We may as well accept our fates – the tournament is expanding to 96 teams, most likely next year. The money-bloated NCAA is looking for a sucker to take on the broadcasting rights to the tournament, and ESPN is the perfect target: self-important, loaded with available broadcasting space (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPN Classic), and the ability to write a big, fat, stupid, financially ruinous multi-billion dollar check. It’s a match made in heaven. Despite all of the obvious complaints about the expansion, there are a couple of ways that this thing can work, in spite of the greed involved.
1. No More Conference Tournaments
This is not very likely, but by giving each conference’s regular season champion the automatic NCAA bid, the tournament can reward sustained success in the lower-level conferences and ensure quality participants. But, you have to replace conference tournaments with four more regular season non-conference games. The most likely beneficiaries of the expanded tournament are the mediocre members of the BCS conferences, but without a conference tournament, there is no third lifeline for them to pile up a couple of quality wins at postseason conference tournaments after underwhelming regular seasons (ahem – Minnesota). If you’re a 6-10 ACC team or a 7-11 Big East team, you better damn well make sure that you have some quality wins in the nonconference, since with four extra games almost everybody will. Currently BCS teams have three NCAA bid lifelines – nonconference play, conference play and the conference tournaments. This will simply take one of those away and make for more significant games in November and December.
The major problem with this is – take a wild guess – money. Conference tournaments make a lot of money for the big conferences every year. The NCAA has to figure out how to replace that share of money, either by cutting the big conferences a sizeable check from their new ESPN dough or by sponsoring nonconference neutral-site tournaments early in the season and allowing the participating schools and conferences to take home most of the money. Most importantly, mix up the conferences in the tournaments and allow the Patriot League and MEAC teams three shots at some of the big boys to enhance their at-large chances. If there is more money to be had by doing things this way, the conferences will do it. We will have to wait and see if the new money from ESPN can subsidize this change.
2. Opening Round Games at Small Stadiums with Regional Teams
Do you see anything wrong with this picture?
There’s nobody f-ing there! Are you kidding me? This is a Sweet Sixteen game! The most baffling aspect of the decision to expand the tournament is that this year’s games were noticeably sparsely attended. It just plain looked bad. If people aren’t going to Regional Semifinals, they aren’t going to fill up the Carrier Dome for Charlotte vs. UConn. For expansion to work, the NCAA must make the Tournament a spectator sport again.
The solution? Downsize the Opening Round venues, send only regionally specific teams to the venues, and you will get full stadiums and a nice game atmosphere instead of the operating room atmosphere of the first few rounds this year. Let’s take Virginia as an example: How about a VCU-Virginia Tech opening round game at the 10,000 seat Patriot Center? Or how about a William & Mary-Charlotte game at the 7,500 seat Ted Constant Center in Norfolk? Even casual fans in the area will go to that game, since there will be regional interest. It also makes it easier for those boisterous pockets of hardcore fans of the schools to travel to the games on short notice, whereas right now they only get about 1/25th of the seating space at First and Second Round games in Salt Lake City.
3. Set It Up Correctly
Preserving any sort of continuity or tradition once the field gets to the final 64 teams will be difficult. We will have 24 seeds per region, and it will be interesting to see how they protect the 8 teams per region that will receive a bye. Will they expose the #1 seed to the winner of the 16 vs. 17 seed game? Probably not, since the 16 and 17 are more likely to be BCS or quality Mid-Major teams, not the MEAC and SWAC cupcakes that they currently play as 16 seeds. Although that’s how it should be set up, the more probable scenario is a reseeding after the opening rounds or the 1 seed facing the winner of #23 seed Nutsack A&M and #24 seed Butthump State, which would completely suck. I just don’t see how an 8th seed could be better off in the first round than the 1 seed, assuming that the 8th seed plays the surprise 9 vs. 24 winner, 24th seeded Butthump State, while the 1 seed has to face a team like this year’s pretty solid Wichita State squad. The NCAA wont let that happen, but maybe they should. One interesting thing that can come of this is a lower seed beating the system as follows – Ohio U. wins the MAC tournament and is rewarded with a nice 22 seed (thanks NCAA!). Instead of Georgetown in the first round, they will draw tenth-seeded Missouri. They beat Missouri, and instead of playing a top-ten quality team in the round of 64 (like 3rd seeded Georgetown), they draw a vulnerable Clemson squad, ensuring an easier path for low majors to make the round of 32. The chances for round of 64 upsets actually increases in this setup, as the very low seeds will draw overrated, flawed BCS conference teams in the round of 64 instead of behemoths like Kansas and Kentucky.
If the tournament goes the 23 vs. 24, winner plays the 1 seed route, then the opening round will probably be an abject disaster and prove that the NCAA is trying to protect their moneymaking 1 seeds. Who would go see the 23 vs. 24 games? Those poor kids will be playing in front of 1,000 people. The only thing that can save this setup is the competitiveness of the games. Why was the NIT so entertaining this year? It was entertaining because the teams were so evenly matched. You throw out thirty-two even matchups, increase the stakes (now it’s the NCAA Tournament), add a loud, small crowd, and you may have a winner.
I have ceased being surprised at how low the NCAA will stoop for a few extra bucks – let’s hope they decide that some of the ideas here are worth exploring.
