It has been a sad year for ESPN's once-proud Bubble Watch franchise. Eamonn Brennan is the latest scribe to have the honor of pissing off almost every fanbase in college basketball, reducing the watch to a lengthy bitching session about how bad the teams on the bubble are. The words "soft underbelly", "soft", and "weak" are used about as often as periods.
I've got news for you Mr. Brennan - bubble teams are supposed to suck. If they were good, they would already be in the tournament. The only reason these teams are being discussed is because they haven't won enough big games. If they had won a lot of big games, we wouldn't be talking about them - its that simple.
When you complain that team is only 1-5 against the Top-50, just remember that that is normal. If the team was 5-1 against the Top-50, they would be named Duke. Only the best teams in the country win a majority of their games against top competition, and that in turn makes them the best teams in the country. The teams that lose those big games are relegated to the bubble. The names may change, but the flaws of bubble teams remain the same every year. You would have to be an idiot to claim that this year's bubble is weaker than in the past, because its always week. Just give it a rest already.
Now, Eamonn Brennan might be a nice guy. He may even know a little bit about college basketball. But you can definitely tell that this is his first Bubble Rodeo, so to speak.
ACC
Analysis: Boston College is in serious trouble now. The home loss to Miami means that losing seven of ten has seriously diminished a once-promising resume. A nice win over Texas A&M wont even be taken into consideration without sweeping their final three (at UVA, at VT and vs. Wake). Florida State realisitically needs only one more league win to sew things up. Virginia Tech’s game vs. Duke could either put them in the tournament or on the ropes – it’s that important. If they can't grab that, they will need to win vs. BC and at Clemson to lock up a bid (finally). After (hopefully) a home win over Wake, Clemson can turn its sights to a trip to Duke and a home game against Virginia Tech. The Tigers need a statement in one of those two games to really make a move. Maryland is a road win at UNC away from joining the conversation.
Locks: Duke, North Carolina
Near Locks: Florida State (19-8, 9-4 RPI 54)
Bubble: Boston College (16-11, 6-7 RPI 50); Virginia Tech (18-8, 8-5 RPI 64); Clemson (17-9, 7-6 RPI 65)
Treading Water: Maryland (18-10, 7-6 RPI 82)
Atlantic 10
Analysis: Nothing new here - Richmond needs to win its last three to maintain its tenuous spot in the field of 68.
Locks: Xavier, Temple
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Richmond (21-7, 10-3 RPI 62)
Treading Water: Dayton (19-9, 7-6 RPI 60)
Big East
Analysis: My apologies to Marquette - maybe you are pretty good. But the fact remains that you have 11 losses overall, and 4 wins against top competition, which means they win just over one-quarter of their games against good teams. Don't exhale yet, Golden Eagles. Cincy's big win at Georgetown gives it a fantastic 6 vs. the top-50, which should be good enough to get them in even if they struggle down the stretch.
Locks: Syracuse, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgetown, St. John’s, Cincinnati
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Marquette (17-11, 8-7 RPI 51)
Treading Water: None
Big Ten
Analysis: Illinois, if it can get to .500 in the conference, is in good shape for an at-large. They have too many quality wins to be passed from behind if they win two more Big Ten games. Minnesota, Penn State and Michigan are pretty much in the "can't lose again" period of the year, although Minnesota needs to win just to stop its profuse bleeding. Penn State, if it can somehow win its last two Big Ten games, may just play itself into the field. Michigan State is looking more and more strong, if only because they keep winning while others poop the bed.
Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Near Locks: Illinois (17-11, 7-8 RPI 38)
Bubble: Minnesota (17-10, 6-9 RPI 48); Michigan State (15-11, 8-7 RPI 37);
Treading Water: Penn State (15-12, 8-8 RPI 53); Michigan (16-12, 7-9 RPI 66)
Big XII
Analysis: Kansas State only needs to get to 8-8 to clinch a bid, although that may be difficult. Both Baylor and Nebraska need to do more than simply hold serve - both need to make a statement. Nebraksa needs all three of its final games, and Baylor probably needs all three as well to have a good chance at an at-large. Being outside the field at this point of the season means that they have to pass people, which means winning games that they aren't supposed to.
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M
Near Locks: Kansas State (18-9, 7-6 RPI 27);
Bubble: Baylor (16-10, 6-7 RPI 83); Nebraska (18-9, 6-7 RPI 76)
Treading Water: None
Conference USA
Analysis: It all comes down to next weeks UAB at Southern Miss matchup: the winner has the upper hand in their CUSA at-large battle. Memphis swept both teams, but has a couple of questionable losses that could offset that. They just need to win the games they should, starting with Saturday's doozie at UTEP.
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: UAB (19-7, 9-4 RPI 34); Memphis (21-7, 9-4 RPI 32); Southern Miss (18-6, 9-4 RPI 40)
Treading Water: None
Mountain West
Analysis: Colorado State has only a win at UNLV so far after five shots at the league's powerhouses. After losing at BYU, its likely that a win at San Diego State is necessary to help the Rams get back into serious consideration. Even if they get that, the resume isn't spectacular enough for them to feel safe.
Locks: BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Colorado State (17-9, 8-5 RPI 44)
Treading Water: None
Pac-10
Analysis: Both Washington and UCLA took care of business and are a win or two away from locking up a bid. UCLA has a tough road ahead (vs. Arizona and then at Washington and Washington State), but one win should seal the deal.
Locks: Arizona
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Washington (19-8, 11-5 RPI 36); UCLA (20-8, 11-4 RPI 41);
Treading Water: None
SEC
Analysis: Alabama saved its at-large lives with a last-second win at home over a dreadful Auburn team. Georgia, who has been stuck in the at-large waiting room for weeks now, let a win at Florida slip away. They should be OK with three more wins, but could lock things up if they can win at Alabama to close out the regular season.
Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Georgia (18-9, 7-6 RPI 39); Alabama (19-8, 11-2 RPI 79)
Treading Water: None
Others
Analysis: Old Dominion's dominating win at JMU put it in prime position. Since there are Tourneybubble rooting interests involved, we are waiting for one more league win before locking them up - that way we can be sure the committee will have nothing to bitch about on their resume. St. Mary's lost a costly one vs. Gonzaga, and now appear to be on their way out of the field and nearly off the board altogether.
Conference losses by VCU, Cleveland State and Charleston have all but ended their chances at an at-large bid.
Locks: George Mason
Near Locks: Old Dominion (23-6, 13-4 CAA RPI 26)
Bubble: Gonzaga (19-9, 10-3 WCC RPI 63); St. Mary’s (20-7, 10-3 WCC RPI 55); Wichita State (22-6, 14-3 MVC RPI 49); Missouri State (22-7, 14-3 MVC RPI 51); Utah State (24-3, 12-1 WAC RPI 19); Belmont (25-4, 17-1 A-Sun RPI 46); Butler (19-9, 12-5 Horizon RPI 45); Harvard (18-4, 9-1 Ivy RPI 43);
Treading Water: VCU (21-8, 12-4 CAA RPI 57); Cleveland State (21-6, 12-4 Horizon RPI 35); Charleston (22-7, 14-2 SoCon RPI 64)
