Here it is folks, the first official Bubble Watch of the 2011-2012 season. A few things have become clear after only a very short time: the only legitimate at-large candidate in the CAA is VCU, the Pac-12 blows, and Virginia Tech is in great shape for an at-large. Just kidding - they're right on the bubble where they belong. There will be plenty of movement in the coming weeks, so many of the teams you see here today will end up falling off the face of the Earth.
This year, you need to be in the top 100 of the RPI to be considered - that means you, crappy BCS conference teams with inflated records. Also, you need to have a winning record overall even if your RPI and strength of schedule is outstanding - that means you, Long Beach State.
ACC
Locks: Duke, North Carolina
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Virginia Tech (11-3, 0-0 RPI 37); Virginia (12-1, 0-0 RPI 66); NC State (10-4, 0-0 RPI 54);
Treading Water: Miami (8-4, 0-0 RPI 64); Florida State (8-5, 0-0RPI 76)
Atlantic 10
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Xavier (9-4, 0-0); Temple (9-3, 0-0 RPI 25); Dayton (10-4, 0-0 RPI 35); St. Joseph’s (10-4, 0-0 RPI 38); St. Louis (11-2, 0-0 RPI 60);
Treading Water: Massachusetts (11-3, 0-0 RPI 79)
Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Connecticut, Seton Hall
Near Locks: Marquette (11-2, 0-0 RPI 21)
Bubble: West Virginia (10-4, 1-1 RPI 27)
Treading Water: Pittsburgh (11-3, 0-1 RPI 74)
Big Ten
Locks: Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Wisconsin (12-3, 1-1 RPI 51); Minnesota (12-2, 0-1 RPI 18); Illinois (12-3, 1-1 RPI 22); Northwestern (10-3, 0-1 RPI 34); Purdue (12-3, 2-0 RPI 43); Michigan (10-2, 1-0 RPI 55)
Treading Water: None
Big 12
Locks: Missouri, Baylor
Near Locks: Kansas State (11-1, 0-0 RPI 31); Kansas (10-3, 0-0 RPI 52)
Bubble: Texas (10-3, 0-0 RPI 72)
Treading Water: Oklahoma (10-2, 0-0 RPI 57); Iowa State (10-3, 0-0 RPI 77)
Conference USA
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Southern Miss (11-2, 0-0 RPI 17); Memphis (8-5, 0-0 RPI 38); Marshall (8-4, 0-0 RPI 74); UCF (9-3, 0-0 RPI 95)
Treading Water: None
Missouri Valley
Locks: None
Near Locks: Creighton (11-2, 1-1 RPI 21)
Bubble: Northern Iowa (9-4, 0-2 RPI 24); Wichita State (9-3, 1-1 RPI 28); Missouri State (8-5, 2-0 RPI 60); (9-3, 1-1 RPI 62)
Treading Water: None
Mountain West
Locks: UNLV
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Colorado State (9-4, 0-0 RPI 36); San Diego State (11-2, 0-0 RPI 45); New Mexico (11-2, 0-0 RPI 49)
Treading Water: None
PAC-12
Locks: None
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Arizona (10-4, 1-0 RPI 46); California (12-3, 2-0 RPI 56); Stanford (12-2, 2-0 RPI 82)
Treading Water: Oregon (10-4, 1-1 RPI 79); Washington (8-5, 2-0 RPI 83)
SEC
Locks: Kentucky
Near Locks: Vanderbilt (9-4, 0-0 RPI 31); Alabama (11-3, 0-0 RPI 22)
Bubble: Florida (11-3, 0-0 RPI 53); Mississippi (9-4, 0-0 RPI 42); Mississippi State (13-2, 0-0 RPI 49); LSU (10-3, 0-0 RPI 67)
Treading Water: None
West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga
Near Locks: St. Mary’s (11-2, 2-0 RPI 23)
Bubble: BYU (10-4, 1-1 RPI 64)
Treading Water: None
Others
Locks: Murray State, Harvard
Near Locks: None
Bubble: VCU (10-3, 1-0 CAA RPI 66); Oral Roberts (11-4, 3-0 Summit RPI 68); Iona (10-3, 2-0 MAAC RPI 30); Davidson (7-4, 0-0 SoCon RPI 34); Wagner (10-3, 1-1 NEC RPI 48); Cleveland State (11-3, 2-1 Horizon RPI 63)
Treading Water: Kent State (9-3, 0-0 MAC RPI 84); Belmont (8-5, 2-0 A-Sun RPI 72); Middle Tennessee State (12-2, 2-0 Sun Belt RPI 80); Norfolk State (9-4, 2-0 MEAC RPI 51); Lamar (7-5, 0-0 Southland RPI 45)
