Today is about survival. The opening rounds of the major conference tournaments begin today, with a number of Bubblers doing battle with squads that could destroy their at-large hopes. Even though chalk has reigned so far, the number of available bids will shrink dramatically over the next two days. Plenty of teams are just one win away from Dancing, while others need to win no-help games to stay in the mix. Here's a quick run-down:
No-Win Games (games that wont help your hopes much, but could end them altogether)
Boston College vs. Wake Forest
Michigan State vs. Iowa
Georgia vs. Auburn
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech
Penn State vs. Indiana
UAB vs. East Carolina
Opportunity Games (if you want to be in the tournament, you will win this game)
Colorado vs. Kansas State
Washington State vs. Washington
You can debate the merits of beating a sub-100 RPI team all you want, but this year it looks like the No-Win games may actually help the Bubblers. The most important thing is to keep playing. Survive and advance.
UPDATE 2100
Colorado is locked up by virtue of their threep of Kansas State. Despite serious non-conference SOS issues, six top-50 wins are good enough this year. Congratulations Buffs, you earned it.
UAB's loss to East Carolina in the CUSA quarterfinals doesn't eliminate the Blazers, but its going to be a very long wait for Selection Sunday. Many things can happen between now and then, so we aren't ready to write them off yet.
Michigan State, USC, Memphis and Georgia took care of business and live to fight another day. Next up for Georgia is a must-win against Alabama. Michigan State draws a pissed off Purdue in the quarterfinals.
Locks (58): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Temple, Xavier, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, St. John’s, Connecticut, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Colorado, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona, UCLA, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, George Mason, Old Dominion (CAA), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Morehead State (Ohio Valley), Indiana State (Missouri Valley), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Gonzaga (WCC), Wofford (SoCon), St. Peter's (MAAC), Butler (Horizon), Oakland (Summit), Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt), Long Island (Northeast), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), America East, Big West, Ivy, Mid-American, Patriot, Southland, SWAC, MEAC, WAC, Conference USA
Near Locks (2): Washington, Illinois
Available Bids (8)
Bubble (15): Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Richmond, Michigan, Michigan State, UAB, USC, Memphis, Georgia, Alabama, St. Mary’s, Missouri State, Utah State, VCU
Treading Water (5): UTEP, Penn State, Harvard, Washington State, New Mexico
ACC
Bubble:
Virginia Tech (19-10, 9-7 RPI 63 I SOS: 87)
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, vs. Florida State
Case Against: Swept by UVA, loss at Georgia Tech, RPI, OOC wins are lacking
The Hokies predictably lost at Clemson, and now are in very dangerous territory. Beating Georgia Tech to open the ACC tournament is a must, and now it looks like notching a second win over Florida State is the only way they can safely secure a bid to the dance. Almost all of the luster of the Duke win vanished with consecutive losses to bubble teams. While they are barely clinging to one of the last at-larges right now, Championship Week craziness could cost them a place in the dance just like it did last season. A win over Georgia Tech would give the Hokies ten ACC wins, and the only teams to ever miss the NCAA Tournament with ten ACC wins of any kind are Virginia Tech (2008) and Virginia Tech (2010). Oh crap - forget I said that.
Boston College (20-11, 10-7 RPI 45 I SOS: 37)
Case For: Sweep of Virginia Tech, win vs. Clemson, RPI, SOS
Case Against: Home loss to Yale
Beating Wake Forest again puts the Eagles at 10-7 in the ACC, and they are probably one win over Clemson away from securing a spot in the tourney. The computer numbers are there, and with the OOC win over Texas A&M, they have to be a decided fourth in the ACC at-large pecking order. At least they're winning, right?
Clemson (20-10, 9-7 RPI 58 I SOS: 74)
Case For: Wins vs. Florida St., BC, Virginia Tech
Case Against: Losses at South Carolina, at UVA, at NC State
The Tigers took care of Virginia Tech to set up a possible elimination game against Boston College in the ACC quarterfinals, provided they can beat Wake Forest. They will most likely get to 10 ACC wins, but their profile is eerily similar to Virginia Tech's unsuccessful 2010 resume. A home loss to Michigan could also come back to haunt them, but an 8-7 mark against the top-100 is above average in this bubble field. In the end, beating Wake and then BC should be enough to earn them a bid.
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
Richmond (24-7, 13-3 RPI 55 I SOS: 138)
Case For: Wins vs. Purdue, VCU, A-10 record, 10-2 in last 12 games
Case Against: loss vs. Georgia Tech, SOS is weak
The Spiders beat Duquesne to finish up 13-3 in the A-10, but they need to avoid a bad loss in the conference tournament to keep from sweating out Selection Sunday. The win over Purdue continues to shore up the weak SOS and questionable loss to Georgia Tech, and the 5-6 top-100 record is fragile, as Seton Hall and Duquesne are barely above the necessary threshold. They face St. Louis/Rhode Island in the A-10 quarters, with a possible date with Temple looming in the semifinals. Beating Rhode Island should be enough, but a win over Temple will definitely put things on ice.
Big East
Bubble:
None
Big Ten
Bubble:
Michigan State (17-13, 10-9 RPI 49 I SOS: 13)
Case For: SOS, wins vs. Wisconsin, Washington, Illinois
Case Against: 13 (likely 14) losses, 9-12 vs. top-100
Michigan State survived Iowa to move closer to a bid. The Spartans are still looking at 14 total losses (assuming they dont win the Big Ten tournament). The wins are still decent, and 9 top-100 scalps help them stand out amongst the bubble pack. They will probably get in the dance based on name recognition alone. Why would the committee roll the dice with the Missouri States of the world when they can get mega-popular, brand-name Sparty into the tournament? Thus, one more win at the BTT should be more than enough.
Michigan (18-12, 9-9 RPI 56 I SOS: 18)
Case For: Swept Michigan State, Penn State, win at Clemson, SOS
Case Against: Haven't beaten anyone better than a bubble team (no signature wins)
The Wolverines completed the sweep of Michigan State to stay in the thick of things, and helped boost a profile that counts the Michigan State conquests and an early season W over Harvard as their only top-50 wins. The Wolverines have beaten only two likely tournament teams, and that would be MSU and Oakland. Still, nine top-100 wins looks decent, and winning this weekend put them in OK shape heading into the conference tournament. A win over Illinois will seal the deal, but a loss will make for a nervous Sunday, at you can't really call a sweep of a fellow bubble team as a "signature win".
Big XII
Bubble:
None
Conference USA
Bubble:
UAB (22-8, 12-4 RPI 30 I SOS: 67)
Case For: RPI, CUSA regular season champs, beat VCU OOC, 10-7 vs. top-100
Case Against: Who have they beaten? Lost in CUSA quarterfinals
Yikes. UAB lost to East Carolina in the CUSA quarterfinals and now will be sweating striaght through Selection Sunday. In a double-edged sword situation, the loss hurts but ECU consequently jumps into the top-100 giving UAB ten such conquests, and that also means the loss to the Pirates isn't considered "bad". Still, when there are questions about the quality of the conference you won, it wont help to lose to the eighth-best team. The computers love the Blazers, who sport an 10-7 record against the top-100, mostly earned by beating their CUSA bretheren. Their best OOC win was against VCU, who are a fellow Bubbler, but they got swept by Memphis. The regular season CUSA crown is their best argument at this point. They are lucky there is a weak bubble this year, as they are the very definition of paper champs right now.
Memphis (23-9, 11-6 RPI 34 I SOS: 47)
Case For: Sweep of UAB, win at Gonzaga
Case Against: Losses at SMU, at ECU, at Rice are mugly (and thats not a typo)
The Tigers swept UAB and Southern Miss, but they didnt win the conference and have lost two head-scratchers sandwiched around getting blasted by UTEP by 27 points. Although they look decent on paper, they have looked very shaky on the court lately. Their hopes depend on whether the committee believes their eyes or their computers. The bad losses may do the Tigers in barring a run at the conference tourney.
Mountain West
Bubble:
None
Pac-10
Bubble:
USC (19-13, 11-8 RPI 66 l SOS: 41)
Case For: Wins vs. UCLA, Texas, Arizona, @Washington
Case Against: Swept by Oregon, losses at TCU, vs. Bradley, @Oregon State
The Trojans jump back onto the bubble with the win at Washington, but still have plenty of work to do. If anything, theyve proven that they can beat anyone, but unfortunately they have proven that they can lose to anyone as well. As great as the wins are, the losses are equally horrific. They have won five of six, so they are trending in the right direction. But those losses - yikes, just yikes.
SEC
Bubble:
Georgia (21-10, 10-7 RPI 40 I SOS: 39)
Case For: RPI, wins over UAB, Kentucky, at Tennessee
Case Against: Losses are piling up, just 5-10 vs. top-100
The Bulldogs got past Auburn, but still are on the bubble because they have a ton of "good" losses. They have beaten UAB, Kentucky, and Tennessee, but a road win at Alabama would have gone a long way to cement their current place in the field. Now, the 5-10 vs. the top-100 record doesnt look so hot, even though nine of them are top-50 losses. The rematch with Alabama serves as a quasi-elmination game for both teams.
Alabama (20-10, 12-4 RPI 80 I SOS: 125)
Case For: Wins vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee, vs. Georgia
Case Against: 4-6 vs. top-100, losses to St. Peters, Iowa, Providence, Arkansas
Despite the big win over Georgia, the Tide they have as many sub-100 losses (4) as top-100 wins (4). They will need to get past Georgia again, and possibly Kentucky in the semifinals, to realistically expect an at-large. The committee will be able to see right through the gaudy SEC record, so they still have plenty of work to do.
Others
Bubble:
St. Mary’s (22-8, 12-4 WCC RPI 43 I SOS: 112)
Case For: Wins vs. St Johns, at Gonzaga
Case Against: 4-7 vs. top-100, loss to San Diego
The loss to Gonzaga leaves St. Mary's in a vulnerable position, now reliant on other teams to leave enough room for them in the field, which is a risky proposition. They are closer to the cutline than most people seem to realize. The Gaels righted the ship after a devastating three game losing streak but are a very shaky 4-7 against the top-100, with only two true quality wins (St. John's in early November and at Gonzaga). Even though they are probably one of the 37 best at-large candidates, the committee has a couple of legit reasons (recent form, loss to San Diego) to keep them out of the field.
Missouri State (25-8, 17-4 MVC RPI 42 I SOS: 127)
Case For: Sweep of Wichita State, RPI, MVC regular-season champs
Case Against: 3-6 vs. top-100, SOS, no good OOC wins
The Bears won the regular season MVC title. That's the good thing. The bad thing is that the wins over Wichita State are two of their three wins against top-100 competition (the other was against tourney-bound Indiana State), and they have three sub-100 losses. Now that they need an at-large, they are a fringe candidate at best. The MVC may be a good conference, but when your best OOC win is Oral Roberts (#139), then you are probably headed to the NIT.
Utah State (26-3, 14-1 WAC RPI 18 I SOS: 122)
Case For: Record, RPI, win at St. Mary's
Case Against: One top-100 win
They are ranked - so they are good right? The truth is, nobody really knows. At least you can say that they are consistent, since they always beat the bad teams that they play. Please, for the love of God, win the WAC tournament so we don't have to talk about you anymore. Pretty please?
VCU (23-11, 14-7 CAA RPI 48 l SOS: 91)
Case For: Wins vs. George Mason, at ODU, vs. UCLA
Case Against: Lost four of five to close regular season, losses to Georgia State, South Florida and Northeastern
After a hard-fought loss to Old Dominion in the CAA final, VCU has been thrown back into the at-large pool. We aren't going to discount how good their performance in Richmond was, but losing your final three home conference games should doom you to the NIT. Couple that with three losses as bad as any fringe bubble candidate could have, and VCU should be a real longshot for an at-large. The Rams have some impressive top-50 wins to go with a win at Wichita State. Unfortunately, losing four of their last five to close out the regular season is probably too much to overcome for an at-large. Now that they need one, they will need the perfect storm of chalk conference tournaments to make their way towards the cutline.
(images via CNNSI)
