Last year we took a long, hard look at the nearly impossible odds that low-major conference teams (in that case, Murray State) face in their quest to be awarded an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.  A year before that, we threw out the possibility of an Ivy League team (Cornell) getting an at-large.  Amazingly, with the early runs of Murray State (12-0, #22 AP) and Harvard (9-1, #25 AP), we are now facing the real possibility that both could happen in the same season.  Unreal.

First off, Murray State has stormed into the national polls with its gaudy record, lofty RPI (#6), win over likely NCAA squad Dayton and upset of Memphis on the road.  The OVC is a rapidly improving conference (witness: wins in consecutive NCAA Tournaments), but Murray State is poised to be one of the strongest teams the conference has ever produced.  With their non-conference schedule almost complete, save for a high-profile Bracket Busters matchup, the only question that remains is how many OVC losses the Racers can withstand before putting their NCAA spot in jeopardy.  With two quality wins in their back pockets, we can surmise that they could easily afford 2-3 OVC losses before the conference tournament and still keep their place in the field.  Their RPI will almost certainly drop by playing - and potentially losing - OVC games, but even two bad losses wont send their RPI much lower than the 25-35 range.  With 3 or 4 total losses, Murray State will punch their tickets to the tourney.

Harvard won the Battle 4 Atlantis title, beating UCF and Florida State along the way.  The loss at Uconn is understandable, but a tricky stretch of games with Florida Atlantic, Boston College and St. Joseph’s remains before league play begins.  If they get through that unscathed, the Crimson should be NCAA-bound barring a complete collapse in the Ivy League.  Remember, without a conference tournament, an Ivy League team in the at-large pool would need to have at least two league losses (one in regular season play and then one in the de-facto tie breaker championship game with the co-champion).  Harvard with three total losses should be dancing, but they have to be careful about their RPI taking a huge hit and giving the committee an excuse to screw them over.