It happens every year - mid-majors make some early noise, jump to the top-25 in the RPI and then inevitably fade. Many times it isn't even their fault - the terrible teams in their conference wreck their RPI's, even if they win by 40. And then the other decent teams in the conference are dragged down, upset and sent below the acceptable at-large range in the RPI. At this point, you absolutely have to have some sort of out-of-conference wins to stay in the mix. Gaudy league records barely help your cause, because if you don't secure the auto-bid, league play is not going to save you.
Early-season darlings Cleveland State got crushed at Butler and then lost to Valpo, so their at-large chances are on the ropes. Similarly, Drexel is in dangerous territory, even with a very nice win at Louisville. Finishing in the middle of the pack in the CAA won't get them noticed, and their computer profile has tumbled dramatically. They are at the point where they need to go on a ten-game win streak to get back towards the cut line. It's that precarious.
As it stands, only a handful of mid-majors have NCAA-worthy OOC resumes: Gonzaga, Old Dominion, and Butler.
As always mid-majors need to have a top-100 RPI to be in consideration, and major conference teams with 100+ RPI’s need to have a really reason to be in the mix.
ACC
Locks: Duke
Near Locks: North Carolina (11-4, 1-0 RPI 21)
Bubble: Miami (11-5, 0-2 RPI 33); Boston College (12-4, 2-0 RPI 44); Virginia Tech (10-4, 1-1 RPI 61)
Treading Water: Florida State (11-5, 1-1 RPI 87); Clemson (12-4, 1-1 RPI 114); NC State (11-4, 1-0 RPI 106)
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Xavier (9-5, 1-0 RPI 44); Richmond (13-4, 2-0 RPI 68), Dayton (13-4, 1-1 RPI 53)
Treading Water: Rhode Island (9-6, 0-1 RPI 74)
Big East
Locks: Georgetown, Syracuse, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, St. John’s, West Virginia
Near Locks: Louisville (13-2, 2-0 RPI 42)
Bubble: Cincinnati (15-1, 2-1 RPI 57); Marquette (12-5, 3-1 RPI 87)
Treading Water: None
Big Ten
Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois
Near Locks: Wisconsin (12-3, 2-1 RPI 27)
Bubble: Minnesota (12-4, 1-3 RPI 35); Michigan State (9-5, 2-1 RPI 38)
Treading Water: Northwestern (10-4, 1-3 RPI 60); Michigan (9-2, 1-2 RPI 77); Penn State (9-6, 2-2 RPI 65)
Big XII
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M
Near Locks: Missouri (13-2, 0-1, RPI 47)
Bubble: Oklahoma State (13-2, 1-0 RPI 36)
Treading Water: Baylor (11-3, 1-0 RPI 122); Nebraska (13-2, 1-0 RPI 111); Iowa State (13-3, 0-1 RPI 96)
Conference USA
Locks: UCF
Near Locks: None
Bubble: UAB (11-3, 1-0 RPI 43); Marshall (9-4, 1-1 RPI 46); Memphis (12-3, 1-0 RPI 75); Southern Miss (9-2, 0-0 RPI 79)
Treading Water: UTEP (12-4, 1-0 RPI 81)
Mountain West
Locks: BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
Near Locks: None
Bubble: New Mexico (11-4, 0-1 RPI 69); Colorado State (10-4, 1-0 RPI 64)
Treading Water: None
Pac-10
Locks: Washington
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Arizona (14-3, 3-1 RPI 33); Washington State (12-4, 2-2 RPI 59); UCLA (9-6, 1-2 RPI 78); USC (10-6, 2-1 RPI 55)
Treading Water: California (8-7, 1-2 RPI 49)
SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida
Near Locks: Tennessee (10-5, 0-0 RPI 24)
Bubble: Georgia (12-2, 1-0 RPI 48); Mississippi (12-4, 0-1 RPI 64)
Treading Water: None
Others
Locks: Gonzaga
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Old Dominion (12-3, 3-1 CAA RPI 29); Portland (12-4, 0-1 WCC RPI 41); St. Mary’s (12-2, 2-0 WCC RPI 39); Wichita State (12-3, 4-1 MVC RPI 50); Missouri State (13-3, 5-0 MVC RPI 37); Butler (11-5, 4-1 Horizon RPI 26); Cleveland State (13-3, 4-2 Horizon RPI 30); Princeton (11-4, 0-0 Ivy RPI 44); Utah State (14-2, 3-0 WAC RPI 51)
Treading Water: Drexel (10-4, 2-2 CAA: RPI 56); James Madison (13-3, 3-1 CAA RPI 63); Jacksonville (9-3, 4-0 A-Sun RPI 73); VCU (11-5, 3-1 CAA RPI 67); Charleston (11-5, 4-0 SoCon RPI 70); Coastal Carolina (10-2, 5-0 Big South RPI 80); Valparaiso (10-5, 4-1 Horizon RPI 58); Harvard (9-3, 2-0 Ivy RPI 52)
