As always, teams must be in the top-100 of the RPI to be considered.
ACC
This is a four-bid league after UVA outlasted NC State. The rest of the conference needs to make a major move to get into the at-large mix.
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State
Near Locks: None
Bubble: NC State (15-7, 4-3 RPI 62)
Treading Water: Miami (12-7, 3-3 RPI 52)
Atlantic 10
Seriously, Dayton? Losing at home to Rhode Island is an absolute killer. Pair that with the other WTF loss to Miami (Ohio), and the committee may have serious questions about the Flyers come Selection Sunday.
Locks: Temple
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Xavier (14-7, 5-3 RPI 46); Dayton (14-7, 4-3 RPI 61); Massachusetts (16-5, 5-2 RPI 56); St. Louis (15-5, 4-3 RPI 42)
Treading Water: St. Joseph’s (13-9, 3-4 RPI 55); LaSalle (16-6, 5-2 RPI 66)
Big East
The losses keep piling up for the top of the conference, yet the RPI’s keep holding up. That sounds a lot like last year’s overrated crop of 10 tournament teams.
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette
Near Locks: Connecticut (14-6, 4-4 RPI 29); West Virginia (15-8, 5-5 RPI 17); Louisville (17-5, 5-4 RPI 28)
Bubble: Notre Dame (14-8, 6-3 RPI 75); Seton Hall (15-6, 4-5 RPI 32)
Treading Water: South Florida (12-9, 6-3 RPI 75)
Big Ten
Indiana still has enough big wins to get into the tournament at this point. Three straight losses sends Illinois back to the bubble, although they are still in good shape.
Locks: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Purdue (15-7, 5-4RPI 41); Minnesota (16-6, 4-5 RPI 38); Illinois (15-6, 4-4 RPI 37)
Treading Water: None
Big 12
This is looking like a four or five-bid league, maximum. Texas and Oklahoma have missed chances to jump on the bubble and are running out of time to make a statement.
Locks: Missouri, Baylor, Kansas
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Kansas State (15-5, 4-4 RPI 41) Iowa State (15-6, 5-3 RPI 50)
Treading Water: Texas (13-8, 3-5 RPI 63); Oklahoma (13-7, 3-5 RPI 70)
Conference USA
The Southern Miss-Memphis showdown could ensure the Golden Eagles a bid to the Dance. Meanwhile, UCF’s two big wins over Memphis and Uconn are fading fast.
Locks: None
Near Locks: Southern Miss (17-3, 6-1 RPI 11)
Bubble: Memphis (15-6, 6-1 RPI 27)
Treading Water: UCF (14-6, 5-3 RPI 73)
Missouri Valley
Wichita State stumbled at Drake and still lack a couple top-100 wins to add to a pretty good resume.
Locks: Creighton
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Wichita State (17-4, 9-2 RPI 31)
Treading Water: None
Mountain West
Locks: UNLV, San Diego State
Near Locks: None
Bubble: New Mexico (16-4, 3-2 RPI 44); Colorado State (13-6, 3-2 RPI 18)
Treading Water: Wyoming (15-4, 3-2 RPI 80)
PAC-12
Yikes - this league freaking sucks.
Locks: None
Near Locks: California (17-5, 7-2 RPI 30)
Bubble: None
Treading Water: Colorado (12-7, 6-3 RPI 78); Arizona (14-8, 5-4 RPI 85); Oregon (15-6, 6-3 RPI 75); Stanford (15-6, 5-4 RPI 86)
SEC
This week on 48 Hours Mysteries: Why is Mississippi State ranked?
Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Mississippi State (17-5, 4-3 RPI 35); Alabama (14-7, 3-4 RPI 36); Mississippi (14-7, 4-3 RPI 40); Arkansas (15-6, 3-3 RPI 60)
Treading Water: None
West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Near Locks: None
Bubble: BYU (16-6, 6-3 RPI 48)
Treading Water: None
Others
Locks: Murray State
Near Locks: Harvard (17-2, 4-0 Ivy RPI 43)
Bubble: Oral Roberts (20-4, 12-0 Summit RPI 49); Iona (17-5, 9-2 MAAC RPI 53); Davidson (14-5, 9-1 SoCon RPI 67); Long Beach State (14-6, 9-0 Big West RPI 36); Middle Tennessee State (19-3, 9-0 Sun Belt RPI 47); Cleveland State (17-4, 8-2 Horizon RPI 52); Nevada (16-3, 7-0 WAC RPI 59)
Treading Water: Wagner (17-4, 8-2 NEC RPI 77); VCU (18-5, 9-2 RPI 84); Ohio (16-4, 5-2 MAC RPI 71); Bucknell (16-6, 7-0 Patriot RPI 69); Loyola (MD) (16-5 9-2 MAAC RPI 83)
