Today, our journey comes to an end. As your Bubble team awaits its fate tonight, try and remember the good times of the year. Because when your name is not called, it will be almost impossible to keep the replays of the missed opportunities from the past season out of your head.
Yes, your team was one win away from Dancing. But keep in mind, they were also one or two losses away from you playing a nice, stress-free round of golf during the Selection Show. Count your blessings.
The time for talk is over. Please keep in mind that what we predict, isnt what we hope will happen, its what we think will happen. When the bracket is revealed, there is inevitably some BS involved. Thus, this is what the field will look like:
Locks (60): Duke (ACC), North Carolina, Florida State, Temple, Xavier, Richmond (Atlantic 10), Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, St. John’s, Connecticut (Big East), Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Kansas, (Big XII), Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, BYU, San Diego State (MWC), UNLV, Arizona, UCLA, Washington (Pac-10), Kentucky (SEC), Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, George Mason, Old Dominion (CAA), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Morehead State (Ohio Valley), Indiana State (Missouri Valley), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Gonzaga (WCC), Wofford (SoCon), St. Peter's (MAAC), Butler (Horizon), Oakland (Summit), Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt), Long Island (Northeast), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), Bucknell (Patriot), Boston University (America East), UC-Santa Barbara (Big West), Princeton (Ivy), Akron (MAC), Alabama State (SWAC), Hampton (MEAC), Memphis (Conference USA),Texas-San Antonio (Southland), Utah State (WAC)
Last Four Byes: Villanova, Penn State, Michigan State, Virginia Tech
Last Four In: Colorado, Clemson, Georgia, VCU
Last Four Out: USC, Alabama, UAB, St. Mary's
Next Four Out: Boston College, Missouri State, Harvard, UTEP
Last Four In
Colorado (20-13, 10-9 RPI 65 I SOS: 49)
The Buffaloes are in by virtue of their top-50 wins. In this environment, quality wins trump the weak SOS. Thank you, threep of Kansas State.
Clemson (21-11, 10-8 RPI 57 I SOS: 62)
The computer numbers dont come close to making the Tigers a sure inclusion, but unfortunately we have a feeling the committee will be impressed by the quality of their play in the ACC tournament.
Georgia (21-11, 10-8 RPI 48 I SOS: 40)
Ah, the Bulldogs. This year they will be the "quality loss" team, who will benefit from the fact that they beat a couple of good teams all while avoiding the bad losses. They probably don't deserve to be in, but we think they will make it.
VCU (23-11, 14-7 CAA RPI 50 l SOS: 85)
The committee is going to put one mid-major on the Bubble into the First Four and the one with the best overall resume is....VCU. Look at the numbers. Look at the tape. We are going on record now and making VCU this year's Selection Sunday shocker. Compare them to St. Mary's, Missouri State, USC and UAB. Out of this group, the Rams deserve to Dance.
Last Four Out
USC (19-14, 11-9 RPI 67 l SOS: 39)
After all the games have been played, USC's disjointed season was not enough to get the final at-large berths. The only thing that can save them is some sort of BCS conspiracy - which we arent ruling out.
Alabama (21-11, 13-5 RPI 82 I SOS: 114)
Recent form aside, it would be a historic reach for the Crimson Tide to be given an at-large. Outrage will surely follow, since everyone with a brain knows that they're clearly better than Georgia right now. Unfortunately, the Committee will look at November and December as well.
UAB (22-8, 12-5 RPI 31 I SOS: 78)
Not enough quality wins, and losing in the CUSA quarterfinals was a deathblow. If they get in, its a sign that the RPI still rules in the Selection Committee boardroom.
St. Mary’s (23-8, 12-4 WCC RPI 45 I SOS: 101)
And we think this is being generous. The Gaels could get in based on their name alone, which is saying something for a WCC team not named Gonzaga. So many people think they should be in, that its almost common knowledge that they have a good resume. They do not. We are big fans of St. Mary's, but they have just one top-100 win in the past four months. You name it - top-100, quality wins, lack of bad losses - the Gaels did not do enough to earn a bid.
Next Four Out
Boston College (20-12, 10-8 RPI 58 I SOS: 38)
The Eagles were undone by the Clemson blowout. The profile weakened significantly after they were done playing.
Missouri State (25-8, 17-4 MVC RPI 43 I SOS: 128)
Not enough quality wins to make a splash, although they had a great season. They (and the MVC in general) need to schedule better out of conference to avoid this fate in the future.
Harvard (21-6, 12-3 Ivy RPI 36 I SOS: 140)
Good team, decent resume, but they will fall just short.
UTEP (24-9, 13-6 Conference USA RPI 59 I SOS: 98)
We have to put someone else up here to fill out the line. They didnt challenge themselves all that much OOC, and it will cost them.
(images via CNNSI)
