Forgive the delay on getting this "preview" published, things have been coming up left and right and much like the start to the year for pretty much every mid-major in the country, has been filled with lots of ups and downs. With that out of the way, lets get an early look at where the mid-majors of the country are in relation to the NCAA tournament bubble.
The Usual Suspects
Utah State Aggies
Every year, the Aggies seem to put together a quality resume and a solid record. If their early season start is any indication, this year will be no different. Unfortunately, Utah State has whiffed on their 2 big shots at quality early season upsets so far in road losses to Georgetown and BYU. A solid blowout win over Utah at home is the only thing for them to hang their hats on so far this year, but considering how weak the WAC is this year, it might be conceivable that they run the table.
The Aggies will be an interesting case study this year if they put together a super high win total and decent RPI, but fail to win a marquee victory in order to impress the selection committee. If they were to lose in their conference final, win a tough bracketbuster game and put together 28 or 29 wins, would they be left out, especially now that the NCAA tourney has expanded to 68? Stay tuned.
Richmond Spiders
It's tough to call an A-10 team a "mid-major", but for the purposes of this preview they will be. The Spiders have had an impressive start to the year, knocking off then #8 Purdue on a neutral court and winning a game on the road against a decent Pac-10 team in Arizona State. The only thing holding them back from being a top 25 team right now is the woeful 2OT loss to Iona on the road and a minor setback against another potential bubble team on the road in their close loss to Old Dominion.
They should be among the favorites in the A-10 this year along with Temple, especially considering the return of A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson. The emergence of Justin Harper should really help Richmond throughout the course of the season as he can take some of the scoring burden off Anderson. With a few more solid opportunities to get road wins OOC at VCU, Ga Tech and Seton Hall, Richmond could shore up their tourney bubble resume early in the season should they fail to win the A-10 this year.
St. Mary's Gaels
St. Mary's is another case study much like Utah State. They have cleaned up everyone else OOC but failed in their two big OOC opportunities to get marquee wins with a heartbreaking last second loss to BYU and a fairly good beating by a fantastic San Diego State team. While they have two other victories so far OOC against BCS teams in Texas Tech and St. John's, neither of those are high quality BCS teams that can carry a resume. The Gaels have one more chance for a decent road victory when they play at Mississippi State on Dec. 29th. That is a must win game for their at-large chances.
The Gaels will compete for the West Coast Conference title this year along with Gonzaga, but it is absolutely crucial for them that if they fail to get the automatic bid, they win at least 1 game against Gonzaga, preferably two, as Gonzaga is having a down year this year and won't be the major RPI boost that they have been in past years for the Gaels. Randy Bennett certainly has his work cut out for him this year and St. Mary's withdrawl from the bracketbusters is actually a big detriment to his team this year. One thing is for sure though, Mickey McConnell is one of our favorite players in the country here at Tourneybubble. The kid is shooting 55% from the field, 53% from the 3 point line and 94% from the FT line on the year. Just an outstanding player on a solid team.
Old Dominion Monarchs
Blaine Taylor's team is doing it again, making noise in the OOC portion of a very tough early season schedule. Returning 6 of their top 7 scorers, the Monarchs were picked to repeat as CAA Champs in what is a much better overall CAA league. With wins over solid mid-majors like Xavier and Richmond, a decent neutral court win over a down Clemson team and a very close loss to a fantastic Georgetown team, the Monarchs have put themselves right in contention for an at-large bid this year should they need one if they fail to win the rugged CAA.
Still on the schedule for ODU is a must-win game against a down Dayton team at home, a very tough road game at number 11 Missouri, what should be an upper tier, prime-time Bracketbuster game on ESPN and a rugged CAA slate. A high RPI and SOS should be enough to get the Monarchs into the NCAA tourney via the at-large, but they can ill afford another slip up like the one they just had against Delaware on the road in conference. One slip-up in December won't kill them, but failure to handle business against other mediocre teams in the CAA will.
Temple Owls
Temple isn't really a mid-major anymore, but just play along as we needed to fit them in somehow as they are definitely a bubble team this year based on their early season results. The Owls were a team that started the season in the Top 25, but saw losses to Cal and Texas A&M humble them early on. A solid rebound win this past weekend over Maryland has them back on the right track however, and with opportunities coming up against Duke, Georgetown and Villanova, the Owls have plenty of opportunity to make some noise. A solid win over a up and coming Georgia Bulldogs team is also not to be overlooked.
Fran Dunphy's boys are a solid basketball team that will once again compete for the A-10 title. If they are able to pull out a win against of the 3 ranked teams mentioned above, put up a very solid A-10 record with at least one win each over Xavier and Richmond, there is no reason Temple won't be squarely in the NCAA tourney will a solid RPI and SOS to boost their seed.
Welcome Back
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Shaka Smart's Havoc 2.0 is back for a followup to last years successful 27-9 debut that saw the Rams end the season by winning the CBI title. Returning pretty much everyone except first round NBA'er Larry Sanders, the Rams have once again gotten off to a fast start in the OOC portion of their schedule. While wins over UCLA and Wake have been downgraded a little by those teams subpar play for BCS schools, the Rams only losses have been to BCS schools as well in a very close loss to a ranked Tenn. team that won the Pre-season NIT and to a decent but not great South Florida team by 1 on the road in overtime. Neither loss is a season killer and certainly not going to hurt their bubble resume.
The downside, however, is that with UCLA losing badly to Montana at home, the Rams now lack a marquee win to hang their hat on. They will get an opportunity, however, as their next game is a must win for them to stay on the bubble, a tough road game against crosstown rival Richmond. Win that game and they are squarely on the bubble, lose it and they really have no more chances for a big OOC win unless they manage to draw a decent bracketbuster matchup. They will, however, have two more tough and underrated games against a very good Wofford team at home and a very daunting UAB team on the road. Winning both of those will also go a long way to boost their OOC resume. The Rams will also more than likely need to win at least 1 game in conference against ODU and George Mason to improve their in-conference resume as well.
Wichita State Shockers
The Wichita State Cornshockers are back, thanks in large part to Gregg Marshall's excellent coaching and system which he has finally got installed the way he wants out there in Kansas. A 3 point shooting dynamo, the Shockers can hang with any team in the country on their night if those outside shots are falling. Jt Durley and David Kyles are one of the best backcourts in the nation, with Kyles shooting an INCREDIBLE 64.5% from the field, an UNREAL 61% from the 3 point line (25-41 on the season!) and averaging over 15 a game. The Shockers are for real and should win a rugged Missouri Valley Conference title this year.
However, should they fail to win that title, Wichita State doesn't have much to fall back on right now. A close loss to UConn aside, they were soundly beaten by San Diego State and really only have 1 solid victory so far, a neutral court win over an improving Virginia team. The only have 3 more chances for good OOC wins, a tough road game against LSU, a tough home game against Tulsa and a potentially good Bracketbuster match-up later in the season. In our opinion, all 3 are must wins although the LSU and Tulsa games are MUST must wins in order to be considered for an at-large this year. They also must win at least 1 against Missouri State and Northern Iowa in conference this year as well.
Teams to Keep an Eye on
Missouri State Bears
The Bears are the first team in our list on teams to keep an eye on, teams that do not currently have at-large worthy resumes but could build to one by the end of the season. These teams are ones that we here at Tourneybubble feel will make noise before the season is done and could push their way onto the bubble should other teams falter. Mo St. lacks a marquee win right now although they nearly pulled one out against a very good Tenn squad on the road. This weekends game against Oklahoma State on the road is a must win for them to get that marquee victory. They will also need to put up a very good in conference record and beat Wichita State at least once and win a marquee bracketbuster matchup to have a chance.
Butler Bulldogs
Butler also is no longer a true mid-major, but for the sake of our sanity, we will qualify them as one for this preview. The Bulldogs, like Temple, began the year in the top 25 only to lose some tough early season games and fall out of the poll. Right now their best win is against a down Siena team, and a OT loss to Evansville at home may have sunk their at-large resume. They whiffed fairly significantly on their two best OOC chance so far, double digit losses to Duke and Louisville. With two must-win games against Xavier and Stanford coming up, Butler could play itself back into bubble talk. They will need to go nearly undefeated in the Horizon again this year with the only possible slip-up coming on the road against a very good Cleveland State team. They will have to win the home game against the Vikings later in the season.
Cleveland State Vikings
What a start to the season the Vikings have had. 11-0, with decent wins coming at home against Kent State and Iona. The only problem is, the Vikings lack a marquee win among those 11 victories, as they have played a fairly weak OOC schedule so far. Their next 3 games, however, should be the real proving ground for Cleveland State as they go on the road to play a solid Sam Houston State team followed by another marquee road win opportunity against West Virginia. They follow that up with a must-win home game against South Florida. A 2-1 record might be enough to push them onto the bubble, but the West Virginia game is crucial for them to get that marquee victory. A win against Butler in the Horizon is also a must-have for the Vikings this year. Cleveland State will definitely be an interesting case study this year should they need an at-large bid.
Xavier Musketeers
Xavier has had a tough early season, losing a hard fought neutral court game against Old Dominion and a tough road loss at Miami (OH). Thankfully, the Musketeers have much such a name for themselves over the past 10 years, they have plenty of opportunities to right the ship and get back on the bubble. Right now, their only good win is a home 3OT victory over a solid Wofford team, but they have plenty of chances on the horizon to get some marquee victories. A home game against Butler Thursday night is a must win, but they also have tough games coming up against Gonzaga and Cincinnati on the road and very tough but winnable home game against the Florida Gators on New Year's Eve. A tough A-10 schedule will need to be overcome, finishing in the top 4 (preferably 3) and getting good wins over Temple and Richmond in the process. One thing is for sure, Xavier will have it's chances this year.
