbling, "The College" is suddenly looking pretty good and sneaking up the board. They are 5-7 vs. the top-100, and have great wins over Richmond, at Wake Forest and at Maryland. They are a lot closer to an at-large than people think, but those three sub-200 losses are absolutely killer. Three losses to Old Dominion and the blowout loss at Iona didnt help either. If they had won any of those three games against sub-200 teams, they would be making their dance plans right now.
