We here at Tourneybubble are huge proponents of the Bracketbuster on ESPN. While we actually tend to despise ESPN and its cadre of announcers, analysts, talking heads, BCS homers and faux-news, we love the Bracketbusters because it showcases mid-majors, teams the rest of the country rarely gets to see. Plenty of people have said to us, "why do you like the Bracketbusters, its basically a mid-major elimination game?" We find this argument silly. Bracketbusters showcases basketball played at a very high level to the rest of the country. If it wasn't for Bracketbusters, teams like ODU, George Mason, Utah State and quite a few others would probably NOT have received at-larges in the last few years. By giving the country a chance to see these teams play, they show that the basketball being played at the "mid-major" level is often times just as good as any being played by the BCS teams you see every night on ESPN.
It's not just the exposure that is so valuable either, the chance to play another very good team, out of conference, this late in the season is an invaluable experience. We here at TB honestly believe that Bracketbuster games played in recent years by teams like ODU, Butler, VCU, George Mason, Northern Iowa, Wichita State etc. have helped spur these teams on to unprecidented levels of success in the NCAA tourney. In the last 6+ years, mid-majors have made the NCAA Championship (Butler), Final 4 (George Mason), Elite 8 (Davidson) Sweet 16 (UNI, Bradley, Butler, St. Mary's, etc.) and had quite a few first round upsets (ODU, VCU, Ohio, Murray State, the list is quite long). We honestly believe that these late season OOC tests really prepare teams for the type of matchups they might get in the tournament and wouldn't normally find in their respective conferences. With that in mind, let's take a look at this years important Bracketbuster games as they relate to the NCAA tournament bubble.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams at Wichita State Shockers
VCU and Wichita State will kick off the Bracketbusters in what is sure to be a fantastic matchup of run and gun teams from the two powerhouse conferences featured in the Bracketbuster, the CAA and the MVC. Both the Rams and Shockers love to get up and down the court, shoot the 3 and try and wear the other team out with their depth. While neither team has a very strong bubble resume, both teams will have a big effect on the bubble. If WSU were to win this game at home, win some of the big remaining MVC matchups on their schedule and make a run to the finals at Arch Madness, the Shockers could make a claim for an at-large bid considering the bubble pool is still relatively weak.
On the other hand, VCU probably played itself out of at-large contention by losing on the road at Northeastern, its second 200+ Rpi conference loss, the first being on the road to Georgia State. Unfortunately for the Rams, they just don't have enough quality wins in conference or out of conference to offset those losses. They can, however, play spoiler in two different ways. By beating WSU on the road, they could potentially end WSU's chances to get an at-large bid this year. However, should they lose to WSU and then go on to win the CAA, they could potentially ruin other CAA teams hopes of getting a second or possibly even third bid from that conference. Alot will also depend on what the other CAA teams involved in the BB do as well.
As for the game itself, expect a high tempo, high scoring affair with ALOT of pressing from the Rams, alot of turnovers from both teams and alot of 3 point attempts. Brad Burgess, VCU's rangy 6"5 do everything guard/forward, will be a nightmare for Wichita State to defend. However, WSU's Toure Murray should be up to the challenge. One of the best matchups in the Bracketbuster will be on the inside in this game, with VCU big man Jamie Skeen try to bang bodies with Wichita State's very own handful in the paint, J.T. Durley. Not only can both big men bang in the paint, they both present matchup problems by being able to step out and hit the 3 pointer. Durley is hardly alone inside however, as 7 footer Garret Stutz and 6"8 Gabe Blair will also be doing dirty work underneath the glass. The Rams are a very young team though, especially inside where they will have a tough time keeping Wichita State's big men off the boards and out of the paint on the offensive end. Our prediction is that Wichita State's size and homecourt advantage are too much for the Rams and the Shockers will prevail in this game at home.
George Mason Patriots at Northern Iowa Panthers
In what is more than likely going to be marquee matchup of the Bracketbusters due largely to the recent NCAA tournament success of both teams, another MVC-CAA clash will highlight two of the most talented teams in the BB's as well as two of its top coaches. Jim Laranagga's Patriots from the CAA are a hard-nosed, well schooled basketball team who were made famous by their "scramble defense" which helped them to be one of, if not THE biggest Cinderella in NCAA tourney history when they made the Final Four in 2006. While all of those players have since graduated, the after-effects of that magical run are still being felt in Fairfax with the top recruiting classes and national attention Jim Laranagga's club has been receiving. The current Mason edition is led by All-CAA and do everything guard Cam Long, a 6-4 dynamo who can attack the rim, shoot lights out from 3 and play some solid D. Mason is hardly a one man team though, as Luke Hancock, Mike Morrison, Andre Cornelius and Ryan Pearson can all fill up a score sheet on any given night.
Mason will be a very tough team to stop offensively, but if anyone can do it, the Panthers from Northern Iowa certainly can. Year in and year out they are one of the top defensive teams in the country, led by coach Ben Jacobson's hardnosed style of D, the Panthers suffocate teams defensively and are very tough to beat at home as the previous year's CAA Champions, Old Dominion, found out in last year's Bracketbuster. While this current Northern Iowa squad isn't quite as good, they still have a formidable team led by guards Johnny Moran and Kwadzo Ahelegbe who can light it up from 3 or attack the rim whenever they want. The recent injury to power forward Lucas O'Rear, who really has been the heart and soul of the team this year, might be a real setback that Northern Iowa will have to really fight hard to overcome. He gave them a toughness and attitude that will be next to impossible to replace.
While it is VERY tough to pick against Northern Iowa at home, especially considering what we witnessed last year when Northern Iowa dominated ODU for large stretches of the game, this year's MVC-CAA matchup should have a different ending. GMU desperately needs this win to hang on to any shot at an at-large, and with the injury to O'Rear, we predict Mason will be just a little too tough inside for the Panthers to handle. A low scoring, tightly fought road win for the Patriots is what we are predicting.
Utah State Aggies vs. St. Mary's Gaels
A rematch of the 2008-09 Bracketbuster, this is being billed by ESPN as the marquee matchup of the Bracketbuster although we here at Tourneybubble disagree. While Utah State is the only current BB team to be ranked (#21 in the ESPN/USA today rankings), we here at TB feel they are extremely overrated. Having zero top 100 wins usually tends to make us feel that way about any team, but add in that they have only 2 top 150 wins and well, its safe to say we don't think they should be ranked in the polls right now. That doesn't mean they aren't a good team, for all we know they could be a great team as both of their losses (Georgetown, BYU) are to very good teams. But losing to good teams and beating bad ones doesn't tell us a whole heck of a lot. That's why to us, this is the most interesting matchup of them all. Will Utah State prove they are for real? Will St. Mary's continue to defend their very tough home court and further solidify their at-large candidacy? That's why we love this matchup and can't wait to see how it plays out.
Utah State has one of, if not THE best home court in college basketball. In our opinion, Utah State could play with and potentially beat anybody in front of their rabid fans. They have one of the longest home court winning streaks in the nation for a reason. St. Mary's, by its own rights, has a very good home court as well and thats what makes this game so tough to predict. Just how good IS Utah State? How big of an advantage is it for St. Mary's to be playing at home and how well will Utah State get up for this game without their home fans? We honestly don't think getting up for this game will be a problem for the Aggies as this is a MUST win for Utah State to not only get a top 100 victory, but get a top 100 ROAD victory, something pretty much all potential bubble teams must have. By the same token, St. Mary's needs another big time Top 100 victory to seal up their resume as well. They are in better shape than Utah St. with wins over St. John's and Gonzaga on the road, but they also missed quite a few chances with a close loss to BYU and fairly big blowouts against San Diego St. and Vanderbilt on the road. Beating this solid Utah State team would probably wrap up a potential at large bid should the Gaels need it if they fall short in their conference tourney.
As for the matchup, the Gaels and Aggies are both gunners. They love to shoot the 3 and are both fairly proficient in that department, with the Aggies shooting over 37% as a team and the Gaels shooting a very good 39% from beyond the arc. St. Mary's, however, shoots an amazing 50% from the field as a team, something which should serve them quite well at home. Brian Green vs. Mickey McConnell is a 3 pointer shooters wet dream of a matchup with both guys averaging an astounding 47 and 48% from beyond the arc respectively. While both teams have a shooters chance in this game, we here are Tourneybubble think St. Mary's will be just a little too good at home and for that reason we like St. Mary's to win this game.
Cleveland State Vikings vs. Old Dominion Monarchs
Another great matchup put together by the Bracketbuster selection committee puts together two teams with very solid RPI's and very legit chances for at-large bids in the Vikings and Monarchs. Cleveland State made some noise earlier in the season by starting the season 12-0 before finally losing a tough one on the road at West Virginia. They Vikings managed to climb into the top 25 and position themselves well for an at-large bid should they not win the Horizon tourney title. The only thing keeping them from possibly getting that at large, however, is the lack of real quality wins. Much like Utah State, alot of their impressive OOC record was filled with wins racked up against lesser competition. Kent State was their only top 100 victory OOC, so the Bracketbuster once again provides a mid major with a big time chance to improve their bubble resume by getting a late OOC win in February. A win against Old Dominion would give CSU a top 50 road victory to go along with a top 100 victory in conference over Valpo. Saturday's upcoming conference game against Butler is also huge for Cleveland State as getting swept by Butler, another potential bubble team, would be a huge blow to their at-large chances.
ODU has a different problem than Cleveland State, but one that is equally troubling to their bubble resume. The Monarchs have a very impressive OOC resume, beating 4 top 100 RPI teams OOC, with the only two losses coming to ranked teams. No, the Monarchs problem as been in the CAA, where they have dropped disappointing road games to Delaware and Drexel and suffered a home loss to VCU. They currently sit in third place in the CAA which will make it tough for them to garner consideration for an at-large bid. While 4 of ODU's 5 losses have been to top 100 rpi teams, failing to finish in the top 2 would put a significant strain on their bubble resume. Not to mention the prospect of tough road games at VCU, GMU and James Madison on the horizon. Finishing in the top 3 will be critical for their at-large chances. However, winning a game over a top 50 RPI team like Cleveland State late in the season would give them yet another top 50 win OOC and provide them with a little more leeway with their conference finish.
On the court, we see this game being a real slugfest. Both teams are known for their hard fought defense, with Cleveland State's pressing style standing in direct contrast to ODU's rugged half court defense. The offensive strengths of both teams are quite different as well as Cleveland State loves to shoot the 3 and dribble drive why Old Dominion prefers a more slow paced, inside out attack, preferring to pick and choose when they run and gun. Cleveland State's main advantage should be its shooting and super quick guard play. Old Dominion's biggest strengths are its size, rebounding and tough to score on defense. In a game of such constrasting styles with two teams who are very unfamiliar with one another, we here at Tourneybubble will take the team with the homecourt advantage and the lights out defense to win in a rugged, gritty, low scoring affair.
Overall, the Bracketbusters is one of our favorite weekends of the year right up there with opening weekend, Conference tourney weekends and the first weekend of the NCAA tourney when all the big upsets usually happen. It pits mid majors from across the country in hard fought battles, giving them national exposure that they otherwise might not get. Not only that, it conditions these teams to be ready for anything in the NCAA tourney and in our opinion, is one of the main reasons we've seen mid majors make such deep runs into the tournament that we hadn't really seen in quite some time.
