As you can see, there isnt much room left. Many of our Bubblers laced up their shoes yesterday to face off against some of the marquee names in college basketball and did what they have failed to do all season: come through in the clutch.
As a result, five teams are on the brink of earning an invite to the NCAA Tournament - Michigan State, Richmond, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Penn State are one win away from being in the tournament. Richmond, Clemson and Virginia Tech are in a unique position - they are facing teams already solidly in the Tournament, so will a loss even affect their chances? We fail to see how Clemson losing to North Carolina could hurt them, nor how a Virginia Tech loss to Duke would damage their cause. Their only issue is that there may be bid-stealers in the WAC or Atlantic 10.
Elsewhere, Alabama can punch their ticket with a win over Kentucky. Failing that, its a trip to the cutline. Memphis and UTEP face off for the Conference USA auto-bid, where only Memphis will have a realistic shot at an at-large if they need it.
Updates to come throughout the day.
UPDATE 2345
Penn State's win over Michigan State puts it solidly into the field of 68, with a closer examination coming tomorrow before they go in as a lock. Close(ish) losses to elite teams dont hurt Virginia Tech or Clemson yet, pending on tonight's Utah State outcome and tomorrow's crucial Atlantic 10 Championship game, where Dayton could burst an unfortunate team's Bubble.
Tomorrow afternoon will be our Selection Special, where we will choose who we think will make the field of 68. Approximate time for the posting will be 3 PM.
Locks (61): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, St. John’s, Connecticut, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Colorado, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, George Mason, Old Dominion (CAA), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Morehead State (Ohio Valley), Indiana State (Missouri Valley), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Gonzaga (WCC), Wofford (SoCon), St. Peter's (MAAC), Butler (Horizon), Oakland (Summit), Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt), Long Island (Northeast), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), Bucknell (Patriot), Boston University (America East), UC-Santa Barbara (Big West), Princeton (Ivy), Akron (MAC), Alabama State (SWAC), Hampton (MEAC), Memphis (Conference USA), Texas-San Antonio (Southland),
Near Locks (4): Penn State, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Available Bids (3)
Bubble (9): Boston College, UAB, USC, Georgia, Alabama, St. Mary’s, Missouri State, Utah State, VCU
Treading Water (4): UTEP, Harvard, Washington State, New Mexico
ACC
Bubble:
Virginia Tech (21-11, 11-8 RPI 61 I SOS: 75)
Case For: Wins vs. Duke, 2 vs. Florida State, vs Penn State
Case Against: Swept by UVA, loss at Georgia Tech, RPI, OOC wins are lacking
Even with the loss to Duke, Virginia Tech could be dancing if a couple of games go their way this evening. The Hokies beat Florida State in what may be the closest replay review in the history of college basketball. Derwin Kithcen's last second fade-away looked good...then it looked close...and then it looked like it was still in his hand... and then it was waved off. What looked like a crushing defeat turned into a welcome lifeline for a perpetually cursed team. Luckily they won, sincealmost all of the luster of the Duke win had vanished with consecutive losses to bubble teams. While they are clinging to one of the last at-larges right now, Championship Week craziness could cost them a place in the dance just like it did last season. The Hokies have eleven ACC wins, and dont want to set the precedent of being the first team with 11 ACC wins to miss the tourney, as they were when they have now twice missed the Dance with 10. Oh crap - forget I said that. But the opportunity is there - beat Florida State tonight, and Seth Greenberg and the Hokies will probably be dancing.
Boston College (20-12, 10-8 RPI 58 I SOS: 38)
Case For: Sweep of Virginia Tech, SOS, Win over Texas A&M
Case Against: Home loss to Yale, two losses to Clemson
Ouch - Boston College got smoked by Clemson and now must wait a lonnnnnnngggggg two days for Selection Sunday. The Eagles finished at 10-8 in the ACC, but with two important losses to Clemson, a direct Bubble competitor. The computer numbers are just OK, and they have a nice OOC win over Texas A&M. Having just one top-50 win may be the nail in their coffin. No matter what, they will be right on the cutline.
Clemson (21-11, 10-8 RPI 56 I SOS: 58)
Case For: Wins vs. Florida St., 2 vs. BC, Virginia Tech
Case Against: Losses at South Carolina, at UVA, at NC State
After controlling most of the game, Clemson lost a hearbreaker to UNC in overtime. Did they show enough this weekend? Most likely yes, but their computer numbers dont match the good team we saw on the court. The Tigers gave Boston College a through ass-whooping, beating the Eagles for the second time and pushing them on the verge of an at-large bid. They are playing great basketball, and if the committee watched that game, they have to be impressed. While we arent big proponents of the "eye test", their recent performance has been impressive - a close loss at Duke, a win over Virginia Tech, and a complete demolition of Boston College. Depsite the three iffy losses, Clemson is almost assuredly going to be dancing, since even a loss to UNC cant hurt them.
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
None
Big East
Bubble:
None
Big Ten
Bubble:
Michigan State (18-13, 11-9 RPI 39 I SOS: 9)
Case For: SOS, wins vs. Wisconsin, Washington, Illinois, Purdue
Case Against: 13 (likely 14) losses
Michigan State survived Iowa to move closer to a bid. The Spartans are still looking at 14 total losses (assuming they dont win the Big Ten tournament). The wins are still good, and 10 top-100 scalps help them stand out amongst the bubble pack. They will probably get in the dance based on name recognition alone. Why would the committee roll the dice with the Missouri States of the world when they can get mega-popular, brand-name Sparty into the tournament? Barring a slew of bid-stealers, Michigan State will be dancing.
Penn State (19-13, 12-9 RPI 39 I SOS 6)
Case For: 2 wins vs. Michigan State, Illinois, 2 vs. Wisconsin, 10 top-100 wins
Case Against: 13 (likely 14) losses, loss at home to Maine
What an incredible run for Penn State at the Big Ten tournament. The Nittany Lions, all but dead one week ago, are going to be Dancing, barring a shocking turn of events Sunday. A game against Ohio State cant hurt them, they are solidly in the field right now, and it looks like there will be plenty of room for them at the Dance. All it took was a horrifying win against Wisconsin and a complete butt-whooping of rival Michigan State. When bracketologists say "they need to make the conference final", they couldnt even dream of something as unlikely as what Penn State has given us this week.
Big XII
Bubble:
None
Conference USA
Bubble:
UAB (22-8, 12-4 RPI 30 I SOS: 67)
Case For: RPI, CUSA regular season champs, beat VCU OOC, 10-7 vs. top-100
Case Against: Who have they beaten? Lost in CUSA quarterfinals
Yikes. UAB lost to East Carolina in the CUSA quarterfinals and now will be sweating striaght through Selection Sunday. In a double-edged sword situation, the loss hurts but ECU consequently jumps into the top-100 giving UAB ten such conquests, and that also means the loss to the Pirates isn't considered "bad". Still, when there are questions about the quality of the conference you won, it wont help to lose to the eighth-best team. The computers love the Blazers, who sport an 10-7 record against the top-100, mostly earned by beating their CUSA bretheren. Their best OOC win was against VCU, who are a fellow Bubbler, but they got swept by Memphis. The regular season CUSA crown is their best argument at this point. They are lucky there is a weak bubble this year, as they are the very definition of paper champs right now.
Mountain West
Bubble:
None
Pac-10
Bubble:
USC (19-14, 11-9 RPI 67 l SOS: 43)
Case For: Wins vs. UCLA, Texas, Arizona, @Washington
Case Against: Swept by Oregon, losses at TCU, vs. Bradley, @Oregon State
The Trojans lost to Arizona, which leaves them in a dangerous position. They can no longer help themselves, and some of their Bubble competitors are still alive and posting impressive wins. Right now they will probably one of the last two in or out. If anything, theyve proven that they can beat anyone, but unfortunately they have proven that they can lose to anyone as well. As great as the wins are, the losses are equally horrific. They have won six of eight, so they are trending in the right direction. But those losses - yikes, just yikes.
SEC
Bubble:
Georgia (21-11, 10-8 RPI 43 I SOS: 39)
Case For: RPI, wins over Colorado, UAB, Kentucky, at Tennessee
Case Against: Just 5-11 vs. top-100, swept by Alabama
The Bulldogs may be headed to the NIT with their second loss to Alabama in a week, but still are on the bubble because they have a ton of "good" losses. They have beaten UAB, Kentucky, and Tennessee, but the losses to the Tide probably show that the Bulldogs should not be in the field of 68. Now, the 5-11 vs. the top-100 record doesnt look so hot, even though nine of them are top-50 losses. Their best OOC are against bubble teams, and Tennessee (despite the computer numbers) lost to pretty much everyone at home this year. At the end of the day, there just aren't enough quality wins in this profile.
Alabama (21-10, 13-4 RPI 76 I SOS: 121)
Case For: Wins vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee, Two wins vs. Georgia
Case Against: 5-7 vs. top-100, losses to St. Peters, Iowa, Providence, Arkansas
Getting handled by Florida wasnt the best way to end Alabama's at-large case. Still, they have come a long way. You have to hand it to the Crimson Tide - they were on the ropes, and they have fought their way to the brink of an at-large bid. A second win over Georgia in a week gives the Tide their fifth top-100 win and knocks the Bulldogs off the cutline. The computer numbers won't impress anyone, but they looked like a tournament team this weekend. It may not be enough, but the Tide are no longer a Bubble punchline.
Others
Bubble:
St. Mary’s (23-8, 12-4 WCC RPI 43 I SOS: 112)
Case For: Wins vs. St Johns, at Gonzaga
Case Against: 3-6 vs. top-100, loss to San Diego
The loss to Gonzaga leaves St. Mary's in a vulnerable position, now reliant on other teams to leave enough room for them in the field, which is a risky proposition. They are closer to the cutline than most people seem to realize. The Gaels righted the ship after a devastating three game losing streak but are a very shaky 3-6 against the top-100, with only two true quality wins (St. John's in early November and at Gonzaga). Even though they are probably one of the 37 best at-large candidates, the committee has a couple of legit reasons (recent form, loss to San Diego) to keep them out of the field.
Missouri State (25-8, 17-4 MVC RPI 42 I SOS: 127)
Case For: Sweep of Wichita State, RPI, MVC regular-season champs
Case Against: 3-6 vs. top-100, SOS, no good OOC wins
The Bears won the regular season MVC title. That's the good thing. The bad thing is that the wins over Wichita State are two of their three wins against top-100 competition (the other was against tourney-bound Indiana State), and they have three sub-100 losses. Now that they need an at-large, they are a fringe candidate at best. The MVC may be a good conference, but when your best OOC win is Oral Roberts (#139), then you are probably headed to the NIT.
Utah State (26-3, 14-1 WAC RPI 18 I SOS: 122)
Case For: Record, RPI, win at St. Mary's
Case Against: One top-100 win
They are ranked - so they are good right? The truth is, nobody really knows. At least you can say that they are consistent, since they always beat the bad teams that they play. Please, for the love of God, win the WAC tournament so we don't have to talk about you anymore. Pretty please?
VCU (23-11, 14-7 CAA RPI 48 l SOS: 91)
Case For: Wins vs. George Mason, at ODU, vs. UCLA
Case Against: Lost four of five to close regular season, losses to Georgia State, South Florida and Northeastern
After a hard-fought loss to Old Dominion in the CAA final, VCU has been thrown back into the at-large pool. We aren't going to discount how good their performance in Richmond was, but losing your final three home conference games should doom you to the NIT. Couple that with three losses as bad as any fringe bubble candidate could have, and VCU should be a real longshot for an at-large. The Rams have some impressive top-50 wins to go with a win at Wichita State. Unfortunately, losing four of their last five to close out the regular season is probably too much to overcome for an at-large. Now that they need one, they will need the perfect storm of chalk conference tournaments to make their way towards the cutline.
(images via CNNSI)
