Here it is folks, the first Bubble Watch of the 2010-11 season. And if you are surprised by the results, you won't be alone. Baylor is in deep, deep trouble with very weak computer numbers and a lack of quality wins. If it was Selection Sunday today, its hard to see them getting a bid based on their play on the court, their saving grace is preseason hype. Their only chance to improve their resume will have to be in conference.
The same can also be said for Michigan State. Take a look at their resume so far - you tell me why they are assured a bid? The numbers will undoubtedly creep up, but if you take the "Michigan State" off the top of their resume, they would be lumped in with the pack scrambling for the last at-large bids.
As always, mid-major Bubblers need an RPI in the top-100 for consideration. Also taken into account is top-100 wins for mid-majors: the computer numbers might look nice now, but will the wins hold up? In other cases, the computer numbers are helped by quality losses. Computer numbers alone won't get you a look, so exclusions from the Bubble are primarily because a mid-major team hasn't beaten anyone halfway decent. There are precious few opportunities for quality nonconference wins left. And once they enter conference play mid-majors cannot do much to help their causes - except to keep winning.
ACC
Locks: Duke
Near Locks: Miami 10-3, 0-0 RPI 20); Boston College (10-2, 1-0 RPI 19); North Carolina (8-4, 0-0 RPI 25)
Bubble: Virginia Tech (7-4, 0-1 RPI 40): NC State (7-4, 0-0 RPI 62)
Treading Water: Florida State (11-3, 1-0 RPI 79); Virginia (8-4, 1-0 RPI 113); Maryland (8-4, 0-1 RPI 119)
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Xavier (7-3, 0-0 RPI 41); Richmond (10-3, 0-0 RPI 66), Rhode Island (8-4, 0-0 RPI 46)
Treading Water: None
Big East
Locks: Georgetown, Syracuse, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville
Near Locks: Villanova (10-1, 0-0 RPI 34)
Bubble: Providence (11-2, 0-0 RPI 53); Cincinnati (12-0, 0-0 RPI 96); St. John’s (7-3, 0-0 RPI 22)
Treading Water: None
Big Ten
Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Michigan State (7-4, 0-0 RPI 76); Wisconsin (10-2, 0-0 RPI 42); Illinois (10-3, 0-0 RPI 50); Northwestern (9-1, 0-0 RPI 51)
Treading Water: Michigan (9-2, 0-0 RPI 81)
Big XII
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Missouri
Near Locks: Texas A&M (10-1, 0-0 RPI 31)
Bubble: Oklahoma State (11-1, 0-0 RPI 35)
Treading Water: Baylor (8-3, 0-0 RPI 144); Nebraska (10-2, 0-0 RPI 101)
Conference USA
Locks: UCF
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Memphis (9-2, 0-0 RPI 57); Southern Miss (7-2, 0-0 RPI 47)
Treading Water: UAB (9-2, 0-0 RPI 72)
Mountain West
Locks: BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
Near Locks: None
Bubble: None
Treading Water: New Mexico (9-2, 0-0 RPI 66); Colorado State (8-3, 0-0 RPI 83)
Missouri Valley
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Northern Iowa (8-3, 0-0 RPI 45); Wichita State (8-2, 0-0 RPI 48)
Treading Water: Missouri State (8-3 RPI 85)
Pac-10
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: California (6-5, RPI 32); Arizona (11-2, RPI 43); Washington State (10-2, RPI 59); Washington (8-3, RPI 60)
Treading Water: UCLA (8-4, RPI 88); USC (8-5, RPI 49)
SEC
Locks: Kentucky
Near Locks: Vanderbilt (9-2, RPI 21), Florida (9-3, RPI 28)
Bubble: Tennessee (8-3, RPI 22), Georgia (9-2, RPI 51), Mississippi (9-3, RPI 58)
Treading Water: South Carolina (7-3, RPI 84)
West Coast
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Gonzaga (6-5, RPI 65); Portland (10-3, RPI 36); St. Mary’s (8-2, RPI 55)
Treading Water: None
Others
Locks: Old Dominion, Butler
Near Locks: Cleveland State (11-1, 2-0 Horizon: RPI 11)
Bubble: Drexel (8-2, 1-0 CAA: RPI 17)
Treading Water: Kent State (8-3, 0-0 MAC RPI 38); UCSB (5-4, 0-0 Big West RPI 54); Vermont (8-3, 0-0 America East RPI 39); Princeton (9-3, 0-0 Ivy RPI 44); Utah State (11-2, 0-0 WAC RPI 56); George Mason (9-2, 1-0 CAA RPI 69); Murray State (6-4, 2-1 OVC: RPI 75); VCU (7-4, 1-0 CAA: RPI 80)
