A little bit of a late start on this year's Mid Major Preview/Predictions, so instead of a preview, we are just going to go ahead and call it a "Mid Major Observation".
So far this year, there has been some really solid basketball played by some of the NON-BCS teams in the college basketball world. Of course every year Gonzaga is good, but some of the other "usual suspects" appear to be down a bit this year. The CAA, with usual power teams like George Mason, VCU and Old Dominion appears to be down quite a bit from last year's all time high that saw all 3 CAA teams get into the NCAA tourney and saw GMU win a game, ODU take Butler to the last tenth of a second and VCU make the Final 4.
This year, however, those teams have suffered some key losses to teams like Vermont, Florida Int., Florida Atlantic, Seton Hall and Ga Tech, none of which are likely NCAA tourney teams. When you take into account the only other CAA team that looked like it had a chance, Drexel, completely crapping the bed, it is pretty safe to assume at this point that the CAA will revert back to it's old form as a 1 big league. Now that's not to say ODU, VCU and GMU might not be playing solid basketball by the end of the year and even be able to once again pull an upset off as a 11 or 12 seed in the NCAA tourney, it's just saying that because of the overall lack of quality of CAA OOC win's so far this season, an at-large just isn't in the cards this year.
Where an at-large is likely, however, where it didn't happen last year, is in the Missouri Valley Conference. This year, the MVC has played some very solid basketball to begin the season. Right now, Wichita State, UNI and Creighton are a combined 19-3 and all three have very good quality wins early in the season. OOC win's over UNLV, San Diego State and @ODU are all marquee caliber wins that will look very solid by the end of the year. But what really helps the MVC is that right now, only 2 teams in the entire league have losing records, Bradley and Southern Illinois and Bradley is only 3-4. The MVC is a combined 46-23.
A 67% win/loss record is amazing for a mid-major league, especially considering the MVC has played some damn tough games thus far. If the MVC doesn't get at least 2 teams this year, especially with the CAA being a 1 bid league, it will end up being a travesty. If Creighton doesn't win the MVC tourney, I think by the end of the season it will be a lock that at least 2, possibly 3 teams get in.
The other two potential at-large teams from conference that normally never get 2 bids are Iona and Harvard. I've watched both of these squads play several times and they are VERY impressive basketball teams. Iona has a single loss thus far this year, to a very good Purdue team, by a single point on a neutral court in a game in which Iona had a 2 point lead with 30 seconds left. While right now they lack a "marquee win", a 26 point win over Maryland and a 2ot win over St. Joe's will both be decent rpi wins by the end of the year. They have a 4 game stretch coming up where they play @ 6-1 Denver, @ 5-1 Marshall and @ 6-2 Richmond followed by another tough road game at Vermont. If they manage to go 3-1 during that stretch and put up a very good conference record in a fairly weak MAAC this year, they could very well be an at-large team by the end of the season. Scott Machado, Michael Glover, Momo Jones and company will be a VERY tough out in the NCAA tourney.
The other team from a usually 1 bid conference to keep an eye on is Harvard. The Crimson are 8-0 so far this season and have some quality neutral court wins over Florida State and Central Florida. They have a HUGE matchup coming up against UCONN on the road. Win that and they are pretty much a lock for a top 25 ranking and an at-large bid should they need it, but I don't see any way they don't win the Ivy league going away. They are legit and should very well be fighting for a 6 or 7 seed by the end of the year, possibly even higher. Tommy Amaker has a big, strong and athletic squad that has big time potential in the NCAA tourney.
The other team I wanted to mention here is a Horizon League team, but no, it's absolutely not the one you are thinking. While Butler has really struggled thus far this year after losing Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard, the Cleveland State Vikings have flourished with their ace player, Norris Cole, having moved on. Butler is currently 4-4 and pretty much out of contention for an at-large, but Cleveland State is 8-1 with a HUGE 13 point victory @Vanderbilt that will be a big time marquee win at the end of the season. They also have a win on a neutral court over Boston Universtiry (solid win) and a huge win @ MAC favorite Kent State. Vandy and Kent State are big time resume building wins. They only have 1 loss thus far, a neutral court setback against Hofstra, a team that could end up being half way decent in the CAA by the end of the year. In order for Cleveland State to garner a potential at-large bid later in the year should they need it, I think they need to win a potentially tricky road game @ South Florida, win the Horizon regular season and split at least 1 or 2 games against Butler, a team that has been a tough nut for them to crack most years. Do that and Cleveland State could be dancing this year.
Well that just about wraps up the mid-major preview. There are some other mid-majors you should all keep your eye on this year as well, maybe not at-large caliber teams, but certainly teams that should they win their conference tourney and make the NCAA tournament, said teams would absolutely be capable of winning a game or two and doing some damage to your NCAA tourney bracket. Some teams to keep an eye on this year are Belmont (a "usual suspect" with an entire squad full of 3 point shooters), the aforementioned Kent State (rough and tumble squad that won at West Va. and is also capable of shooting the 3), St. Mary's (they can always pull an upset with their 3 point shooting) and a real darkhorse for mid-major of the year this season, Murray State. The Racers have solid wins already over San Francisco and Southern Miss on a neutral court and a great blowout win over Dayton. Their next game is a HUGE test @ Memphis and it would give them a big time road/marquee victory they could point towards come NCAA tourney selection show time. An 8-0 start thus far, combined with that Memphis win, would be a big step. The definitely need that win though because after that game, there isn't much heft left on the schedule. Regardless, watch out for Murray State this year and in the NCAA tourney should they make it because Isaac Cannon is one of the best players you've probably never heard of. He's averaging 20 a game, shooting 52% from the field and an incredible 51% from behind the arc (19-36)! The Racers will absolutely surprise someone in the NCAA tourney and very well could surprise Memphis on the road this week.
Enjoy the season and keep an eye on what is a very solid "Mid-Major" NCAA tournament bubble field this year!
