Bubble Friday is all about opportunity. No more no-win games, no potential for bad losses, just golden, glorious opportunites to book your trip to the Dance. Most (if not all) the Bubblers face off against quality competition, with the chance to either knock off a marquee opponent or send a bitter Bubble rival spiraling to the NIT. The stakes don't get any bigger than this.
Georgia and Alabama square off in the SEC quarterfinals, and the winner should be in good shape for an at-large. Georgia may be able to survive a loss, but Alabama still has to prove to doubters that they can beat quality competition in a big game. 12-4 in the SEC is great, but the committee is going to look long and hard at how they got there. Georgia has no bad losses, but simply havent won enough quality games to feel comfortable. A loss will send Alabama into the 80's in the RPI and make it a difficult proposition for inclusion. Stay tuned.
The ACC also hosts a Bubble elimination game between Clemson and Boston College. Clemson probably needs it more, as their profile is missing a good number of marquee wins. Three sub-100 losses are an albatross for the Tigers, and a loss to the Eagles will mean a less than 40% chance at inclusion. Boston College can essentially seal its bid with a win, but a loss will reduce their chances to a coin flip.
Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, USC and Richmond are staring at bid-clinching games today - who can cash in? New Mexico faces a chance to beat BYU for a third time and a chance to get back on the Bubble board. Prepare for the Bubble to contract significantly today.
Upates will come througout the day.
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Bubble Battle 1 is in the books. Alabama's huge 65-59 comeback overtime win essentially pops Georgia's bubble. Alabama isnt assured a bid, but they are darn near close and - more importantly - they are still playing.
UPDATED 1700
With its comeback win over Illinois, Michigan is now a lock to make the tournament. With Ohio State up next, there is nothing more that can hurt their profile. The sweeps of the fellow Big Ten Bubble teams, combined with this win and a now-impressive early season win at Clemson, assures the Wolverines a spot in the Dance. Congratulations, Maize and Blue!
Clemson destroyed Boston College, earning their second win over the Eagles this year. A showing like this was badly needed, since the Tigers needed to convince people that they can play like a tournament team. While it isnt a bid-sealer, its going to take a lot of bid-thieves to undo this impressive work. If they want to make sure of things, they can beat a suddenly vulnerable North Carolina team tomorrow in the ACC semifinals. BC tumbles towards the cutline, but are definitely still in the running. They have better wins than St. Mary's and Georgia, and an impressive SOS. Nothing to do now but wait and see what happens around them.
Locks (60): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Temple, Xavier, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, St. John’s, Connecticut, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Colorado, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, George Mason, Old Dominion (CAA), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Morehead State (Ohio Valley), Indiana State (Missouri Valley), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Gonzaga (WCC), Wofford (SoCon), St. Peter's (MAAC), Butler (Horizon), Oakland (Summit), Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt), Long Island (Northeast), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), America East, Big West, Ivy, Mid-American, Patriot, Southland, SWAC, MEAC, WAC, Conference USA
Near Locks (1): Illinois
Available Bids (7)
Bubble (14): Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Richmond, Michigan State, UAB, USC, Memphis, Georgia, Alabama, St. Mary’s, Missouri State, Utah State, VCU
Treading Water (5): UTEP, Penn State, Harvard, Washington State, New Mexico
ACC
Bubble:
Virginia Tech (20-10, 10-7 RPI 65 I SOS: 87)
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, vs. Florida State
Case Against: Swept by UVA, loss at Georgia Tech, RPI, OOC wins are lacking
The Hokies crushed Georgia Tech without breaking a sweat, which is good since they basically have no players left. Seven scholarship players remain for the short-handed Hokies, and tonight they have a golden opportunity to punch their ticket to the Dance against Florida State. Almost all of the luster of the Duke win vanished with consecutive losses to bubble teams. While they are barely clinging to one of the last at-larges right now, Championship Week craziness could cost them a place in the dance just like it did last season. The Hokies have ten ACC wins, and the only teams to ever miss the NCAA Tournament with ten ACC wins of any kind are Virginia Tech (2008) and Virginia Tech (2010). Oh crap - forget I said that. But the opportunity is there - beat Florida State tonight, and Seth Greenberg and the Hokies will probably be dancing.
Boston College (20-12, 10-8 RPI 55 I SOS: 37)
Case For: Sweep of Virginia Tech, win vs. Clemson, SOS, Win over Texas A&M
Case Against: Home loss to Yale, two losses to Clemson
Ouch - Boston College got smoked by Clemson and now must wait a lonnnnnnngggggg two days for Selection Sunday. The Eagles finished at 10-8 in the ACC, but with two important losses to Clemson, a direct Bubble competitor. The computer numbers are there, and with the OOC win over Texas A&M, they have to be a decided fifth in the ACC at-large pecking order due to the sweep of fellow Bubbler Virginia Tech. No matter what, they will be right on the cutline.
Clemson (21-10, 10-7 RPI 50 I SOS: 69)
Case For: Wins vs. Florida St., 2 vs. BC, Virginia Tech
Case Against: Losses at South Carolina, at UVA, at NC State
The Tigers gave Boston College a through ass-whooping, beating the Eagles for the second time and pushing them on the verge of an at-large bid. They are playing great basketball, and if the committee watched that game, they have to be impressed. While we arent big proponents of the "eye test", their recent performance has been impressive - a close loss at Duke, a win over Virginia Tech, and a complete demolition of Boston College. Depsite the three iffy losses, Clemson is almost assuredly going to be dancing, since even a loss to UNC cant hurt them.
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
Richmond (24-7, 13-3 RPI 55 I SOS: 138)
Case For: Wins vs. Purdue, VCU, A-10 record, 10-2 in last 12 games
Case Against: loss vs. Georgia Tech, SOS is weak
The Spiders beat Duquesne to finish up 13-3 in the A-10, but they need to avoid a bad loss in the conference tournament to keep from sweating out Selection Sunday. The win over Purdue continues to shore up the weak SOS and questionable loss to Georgia Tech, and the 5-6 top-100 record is fragile, as Seton Hall and Duquesne are barely above the necessary threshold. They face St. Louis/Rhode Island in the A-10 quarters, with a possible date with Temple looming in the semifinals. Beating Rhode Island should be enough, but a win over Temple will definitely put things on ice.
Big East
Bubble:
None
Big Ten
Bubble:
Michigan State (17-13, 10-9 RPI 49 I SOS: 13)
Case For: SOS, wins vs. Wisconsin, Washington, Illinois
Case Against: 13 (likely 14) losses, 9-12 vs. top-100
Michigan State survived Iowa to move closer to a bid. The Spartans are still looking at 14 total losses (assuming they dont win the Big Ten tournament). The wins are still decent, and 9 top-100 scalps help them stand out amongst the bubble pack. They will probably get in the dance based on name recognition alone. Why would the committee roll the dice with the Missouri States of the world when they can get mega-popular, brand-name Sparty into the tournament? Thus, one more win at the BTT should be more than enough..
Big XII
Bubble:
None
Conference USA
Bubble:
UAB (22-8, 12-4 RPI 30 I SOS: 67)
Case For: RPI, CUSA regular season champs, beat VCU OOC, 10-7 vs. top-100
Case Against: Who have they beaten? Lost in CUSA quarterfinals
Yikes. UAB lost to East Carolina in the CUSA quarterfinals and now will be sweating striaght through Selection Sunday. In a double-edged sword situation, the loss hurts but ECU consequently jumps into the top-100 giving UAB ten such conquests, and that also means the loss to the Pirates isn't considered "bad". Still, when there are questions about the quality of the conference you won, it wont help to lose to the eighth-best team. The computers love the Blazers, who sport an 10-7 record against the top-100, mostly earned by beating their CUSA bretheren. Their best OOC win was against VCU, who are a fellow Bubbler, but they got swept by Memphis. The regular season CUSA crown is their best argument at this point. They are lucky there is a weak bubble this year, as they are the very definition of paper champs right now.
Memphis (23-9, 11-6 RPI 34 I SOS: 47)
Case For: Sweep of UAB, win at Gonzaga
Case Against: Losses at SMU, at ECU, at Rice are mugly (and thats not a typo)
The Tigers swept UAB and Southern Miss, but they didnt win the conference and have lost two head-scratchers sandwiched around getting blasted by UTEP by 27 points. Although they look decent on paper, they have looked very shaky on the court lately. Their hopes depend on whether the committee believes their eyes or their computers. The bad losses may do the Tigers in barring a run at the conference tourney.
Mountain West
Bubble:
None
Pac-10
Bubble:
USC (19-13, 11-8 RPI 66 l SOS: 41)
Case For: Wins vs. UCLA, Texas, Arizona, @Washington
Case Against: Swept by Oregon, losses at TCU, vs. Bradley, @Oregon State
The Trojans ousted California to keep their hopes alive, but still have some work to do. If anything, theyve proven that they can beat anyone, but unfortunately they have proven that they can lose to anyone as well. As great as the wins are, the losses are equally horrific. They have won five of six, so they are trending in the right direction. But those losses - yikes, just yikes.
SEC
Bubble:
Georgia (21-11, 10-8 RPI 43 I SOS: 39)
Case For: RPI, wins over Colorado, UAB, Kentucky, at Tennessee
Case Against: Just 5-11 vs. top-100, swept by Alabama
The Bulldogs may be headed to the NIT with their second loss to Alabama in a week, but still are on the bubble because they have a ton of "good" losses. They have beaten UAB, Kentucky, and Tennessee, but the losses to the Tide probably show that the Bulldogs should not be in the field of 68. Now, the 5-11 vs. the top-100 record doesnt look so hot, even though nine of them are top-50 losses. Their best OOC are against bubble teams, and Tennessee (despite the computer numbers) lost to pretty much everyone at home this year. At the end of the day, there just aren't enough quality wins in this profile.
Alabama (21-10, 13-4 RPI 76 I SOS: 121)
Case For: Wins vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee, Two wins vs. Georgia
Case Against: 5-6 vs. top-100, losses to St. Peters, Iowa, Providence, Arkansas
You have to hand it to the Crimson Tide - they were on the ropes, and they have fought their way to the brink of an at-large bid. A second win over Georgia in a week gives the Tide their fifth top-100 win and knocks the Bulldogs off the cutline. The computer numbers won't impress anyone, but they are suddenly playing like a tournament team. Next up is a bid-sealing shot against Ole Miss or Kentucky in the SEC semifinals.
Others
Bubble:
St. Mary’s (22-8, 12-4 WCC RPI 43 I SOS: 112)
Case For: Wins vs. St Johns, at Gonzaga
Case Against: 4-7 vs. top-100, loss to San Diego
The loss to Gonzaga leaves St. Mary's in a vulnerable position, now reliant on other teams to leave enough room for them in the field, which is a risky proposition. They are closer to the cutline than most people seem to realize. The Gaels righted the ship after a devastating three game losing streak but are a very shaky 4-7 against the top-100, with only two true quality wins (St. John's in early November and at Gonzaga). Even though they are probably one of the 37 best at-large candidates, the committee has a couple of legit reasons (recent form, loss to San Diego) to keep them out of the field.
Missouri State (25-8, 17-4 MVC RPI 42 I SOS: 127)
Case For: Sweep of Wichita State, RPI, MVC regular-season champs
Case Against: 3-6 vs. top-100, SOS, no good OOC wins
The Bears won the regular season MVC title. That's the good thing. The bad thing is that the wins over Wichita State are two of their three wins against top-100 competition (the other was against tourney-bound Indiana State), and they have three sub-100 losses. Now that they need an at-large, they are a fringe candidate at best. The MVC may be a good conference, but when your best OOC win is Oral Roberts (#139), then you are probably headed to the NIT.
Utah State (26-3, 14-1 WAC RPI 18 I SOS: 122)
Case For: Record, RPI, win at St. Mary's
Case Against: One top-100 win
They are ranked - so they are good right? The truth is, nobody really knows. At least you can say that they are consistent, since they always beat the bad teams that they play. Please, for the love of God, win the WAC tournament so we don't have to talk about you anymore. Pretty please?
VCU (23-11, 14-7 CAA RPI 48 l SOS: 91)
Case For: Wins vs. George Mason, at ODU, vs. UCLA
Case Against: Lost four of five to close regular season, losses to Georgia State, South Florida and Northeastern
After a hard-fought loss to Old Dominion in the CAA final, VCU has been thrown back into the at-large pool. We aren't going to discount how good their performance in Richmond was, but losing your final three home conference games should doom you to the NIT. Couple that with three losses as bad as any fringe bubble candidate could have, and VCU should be a real longshot for an at-large. The Rams have some impressive top-50 wins to go with a win at Wichita State. Unfortunately, losing four of their last five to close out the regular season is probably too much to overcome for an at-large. Now that they need one, they will need the perfect storm of chalk conference tournaments to make their way towards the cutline.
(images via CNNSI)
